"The USA is alarmed by the Axis bold move" trigger

[HamburgerMeat]

I just got this message when invading the USSR in August 1940, but I have not been able to trigger it in single player. What are the conditions?

[BillRunacre]

This is a Mobilization_2 script swinging the USA 20-25% towards the Allies if the Axis invade the USSR before Bulgaria has joined the Axis, i.e. to mitigate against an early invasion of the USSR.

It is triggered by Axis units being in, or within 1 hex, or certain locations in the USSR, which might be why you've not yet been able to repeat it.

[HamburgerMeat]

Interesting, thank you for the information!

[Cpuncher]

I never knew the US mobilization is so high for this. That's around 150 additional mpps per turn for US. Will this push US into the war before Dec 41, if Axis still try to avoid everything else that mobilizes US?

So if Germany do a 1940 invasion, US will probably come into the war super powerful with lots of techs and units, while Russia doesn't have the techs and forts to defend herself and will crumble quickly.

This should make things very interesting...after all, my first game against H probably should have continued to see if the vastly increased US mobilization can help turn things around.

[pjg100]

Yes, and I believe the US gets an additional 5-7% boost when the USSR hits 100% mobilization, i.e., the turn that Germany DOWs the USSR. This should have the effect of requiring JA to begin preparing for its Pacific offensive earlier than usual, which should help China considerably.

[Cpuncher]

Now any game between competitive players should probably require Diplomacy turned off. Otherwise both sides will throw all their money into Bulgaria diplo which really feels wrong. Post France the Axis will have an advantage in chits, but not much time, if still aiming early 40 invasion of USSR.

[HamburgerMeat]

I would hate to negate an entire aspect of the game just to address this strategy. I would recommend not tying this event to Bulgaria mobilization, but in the meantime, agree with Cpuncher that there should be a gentlemans agreement. Maybe not all diplomacy, but at least Bulgaria

[pjg100]

OTOH - Bulgaria starts at 70% pro-Axis. Assuming that the Allies counter Axis diplo prior to the fall of France, and that France falls by May/June 1940, that doesn't appear to be sufficient time for Axis diplo to work for a 1940 Barby. Personally, as Allies I think I would want to see the Axis dropping 550 MPP into Bulgaria for a net 30%/turn chance of getting a 5% uptick in mobilization. Yes the UK has to drop 250MPP to keep the chance down to 30%/turn, but the UK can afford it. I think that, absent unusually good luck, the Axis will just waste a large amount of MPP that they could put to better use.

[ThunderLizard11]

ORIGINAL: Cpuncher

Now any game between competitive players should probably require Diplomacy turned off. Otherwise both sides will throw all their money into Bulgaria diplo which really feels wrong. Post France the Axis will have an advantage in chits, but not much time, if still aiming early 40 invasion of USSR.

Never seen anyone try to strategy. Would be interesting but seems risky as France stays in the game and not sure what happens to Italy. Curious to hear more.

[BillRunacre]

ORIGINAL: HamburgerMeat

I would hate to negate an entire aspect of the game just to address this strategy. I would recommend not tying this event to Bulgaria mobilization, but in the meantime, agree with Cpuncher that there should be a gentlemans agreement. Maybe not all diplomacy, but at least Bulgaria

There isn't really much choice though, as for the event to happen only if the Axis attack the USSR very early in the war then it needs a condition to ensure that is the case, and I can't think of another way than tying it into the mobilization status of one of the Axis minors.

Just to explain, we don't really have a way of telling the event to only fire before a certain date and not after.

But if the Axis want to invest heavily in diplomacy against Bulgaria then this event is effectively penalizing them in some way, so maybe it works either way anyway?

[HamburgerMeat]

It is penalizing axis, but it is well worth the cost of avoiding 20-25% USA mobilization IMO. The Axis MPP loss does hurt, but most of the power of axis comes from higher morale/readiness, infantry weapon discrepancy, and tank level discrepancy. The power of this 1940 invasion is abusing infantry weapon discrepancy for as long as possible while raking up tons of experience for axis units.

