Moderators: wdolson, MOD_War-in-the-Pacific-Admirals-Edition
That model anticipates extension of social discipline through AUGUST [X(]ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
From that MSN article about revised projections (linked again: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-c ... li=BBnb7Kz):
"The April 5 update predicts the need for 140,823 total hospital beds and 29,210 ICU beds at the peak of the outbreak. Those numbers are down 121,269 and 10,517, respectively." [emphasis added]
Wow.
By August every member of this forum will be stark raving mad. Except me. [:D]ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
That model anticipates extension of social discipline through AUGUST [X(]ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
From that MSN article about revised projections (linked again: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-c ... li=BBnb7Kz):
"The April 5 update predicts the need for 140,823 total hospital beds and 29,210 ICU beds at the peak of the outbreak. Those numbers are down 121,269 and 10,517, respectively." [emphasis added]
Wow.
...
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
That model anticipates extension of social discipline through AUGUST [X(]ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
From that MSN article about revised projections (linked again: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-c ... li=BBnb7Kz):
"The April 5 update predicts the need for 140,823 total hospital beds and 29,210 ICU beds at the peak of the outbreak. Those numbers are down 121,269 and 10,517, respectively." [emphasis added]
Wow.
Still, it's good news in the short run
ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
It's DC. Nobody knows what a percentage is
[8|]
If only 15% of people are infected, that's nowhere near close enough for herd immunity... which means that more than 15% of people will become infected unless the virus is eradicated. Fat chance of that.
Currently no country in the world has a 15% infection rate that we know of, and if they had it would be beyond catastrophic. The US currently is at a 0.11% infection rate according to tests taken. Spain is the highest for large countries (1 million plus) at 0.30% of it's total population, according to tests. Even using some experts estimates of a 10x known infection rate, that is considerably lower than 15%!!
I hope that's a not so dumb headline of the day in the other direction, and he's wildly overestimating so people take this seriously, and that such a high rate doesn't end up happening.
ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
Key Coronavirus Model Now Predicts Many Fewer U.S. Deaths
2 hrs ago
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-c ... li=BBnb7Kz
"A Sunday update of a prominent COVID-19 forecasting model suggests that fewer lives will be lost during the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak than previously thought."
"The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. through early August. When the model was last updated, on April 2, it predicted 11,765 deaths more deaths, for a total of 93,531."
"The April 5 update predicts the need for 140,823 total hospital beds and 29,210 ICU beds at the peak of the outbreak. Those numbers are down 121,269 and 10,517, respectively."
"The model also revised downward the prediction for the number of ventilators needed at the height of the outbreak. It now predicts the need for 18,992 ventilators, down from 31,782."
"Crucially, it also assumes the continuation of social distancing until early August, well beyond the April 30 guidelines currently set forth by the White House."
ORIGINAL: durnedwolf
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
That model anticipates extension of social discipline through AUGUST [X(]ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
From that MSN article about revised projections (linked again: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-c ... li=BBnb7Kz):
"The April 5 update predicts the need for 140,823 total hospital beds and 29,210 ICU beds at the peak of the outbreak. Those numbers are down 121,269 and 10,517, respectively." [emphasis added]
Wow.
Still, it's good news in the short run
Mmmmmm Hmmmm.
My college (we have campuses from Edwards up to Mammoth Lakes) is also preparing for this lockdown to be extended into July/August. In California, the governor's lockdown is basically staying at home until further notice.
ORIGINAL: durnedwolf
I'm gunna stop using deodorant as a deterrent towards those that would attempt to invade my social distancing space. I think this should work effectively against those approaching from down-wind... [:D]
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
A wild guess on my part: Once the experts (medical professionals, mainly) estimated that there were enough bed and equipment to handle needs for any local outbreaks, we'd see a return to work.
Careful, you might be in violation of the Geneva Convention rules on chemical warfare.ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: durnedwolf
I'm gunna stop using deodorant as a deterrent towards those that would attempt to invade my social distancing space. I think this should work effectively against those approaching from down-wind... [:D]
Also a good excuse to conserve water usage and cut back on showering [:D]
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
USSAmerica, that is why I did this:
Lokasenna
This user is on your "block" list and the message has been blocked.
