OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

With respect to the virus, most politicians will do their best to get it right because most of them value human life and making the right decision when lives are at stake. There's a tough, complicated balancing of interests and risks, so there will be different approaches.

Underlying this desire to promote the public welfare is the knowledge that everything done will be scrutinized, that opponents and media will jump on mistakes or perceived mistakes, and that political careers could well end if decisions are wrong.

When leaders make tough calls it will usually be because they think it's the right call. When Gov. Cuomo takes action for New York, he believes it's for the best (certainly influenced by his worldviews). Ditto the governor of Arkansas or Texas or Massachusetts. These are not dumb people, none of them want people to die, and all of them are trying to navigate uncharted waters.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


Therein lies the crux of the challenge within the US with regards to COVID 19.

Too independent to accept legislation restricting personal freedoms, but insufficient social cohesion to remove the need for legislation .

Fundamentally, local (i.e. state and county governments) have lots of leeway to enforce restrictions in the name of public safety and always have. The Federal Government should not domestically.

How it is supposed to work is the county competes against county for the best method, state against state.

With Covid we are seeing that writ large as the individual states responses is greatly varied. There are going to be tremendous economic sea changes as this settles out which I don't think a lot of people have thought about let alone the very obvious political changes.

I would post something but some might consider it too political and I couldn't see his reply.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: obvert

Constantly trumpeting your political position is irrelevant and boring.

Frankly I find it to be a refreshing counterpoint to the never ending drivel of blithering village idiocy coming from the leftists.

A fine example of how one can strive to keep this thread "non political".

We all understand all too well that your interpretation of keeping the thread "non political" is allowing the leftists to get in their digs without the conservatives being allowed to offer any counter.

Note: where was your criticism of the post I responded to?


listening to the crickets........

[MakeeLearn]

U.S. Airstrikes Hit All-Time High as Coronavirus Spreads in Somalia
April 22 2020

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/22/cor ... irstrikes/


"The spike in U.S. airstrikes comes as the number of Covid-19 cases in Somalia is similarly rising. On April 8, there were 21 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in Somalia.

As of Wednesday, there were 286. Most of those infected have no history of travel abroad, indicating local transmission of the disease and worrying prospects for the future — especially among the many internally displaced persons, or IDPs, who have lost their homes to the ongoing conflict between al-Shabab and the Federal Government of Somalia, which is backed by the United States."

[MakeeLearn]

Study: High Blood Pressure, Obesity Are Most Common Comorbidities in COVID-19 Patients
A new study of thousands of patients in New York also pinpoints diabetes as a disease that was most commonly seen alongside COVID-19.
April 22, 2020, at 2:53 p.m.


https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest- ... s-patients


"sing data from electronic health records, researchers from the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research examined the clinical course, characteristics and outcomes of 5,700 patients who were hospitalized in 12 Northwell Health hospitals in New York City, Long Island and Westchester County, New York, between March 1 and April 4.

Among the 5,350 patients who presented with a comorbid condition, more than 3,000 – or nearly 57% – had high blood pressure, while 41.7% were obese and 33.8% had diabetes, according to the study. Overall, the median age of patients was 63 years old, about 60% were male and on average, patients were discharged within four days. "

[MakeeLearn]

Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area
April 22, 2020


https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2765184


"Question What are the characteristics, clinical presentation, and outcomes of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the US?

Findings In this case series that included 5700 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the New York City area, the most common comorbidities were hypertension, obesity, and diabetes. Among patients who were discharged or died (n = 2634), 14.2% were treated in the intensive care unit, 12.2% received invasive mechanical ventilation, 3.2% were treated with kidney replacement therapy, and 21% died."

[MakeeLearn]

what is that bag made out of.... SUPER SPECIAL MATERIAL?

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

With Covid we are seeing that writ large as the individual states responses is greatly varied. There are going to be tremendous economic sea changes as this settles out which I don't think a lot of people have thought about let alone the very obvious political changes.

People - myself included (professionally) - are thinking of this non stop. [8D]

We simply do not know the answers (yet)

The real challenge is far less political and far more 'fundamental changes' in consumer / industrial / commercial behavior.

The real ponders:

(i) will human consumer behavior change? Does this mean 'shopping at the mall or seeing a movie' are permanently things of the past ? What is the downstream impact on Business types that rely on 'congregation' ? Tourism ? Or does it slowly restore back towards historical averages - that after an initial period a high percentage of 'consumers' return to normal patterns after a time ?
2008/2009 are historical presidents but may not apply for much different reasons. Is Netflix / Amazon / Shopify more dominant than ever ?

