OT: Corona virus

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: HansBolter



From Briebart this morning:

L.A. County Study: Coronavirus Outbreak Up to 55 Times More Widespread, Less Deadly than Predicted

The novel coronavirus has infected roughly 4.1 percent of the population in California’s Los Angeles County, suggesting the region’s outbreak is far more widespread than previously thought, between 28 and 55 times higher than the number of confirmed cases, new research shows, echoing the findings of a similar study elsewhere in the state.

However, the new data, if accurate, also indicates that the coronavirus death rate in L.A. County, the most populous in the country, is lower than initially predicted. Researchers from the University of Southern California (USC) and the L.A. Department of Public Health gleaned the data from antibody testing of about 863 county residents. Antibodies are an indication that an individual’s immune system has responded to a past infection.

On Monday, CNBC reported:

USC and the health department released preliminary study results that found that roughly 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the coronavirus, estimating that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.

This new estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of Covid-19 [coronavirus illness] reported to the county in early April. The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600, according to the Department of Public Health. The data, if correct, would mean that the county’s fatality rate is lower than originally thought.

Link to the article: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... predicted/

That is quite similar to the Santa Clara County study.

Pretty grandiose extrapolation based on 863 samples. Out of a population of 10M, what is that? .00863%. I don't have the gumption to run that through sample size calculators right now, but I doubt the statistical validity of extrapolating such miniscule sample numbers to the entire population of LA County. It's a fine line between statistically valid population sampling / extrapolating that information to a larger population versus a sop for the masses.

From the article: "If you have one percent of your population infected and you have a test that’s only 99 percent specific that means that when you find a positive, 50 percent of the time will be a real positive, and 50 percent it won’t be. And that’s why we’re really asking people to start testing in among the first responders and the health care workers who may have had the greatest exposures because that’s where the tests will be most reliable and then when we have the luxury we can go out to broader and broader communities".

New York state has tested >660,000 people for the virus (RT-PCR): 3.4%. About 1.2% of the population is positive for the virus. How 'random' serology testing of 0.0015% of the population (3,000 people) will provide actionable information that can be extrapolated to the whole body is beyond me. I'm leaning towards a sop.

I'm not sure how this changes any decisions either. So the LA county IFR is much lower than we thought it was in January. Big whoop. Now what? The USC epi guy is suggesting that this means that we're 'early' in the outbreak for LA county then. Totally bogus line of reasoning. You will *never* get 100.0% exposure to these sorts of community agents. These things reach a saturation point well below that and peter out. One could argue that-based on waning clinical case submissions-that this thing has shot its bolt in the population at hand and will wane over time.

And finding lots of asymptomatic seroconverters / lower IFR augurs towards downplaying the significance of this outbreak. As we drive IFR closer to 0, people will be unable to distinguish between this and seasonal influenza / the common cold. And they will bristle at those restrictions on our daily lives that differ from normal seasonal influenza restrictions (to whit: none).

So caveat emptor-be careful what you look for, because you may find it. Now that you found it, now what?

[MakeeLearn]

SARS and MERS: What’s Next?
February 23, 2017

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 144729.htm


"It may be difficult to remember now, but when SARS was first recognized in February 2003, people were scared. This heretofore unknown disease was killing people—nearly 10 percent of those infected with what came to be recognized as the SARS-associated coronavirus. "

"Therefore, there still may be cause for concern about this type of virus. "There are likely hundreds of coronaviruses out there in bats," Leibowitz said. "We've only really seen two of them manifest as severe diseases in humans, and they all may have some potential for transmission to other species -- including us."

"I have no real doubt that there will be another outbreak of a coronavirus," Leibowitz added. "We don't know where or when or which one, but we need to be ready.""

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

From Daily Wire this morning:

Epidemiologist Warns Lockdown Policies ‘Not Evidence-Based’, Unsustainable In Democracies

On Friday, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, Professor Johan Giesecke, sat down with UnHeard and discussed lockdown policies across the globe, and what he perceives as the policies’ weaknesses in tackling the China-originated novel coronavirus, COVID-19.

