OT: Corona virus

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It was tongue in cheek, of course. The failure of the headline writer to use the obvious term "veterinarian" created some confusion when I first saw a link to the headline. It made me wonder if the story was about doctors staying at home to care for pets. Why not simply say "veterinarians"?

Blasphemer!



[:D]

"veterinarians, veterinarians, veterinarians!"

[Canoerebel]

[To MakeeLearn:] Well, her character Mammy didn't receive an income during her years of servitude. After the war she probably got room and board and maybe some allowance or minimal pay.

That image will simply inflame things without any possible productive reason that I can think of (or did I simply miss it?). Similarly, any discussion of a minimum basic income, though arising from the present crisis, is sure to veer off into the political minefield we've just gotten through (sorta).

I'm not hall monitor but the good residents of the forum have done a pretty good job of self-regulating the past few days. I'd avoid the topic and redact the image if I could.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[To MakeeLearn:] Well, her character Mammy didn't receive an income during her years of servitude. After the war she probably got room and board and maybe some allowance or minimal pay.

That image will simply inflame things without any possible productive reason that I can think of (or did I simply miss it)? Similarly, any discussion of a minimum basic income, though arising from the present crisis, is sure to veer off into the political minefield we've just gotten through (sorta).

I'm not hall monitor but the good residents of the forum have done a pretty good job of self-regulating the past few days. I'd avoid the topic and redact the image from this site if it was in my power to do so.

She is the wisest character in the movie, and her looks says it all. That is all that needs to be said.

[Canoerebel]

She does speak with some wisdom in the movie but most folks here haven't seen it and, even if they have, the overarching issues would eclipse that.

[Canoerebel]

[Not directed at anybody in particular, including recent posts, but rather on my just completed click-train to another site]

For the first time today, I ventured into the main page virus thread. It's locked, I think as of today. It seems to have veered into a permanent state of acrimony.

It was a rough weekend here, most certainly for me. But the community as a whole has rallied and done a remarkably good job of getting back on point and trying not to inflame things. Pretty cool to see. Here's hoping this thread stays open for business.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[Not directed at anybody in particular, including recent posts, but rather on my just completed click-train to another site]

For the first time today, I ventured into the main page virus thread. It's locked, I think as of today. It seems to have veered into a permanent state of acrimony.

It was a rough weekend here, most certainly for me. But the community as a whole has rallied and done a remarkably good job of getting back on point and trying not to inflame things. Pretty cool to see. Here's hoping this thread stays open for business.

warspite1

Permanent state? Not really, I think everything pretty much cooled down as the only real point of 'controversy' - the ridiculous 'death rate' was being pretty much just ignored. Then today it wasn't and things got a little heated despite most people trying to keep it light. But there wasn't the volume of name calling found here over the last few days.

Not really sure what actually got it locked, but it doesn't appear to have been the exchanges as such - here is the explanation:

I'm going to lock this up. It feels like it has outlived its usefulness, and then some...

Feel free to start a new thread if you like, but let's try and keep it a little less fractious, and avoid the non-science conspiracy bunkum.


It's good to see this thread back on track.

[MakeeLearn]

I see nor think anything disparaging about that pic. It's my heritage, my family.



For those that do not know, in this scene, Mammy has just told Scarlett a TRUTH that Scarlett did not want to hear. And Mammy is "UH-HA I told you!"


If the moderator wants to remove it.... he will.

[obvert]

I'd seen the IMHE data on the Guardian today. It certainly got my attention. I certainly hope they're wrong, and I'm somewhat less worried after Neil Fergusen from Imperial College disputed the results.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-predicts

One of the things I don't understand is the very big jump in deaths over the next few days. I guess though we'll get a quick look at whether this is modelled correctly.

Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.

The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected.

Today was warm here, but the very large park we bike to for our once a day allowance of exercise had acres of room. Everyone there today we saw kept 4-5 meters distant at closest and nearly all were actively exercising. One dog got very close and wanted us to throw his ball. We declined.

We hadn't been able to get an Amazon order for the past few weeks but my wife was up early and got a slot for a Fresh delivery tomorrow. The less we need to go to a store the better. We've both worn masks for a few weeks, and more and more people are now. I also have seen a lot more walking down the middle of roads, eschewing the sidewalks to distance from anyone else moving the other way.

One other thing that's stopped. The Eastern European guys who even up to last week were hanging out and drinking cans of beer on a cut-through path about 50 meters from our back garden are no longer hanging out there. It that demographic is taking it more seriously I think something is working here.

