OT - The New Coronavirus Part II

[MrRoadrunner]

138,487/2,081,969 = 7%

RR

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: loki100

my point is I cited official figures from the Republic of Ireland (& that apply purely in the Republic). Now since they have a substantial degree of wider testing and contact tracing they probably are more accurate than those reported by many states - in effect they are capturing a lot more of the 'ill but not hospitalised' than say England.

The figures I have for Ireland are 12547 cases and 444 deaths. No recoveries. That's from the ECDC.

I'm open to credible evidence to the contrary, but no one has sourced any yet.

And no one's credentials are evidence of anything.

Aye, you're right, I apologise.

I mean heads of states, medics etc all know so much less than you and I'm sure you are 100% correct when you assert that no-one has recovered from Covid-19 in Ireland.

I realise that by your measure that is a 100% death rate so I'd have expected to have heard about given the usual level of interaction between Scotland and Ireland but I guess its just been overlooked?

[Lobster]

COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS / TRANSMISSION
SARS-CoV-2 Transmission
Last updated: April 16, 5:00 GMT
"COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads" according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

In general, respiratory virus infection can occur through:

contact (direct or indirect)
droplet spray in short range transmission
aerosol in long-range transmission (airborne transmission)
Close Contact (6 feet, 1.8 meters) and Respiratory Droplets
"The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)
Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes or talks" [source]
This idea, that large droplets of virus-laden mucus are the primary mode of transmission, guides the US CDC's advice to maintain at least a 6-foot distance: "Maintaining good social distance (about 6 feet) is very important in preventing the spread of COVID-19" [source]

Is 6 feet enough?
Some experts contacted by LiveScience think that 6 feet (1.8 meters) is not enough [source]

Air Currents
"Larger respiratory droplets (>5 &#956;m) remain in the air for only a short time and travel only short distances, generally <1 m" (less than 3.3 feet) [source] [source] [source]

"Virus-laden small (<5 &#956;m) aerosolized droplets can remain in the air and travel long distances, >1 m" (more than 3.3 feet) [source] [source]

A study of transmission occurring in a restaurant between people at a distance above 1 meter, observed that "strong airflow from the air conditioner could have propagated droplets" [source]

Humidity (best if between 50% and 80%)
"It is assumed that temperature and humidity modulate the viability of viruses by affecting the properties of viral surface proteins and lipid membrane" [source] Relative humidity (RH, or Saturation Ratio: the state of vapor equilibrium in room air) affects all infectious droplets with respiratory viruses, independent of their source (respiratory tract or aerosolized from any fluid) and location (in air or settled on surfaces). Relative humidity therefore affects all transmission ways but has the most pronounced effect on airborne transmission. [source]

"Measurements of indoor humidities in 40 residential apartments in New York (19) and in 6 high-quality commercial buildings in the Midwest (20) showed indoor vapor pressure of below 10 mb or indoor RH of below 24% in the winter" [source]

Experiments conducted in a study indicated "a striking correlation of the stability of winter viruses at low RH (20–50%), while the stability of summer or all-year viruses enhanced at higher RH (80%)" [source]

Airborne Transmission
The WHO states that "Respiratory infections can be transmitted through droplets of different sizes: when the droplet particles are >5-10 &#956;m in diameter they are referred to as respiratory droplets, and when they are <5&#956;m in diameter, they are referred to as droplet nuclei. According to current evidence, COVID-19 virus is primarily transmitted between people through respiratory droplets and contact routes" [source]

The WHO defines airborne transmission as "the spread of an infectious agent caused by the dissemination of droplet nuclei that remain infectious when suspended in air over long distances and time" [source]

Air Distance: up to 4 meters (13 feet) might be possible (in hospitals)
"The maximum transmission distance of SARS-CoV-2 aerosol might be 4 m" (13.1 feet), according to a study published on April 10 on Emerging Infectious Diseases, a journal of the US CDC which also found that "SARS-CoV-2 was widely distributed in the air and on object surfaces in both the ICU and general ward (GW), implying a potentially high infection risk for medical staff and other close contacts" [source]