Despite the short time axis have to get Bulgaria to join the Axis, it is not as rare as it seems. Consider the following:

Let's assume that both sides enter a blind game, not knowing what the other side will do. The Allies will probably not invest in Bulgaria until it knows that the Axis have invested in Bulgaria. Even if the Allies see Germany and Japan buying diplomacy chits, the Allies will not know those chits are for until they get the message the next turn. So Axis effectively get to "strike the first blow" diplomatically, and Allies have to respond. Once France falls, it is Axis' 11 chits (5 Germany 3 Italy 3 Japan) vs Allies 7 chits (5 UK 2 China, as India cannot invest in Bulgaria). That's a 20% chance per turn of getting a second diplomatic chit.

From the guide:

"If diplomacy succeeds, there will be a favorable increase of 4-8% in the targeted country’s political leaning towards your side, with a 33% chance of that swing being 12-24% if the targeted country is a Minor."

So if my math is right, the first chit, which is not countered, has a 12.8% chance of getting Bulgaria ready for war outright with no way to counterplay except for Allies blindly investing diplomacy into Bulgaria. There is also a 20.53% chance that it pushes Bulgaria into range where it just needs one additional regular chit before they start preparing for war.

So if the Axis win the 1:3 odds with the first chit, there is a decent chance that Bulgaria will mobilize.

The Allied counterplay is either: (A) the Allies either start investing in Bulgaria from the beginning (which is crazy IMO), or (B) assume that, if they see Germany and Japan spend $ on diplomacy, assume that it is for Bulgaria and purchase (which is not quite as crazy, but still crazy), or (C) spend $ on diplomacy after they see it is for Bulgaria (which is the most balanced approach, but substantially increases risk).

In addition, the allies can no longer proactively spend diplomacy chits (unless they want to waste $ by withdrawing chits when they see Bulgaria is the target). Instead, the allies have to wait and see what/if the axis do anything with diplomacy.

Finally, forcing the allies to spend $ on diplomacy early on further reduces their ability to defend France for long enough to prevent a 1940 USSR invasion.


The worst thing about the Bulgaria situation is that it adds a large amount of randomness with no counterplay except spending MPP and rolling the dice. It reminds me of Spain diplomacy in WiE, where getting Spain to join the Axis has a HUGE impact on the course of the game, and all the UK can do is spend 150 MPP and pray.


Is it possible to reduce Bulgaria's starting mobilization from 70% to 50% or something, but have their regular mobilization events in 1941 increased in effectiveness?

[Cpuncher]

Bulgaria starts at 70%, moves 3-5% when France surrenders, 7-10% when Axis Dow USSR. I don't know if there is something else that also move Bulgaria. Basically it's possible that Axis only need 1 regular diplo success to move Bulgaria above 90% simply by Dow USSR.

Since if Axis were able to succeed in this diplo war and USA doesn't get the extra mobilization when Axis invade USSR early/mid 1940, it might be just game over. So Allies cannot afford this possibility and may have to preemptively invest in Bulgaria heavily, and Germany also can't afford a Bulgaria that won't mobilize in 41 or forever, causing a most likely scenario that both sides have to invest heavily on Bulgaria as early as possible.

I hope there can be way to code the event not to fire after a certain date...is it possible to use a single check on a certain date?

[ThunderLizard11]

ORIGINAL: Cpuncher

Bulgaria starts at 70%, moves 3-5% when France surrenders, 7-10% when Axis Dow USSR. I don't know if there is something else that also move Bulgaria. Basically it's possible that Axis only need 1 regular diplo success to move Bulgaria above 90% simply by Dow USSR.

Since if Axis were able to succeed in this diplo war and USA doesn't get the extra mobilization when Axis invade USSR early/mid 1940, it might be just game over. So Allies cannot afford this possibility and may have to preemptively invest in Bulgaria heavily, and Germany also can't afford a Bulgaria that won't mobilize in 41 or forever, causing a most likely scenario that both sides have to invest heavily on Bulgaria as early as possible.

I hope there can be way to code the event not to fire after a certain date...is it possible to use a single check on a certain date?

Is this premised on taking over France early like April?

[Cpuncher]

Doesn't have to be very early. I think it's advantageous to Axis to invade up till Sep-ish in 1940. Nov or later probably better wait for next year. I'd think a competent Axis can finish France May or June, barring any major mistake.

[BillRunacre]

ORIGINAL: HamburgerMeat

Is it possible to reduce Bulgaria's starting mobilization from 70% to 50% or something, but have their regular mobilization events in 1941 increased in effectiveness?

I think this should be possible. As we're looking at what is in effect a way of working around the scripts to avoid a penalty it seems reasonable that we change this, and what you've suggested sounds good to me. [:)]