OT: Corona virus

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


Well, it also looks like you can't have a Nav Sec losing the confidence of every person in the chain of command below them either.

No, that would be bad. If he made inflammatory or vindictive comments that was unprofessional.

Trump can fire the Sec of Navy [:)]

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus pushing Australians to the brink, with young families, students, lining up for emergency support
Updated about an hour ago



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-08/ ... k/12124994


"Long lines of homeless people standing two metres apart snake down a suburban street in Darwin. It is just after 7:00am and it is already 35 degrees Celsius. The street is packed.

There is just one gate open — marked with yellow tape to enforce social distancing — at the St Vincent de Paul homelessness shelter. "

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There has to be a high level of security in the military. Must be.

Agreed, the security breach was a cardinal sin.

The part that troubles me is that no one higher up the chain seemed to be able to arrange what he finally had to do - put in at Guam. Once he was there and word was out, they made ground arrangements quickly. That suggests that the Pentagon was so obsessed with not letting anyone find out about their predicament that they wanted to keep the CVN at sea.

Sounds like the Soviets at Chernobyl - not wanting to let the secret out in a situation that could not be covered up for long. In the meantime, more and more people were being affected and higher numbers of deaths would be a statistical probability.

[Canoerebel]

Like probably every person here, I prefer accurate numbers. Before all is said and done, scientists (and whatever the heck it is that Lokasenna does again - analyst of statistics?) will probably zero in on good numbers.

I think, however, at the moment thee is some very useful merit in numbers if they are developed consistently even with some flaws.

So, if we counted mortality in Atlanta on March 12 and came up with 50 and again the same way each day thereafter and ended the long string with an additional 74 on April 7, that would be of some statistical usefulness, presumably a lot.

I think so.

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Looks like NYC is under-counting, by a wide margin, the number of dead from Corona-19. It's a big city and typically 20 people die at home every day. In the last few weeks, over 200 people a day are dying at home. Coincidence? I think not. Anyway, if you die at home the body is not tested for Corona-19. So the actual body count may be significantly higher than the reported number. Not sure of other locals policies but I suspect they are similar. At home deaths are not being counted so the 1% mortality rate (so-far) is probably artificially low

[JohnDillworth]

only know from the mini-series "Chernobyl"

Nice piece of work that mini series. Entertaining as hell and educational to boot. Really, really, well done

[JohnDillworth]

I prefer accurate numbers

Agreed, I don't think we will get really good numbers for years. Once the statistical anomalies are all added up you will get better numbers. New Jersey just reported a nursing home that had 22 deaths in the last week, in house. None of those deaths right now are in the stats. Actual numbers don't really mean much right now. As you say, consistent numbers from a controlled source are important because we can use them for meaningful comparisons and trends. In other news I have a co-worker test positive. He works on the same floor and we travel in the sames spaces. As he is on a different shift we have not had personal contact in 2 weeks but the other director I switch days with had recent contact. We are both meticulous about had washing, gloves and masks so I think we should be OK. We have maybe 30 people out of 1,800 in the agency working and even then on split shifts so there should not be much chance for cross contamination. Still, lots of open offices and conference rooms so I'm moving to a different place tomorrow.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There has to be a high level of security in the military. Must be.

Agreed, the security breach was a cardinal sin.

The part that troubles me is that no one higher up the chain seemed to be able to arrange what he finally had to do - put in at Guam. Once he was there and word was out, they made ground arrangements quickly. That suggests that the Pentagon was so obsessed with not letting anyone find out about their predicament that they wanted to keep the CVN at sea.

Sounds like the Soviets at Chernobyl - not wanting to let the secret out in a situation that could not be covered up for long. In the meantime, more and more people were being affected and higher numbers of deaths would be a statistical probability.

Once the carrier put in at Guam, it was in a static position and not mobile. Easier to target and destroy. Once word got out about the readiness state, it just made it worse. Most of the US Navy at sea should be relatively young and healthy. I think that the Captain sort of panicked.

[RangerJoe]

I think that part of the initial high death rate was due to lack of knowledge of the proper treatment. If steroid use is normal for severe pneumonia and the use of steroids is now known to be contraindicated, that could have lead to a lot of deaths. Now that there are at least two workable treatments and at least one preventative step that has an 80% effectiveness rate, the deaths rate should lower.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There has to be a high level of security in the military. Must be.

Agreed, the security breach was a cardinal sin.

The part that troubles me is that no one higher up the chain seemed to be able to arrange what he finally had to do - put in at Guam. Once he was there and word was out, they made ground arrangements quickly. That suggests that the Pentagon was so obsessed with not letting anyone find out about their predicament that they wanted to keep the CVN at sea.

Sounds like the Soviets at Chernobyl - not wanting to let the secret out in a situation that could not be covered up for long. In the meantime, more and more people were being affected and higher numbers of deaths would be a statistical probability.

Once the carrier put in at Guam, it was in a static position and not mobile. Easier to target and destroy. Once word got out about the readiness state, it just made it worse. Most of the US Navy at sea should be relatively young and healthy. I think that the Captain sort of panicked.

BBfanboy - I think that's a very apt comparison. "What is the cost of lies?"

Is that better or worse than a carrier at sea with impaired effectiveness and sailors seriously ill and possibly dying?

The assumption of sailors being young and healthy is fine for you to make, but given the size of the crew there's a high likelihood of fatalities.