This is true in a hospital setting and doesn't necessarily apply to other settings. The WHO says that "in the context of COVID-19, airborne transmission may be possible in specific circumstances and settings in which procedures or support treatments that generate aerosols are performed; i.e., endotracheal intubation, bronchoscopy, open suctioning, administration of nebulized treatment, manual ventilation before intubation, turning the patient to the prone position, disconnecting the patient from the ventilator, non-invasive positive-pressure ventilation, tracheostomy, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation" [source]

And concludes that "further studies are needed to determine whether it is possible to detect COVID-19 virus in air samples from patient rooms where no procedures or support treatments that generate aerosols are ongoing" [source]

Air Duration: up to 3 hours (but not in normal conditions, according to WHO)
Virus can remain viable "in aerosols up to 3 hours" found a study published in The New England Journal of Medicine on March 17 [source]

The WHO notes that these findings need to be interpreted carefully: "in this experimental study, aerosols were generated using a three-jet Collison nebulizer and fed into a Goldberg drum under controlled laboratory conditions. This is a high-powered machine that does not reflect normal human cough conditions. Further, the finding of COVID-19 virus in aerosol particles up to 3 hours does not reflect a clinical setting in which aerosol-generating procedures are performed - that is, this was an experimentally induced aerosol-generating procedure" [source]

Objects and Surfaces
The virus could spread by touching an object or surface with virus present from an infected person, and then touching the mouth, nose or eyes.

Surface contamination as observed in the study cited above [source]:

Computer mouse (ICU 6/8, 75%; GW 1/5, 20%)
Trash cans (ICU 3/5, 60%; GW 0/8)
Sickbed handrails (ICU 6/14, 42.9%; GW 0/12)
Doorknobs (GW 1/12, 8.3%)
76.5% of all personal items sampled at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) were determined to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 [source]

Of these samples, 81.3% of the miscellaneous personal items were positive by PCR, which included:

Exercise equipment
Medical equipment (spirometer, pulse oximeter, nasal cannula)
PC and iPads
Reading glasses

Other findings:

Cellular phones (83.3% positive for viral RNA)
Remote controls for in-room TVs (64.7% percent positive)
Toilets (81.0% positive)
Room surfaces (80.4% of all sampled)
Bedside tables and bed rails (75.0%)
Window ledges (81.8%)
Duration of contamination on objects and surfaces
Although the virus titer was greatly reduced, viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured for this length of time:

Plastic: up to 2-3 days
Stainless Steel: up to 2-3 days
Cardboard: up to 1 day
Copper: up to 4 hours
[source]

Floor
"The rate of positivity was relatively high for floor swab samples (ICU 7/10, 70%; GW 2/13, 15.4%), perhaps because of gravity and air flow causing most virus droplets to float to the ground.

In addition, as medical staff walk around the ward, the virus can be tracked all over the floor, as indicated by the 100% rate of positivity from the floor in the pharmacy, where there were no patients.

Furthermore, half of the samples from the soles of the ICU medical staff shoes tested positive. Therefore, the soles of medical staff shoes might function as carriers. The 3 weak positive results from the floor of dressing room 4 might also arise from these carriers. We highly recommend that persons disinfect shoe soles before walking out of wards containing COVID-19 patients."

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/

[z1812]

@Lobster, Good post!

[Curtis Lemay]

Today's worldwide figures:

[MrRoadrunner]

146,291/2,173,432 = 7%

RR

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:

...

are you still seeing 100% mortality rates in the Republic of Ireland?

[PipFromSlitherine]

Guys, I am not sure these discussions are especially useful. Remember:



https://m.xkcd.com/2295/

Cheers

Pip

[MrsWargamer]

ORIGINAL: PipFromSlitherine

Guys, I am not sure these discussions are especially useful. Remember:



https://m.xkcd.com/2295/

Cheers

Pip

Love it

[balto]

That is great. Add to that "Stats are like the bible, you can make them support whatever you want them to support." Some like to support Gloom and Doom (Matrix Legion of Dongs) and some like to view it that things are getting better and everything will be okay very soon.

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: balto


and some like to view it that things are getting better and everything will be okay very soon.

Also Matrix Legion of Dongs. [:D]

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1061032
https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... oronavirus
https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/ ... fao-warns/
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronav ... plies.html
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/14/ho ... omy-trade/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/business ... index.html

[Curtis Lemay]

Today's worldwide figures:

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:

...

are you still seeing 100% mortality rates in the Republic of Ireland?

