OT: Corona virus

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

China will emerge from the coronavirus crisis stronger than the U.S., experts warn
March 28, 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china ... 2020-03-24

"The Chinese are in a much stronger position than they have been coming out of any recent global crisis,” Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, told MarketWatch.

“They own most of the global medical supply chain. They’ve basically contained the virus through technology-powered, authoritarian surveillance, and they’ve leveraged this success by providing aid to Europe and emerging markets,” in the fight against COVID-19.

Even as China’s economy has taken a large hit from the outbreak, and will continue to suffer from falling global demand as it spreads throughout Europe and the United States, the country does appear to be opening for business, with the city of Wuhan — where the outbreak began in December — scheduled to lift its lockdown next week. "

In the short run that is true because we are at least 2 months behind but there is going to be a global price to pay for China

[Canoerebel]

UK projections revised down substantially.

The likelihood of this was discussed right here a few hours ago.

[MakeeLearn]

US military researchers call for use of privateers against China

10 Apr, 2020

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/militar ... inst-china

"The United States should encourage the use of privateers to fight Chinese aggression at sea, according to a pair of articles in magazine produced by the US Naval Institute.

The reports – titled “Unleash the Privateers!” and “US Privateering Is Legal”, and published in the April issue of Proceedings – suggest the US government issue letters of marque – a commission authorising privately owned ships (privateers) to capture enemy merchant ships.

The authors – Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Brandon Schwartz, a former CSIS media relations manager – said that China’s larger merchant fleet represented an asymmetric vulnerability with the US, and an attack on China’s global trade would undermine its entire economy and threaten its stability."

[Canoerebel]

US projection just revised, nudging up by about 1k.

Monday a.m. it dropped 10k; Wednesday a.m. it dropped another 20k; today it nudged up 1k.

Seemingly that indicates the model is currently handling data well.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't mean finished in that sense. I mean new cases down to nil or next to it. States or portions thereof will gradually ease restrictions around then - or as soon as NYC is doing okay.

NC is not projected to peak with new cases until April 26th. That's just over 2 weeks from now. If the peak is followed by a smooth, traditional bell curve in NC it means things will be the same as today on or around May 15th. That's not anywhere near over.

All of those projections rely, of course, on well behaved social distancing obedience. I strongly suspect that the compliance level a month from now will be significantly lower than today. I just don't see any reason to believe this (meaning severe restrictions on movement) will be a short term event.

[Canoerebel]

The Univ. of Washington projections are bullish for NC - not zeroing out on May 1, but low and nearing zero a few days later.

[USSAmerica]

How about predictions for new cases in NC?

[USSAmerica]

The extremely good news for NC is that the predicted peaks should not overwhelm the hospital and ICU capacity. We're fortunate to have a large number of hospitals in the region.

[Canoerebel]

We're going to have to ease off on restrictions gradually. Like Denmark and Austria are about to do (and they're efforts will serve as good pathfinder studies).

If new cases are down near zero, and if the situation is under control in most/all metro areas, folks will insist on a sensible easing of restrictions to get restarted. (How long would folks go with few or no new cases? Not long.)

The key will be the ability, or perceived ability, to spot hot spots and jump on them with plenty of medical capacity to handle things.

And if the virus continues to target mostly older folks and folks with underlying issues, that's part of the map to how we get where we need to be.

[Canoerebel]

That's included in the modeling, Mike. The zeroing out of mortality in May is a reflection that new cases drop in tandem.

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

How about predictions for new cases in NC?

[Canoerebel]

The projection for New York. Note the level of mortality by May 1.

Many states (not all) are showing similar results. At or near zero by May 1.

[Canoerebel]

Georgia was just revised, bumping up in projections for (1) peak day - now 17 days away instead of 12; and (2) mortality - now 336/M, which is something like 100 over where it was.

I think the NC and NY graphs, posted above, also reflect recent revisions, meaning they may be current. But other states may have been just updated or in the process of doing so. Check states of interest, here: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.a ... e=146&key=

[Canoerebel]

Just noticed the U. Washington projects today to be the peak day in the US. See chart posted on previous page.

[JohnDillworth]

I don't mean finished in that sense. I mean new cases down to nil or next to it. States or portions thereof will gradually ease restrictions around then - or as soon as NYC is doing okay.

