OT: Corona virus

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Now this....


A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients
1 hr ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... li=BBnb7Kz


"One doctor replied that one of his patients had a strange blood problem. Despite receiving anticoagulants, the patient was still developing clots. A second said she’d seen something similar. And a third. Soon, every person on the text chat had reported the same thing.

“That’s when we knew we had a huge problem,” said Coopersmith, a critical-care surgeon. As he checked with his counterparts at other medical centers, he became increasingly alarmed: “It was in as many as 20, 30 or 40 percent of their patients.” "

"Autopsies have shown some people’s lungs fill with hundreds of microclots. Errant blood clots of a larger size can break off and travel to the brain or heart, causing a stroke or heart attack. On Saturday, Broadway actor Nick Cordero, 41, had his right leg amputated after being infected with the novel coronavirus and suffering from clots that blocked blood from getting to his toes. "

"“The problem we are having is that while we understand that there is a clot, we don’t yet understand why there is a clot,” Kaplan said. “We don’t know. And therefore, we are scared.” "

Like with the flu?

I don't think that is a surprise though? For me it has been pretty much common ground that this is a 'flu-like' disease and so it would surely make sense that the biological mechanisms leading to death would be similar? I guess the issue is more one of prevalence - that potentially Covid-19 patients are developing those kinds of complications at a much higher rate than Influenza patients.

One statistic I've not seen which would be of interest is the death rate for influenza patients who have to be admitted to hospital?

[Edit - just had a look for myself - for 2016-17 the CDC estimate for the USA c.500,000 hospitalizations and 38,000 deaths - so c. 7.5% death rate - by comparison Italy is currently reporting 32% of closed cases being deaths rather than recoveries]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Now this....


A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients
1 hr ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... li=BBnb7Kz


"One doctor replied that one of his patients had a strange blood problem. Despite receiving anticoagulants, the patient was still developing clots. A second said she’d seen something similar. And a third. Soon, every person on the text chat had reported the same thing.

“That’s when we knew we had a huge problem,” said Coopersmith, a critical-care surgeon. As he checked with his counterparts at other medical centers, he became increasingly alarmed: “It was in as many as 20, 30 or 40 percent of their patients.” "

"Autopsies have shown some people’s lungs fill with hundreds of microclots. Errant blood clots of a larger size can break off and travel to the brain or heart, causing a stroke or heart attack. On Saturday, Broadway actor Nick Cordero, 41, had his right leg amputated after being infected with the novel coronavirus and suffering from clots that blocked blood from getting to his toes. "

"“The problem we are having is that while we understand that there is a clot, we don’t yet understand why there is a clot,” Kaplan said. “We don’t know. And therefore, we are scared.” "

Like with the flu?

I don't think that is a surprise though? For me it has been pretty much common ground that this is a 'flu-like' disease and so it would surely make sense that the biological mechanisms leading to death would be similar? I guess the issue is more one of prevalence - that potentially Covid-19 patients are developing those kinds of complications at a much higher rate than Influenza patients.

One statistic I've not seen which would be of interest is the death rate for influenza patients who have to be admitted to hospital?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4947825/

I agree. No surprise and it's a similar mechanism of hyper-inflammatory response in severe influenza pneumoniae. @ Cap Mandrake-is this DIC (Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation) per se?

Sort of dark humor, but we always referred to DIC in patients as "Death Is Coming". It's not a good clinical outcome.

[MakeeLearn]

No surprise, exactly.

I reported on this several pages back.


The news reports and the Doctors in them are:

WOW, whats happening “We don’t know. And therefore, we are scared.”

[alanschu]

Extending from the UK FT post yesterday, NYT has followed up on looking at "excess deaths" to try to measure the impact the pandemic has had on mortality.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... eaths.html

Interesting that while Sweden has seen a 12% increase in weekly deaths, there has *not* been an overwhelming of non-covid/uncertain deaths. IIRC I believe they have done well in terms of making sure their health care system was not overwhelmed.

The nature of the data means it's a few weeks behind though and it's still only until the end of March.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

No surprise, exactly.

I reported on this several pages back.


The news reports and the Doctors in them are:

WOW, whats happening “We don’t know. And therefore, we are scared.”

I guess it depends on what they are saying - if they are saying that they literally don't know what is happening then that is on them and they are better served educating themselves rather than speaking to the media.

If, as I think is more likely, they are expressing shock at the prevalence of these kinds of complications then to me it seems a much more appropriate response (although I'd still question how much it helps matters going to the media).