(ii) the world over the last 20 years has significantly progressed towards a global interdependent supply chain in everything from food to auto parts..... or in Economics 101 tradition 'guns to butter'
Will Business - perhaps responding to the Business costs of interruption (just in time delivery) - or even responding to consumer demand - reverse course on global supply chain management ? Will accepting a 'slightly higher cost per widget sourced locally' become an important part of Business Continuity Planning for everything from cars through diary ?

(iii) The Oil glut and storage issue may be a much longer story. Not withstanding production cuts from OPEC and Russia - if consumer and business behavior changes we may not need as much oil for some time. Surplus stocks will take longer to use up especially if production does not stop. Russia 'minimum estimated price' to support Governmental Revenues and program spending is USD $34 per barrel and Saudi's 'minimum estimated price' is USD $28 ( not exact quotes but something along those lines). How / What will the Russian Nation / Saudi Nation react when they cannot support current governmental expenditures over a prolonged period ?

However gasoline at USD $1.00 / gallon CAD $0.70 / Litre ($2.80 per US Gallon) - sows seeds of economic recovery immediatly.

Every roll of Toilet paper must be delivered by Train / Truck to the local store. Delivery expenses have declined 30% (gas / driver / insurance) and net cost of the product can be impacted up to 12%

Add 12% profit margin to every roll of toilet paper. Every autopart. Everything that must be delivered. It wont all be passed on to consumers - Corporate profitability will be quickly restored in some aspects given the glut.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Macclan, long time no see! I just mentioned you in here this a.m. (misspelling your name as McLean). Didn't you have to self-isolate or didn't you wonder if you had symptoms about four weeks ago? After that post, I didn't see you again until now, so I wondered if you were doing okay.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area
April 22, 2020


https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2765184


"Question What are the characteristics, clinical presentation, and outcomes of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the US?

Findings In this case series that included 5700 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the New York City area, the most common comorbidities were hypertension, obesity, and diabetes. Among patients who were discharged or died (n = 2634), 14.2% were treated in the intensive care unit, 12.2% received invasive mechanical ventilation, 3.2% were treated with kidney replacement therapy, and 21% died."

In other words: phat, sweet, and over pressurized people need to be concerned. [X(][:@]

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area
April 22, 2020


https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2765184


"Question What are the characteristics, clinical presentation, and outcomes of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the US?

Findings In this case series that included 5700 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the New York City area, the most common comorbidities were hypertension, obesity, and diabetes. Among patients who were discharged or died (n = 2634), 14.2% were treated in the intensive care unit, 12.2% received invasive mechanical ventilation, 3.2% were treated with kidney replacement therapy, and 21% died."

In other words: phat, sweet, and over pressurized people need to be concerned. [X(][:@]

Very insightful![:D]

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



Hey, Macclan, long time no see! I just mentioned you in here this a.m. (misspelling your name as McLean). Didn't you have to self-isolate or didn't you wonder if you had symptoms about four weeks ago? After that post, I didn't see you again until now, so I wondered if you were doing okay.

Thank you Canoerebel

I did self isolate 2 weeks starting March 6 - as I came into direct contact with a primary carrier - direct source - International Traveller.

I was very fortunate - demonstrating no symptoms or illness - in so far as I know. I had a bit of a cold but to this day I do not know if (i) atypical symptoms - light case or (ii) regular run of the mill flu - which is still possible to get.

Testing 'that early in the game' was not available - and now there is no need - or more importantly other people need it more urgently.

Since then its working at home. Now I fully understand why my dog knaws the furniture when at home all day long [8D]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


Therein lies the crux of the challenge within the US with regards to COVID 19.

Too independent to accept legislation restricting personal freedoms, but insufficient social cohesion to remove the need for legislation .

Fundamentally, local (i.e. state and county governments) have lots of leeway to enforce restrictions in the name of public safety and always have. The Federal Government should not domestically.

How it is supposed to work is the county competes against county for the best method, state against state.

With Covid we are seeing that writ large as the individual states responses is greatly varied. There are going to be tremendous economic sea changes as this settles out which I don't think a lot of people have thought about let alone the very obvious political changes.

I would post something but some might consider it too political and I couldn't see his reply.

DM me, it sounds interesting.[:)]

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

With Covid we are seeing that writ large as the individual states responses is greatly varied. There are going to be tremendous economic sea changes as this settles out which I don't think a lot of people have thought about let alone the very obvious political changes.