Professor Giesecke currently serves as an advisor to the Swedish Government, was the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), and a former advisor to the director general of the WHO (he’s now retired and serves as an advisor to the WHO only in an honorary capacity).

“The measures we should take against the pandemic should be evidence-based,” he told UnHeard, “and when you start looking around for the measures are being taken now by different countries, you find that very few of them have the shred of evidence base.”

The only measure “we know” will work “is washing your hands is good for you and good for others when you’re in epidemic, but the rest, like border closures, school closures, social distancing, there’s almost no science behind most of these,” argued Giesecke.

In the end, the leading epidemiologist said, most democratized nations will have similar outcomes with regard to deaths, lockdown or not. Lockdowns, he argued, are unsustainable and could have serious political consequences, highlighting Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who recently made a controversial power grab citing the virus......

Link to full article: https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemio ... emocracies

Good interview, Hans. Thanks for sharing.

I agree with every point he made, excepting the prediction of long-term seroconversion (in UK and Sweden) at >50% a year from now. No evidence for that.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I was assigned by the medical group to go to a conference presented by the CDC on CW and biological warfare. HORY CRAP! That s*** makes COVID seem like a diaper rash. FEMA has big inventories of Doxycycline and Cipro all over for anthrax. I asked the speaker where they were and she laughed at me. [:D] If we are ever attacked by weaponized anthrax it ma be the only ones left are teenage girls taking Doxy for acne and everyone on Cirpo for a UTI.

A drug dealer told me that Cipro can cause tendonitis where the Achilles tendon will spontaneously rupture. This tendonitis can be permanent because it messes up the RNA.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I was assigned by the medical group to go to a conference presented by the CDC on CW and biological warfare. HORY CRAP! That s*** makes COVID seem like a diaper rash. FEMA has big inventories of Doxycycline and Cipro all over for anthrax. I asked the speaker where they were and she laughed at me. [:D] If we are ever attacked by weaponized anthrax it ma be the only ones left are teenage girls taking Doxy for acne and everyone on Cirpo for a UTI.

Yes, NBC (Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical) warfare is terrible. The antidote for nerve gas is another poison. If you ever smell fresh mown hay when you should not, that might be mustard gas which is a blister agent. If you smell almonds when you should not, that is probably hydrogen cyanide.

As far as stockpiles of medical supplies, there should be one with the inventory rotated so nothing should be wasted. IF there is a need for the masks, rotate the stockpile with Last In, First Out. The inventory going out could be used in hospitals, fire fighting or where ever needed. The equipment send out, should be returned and refurbished for the next time. The states and local governments should have a stockpile as well as the national government - of whatever country.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I was assigned by the medical group to go to a conference presented by the CDC on CW and biological warfare. HORY CRAP! That s*** makes COVID seem like a diaper rash. FEMA has big inventories of Doxycycline and Cipro all over for anthrax. I asked the speaker where they were and she laughed at me. [:D] If we are ever attacked by weaponized anthrax it ma be the only ones left are teenage girls taking Doxy for acne and everyone on Cirpo for a UTI.

Yes, NBC (Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical) warfare is terrible.

Yes, which is why CoVid19 is such a GREAT bioweapon.

If someone wants me to explain I will take the time.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

... while they thought nobody was looking, they arrested a bunch of pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong last weekend...

You overlooked something else done last weekend. China has just created 2 new administrative districts in the Paracel and Spratly islands.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/ ... a/12165646

This action has far longer term ramifications than the Hong Kong arrests for it represents outright de facto annexation. It moves the South China Sea conflict from one over internationally disputed islands to one over established sovereign Chinese land. At least that is the legal narrative China will present to any legal challenge made under the Law of the Sea rules.

