OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

This is an apt description of where we go from here, IMO.

The source is The Blade, which I'm not familiar with: https://www.thehour.com/news/article/Re ... 195921.php

[RangerJoe]

If you read the link about Dr Fauci that I posted, it does have a part about what to do next. How about a universal influenza vaccine and a universal corona virus vaccine. Both are doable. Another article that I read, but I did not remember which one it was, indicated that one fourth of the people in the world have been exposed to TB. That vaccine can also give some immunity against other diseases.

That, and having strategic stockpiles of necessary equipment and medicines, including releasing some before it gets too old and replacing it.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure what you mean, but hindsight is always better than foresight of course.

If you mean, "What do we do next?" That was discussed in here at length a few days back, with lots of different viewpoints. It was an interesting discussion. Capt. Beefheart's post just above kind of encapsulizes the train of thought that you have to move forward at some point. As I posted in here about a week ago, to me that comes when mortality drops to about 0 per day and the medical communities have the capacity to handle flair ups. Ease restrictions, protect the most vulnerable, and move forward.

OK I'll put it another way. This virus (in its current form) will go one of three ways. It will either be eradicated (like smallpox), controlled in the 'first world' but not elsewhere due to health inequalities (rubella/HIV) or become endemic worldwide (influenza). Whichever direction you choose there will be a rough transition point where it goes from its current point - a worldwide epidemic - to its 'stable point' in the general spectrum of disease. I think it will have reached that point by late 2021/early 2022. I am interested in projections like the U. Washington are putting out in terms of how we are managing this potentially first wave of cases. I don't see any utility from their models in terms of where we will be in 2021/22.

I think that is an entirely different question dependant on the actual infection rates compared to reported cases. If half the US/Europe has already been infected then we are home and dry almost already. If it is 25% then we still have a way to go but can probably get by going back to normal with additional protections to the most vulnerable. If it is 10% then we have a very long and hard road to travel - although fundamentally I am completely optimistic that even in that worst case scenario we will come through the other end in good shape compared to the very worst worldwide pandemics (Black Plague/Spanish Flu) and in a more localised sense compared to the worst of man-made atrocities in the 20th century.

[Canoerebel]

Nobody's going to lock down for two years, of course. That's why accurate projections are critical to understanding where we are and where we could be heading. That's our base line. Using that and other information we determine how to proceed at the lowest risk possible. There will be risk and there will be deaths but we don't really have a choice.

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure what you mean, but hindsight is always better than foresight of course.

If you mean, "What do we do next?" That was discussed in here at length a few days back, with lots of different viewpoints. It was an interesting discussion. Capt. Beefheart's post just above kind of encapsulizes the train of thought that you have to move forward at some point. As I posted in here about a week ago, to me that comes when mortality drops to about 0 per day and the medical communities have the capacity to handle flair ups. Ease restrictions, protect the most vulnerable, and move forward.

Zero deaths per day is ridiculous, especially when all the evidence points to calling any death due to COVID-19, no matter the pre-existing condition(s). It seems all the yelling and screaming about more ventilators was just that - there was no shortage. What's needed is replacement crews for the overworked medical folk - doctors, nurses, EMTs, etc.

[CaptBeefheart]

Mayo Clinic just laid off a bunch of people. Whether those people find work elsewhere will tell us if there's a medical personnel shortage in the U.S.

Medical tourism has also been hit hard here. My wife's hospital has lost a fair amount of revenue that used to come from Russians and Arabs.

Of the 25 new cases in Korea yesterday, 16 came from the airport. Most or all of those are returning Koreans. That's one way to keep the numbers up.

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

Lots of different ideas as to when and how but it's going to happen.

This article presents some of Governor Cuomo's thoughts, which cover many of the same ideas chewed over in here the past week.

Link to story: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... spartanntp

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Mayo Clinic just laid off a bunch of people. Whether those people find work elsewhere will tell us if there's a medical personnel shortage in the U.S.

Medical tourism has also been hit hard here. My wife's hospital has lost a fair amount of revenue that used to come from Russians and Arabs.

Of the 25 new cases in Korea yesterday, 16 came from the airport. Most or all of those are returning Koreans. That's one way to keep the numbers up.

Cheers,
CB

I think that the Mayo Clinic and other health care systems that laid people of because of the postponement of elective surgeries.

[warspite1]

Some relaxation in Spain. Some non-essential workers are being allowed back to work. It will be very interesting to see what, if any, effect there is going to be. I believe some Italian shops are to open too.

[Canoerebel]

Spain reported 280 deaths today. The drop there has been remarkably sharp. Lowest mortality since March 20. Higher than projected by U. Wash. but well within the margin of error.

For some reason, Spain's mortality/day is dropping relatively quickly compared to Italy, where the struggle has been really tough.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Spain reported 280 deaths today. The drop there has been remarkably sharp. Lowest mortality since March 20. Higher than projected by U. Wash. but well within the margin of error.