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Extending from the UK FT post yesterday, NYT has followed up on looking at "excess deaths" to try to measure the impact the pandemic has had on mortality.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... eaths.html

Interesting that while Sweden has seen a 12% increase in weekly deaths, there has *not* been an overwhelming of non-covid/uncertain deaths. IIRC I believe they have done well in terms of making sure their health care system was not overwhelmed.

The nature of the data means it's a few weeks behind though and it's still only until the end of March.

I think we will have to give it a month before we have a sense of how Sweden has turned out. They might be a shining light for other countries to follow. They might be a cautionary example. Hopefully it will be the former rather than the latter.

[RFalvo69]

No shit.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: obvert

It just feels like every statement needs to have some adolescent dig added in to be valid. It "was reasonable but ... ." Why the but?

Constantly trumpeting your political position is irrelevant and boring.

Wait a minute. Did I just have an absence attack or did you not ASK what the concern was? "Adolescent"???? Why did you ask if you find it tedious.

Sweet Baby Jesus. I think I will do some yoga because you are annoying the crap out of me as well

[Sammy5IsAlive]

A question for those of you with science/medical backgrounds (which I don't have)

One of the things that concerns me looking at what is going on in Europe is the amount of healthcare professionals (also in the UK apparently public transport workers) who are getting sick.

Is this the following a possibility?
1) An immune system, once it is up and running in response to the virus has a 'carrying capacity' of the amount of virus it can remove over X amount of time.
2) Thinking optimistically - for most healthy people this carrying capacity is above the increase in levels of virus over the same amount of time - both in terms of the virus multiplying inside of the body and, potentially also in terms of continued 'intake' of the virus from outside the body.
3) But there will still be a time lag of the immune system response to get up and running - so potentially when you test these people they will still have a level of infection Y despite showing no symptoms. This level of infection will test positive.
4) Some people will not have this balance - either because their immune system is not able to remove the virus quicker than it is spreading inside their body or because their circumstances (whether it be because they are a healthcare professional or because by some other quirk of their circumstances) they are getting repeated exposures higher than the norm. So these people will see their level of infection increase until it reaches a point where they become symptomatic - for the sake of argument 4Y.

That is one proposition.

But there might follow a more worrying possibility. That would be that absent social distancing measures individuals are gradually shedding/transmitting more virus than the 'community' carrying capacity is able to deal with. If that were the case you could potentially have a situation where large parts of the community are gradually getting more and more infected until as a community they start reaching that 4Y point where they become sick and you suddenly see precipitous rises in cases and deaths.

Is that way off beam? For me the other more basic explanation for high proportion of medical professionals dying is that they are all exhausted both in general terms and in terms of their immune systems.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

No shit.

I think if you look for it you'll find nutcases everywhere in the same proportions. The US is so much bigger as a population and social media so ubiquitous that there will always be more examples of this and stuff like flat earthism/anti-vax conspiracies that will inaccurately suggest that those kinds of far out beliefs are US-centric.

In the UK we've had a spate of people trying to burn down 5G masts because they think they are spreading the virus

[mind_messing]

The numbers from Scotland make some grim reading. A third from people in care homes. Three quarters over 75.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most of us love history, so that helps us keep this in perspective. While this is one of the gripping stories of our time it bears no resemblance to what our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced a century ago. They dealt with something like 40 million to 100 million Spanish flu deaths and a world war. Coronavirus mortality, in comparison, is an order of magnitude less, is projected to remain so, and most of us are safely at home or at work with plenty of food, power, entertainment, books, etc.

There's also the fact that originally this was projected to be exponentially more significant than its been or appears likely to be. Early on, as we've noted here many times, an Australian group came up with seven projections, the least of which called for 17 million deaths worldwide. Then there was a US estimate calling for 1.7 million deaths. Then came one for California alone to suffer 200k to 500k. Then the oft-sighted projection that the US would suffer 100k to 240k mortalities three weeks ago. Now, the estimates for the US have stabilized at around 60k to 70k. That's a great deal of death but so much fewer than early estimates and so much less than the Spanish flu...and the world survived that.

People are trying to foresee what the future holds and to get ready. Early projections will probably be about as accurate as they were for this round. But mankind is getting a grip on this, through lots of trial and error and guesswork and deductive reasoning and testing. We flattened the curve, which was the dominant approach advocated early on. And it's good that we'll now test various measures of easing, while many/most hospitals have capacity to deal with flare ups. The knowledge gained will be useful when/if the next round comes.