Alfred

It has already lost concerning the Spratley Islands:

International Court Issues Unanimous Award in Philippines v. China Case on South China Sea
The Court’s award is in the Philippines’ favor on most questions.

https://thediplomat.com/2016/07/interna ... china-sea/

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I was assigned by the medical group to go to a conference presented by the CDC on CW and biological warfare. HORY CRAP! That s*** makes COVID seem like a diaper rash. FEMA has big inventories of Doxycycline and Cipro all over for anthrax. I asked the speaker where they were and she laughed at me. [:D] If we are ever attacked by weaponized anthrax it ma be the only ones left are teenage girls taking Doxy for acne and everyone on Cirpo for a UTI.

Yes, NBC (Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical) warfare is terrible.

Yes, which is why CoVid19 is such a GREAT bioweapon.

If someone wants me to explain I will take the time.

I understand that the US military foam rubber protective gear are quite warm. Wash out the carbon filter, dye it orange, then go deer hunting.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

From Daily Wire this morning:

Epidemiologist Warns Lockdown Policies ‘Not Evidence-Based’, Unsustainable In Democracies

On Friday, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, Professor Johan Giesecke, sat down with UnHeard and discussed lockdown policies across the globe, and what he perceives as the policies’ weaknesses in tackling the China-originated novel coronavirus, COVID-19.

Professor Giesecke currently serves as an advisor to the Swedish Government, was the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), and a former advisor to the director general of the WHO (he’s now retired and serves as an advisor to the WHO only in an honorary capacity).

“The measures we should take against the pandemic should be evidence-based,” he told UnHeard, “and when you start looking around for the measures are being taken now by different countries, you find that very few of them have the shred of evidence base.”

The only measure “we know” will work “is washing your hands is good for you and good for others when you’re in epidemic, but the rest, like border closures, school closures, social distancing, there’s almost no science behind most of these,” argued Giesecke.

In the end, the leading epidemiologist said, most democratized nations will have similar outcomes with regard to deaths, lockdown or not. Lockdowns, he argued, are unsustainable and could have serious political consequences, highlighting Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who recently made a controversial power grab citing the virus......

Link to full article: https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemio ... emocracies

Good interview, Hans. Thanks for sharing.

I agree with every point he made, excepting the prediction of long-term seroconversion (in UK and Sweden) at >50% a year from now. No evidence for that.

Yes, thank you.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Mario Cuomo hates Trump. Cuomo launched a NY State investigation with the explicit purpose of getting Trump's tax returns. CNN hates Trump. Fredo Cuomo at CNN hates Trump. It's a damily thing. The only things missing are cars blowing up in Sicily and fat guys with girots.

Is it inefficient to have state buyers bidding against FEMA? Sure. Is it some scheme to get rich? No. It's thousands of government bureaucrats trying to do what their bosses told them to do. Cuomo also demanded 20,000 vents and they gave him 8000. He complained about that too. Turns out FEMA was right. If his job was to boost up the morale of New Yorkers and hit Trump you would have to say he was successful. There is quite a strong draft Cuomo movement among the Dems.

As I recall Cuomo demanded 30,000 ventilators, and said publicly (paraphrased for memory) 'send all the ventilators you have to NY, and I will send them on to others who need them after we are finished with them'.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Pretty grandiose extrapolation based on 863 samples. Out of a population of 10M, what is that? .00863%. I don't have the gumption to run that through sample size calculators right now, but I doubt the statistical validity of extrapolating such miniscule sample numbers to the entire population of LA County.

It's about the sample size of many Presidential polls, where they purport to assay 130 million voters. [:)] At least they admit their CI is the size of Delaware

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Mario Cuomo hates Trump. Cuomo launched a NY State investigation with the explicit purpose of getting Trump's tax returns. CNN hates Trump. Fredo Cuomo at CNN hates Trump. It's a damily thing. The only things missing are cars blowing up in Sicily and fat guys with girots.