The question then is what is the bodycount that you find acceptable to keep the secret?

[Cap Mandrake]

This social isolation thing is putting a LOT of stress on families who have children with developmental disabilities. The kids go nuts when their routine is changed and the family is all crammed together inside the house.

[MakeeLearn]

New data on New York coronavirus deaths: Most had these underlying illnesses; 61% were men
7 AP 2020

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 960151001/

"ALBANY, N.Y. – The majority of New York’s more than 4,700 deaths due to coronavirus were among men, and 86% of all deaths were among people who had underlying illnesses, such as hypertension and diabetes, new state data shows.

The statistics released late Monday offered the latest glimpse into how the rapidly spreading virus has impacted New York and made it the epicenter for COVID-19 in the nation.

Of the 4,758 deaths in New York since the first on March 14, 61% were men and 39% were women, the state Department of Health reported on its new data portal.

In addition, 63% of the deaths were among those age 70 and older, while 7% of the cases were those 49 and younger.

And 4,089 of those who died had at least one other chronic disease, the records showed:

The leading underlying illness was hypertension, which showed up in 55% of the deaths.
Next was diabetes, which was diagnosed in 1,755 deaths, or about 37% of the cases.
Other top illnesses found in those who died from coronavirus were hyperlipidemia; coronary artery disease; renal disease and dementia.

[MakeeLearn]

In N.Y.C., the Coronavirus Is Killing Men Twice as Often as Women

More men also are infected than women, and they are hospitalized more frequently, new data show. A similar pattern was seen in China.
April 7, 2020, 6:29 p.m. ET

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/heal ... k-men.html

"In its inexorable spread across New York City, the coronavirus is exacting a greater toll on men than women. Not only are men infected in greater numbers, new data show, but they are also dying at nearly twice the rate of women."

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NO COMMENT

[witpqs]

Another example of preparation not maintained.

How New York City’s Emergency Ventilator Stockpile Ended Up on the Auction Block

[Canoerebel]

Reading back through the thread and came across a 3/1/20 map that now seems remarkably antiquated.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's a map showing tallies in the World as a whole, as of 3/1/20 (see upper right) and USA (left).

I've been following this map since a Forumite posted a link to it two or three days back.

Two days ago, the USA had 40-something cases and no deaths. Yesterday it was 60-something and 1 death. Today 71 and 1 death.

That is a linear rather than geometric progression, if I'm using the terms correctly. If that's true, that's encouraging! But we don't know yet if the testing is accurate or thorough or if many new cases are missed. If so, we could see geometric increases, as time goes on.

Let's hope it remains linear.

[Canoerebel]

A lot of mortality in New York today. A number of other states were notably higher than in recent days. And yet, the mortality total is currently 200 less than projected (subject to additions in the remaining hour before Worldometers changes to the 8th).

Fluctuations are expected, of course, yet this is yet another day in which the total is meaningfully less than the projection (but not as rosy as 700 less yesterday).

Here's hoping that trend continues and gains momentum.

[CaptBeefheart]

Cap Mandrake: You forgot Japanese Encephalitis.

Very early on I read a piece in which the author said this looked like it would have a 50% higher mortality rate than flu, meaning it would come in at about 0.15%. That still looks good. If I can dig that up I'll provide a link.

Regarding isolation: On the way in to work in a taxi I noticed a large group of smokers outside the Cigna Building, one of many large office buildings in downtown Seoul. Being hard to toke on a lung dart through a mask, they of course were barefaced and as close together as they usually are. This is happening outside all large office buildings (my building, being a bit smaller, collects the smokers on the fire escape).

My observation is that people will bust the lockdown sooner or later, especially if they don't see a benefit or if they see the arbitrary application of enforcement. The powers that be should either plan on letting people free fairly soon or they should get going on developing a Stasi-like apparatus. Since most of us live in democracies, the first option might work better. I have a cousin in DC who does Covid testing. If she were in charge, the whole country would be on lockdown, even East Hogshed County, Minnebraska. I get that medical professionals want to reduce the intake of new patients, but there has to be a nod to concepts of liberty and the right to earn a living. Keep that in mind whenever an MD talking head talks about all the sacrifices we have to make.

One more tidbit: I actually heard from Agoda yesterday that this is about the only market in the world in which they are seeing a surge in hotel bookings. I actually plan to take my family to the East Coast of Korea in the next two or three weeks. By the time I come to an agreement with the missus, room prices will probably be back to normal.

Always look at the bright side of life.

Cheers,
CB

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Another example of preparation not maintained.

How New York City’s Emergency Ventilator Stockpile Ended Up on the Auction Block

Some people always have a better way to spend the money but when they need help, they expect others to have the foresight that they did not. When the help does not come, then the complaints start.

[Cap Mandrake]

East Hogshed County, Minnebraska

[:D]

[witpqs]

A doctors opinion on governor's deciding if patients can get certain drugs for COVID-19 treatment.
https://reason.com/2020/04/07/doctors-not-politicians-ought-to-decide-whether-off-label-drug-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-is-appropriate-for-covid-19-patients/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reason%2FArticles+%28Reason+Online+-+All+Articles+%28except+Hit+%26+Run+blog%29%29

[witpqs]

Under ordinary circumstances, sure. In these circumstances the administrative weasels should be spanked for doing less than commending her.

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-nurse-bought-protective-supplies-for-her-colleagues-using-gofundme-the-hospital-suspended-her#182360