For some reason, Spain's mortality/day is dropping relatively quickly compared to Italy, where the struggle has been really tough.

warspite1

Indeed. No doubt the analysis and theories about why this should be so will be done in due course - but in the meantime all eyes are on any country that is relaxing their lockdown.....

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I know that Austria and Denmark decided about nine days ago to gradually ease restrictions, beginning this week (IIRC). We referred to them here as "pathfinders" - dropping behind enemy lines and setting beacons that we can follow.

It was mentioned that other countries would also begin easing some measures soon, including Italy.

[witpqs]

Analysis of this corona virus might be getting even more difficult.

China stifles coronavirus research in apparent bid to control narrative, analysts say

[Ian R]

Late daily report:

As at 3:00pm on 13 April 2020, there have been 6,359 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 46 new cases since 3:00pm yesterday.

It is expected, however, that with the end of the easter lockdown, testing numbers, and new cases will increase.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Hydroxychloroquine trial for COVID-19 begins amid political debate
Researchers aim to get clinical data on unproven treatments Trump has promoted.
4/10/2020

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04 ... cal-trial/

It seems that I am getting a lot of:

"502 Bad Gateway
nginx/1.16.1"

But only on the matrixgames.com/forums. [:@]

Hydroxychloroquine is not effective for treating coronavirus, according to small trial

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04- ... trial.html

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sammy, given the level of scrutiny in place in the US, anyone who dies under any circumstances is likely being tested and counted. That is true whether they die in a hospital or at home or in a hotel. Coroners and other officials strive to assign an accurate cause of death in the US. I don't think that's changed. In fact, it's probably more likely given the spotlight on the coronavirus.

I don't share your confidence in this conjecture.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Reading the carefully articulated thoughts contributed by folks here gives a distinct impression that some are relying on the media for a sense of what's going on in the US. That's understandable but it's leading to grave misperceptions. The raw data and the projections by apparently reputable organizations seem to paint a much different picture. As noted a few days back, I'm thankful this forum worked to create a picture of what's going on. We got it righter sooner than the media. Sometimes dramatically so.

Do they, though?

In your post prior to this you mention that projections don't call for big outbreaks moving forward - those projections assume that social distancing measures remain in place through August. Without the distancing, case numbers will pop back up. I don't know what news stories other folks are reading, but the ones I've been reading have been very clear on those two points.

There is also further concern that areas that have been slower to get infections and/or slower to implement distancing measures will act as a reservoir for the virus and result in further, unnecessary hot spots of infection or reemergence of hot spots in areas where it had previously been tamped down.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right, but most people do go. They go if they have a broken toe or a high fever or gunshot wound or a laceration. I see no reason the great majority wouldn't go if having serious coronavirus symptoms. Cap Mandrake and others are more likely to know for certain, but that's my experience here in Georgia and vicinity and anecdotally around the country.

Regarding post-mortem testing there has been one case that I know of. More importantly, as noted above coroners and others have a duty to assign an accurate cause of death. If in NYC emergency conditions prevail so that testing can't be done yet it will be done later - from the bodies or preserved specimens, I'd guess. Most places are not that overwhelmed, however, so likely have the capacity to handle things as they occur. It wouldn't be surprising if they're temporarily having to let standards slide in NYC but it would be a surprise in most other places - North Carolina, for instance.

As stated previously, technically correct. However, your experience in Georgia and anecdotal evidence does not seem to be representative.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/269138/ame ... -cost.aspx

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sammy, given the level of scrutiny in place in the US, anyone who dies under any circumstances is likely being tested and counted. That is true whether they die in a hospital or at home or in a hotel. Coroners and other officials strive to assign an accurate cause of death in the US. I don't think that's changed. In fact, it's probably more likely given the spotlight on the coronavirus.

I don't share your confidence in this conjecture.

Agreed. Accurate determination of cause of death is not as simple as would appear, and there's often a considerable time lag in order to reconcile the medical and government records.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Mayo Clinic just laid off a bunch of people. Whether those people find work elsewhere will tell us if there's a medical personnel shortage in the U.S.

Those people would almost certainly remain near where they are currently living, not flow throughout the entire US.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sammy, given the level of scrutiny in place in the US, anyone who dies under any circumstances is likely being tested and counted. That is true whether they die in a hospital or at home or in a hotel. Coroners and other officials strive to assign an accurate cause of death in the US. I don't think that's changed. In fact, it's probably more likely given the spotlight on the coronavirus.

I don't share your confidence in this conjecture.

Agreed. Accurate determination of cause of death is not as simple as would appear, and there's often a considerable time lag in order to reconcile the medical and government records.

I don't even mean accuracy in determining the cause of death.

I mean bothering in the first place.