Only the worldwide figures have any validity. This is a worldwide pandemic with people moving all over the globe. Cherry picking one set of figures from one country is bogus practice.

[Red2112]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: balto


and some like to view it that things are getting better and everything will be okay very soon.

Also Matrix Legion of Dongs. [:D]

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1061032
https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... oronavirus
https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/ ... fao-warns/
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronav ... plies.html
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/14/ho ... omy-trade/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/business ... index.html

Be careful, you might be taged as a pro-conspiracy activist!

Which brings me to the last 3-4 pages with no censorship being applied. Must be in a good mood, and/or preference to whom speaks/writes. I belive the latter...

Just goes to show, way to go Matrix!

--

[MrRoadrunner]

156,119/2,276,473 = 7%

RR

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:

...

are you still seeing 100% mortality rates in the Republic of Ireland?

Only the worldwide figures have any validity. This is a worldwide pandemic with people moving all over the globe. Cherry picking one set of figures from one country is bogus practice.

always get mixed up, is consistency the hobgoblin or the orc of small minds:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: loki100

my point is I cited official figures from the Republic of Ireland (& that apply purely in the Republic). Now since they have a substantial degree of wider testing and contact tracing they probably are more accurate than those reported by many states - in effect they are capturing a lot more of the 'ill but not hospitalised' than say England.

The figures I have for Ireland are 12547 cases and 444 deaths. No recoveries. That's from the ECDC.

I'm open to credible evidence to the contrary, but no one has sourced any yet.

And no one's credentials are evidence of anything.

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: Red2112

Be careful, you might be taged as a pro-conspiracy activist!

I love conspiracies. They make good movies. [;)]

[rico21]

Faced with the coronavirus, “we have all become Native Americans! "
The helplessness of the most isolated tribes of Brazil in the face of the disease is also ours. And our thirst for growth exposes us to dangers we thought were a thing of the past, notes anthropologist Bruce Albert in a column in "The World".
On April 9, the new SARS-CoV-2 virus made its first fatal victim among the Yanomami people. He is a 15-year-old adolescent from a community in the Rio Uraricoera basin in Brazil, massively invaded by illegal gold panners.
With characteristic respiratory symptoms, the young man, Alvaney Xirixana, malnourished and anemic due to successive malaria attacks, was, for 21 days, discharged from one health institution to another, with a simple prescription of antibiotics, without ever being tested for Covid-19. He will not be finally tested until April 3, after a new hospitalization, this time in a critical state requiring his putting on a respirator and will die on April 9. Alvaney, a victim of the absurd neglect of local health services, probably became, despite himself, after many contacts he had had for three weeks with members of his community, with his friends and with the health workers, a "broadcaster" of the disease. The imminent threat of a new major health disaster is thus again hanging over the Yanomami today.
These people have already experienced deadly epidemics (notably measles and respiratory infections) with each appearance of new protagonists of the "white border" on their territory: in the 1940s with the Borders Commission, in the 1950s with the Indian protection service, in the 1960s with the evangelical missionaries and, in the 1970s, with the opening of a section of the Transamazonian. Since the late 1980s, and regularly since, its territory has been invaded by hordes of clandestine gold miners - there are now around 25,000 - who are very likely to be at the origin of this first case of Covid- 19, in addition to the spread (among others) of malaria, influenza, tuberculosis and sexually transmitted diseases.
The case of Alvaney Xirixana is the tragic symbol of the extreme vulnerability in which the Amerindian peoples (and all indigenous peoples) find themselves in the face of the contagiousness and virulence of SARS-CoV-2. Already massively contaminated by whites who invade their lands to extract minerals, wood or wild animals, without access to decent health care, they are, once again, doomed outright to decimation in almost general indifference.
Newspaper "Le Monde".

[Orm]

I feel like I am distrustful of an article that uses the term "whites" as a term for the villainous invaders. Especially when they do not have any figures of the different ethnicities of this group. It actually feel racist to me. But, on the other hand, what do I know, maybe there are all 100% "white". Although I seriously doubt that.

[Orm]

Thank you, rico21, for sharing. Interesting reading.