Is it inefficient to have state buyers bidding against FEMA? Sure. Is it some scheme to get rich? No. It's thousands of government bureaucrats trying to do what their bosses told them to do. Cuomo also demanded 20,000 vents and they gave him 8000. He complained about that too. Turns out FEMA was right. If his job was to boost up the morale of New Yorkers and hit Trump you would have to say he was successful. There is quite a strong draft Cuomo movement among the Dems.

As I recall Cuomo demanded 30,000 ventilators, and said publicly (paraphrased for memory) 'send all the ventilators you have to NY, and I will send them on to others who need them after we are finished with them'.

I remember him stating he needed 40,000 ventilators and wanted Trump to pick the people that would die if the Feds didn't send them.

[Cap Mandrake]

I don't think FEMA even had the number of vents he wanted. Who did he think was going to intubate and take care of 40K ventilated patients?

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

... while they thought nobody was looking, they arrested a bunch of pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong last weekend...

You overlooked something else done last weekend. China has just created 2 new administrative districts in the Paracel and Spratly islands.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/ ... a/12165646

This action has far longer term ramifications than the Hong Kong arrests for it represents outright de facto annexation. It moves the South China Sea conflict from one over internationally disputed islands to one over established sovereign Chinese land. At least that is the legal narrative China will present to any legal challenge made under the Law of the Sea rules.

Alfred

It has already lost concerning the Spratley Islands:

International Court Issues Unanimous Award in Philippines v. China Case on South China Sea
The Court’s award is in the Philippines’ favor on most questions.

https://thediplomat.com/2016/07/interna ... china-sea/

The Chicoms told the International Court to pound sand...which is basically what happened. It's like the old WITP...20K supply, 3 CB units and in 2 weeks you have a 6000 ft concrete runway and two officer's clubs.

[MakeeLearn]

The People's Liberation Army Daily , or PLA Daily for short, is the official newspaper of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA).


http://english.pladaily.com.cn/

[RFalvo69]

Stunning news here:

Kentucky sees highest spike in coronavirus cases after protests against lockdown

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... ssion=true

I wonder if the Coronavirus is indifferent or if it actually has a sense of humor.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Stunning news here:

Kentucky sees highest spike in coronavirus cases after protests against lockdown

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... ssion=true

I wonder if the Coronavirus is indifferent or if it actually has a sense of humor.

Current as of April 20, 2020 at 5 p.m. Eastern time

Kentucky Coronavirus Monitoring
Number Tested: 32,820
Positive: 3,050
Deaths: 154

Note: Data includes confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to KDPH.

https://govstatus.egov.com/kycovid19

[MakeeLearn]

"I just don't know our denominator number, the number of actual cases, is reflective of what the community is seeing. It is just a small sample right now," said emergency room physician Dr. Ryan Stanton about the state's death rate. "I don't know the health of Kentucky is going to help us by any stretch of the imagination, but we also have an older population. People who have been dying are kind of critically ill. It's been getting into places such as nursing homes, long-term care facilities and among the elderly.""


"Kentucky ranks among the worst states for the percentage of residents with diabetes, high blood pressure, and obesity. An estimated 39.4% have high blood pressure, 36.6% are obese and about 13.7% have diabetes, according to the 2019 America's Health Rankings from United Health Foundation.

Nationally, the median is 32.2% with high blood pressure, 30.9% obese and 10.9% with diabetes."

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WKYT- ... 18711.html

[MakeeLearn]

Couple are furious when told they’re not allowed to buy 552 CANS of Mountain Dew due to coronavirus rationing at Kroger store in Kentucky
20 March 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... n-Dew.html


"A couple visiting a supermarket in Louisville, Kentucky, on Tuesday attempted to purchase 23 cases of Mountain Dew

The man repeatedly shouted abuse at a worker as he tried to buy a total of 552 cans of the soft drink but was refused

The woman he was with stopped him from walking out with three boxes and slammed two of them on the cash register counter"

[MakeeLearn]

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted

Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

March 26, 2020
This editorial was published on February 28, 2020, at NEJM.org.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387


"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.

In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity.

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

"This editorial was published on February 28, 2020, at NEJM.org."