People - myself included (professionally) - are thinking of this non stop. [8D]

We simply do not know the answers (yet)

The real challenge is far less political and far more 'fundamental changes' in consumer / industrial / commercial behavior.

The real ponders:

(i) will human consumer behavior change? Does this mean 'shopping at the mall or seeing a movie' are permanently things of the past ? What is the downstream impact on Business types that rely on 'congregation' ? Tourism ? Or does it slowly restore back towards historical averages - that after an initial period a high percentage of 'consumers' return to normal patterns after a time ?
2008/2009 are historical presidents but may not apply for much different reasons. Is Netflix / Amazon / Shopify more dominant than ever ?

Did humanity eschew forever social gathering in the wake of the Spanish Flu?

Will some habits be changed forever, sure, but in time, given enough of it, humanity will revert to its basic need to congregate.

Frankly, as the quintessential loner, its something I have never truly understood, but most humans seem to suffer from this 'need'.

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Did humanity eschew forever social gathering in the wake of the Spanish Flu?

Will some habits be changed forever, sure, but in time, given enough of it, humanity will revert to its basic need to congregate.

Frankly, as the quintessential loner, its something I have never truly understood, but most humans seem to suffer from this 'need'.

That is a fair observation Hans - LMAO - nice self disclosure.[8D]

However congregation economically verses socially can be differentiated.

What we fundamentally had / lacked circa 1919

(i) 4G wireless and the 'internet of things' which was already changing consumer behaviors to various degrees. Social behaviors as well but perhaps less pronounced.

(ii) People in 1919 were generally born / raised / toiled / died within a 50 mile radius. Not so anymore. Everything you bought / did was in an immediate radius.

Sporting Venues / Events may be the litmus test in the immediate short term.

Are you prepared to Pay Per View Stream every Baseball game / Football game / Basketball / "English Football" for my cousins like Warsprite / Hockey ?? Especially when the leagues play in empty stadiums through phase 1 and phase 2 until such time as the 'perfect world wide distribution of antibodies / vacine' ?

(Hockey should be obvious - just do it - Toronto Maple Leafs)

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

With Covid we are seeing that writ large as the individual states responses is greatly varied. There are going to be tremendous economic sea changes as this settles out which I don't think a lot of people have thought about let alone the very obvious political changes.

People - myself included (professionally) - are thinking of this non stop. [8D]

We simply do not know the answers (yet)

The real challenge is far less political and far more 'fundamental changes' in consumer / industrial / commercial behavior.

The real ponders:

(i) will human consumer behavior change? Does this mean 'shopping at the mall or seeing a movie' are permanently things of the past ? What is the downstream impact on Business types that rely on 'congregation' ? Tourism ? Or does it slowly restore back towards historical averages - that after an initial period a high percentage of 'consumers' return to normal patterns after a time ?
2008/2009 are historical presidents but may not apply for much different reasons. Is Netflix / Amazon / Shopify more dominant than ever ?

(ii) the world over the last 20 years has significantly progressed towards a global interdependent supply chain in everything from food to auto parts..... or in Economics 101 tradition 'guns to butter'
Will Business - perhaps responding to the Business costs of interruption (just in time delivery) - or even responding to consumer demand - reverse course on global supply chain management ? Will accepting a 'slightly higher cost per widget sourced locally' become an important part of Business Continuity Planning for everything from cars through diary ?

(iii) The Oil glut and storage issue may be a much longer story. Not withstanding production cuts from OPEC and Russia - if consumer and business behavior changes we may not need as much oil for some time. Surplus stocks will take longer to use up especially if production does not stop. Russia 'minimum estimated price' to support Governmental Revenues and program spending is USD $34 per barrel and Saudi's 'minimum estimated price' is USD $28 ( not exact quotes but something along those lines). How / What will the Russian Nation / Saudi Nation react when they cannot support current governmental expenditures over a prolonged period ?

However gasoline at USD $1.00 / gallon CAD $0.70 / Litre ($2.80 per US Gallon) - sows seeds of economic recovery immediatly.

Every roll of Toilet paper must be delivered by Train / Truck to the local store. Delivery expenses have declined 30% (gas / driver / insurance) and net cost of the product can be impacted up to 12%

Add 12% profit margin to every roll of toilet paper. Every autopart. Everything that must be delivered. It wont all be passed on to consumers - Corporate profitability will be quickly restored in some aspects given the glut.