As long as we stay vigilant. I mean the whole country. I fear whats going to happen is we are going to try and open the country up again too soon and this is going to flare up again. I not only fear that, I fear that is likely. The only way out I see is to have a antibody test and test EVERYBODY, or at least everybody that wants to mingle in polite society. We can stop, start, fuss, think we know better but that is the only certain way out.....or at least until we have a vaccine. So you take a test, you get some sort of proof, you are clear to go to a place where, and this is where it gets funny......someone checks you for your certificate. Counterfeits are the least of our problems. This country has an independence streak that is going to be impossible to overcome. The Government taking your blood, issues certificates and keeping records? Can't see that really working. OK, plan B, keep things locked down until we get a vaccine. Vaguely possible but no guarantee you can make a vaccine for this. Heck, the pneumonia vaccine is fairly recent and they were looking for that a 100 years ago. Even if possible best case is 12-18 months and then you have to manufacture billions of doses .........so plan B is not terrific. So now we are up to plan C........Heard immunity. That will absolutely work, hell, it's going to happen anyway. But at what cost? Sorry, having a perfectly shitty shift but I'm really struggling to see whats next and be happy about it. And then there is the economy

[Canoerebel]

Hey, we're pulling for you here (you'd see if you had time to scroll through 8k posts).

[Canoerebel]

We're going to have to balance things and come to decisions that may not be perfect. If new cases are low/zilch, if we monitor carefully for hot spots and re-institute full countermeasures when they occur, if the affected medical community could handle those, and if the most vulnerable population is those of certain categories (aged, complications, etc.), we're going to have to ease restrictions and resume things.

That's why Denmark, Austria (and possibly Italy, from what I've heard) will be so important to our understanding over coming weeks.

[Canoerebel]

A quick spin through the Univ. of Washington site suggested that there were revisions to projections for the US and the states today.

Due to time constraints, I've only looked at about 20 states. Quick glances at those suggested that there weren't major changes for NY, NJ or California, either for total mortality or for peak day. That's good!

In the southern states, there were some revisions. Many of them had peak days pushed further into the future (darn it). A number of them dropped in total mortality. Georgia got bumped the wrong way in both categories.

Since we discussed southern states yesterday, here's my quick notes (total mortality and then mortality/Million:

Tennessee: 612; 90/M
South Carolina: 572; 112/M
Alabama: 431; 88/M
Georgia: 3564; 336/M
Florida: 3999; 186/M
Mississippi: 407; 135/M
North carolina: 416; 40/M
Kentucky: 933; 307/M
Louisiana: 1,125; 245/M
Virginia: 830; 98/M
Arkansas: 199; 66/M

Take Arkansas, for example. If there are 199 total mortality; if cases per day drops to zero; if the 199 killed are high proportion elderly and co-morbid; if Denmark, Austria and others show that easing restrictions doesn't result in massive flair ups; if Arkansas medical community and emergency folks are ready to monitor hot spots and have capacity to handle them; and if the population understands countermeasures will be re-instated to handle hot spots...it would be hard to keep that state in lock down.

This assumed gradual easing, in all likelihood. Not, "Hey, lets go back to normal in fifteen days."

[JohnDillworth]

Hey, we're pulling for you here (you'd see if you had time to scroll through 8k posts).

yeah you check out for a day and your a hundred post behind. I'm feeling the love, thanks

[Canoerebel]

We love JohnD!

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Nearly 90% of People Hospitalized for COVID-19 Have Underlying Conditions, Says CDC
3 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... li=BBnb7Kz


These numbers are similar to JohnDillworth' post yesterday.



"For weeks, the world has been inundated with information about the COVID-19 pandemic. While cases continue to rise and researchers learn more about the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), most data has lacked a certain specificity needed to ensure that people take this illness seriously.

But on Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was able to give a closer look at exactly who is most affected by COVID-19—and its findings underscore the importance of the preventive measures we've all been taking.

The highest rates of hospitalization occurred in those ages 65 and older.

In a new study published for the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers found that the majority of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 have preexisting conditions—about 90% of patients, or nearly all, had one or more underlying conditions.

The most common, per the CDC, include
hypertension (49.7%),
obesity (48.3%),
chronic lung disease (34.6%),
diabetes mellitus (28.3%),
and cardiovascular disease (27.8%)."

Do you know how this and the previous post compare to Influenza mortality rates?

Given that ~60,000 people don't die from the flu in less than 6 months: higher.