[JohnDillworth]

Looks like NYC is under-counting, by a wide margin, the number of dead from Corona-19. It's a big city and typically 20 people die at home every day. In the last few weeks, over 200 people a day are dying at home. Coincidence? I think not. Anyway, if you die at home the body is not tested for Corona-19. So the actual body count may be significantly higher than the reported number. Not sure of other locals policies but I suspect they are similar. At home deaths are not being counted so the 1% mortality rate (so-far) is probably artificially low

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

I see nor think anything disparaging about that pic. It's my heritage, my family.



For those that do not know, in this scene, Mammy has just told Scarlett a TRUTH that Scarlett did not want to hear. And Mammy is "UH-HA I told you!"


If the moderator wants to remove it.... he will.

It's just sometimes important to give context to images placed without reference near unrelated information. [;)]

That's the photo teacher in me talking.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

I see nor think anything disparaging about that pic. It's my heritage, my family.

For those that do not know, in this scene, Mammy has just told Scarlett a TRUTH that Scarlett did not want to hear. And Mammy is "UH-HA I told you!"

If the moderator wants to remove it.... he will.

warspite1

Why would anyone object to a picture of the wonderful Mammy?

We're all grown ups we all know (or should know) our histories. It is what it is. Different, less enlightened times sadly. But learning about, and remembering, the bad is how we (hopefully) learn from our mistakes. We shouldn't brush things under the carpet as though we're all a bunch of millenials who can't handle real life.

The saddest thing in the 21st century is that the picture should even warrant further comment.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

MacArthur went behind Truman's back to the Press and got his Hero of Inchon ass fired...with good reason.

Not quite the same circumstances in any way, shape or form, is it?

No, MacArthur needed to be removed. He was veering toward a messianic state. I think the Captain of Roosevelt felt compassion toward his crew and knew he would get sacked but did it anyway. It is noble in a way and understandable..but still wrong. You can't have officers disobeying orders because it is a difficult ask. He essentially declared to the world that an entire USN carrier battle group was out of action. Suppose the CCP decides THIS is the time to invade Taiwan based on that information (not likely of course)? Or the mullahs of Iran decide to stir up shit right now (more likely) and they miscalculate badly?

Well, it also looks like you can't have a Nav Sec losing the confidence of every person in the chain of command below them either.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[To MakeeLearn:] Well, her character Mammy didn't receive an income during her years of servitude. After the war she probably got room and board and maybe some allowance or minimal pay.

That image will simply inflame things without any possible productive reason that I can think of (or did I simply miss it?). Similarly, any discussion of a minimum basic income, though arising from the present crisis, is sure to veer off into the political minefield we've just gotten through (sorta).

I'm not hall monitor but the good residents of the forum have done a pretty good job of self-regulating the past few days. I'd avoid the topic and redact the image if I could.

I'd agree with you here.

Not least because it's likely to be a discussion that's based off of political orientation rather than any sort of empirical evidence.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

And if Covid-19 doesn't get you, maybe Chernobyl will. A forest fire near the reactor site has raised radiation levels in the air 16X normal. I hope they do a better job of protecting their firefighters this time!

warspite1

For those with some expertise in this area, I am curious to know how the fire in the forest around Chernobyl has raised the radiation levels.

Thank-you.

I only know from the mini-series "Chernobyl" (which appeared to be well-researched) that the contamination from the fire at the reactor fell on tens of thousands of square kilometers. The Soviets later sent 350,000 army personnel with Geiger counters to locate hot-spots, and bury them in situ by turning over the soil that the radiation was on. They could not ensure the tree foliage was clean and the buried bits could easily have got into the tree in the ground water. So now when the trees burn, the ash contains the radioactive material.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

And if Covid-19 doesn't get you, maybe Chernobyl will. A forest fire near the reactor site has raised radiation levels in the air 16X normal. I hope they do a better job of protecting their firefighters this time!

warspite1

For those with some expertise in this area, I am curious to know how the fire in the forest around Chernobyl has raised the radiation levels.

Thank-you.

I only know from the mini-series "Chernobyl" (which appeared to be well-researched) that the contamination from the fire at the reactor fell on tens of thousands of square kilometers. The Soviets later sent 350,000 army personnel with Geiger counters to locate hot-spots, and bury them in situ by turning over the soil that the radiation was on. They could not ensure the tree foliage was clean and the buried bits could easily have got into the tree in the ground water. So now when the trees burn, the ash contains the radioactive material.

warspite1

Makes sense - thanks

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson breathing without a ventilator in intensive care, Number 10 says
Boris Johnson's spokesman says the prime minister was "stable" overnight and remains in "good spirits".