I think, this being such an erudite group, we are the exception that proves the rule. My monitoring of the local situation here in Pennsylvania there is scant discussion.

To a degree, I think you hit the nail on the head with point one:

Will there be a great business and human migration? Of course.

How in the world can anyone start a new business especially in a shutdown state? The simple answer is a business that can weather another shutdown or even profit by it. Other business will see wholesale business model changes as you allude to. I suspect starting a new business will be put off by those not independently wealthy, perhaps this leads to a huge restructuring of small business equity positions. The underground economy will certainly thrive.

Point three will surely be offset by increased cost of doing business including but not limited to additional employees to sanitize and additional insurance expense. I can only shudder at what that will cost, I also shudder to think how the states will change the unemployment insurance programs (which here in Pennsylvania is very fraudulent). In PA you will be able to continue collecting unemployment insurance even if offered your job back...the Gov'r's advice is for companies to simply pay more.

Anyhow, I see very little discussion of any of this.

[HansBolter]

Sporting events, in order to keep leagues and teams from collapsing, may well have to restart playing in empty venues, but this will be difficult to sustain and the level of play will suffer tremendously.

Nothing quite like the roaring crowd as a source of motivation to excel.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Sporting events, in order to keep leagues and teams from collapsing, may well have to restart playing in empty venues, but this will be difficult to sustain and the level of play will suffer tremendously.

Nothing quite like the roaring crowd as a source of motivation to excel.

Some teams and spectators (like those of my beloved Oakland A's) won't notice a difference with empty stands. [;)]

[Cheesesteak]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Did humanity eschew forever social gathering in the wake of the Spanish Flu?

Will some habits be changed forever, sure, but in time, given enough of it, humanity will revert to its basic need to congregate.

Frankly, as the quintessential loner, its something I have never truly understood, but most humans seem to suffer from this 'need'.

That is a fair observation Hans - LMAO - nice self disclosure.[8D]

However congregation economically verses socially can be differentiated.

What we fundamentally had / lacked circa 1919

(i) 4G wireless and the 'internet of things' which was already changing consumer behaviors to various degrees. Social behaviors as well but perhaps less pronounced.

(ii) People in 1919 were generally born / raised / toiled / died within a 50 mile radius. Not so anymore. Everything you bought / did was in an immediate radius.

Sporting Venues / Events may be the litmus test in the immediate short term.

Are you prepared to Pay Per View Stream every Baseball game / Football game / Basketball / "English Football" for my cousins like Warsprite / Hockey ?? Especially when the leagues play in empty stadiums through phase 1 and phase 2 until such time as the 'perfect world wide distribution of antibodies / vacine' ?

(Hockey should be obvious - just do it - Toronto Maple Leafs)

The sheer number of variables is staggering, let alone how to properly weigh them. If I had to guess, there will be a gradual reversion to BAU going into 2021. Though grounded in some of the financial projections I've heard at work, that's still just a guess.

Fun fact: my wife was in the process of opening a small business right as all this started going down. she literally was due to sign the lease on a commercial space as stay-at-home recommendations were going into effect here in Virginia.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

With Covid we are seeing that writ large as the individual states responses is greatly varied. There are going to be tremendous economic sea changes as this settles out which I don't think a lot of people have thought about let alone the very obvious political changes.

People - myself included (professionally) - are thinking of this non stop. [8D]

We simply do not know the answers (yet)

The real challenge is far less political and far more 'fundamental changes' in consumer / industrial / commercial behavior.

The real ponders:

(i) will human consumer behavior change? Does this mean 'shopping at the mall or seeing a movie' are permanently things of the past ? What is the downstream impact on Business types that rely on 'congregation' ? Tourism ? Or does it slowly restore back towards historical averages - that after an initial period a high percentage of 'consumers' return to normal patterns after a time ?
2008/2009 are historical presidents but may not apply for much different reasons. Is Netflix / Amazon / Shopify more dominant than ever ?

Did humanity eschew forever social gathering in the wake of the Spanish Flu?

Will some habits be changed forever, sure, but in time, given enough of it, humanity will revert to its basic need to congregate.

Frankly, as the quintessential loner, its something I have never truly understood, but most humans seem to suffer from this 'need'.

Yes, it was quite fundamentally changed economically. Prior to the Spanish Flu and WW1 the economic interdependence was huge, levels never seen before.

It isn't till relatively recently that the world achieved a higher level of economic interdependence. We are talking about decades of huge economic changes...sure people will socialize again, given time, but capital, infrastructure, trade, will not.