The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

We now have the 'let's lock down our economy until it collapses so Trump won't get reelected' crowd throwing out the posit that perhaps lock down protesters should have to wave their right to medical treatment.

The obvious counter to that is positing that those who want to hide in their homes refusing to go back to work should have to sign away their 'right' to economic relief from their government.

Economic and physical well being are not easy things to balance and jingoistic approaches slamming one side or the other accomplish nothing more than raising the ire of the side with the opposing viewpoint.

It's probably clear to most with functional grey matter that localized approaches have varied widely with some erring way too heavily on the side of caution and others erring way too heavily on the cavalier side.

How do you balance things like the story coming out of PA about a consignment shop owner being prevented from selling children's clothes while Wal Mart and Target keep right on doing so? How about the overreaches by border line Nazi Governors who target religious liberty by disallowing drive in church services while allowing every fast food drive through in the state to remain open? That one, by the way, has already been stooped by a court order.

Nothing about this is easy.

I think your posts would improve if wrote them in all upper case. Or just select parts, with some emphasis? For example:

How do you balance things like the story coming out of PA about a consignment shop owner being prevented from selling children's clothes while WAL MART and TARGET keep right on doing so? How about the OVERREACHESby border line NAZI GovernorS who target RELIGIOUS LIBERTY by disallowing drive in church services while allowing every fast food drive through in the state to remain open? That one, by the way, has already been stooped by a court order.

I think that would generate the "je ne sais quoi" you're otherwise missing.

[SuluSea]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe no fishing opener for Wiscons? Maybe stay at home for Memorial Day?
No events for Veterans at cemeteries!? [:@]

Evers Extends Wisconsin Stay-At-Home Order Until May 26
Gov. Tony Evers has extended Wisconsin’s stay-at-home order for another month.

Meanwhile in D.C. and Baltimore, meth clinics are open for business with lines around the block, needles to addicts, abortion industry is an essential service while some other medical services aren't happening, in D.C. pot stores are open. Hypocritical X infinity

States are letting out hardened criminals because it is too dangerous to be in prison but locking up the working class for being outdoors... Friends we live in a bizarro world....

[Canoerebel]

This (in bold font, below) is absolutely and demonstrably untrue.

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

…

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most of us love history, so that helps us keep this in perspective. While this is one of the gripping stories of our time it bears no resemblance to what our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced a century ago. They dealt with something like 40 million to 100 million Spanish flu deaths and a world war. Coronavirus mortality, in comparison, is an order of magnitude less, is projected to remain so, and most of us are safely at home or at work with plenty of food, power, entertainment, books, etc.

There's also the fact that originally this was projected to be exponentially more significant than its been or appears likely to be. Early on, as we've noted here many times, an Australian group came up with seven projections, the least of which called for 17 million deaths worldwide. Then there was a US estimate calling for 1.7 million deaths. Then came one for California alone to suffer 200k to 500k. Then the oft-sighted projection that the US would suffer 100k to 240k mortalities three weeks ago. Now, the estimates for the US have stabilized at around 60k to 70k. That's a great deal of death but so much fewer than early estimates and so much less than the Spanish flu...and the world survived that.

People are trying to foresee what the future holds and to get ready. Early projections will probably be about as accurate as they were for this round. But mankind is getting a grip on this, through lots of trial and error and guesswork and deductive reasoning and testing. We flattened the curve, which was the dominant approach advocated early on. And it's good that we'll now test various measures of easing, while many/most hospitals have capacity to deal with flare ups. The knowledge gained will be useful when/if the next round comes.

The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.

….

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.

On the bare face of it this statement seems deeply troubling. Around 50 million people died of Spanish Flu worldwide. 70-80M died in WW2. Lets say Covid-19 eventually gets to 5M deaths worldwide (it is currently at 0.18M). Even before we factor in population inflation, would today's deaths be 10+ times more important just because they are happening now rather than a century/80 years ago?

Going a little more towards what I think you were trying to say - was the loss of a life in the early 20th century really 10x less affecting for the family/loved ones of the deceased because people 100 years ago were so much more desensitized to premature death?

Getting closest to what I think you are saying (this relates more to the Spanish Flu deaths than those in WW2) do you think that the governments of the time were so much less caring of the welfare of their citizens that a death toll 10x higher than a deeply pessimistic Covid-19 prediction would have been equally acceptable?