7 April 2020 18:04, UK

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11969904


"The prime minister is breathing without a ventilator and has not been diagnosed with pneumonia, Downing Street has said.

His spokesman said Boris Johnson was "stable" overnight and remains in "good spirits".

Mr Johnson spent the night in intensive care after his symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, worsened and he suffered breathing difficulties.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I just went back and skimmed through the first five pages of this thread. Lots of interesting reading there. Early projections and analysis from rank amateurs, thoughtful forumites and outright experts. Some things gotten right and some wrong. Back then, the mortality figured used was 2% in this thread (and, from memory, 3% to 5% in many sources). Right now that figure seems to be mostly at 1%. If RangerJoe's source is right, and if things continue improving, in the end this may be much less than 1%. There was some early discussion of that possibility in this thread, at a time when it seems hopelessly optimistic.

1% has been pretty close for Manitoba (on very small numbers), and I think you are right - the early % death rate is somewhat high because there are so many vulnerable seniors and immune-compromised people affected. In places like Italy and New York the virus will have a declining population of vulnerable people and the % will drop.

[MakeeLearn]

New York's Coronavirus Deaths May Level Off Soon. When Might Your State's Peak?

April 7, 20204:50 PM ET


https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... ate-s-peak

"New York was nearing 5,500 COVID-19 deaths as of Tuesday. It is expected to be the hardest hit state, in terms of raw numbers.
The model projects between 12,000 and 22,000 deaths in the state, with daily deaths peaking on Thursday.
That amounts to between 60 and 110 deaths for every 100,000 New Yorkers, putting New York among the worst hit states per capita as well."

[MakeeLearn]

When death from coronavirus is a matter of interpretation
Updated: April 1, 2020


https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00401.html


"Asked why Italy had a high rate of deaths due to the coronavirus, government officials there said it was because they were using a broader definition for such deaths than other countries, counting any victims who had tested positive even if other illnesses were at fault.

In Illinois, officials announced last weekend that an infant died after testing positive for the virus, but said they were still determining the cause of death. And in Florida, two deaths were listed as virus-related in mid-March, then later removed from the official count.

Incomplete data and inconsistencies come as no surprise to medical examiners, coroners, and physicians who fill out death certificates for a living. Even under normal circumstances, determining the cause of death is an inexact science. With the surge in deaths from a cause no one had heard of three months ago, ironclad certainty may, for now, be even more elusive."

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm not going to get political here. I will say that some of us do understand the difference between the Government of China and it's history of abuses and people who look to be from an East Asian country. There are a lot of people who don't and who equate the two things. They hear these comments and they act on them against real people.

We don't need to support the use of terminology that could be interpreted as biased against a nation and its people, in spite of its government's culpability in this crisis.

I agree. I would have chosen a different way to call them on their BS.

Here is the thing. Trump never calls me for advice. [;)]

I don't really care what it's called. SARS-2, Covid-19, SARS-Cov, Bat Soup virus, Pangolin Cioppino Virus, SARS-Wuhan, SARS Part Deux

The media is making too much out of it. I sent him a Tweet on his Twitter thingy but he didn't respond. While we are at it we should get rid of the term "German Measles" and "Norwegian Scabies", "Maarburg Virus", Ebola, West Nile Virus, MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) etc. etc.

We need a new name for the "Chernobyl disaster" and the "San Francisco Earthquake" as well. Not sure the people of Cleveland really appreciate having the Browns named after them either.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My email to family last Tuesday included this assessment: "A few days ago, a major university in the UK revised its mortality estimate for that country from 500,000 to 20,000. Similarly, the US projections are currently 100k to 200k mortality (as widely reported in the news). That’s down by 10x what had been projected a few weeks ago. I think US estimate will drop more – probably a lot more. In the end, I expect (as a layman, an optimist without any credentials whatsoever) that the US death toll will be something in line with a seasonal flu outbreak – perhaps 20k to 40k over the next three or four months. Most mortalities will be the elderly and those with exacerbating conditions (obesity) or health issues (diabetes, etc.)."

At the time, the news and information coming at us was almost uniformly negative. Things were bleak and seemed to be spiraling continually bleaker. But it was the first time there seemed to be enough reliable data to hazard a guess.

(My family has strictly adhered to countermeasure requirements in place in our jurisdictions.)

I agree that the numbers of deaths after the peaks have passed will likely be below projections. But this thing will have a long tail with many bumps along the path, so when do we call it "over" and add up the cumulative death count? People returning to work and traveling will bring back some level of infection and just how much is really conjecture at this point. By the end of April we should have some good data from countries that have started to go back to work.