OT: Corona virus

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From Swiss Media Group: "In a serological pilot study, German virologist Hendrick Streeck comes to the interim result that the lethality of Covid19 is at 0.37% and the mortality (based on the total population) at 0.06%. These values are about ten times lower than those of the WHO and about five times lower than those of Johns Hopkins University."

If that's true, Chickenboy's thoughts way back on February 26 were on target.

Perhaps, but this is with the most extreme public health interventions in the history of the planet and the West is only about 2 months into this.

[Canoerebel]

New Jersey continues to drop quickly and to come in under Univ. of Wash. projections. Today's mortality 93 (210 projected).

So good news from the key tri-state area. Both NY and NJ are showing noteworthy declines (and CT came in beneath projection yesterday).

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

More good news from the UK today (in context of the overall pandemic and bearing in mind what each number represents). Daily mortality dropped a bit, to 717, far under the projected 1,535 by U. Wash. (margin of error 671 to 3,263). It seems very likely that U. Wash. will revised its projection downwards shortly from the 37k currently in place.

Why?

If the observed mortality (which will be different from the unknown true mortality) is within MoE, what would be the justification for revision? Seeing as you seem to be an authority on the U of Wash model, you seem a good place to start.

[Canoerebel]

There's been three revisions for the US and each state in the past eight days, and one for the UK. It seems that Univ. of Washington updates the models frequently, feeding in new data (and possibly tweaking methods?) This makes sense. Since their models consistently over-project mortality in the US and UK, newer runs correct for that.

[Canoerebel]

Love the snarky sarcasm of "you seem to be an authority...." Relax with some cookies and milk.

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Angela Merkel faces pressure to ease lockdown and reopen schools as Germany's daily Covid-19 death count drops to 126 and cops are attacked with stones and iron bars while trying to enforce social distancing
13 April 2020

The irony here being that the cops are being attacked with "social distance" weapons, not with brawls and fistfights.

[btd64]

Good news, I tested negative after a tough night of shortness of breath and severe cough. It was my cpap that almost did me in....GP

[Canoerebel]

That is good news, General Patton. Do you have to self-quarantine or are you in the all-clear?

[btd64]

3 or 4 days or until the meds start to work on my lung infection....GP

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: btd64

3 or 4 days or until the meds start to work on my lung infection....GP

That was some serious pucker-factor waiting on that result!

[btd64]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: btd64

3 or 4 days or until the meds start to work on my lung infection....GP

That was some serious pucker-factor waiting on that result!

The Covid19 nose test came back in about an hour. The 3 to 4 days is for my apparent lung infection....GP

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: btd64

Good news, I tested negative after a tough night of shortness of breath and severe cough. It was my cpap that almost did me in....GP

Don't you listen to Captain Kirk? clean your cpap daily. [:D]

[btd64]

ORIGINAL: Nomad

ORIGINAL: btd64

Good news, I tested negative after a tough night of shortness of breath and severe cough. It was my cpap that almost did me in....GP

Don't you listen to Captain Kirk? clean your cpap daily. [:D]

I was, just not throughly enough. I am now....GP

[Canoerebel]

It looks like Univ. of Washington just revised its projection for the US (and presumably for the states, though I haven't checked them yet.

Mortality increased to about 69k (from 61k). Ironically, on the day it appears that mortality will come in 500 to 700 below the projection (but within the margin of error).

The UK projection was revised downward again, this time to about 24k.

A quick look at a couple of hot spot states shows that NY and NJ projections were nudged up a bit.

[Canoerebel]

Projections until peak days were pushed further out for some states but remain about the same for NY and NJ, where they fall to 0 around May 1.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From Swiss Media Group: "Several media have been caught trying to dramatize the situation in clinics, sometimes even with manipulative pictures and videos. In general, many media outlets do not question even doubtful official statements and figures."

That's pretty darned provocative.

It'd be helpful to know if this Media Group is bogus or not.

CBS showed video of an overwhelmed Italian hospital in a story about New York....twice. The first time the claimed an "editing error"..then they did the exact same thing 2 d later.

That's exploitation.

That could be dispersal of staff with many working from home, with all its distractions (including kids home from school and squabbling because of their cabin fever).

[Cap Mandrake]

Careful Brazilian case/control study of Hydroxychloroquine halted because of dangerous arrhythmias in the high dose group (600 mg twice a day).

There was a convincing incidence of ventricular tachycardia

The patients still alive were converted to 450 twice a day. This is why you need the science instead of listening to prophets.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus ... tification

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There's been three revisions for the US and each state in the past eight days, and one for the UK. It seems that Univ. of Washington updates the models frequently, feeding in new data (and possibly tweaking methods?) This makes sense. Since their models consistently over-project mortality in the US and UK, newer runs correct for that.

Is it an over-projection if it falls within the MoE?

Keeping in mind that both the projected value and the current official value are =/= the unknown true value.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Love the snarky sarcasm of "you seem to be an authority...." Relax with some cookies and milk.

Well, you do seem to have an inside line into the modelling discussions at University of Washington.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Careful Brazilian case/control study of Hydroxychloroquine halted because of dangerous arrhythmias in the high dose group (600 mg twice a day).

There was a convincing incidence of ventricular tachycardia

The patients still alive were converted to 450 twice a day. This is why you need the science instead of listening to prophets.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus ... tification

That would be absurd, and we'd actually have to make elected officials listen to expert medical opinion.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Careful Brazilian case/control study of Hydroxychloroquine halted because of dangerous arrhythmias in the high dose group (600 mg twice a day).

There was a convincing incidence of ventricular tachycardia

The patients still alive were converted to 450 twice a day. This is why you need the science instead of listening to prophets.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus ... tification

That is why there are studies, that way the proper dosage can be determined and risks identified.