After much discussion on whatsapp about how nationals work and whether odds displayed are including +1 for notional it looks like Peter has sorted it out for us so thank you.

I used to know these things but it's been too long since I resolved an MWIF combat with nationals that I had to think about very much.
His guess of how odds are working is:
Notional(55/12): 9,16 + 1 disorg, + 1 para -2 weather.
No notional(55/10): 11 + 1 para -2 weather
Given this understanding SU will choose to include the notional and fly I-153 and SB-2RK. Return I-153 to Smolensk and SB-2K to Gomel if they survive. If Allies get a result in A2A and Soviet bomber is still around choose result vs Axis FTR if only 1 FTR is in combat. If other situation Petteri or I can choose. Thanks.