Click here to unblock this user and view this post.
Joe
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: durnedwolf
I'm gunna stop using deodorant as a deterrent towards those that would attempt to invade my social distancing space. I think this should work effectively against those approaching from down-wind... [:D]
Also a good excuse to conserve water usage and cut back on showering [:D]
ORIGINAL: durnedwolf
I'm gunna stop using deodorant as a deterrent towards those that would attempt to invade my social distancing space. I think this should work effectively against those approaching from down-wind... [:D]
; Julia Child
ORIGINAL: durnedwolf
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
A wild guess on my part: Once the experts (medical professionals, mainly) estimated that there were enough bed and equipment to handle needs for any local outbreaks, we'd see a return to work.
That makes sense. At the end of the day, I think most folks hope for some normalcy to return - theatres, restraints, sports games, etc.
I but Amazon is doing very good business right now...
; Julia Child ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
ORIGINAL: durnedwolf
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
A wild guess on my part: Once the experts (medical professionals, mainly) estimated that there were enough bed and equipment to handle needs for any local outbreaks, we'd see a return to work.
That makes sense. At the end of the day, I think most folks hope for some normalcy to return - theatres, restraints, sports games, etc.
I but Amazon is doing very good business right now...
Around here, most of the larger employers are still working. If not all of them.
As mentioned elsewhere a rough rule of thumb is if a newspaper has consistently won Pulitzer prizes year, after year, after year there is every reason to expect quality, accurate reporting. The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Associated Press, The Los Angles Times and The Wall Street Journal lead the league are good places to start. I'll also add The Orlando Sentinel, the Miami Herald, The Boston Globe and The Atlantic. The BBC is a good source as are many British Newspapers but some of them do seem to wear their bias on their sleeves a bit.here are some tools to help. We use this with students to get them thinking about the categories of bias and misrepresentation that might be occurring with some news sources, and it's pretty useful to get an idea of hw they stack up. When you search the icon appears near a news site and (usually) gives this rating page on rollover. Unfortunately due to the now cluttered landscape of blogs, privately owned and operated "news" sites and other areas of acquiring information online, not all are yet rated.
If anyone knows another method please post a link.
ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
As mentioned elsewhere a rough rule of thumb is if a newspaper has consistently won Pulitzer prizes year, after year, after year there is every reason to expect quality, accurate reporting. The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Associated Press, The Los Angles Times and The Wall Street Journal lead the league are good places to start.here are some tools to help. We use this with students to get them thinking about the categories of bias and misrepresentation that might be occurring with some news sources, and it's pretty useful to get an idea of hw they stack up. When you search the icon appears near a news site and (usually) gives this rating page on rollover. Unfortunately due to the now cluttered landscape of blogs, privately owned and operated "news" sites and other areas of acquiring information online, not all are yet rated.
If anyone knows another method please post a link.
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
John, I know you and most folks believe that in good faith. I don't believe that. I could give substantial reasons why but it wouldn't be suitable for an AE forum in any way. I'd be glad to share with you privately. You'd disagree with my thoughts on the particular issue but might understand why I don't credit those sources (with some exceptions).
ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
As mentioned elsewhere a rough rule of thumb is if a newspaper has consistently won Pulitzer prizes year, after year, after year there is every reason to expect quality, accurate reporting. The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Associated Press, The Los Angles Times and The Wall Street Journal lead the league are good places to start.here are some tools to help. We use this with students to get them thinking about the categories of bias and misrepresentation that might be occurring with some news sources, and it's pretty useful to get an idea of hw they stack up. When you search the icon appears near a news site and (usually) gives this rating page on rollover. Unfortunately due to the now cluttered landscape of blogs, privately owned and operated "news" sites and other areas of acquiring information online, not all are yet rated.
If anyone knows another method please post a link.
; Julia Child