Even that last suggestion is pretty extreme and requiring of further evidencing rather than a simple prima facie statement

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Interesting that while Sweden has seen a 12% increase in weekly deaths, there has *not* been an overwhelming of non-covid/uncertain deaths. IIRC I believe they have done well in terms of making sure their health care system was not overwhelmed.

I'm not buying that apologia. Through their laissez-faire attitude, they let the virus into half of their Stockholm-area nursing homes. Extraordinary death rate in those most susceptible.

The population is being used as a guinea pig to further the pet theories of their state epidemiologist, whose ouster is being sought by most of the prominent academic medical minds in the country.

When an 85 year-old gets this thing, their death is acute or peracute. So voila! No strain on the system by having someone fight for their lives on a ventilator for 14 days if they die acutely.

Their cumulative death rate/M will be the proof in the pudding. Compared to Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland, they've done very poorly for themselves.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: SuluSea

People are sick but no doubt we've had epidemics before but I can't shake the feeling that this is another hoax in a long line of them perpetrated by the 'mainstream' media the last 3 and a half years.

We have rights given by our forefathers (the Framers of the Constitution) and ain't no one taken mine away.

Ben Franklin said it best..."This [the U.S. Constitution] is likely to be administered for a course of years and then end in despotism... when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic government, being incapable of any other."

A wise man and seems like he would be fun company. He is on my list of 5 people from history to spend a evening with.

Why spend the evening? He would go to bed early - with a young lady, of course.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: SuluSea

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe no fishing opener for Wiscons? Maybe stay at home for Memorial Day?
No events for Veterans at cemeteries!? [:@]

Evers Extends Wisconsin Stay-At-Home Order Until May 26
Gov. Tony Evers has extended Wisconsin’s stay-at-home order for another month.

Meanwhile in D.C. and Baltimore, meth clinics are open for business with lines around the block, needles to addicts,

Practically, heroin addicts using in the community are a massive at risk population - they are sharing drug paraphernalia, much more likely to be living with chronic underlying health conditions and much less able to adhere to social distancing (both due to their living conditions and because their addiction forces them onto the streets to get their next fix).

From a community perspective they are the demographic that is least possible to isolate/quarantine - particularly if you close down the one form of monitoring/control you have via their engagement with opioid replacement therapy or with needle exchange programs.

In terms of their own health outcomes whether they should be left to reap what they have sown is a moral judgement for you to make for yourself. But for epidemiological purposes it doesn't matter if a 'law-abiding' citizen catches the virus from their child bringing it back from school or from a junkie that has sneezed all over a cornershop counter a few hours prior. If you have a demographic that is predisposed to spread the virus you have to try and find a way to deal with it.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




While I play around with the notion occasionally, my wife has made it abundantly clear that she has no intention of being a politician's wife. So you can dispense with your "Chickenboy for President" bumper stickers I guess*.

*But she can't stop a write in ballot drive. [;)]

How about Emperor for Life?

What do I look like, Xi Jinping? Vladimir Putin? Kim jon Fat?

Chickenboy Man. [:D]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: witpqs





During the Roman triumphs (parades celebrating military victories) they had someone tasked to stand at the general's ear whispering (paraphrased) "you are only mortal" so the accolades (ancient Pulitzer Prize) didn't go to his head.

Also because of pries and awards like that, reporters strive to outdo each other, get a scoop, and/or to try to increase their following. All that to make them feel important and relevant, instead of actually reporting the news. Walter Cronkite at least did not let his political leanings interfere with his reporting.

Sorry. Not sure what you guys are talking about here. What doesn't help? The rampant misinformation, from any source to any receiver. The article calling it out seemed fine. Sorry for being too terse to be clear. Misinformation sent to people's cell phones aiming to incite panic? Or the article looking into it?

Having read the article it seems a good piece of journalism commenting on and researching about what happened with these messages. This is apparently a new method of disseminating information, and quite worrying.

So what is the complaint?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/p ... e=Homepage

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The part of this article I was able to read before the paywall popped up was reasonable but the editor of the NYT told his own newsroom they showed bias during the 2016 election. Like we needed him to tell us that. [:)] The NYT editorial board is a diversity check-list of Lefty lunatics.

American conservatives don't trust the NYT. Of course, there are the occasional "random acts of journalism" and the Times gets the best leaked government swamp stories

That's a keeper.