OT: Corona virus

[MakeeLearn]

"The virus has been particularly devastating for elderly people - people over age 60 account for about 97 percent of all deaths in Quebec so far - and has highlighted systemic problems in the healthcare system, including underfunding and chronic staffing shortages."


Canada: How Quebec elder care homes became coronavirus hotspots

Over half of the more than 1,243 COVID-19 deaths in Canadian province of Quebec have been in long-term care centres.
2 hours ago
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featu ... 37289.html

[MakeeLearn]

It would be very interesting to see statistics on the workers in Quebec elder care homes.

[HansBolter]

Riddle me this.....

Why is it that some countries only have one large dot for the entire country, like Russia and Brazil, but others are completely covered over with multiple dots for locales within the country like the USA?

Seems to me to create a misleading interpretation of severity.

[RangerJoe]

Maybe it is just the total number in that country where the country does not state where the cases are actually located.

[Lovejoy]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Riddle me this.....

Why is it that some countries only have one large dot for the entire country, like Russia and Brazil, but others are completely covered over with multiple dots for locales within the country like the USA?

Seems to me to create a misleading interpretation of severity.

I think it also might be the case that the map relies on figures supplied by each country's government. I don't know about Brazil, but a couple of my Russian friends told me that the Russian Govt's figures should not be trusted.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Cuomo Says 21 Percent of Those Tested in N.Y.C. Had Virus Antibodies
Apr 23, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyre ... pdate.html

"About 21 percent of roughly 1,300 people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week tested positive, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday.

The results come from a state program that randomly tested 3,000 supermarket customers across New York State. Nearly 14 percent of those tests came back positive, Mr. Cuomo said.

If those numbers translate to the true incidence of coronavirus, they would mean that more than 1.7 million people in New York City, and more than 2.6 million people statewide, have already been infected.

These numbers are far greater than the 250,000 confirmed cases of the virus itself that the state has recorded.

They would also mean that the fatality rate from the virus is relatively low — about 0.5 percent, Mr. Cuomo said."

No comments???????????????????

This goes along with the studies coming out of California.

I followed the article and have some comments as I see them:

Here's a more detailed discussion of the serology testing than Cuomo's briefing summary:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyre ... st-ny.html

First off, the testing was not a random subset of the population of either the City of New York or the State of New York. It was voluntary testing of 'shoppers'. As stated in some observations of the results, it did not include children, teenagers and older adults that may have been sheltering in place. Supermarket shoppers are probably not a representative sample when a state is in lockdown.

Sampling 3,000 people out of a 14M population is a sample rate of .002% of the state population. Statistically significant? Not even close. Not even with a test that is 100% sensitive and 100% specific-which this serology test is most certainly not. It gets even worse when you start talking about interpretation of some of the commercial 'quicky' serology tests that will soon be flooding the market.

None of the relevant health histories were taken from the shoppers. How many of these people had a FUO (Fever of Unknown Origin) or other clinical signs going back to-say-December 1, 2019? Dunno. So now you lost your 'asymptomatic' versus 'symptomatic' distinction. Were any of the shoppers known positive by RT-PCR (and recovered)? Dunno. Now you lost your correlation between RT-PCR (virus positive) and convalescent serum response too.

The tests, while conducted in a respected State laboratory, were intentionally interpreted to err on the side of caution. Namely what constitutes a 'positive' finding for the test. I couldn't find details on what the test parameter cutoffs were for calibration purposes, but this likely understates the number of people with serologic antibody titers-they may have been below the cutoff in their profile.

There appear to be disparate results between NYC samples and 'outstate' samples: 21% of NYC, 17% in Long Island, 12% in Westchester / Rockland and less than 4% in the rest of the state.

There was also an apt quote from one of the public health folks that cautioned against using antibody testing as a criterion to allow people into the world, "To use it as a fulcrum for when someone can travel or work...we have to be extremely careful as a society in doing that." Little is known about the meaning of being seropositive with respect to immunity or resistance to future infections.

It will be extremely problematic to try to apply these disparate findings to any sort of statewide 'back to work' edict. If only 21% of New Yorkers have been 'exposed' to the virus, is that sufficient for herd immunity? No. You probably need ~70% for that. So NYC is less than a third of the way 'there'. Anybody here think NYC can stay closed for another 6 months? Plus, shelter-in-place edicts will slow the community spread of the virus, making it tougher to 'hit the numbers' for herd immunity. If the target is 70% before herd immunity is established, NYC may *never* get there with their extreme quarantine.

And what about the rest of the state? 4% seroconversion outside of NYC? That's nothing. How can the governor of the state apply local observations about NYC to the greater population with less than 1/5 of the seroconversion? Keep the state closed down until the outstate seroconversion rate is up to 70%?

So, to summarize: You have non-random sampling of residents of your state. You get different results depending on geography. Not a surprise there, as your virus testing and case/mortality data already noted the glaring difference between NYC and everywhere else. Nothing about the data suggests that you are anywhere close to 'herd immunity'-on a novel pathogen such as this-one doesn't know what herd immunity numbers will even look like anyways. Per the quote above, you can't use this data as a decision making tool regarding a return to travel or work or some 'immunity passport'.

Earlier in the thread I cautioned about the overinterpretation of the meaning of serology results. This study highlights some of the fundamental problems using this retrospective data (serologic antibodies are always retrospective data re: exposures) to make meaningful decisions moving forward. Without proper stratification of your sample and profiling samples relative to clinical history you cannot derive meaning from the study for prospective decisions. Farther still to using this data for a disparate and heterogenous state population.

IFR is lower than initially thought? Not a surprise. That happens in lots of diseases (sometimes it's higher too). Big whoop. Other than an "I told you so" gotcha moment, how does this help making decisions moving forward beyond what you already know?

So is it all garbage? No. But without some of the needed study design and implementation, it's impossible to meaningfully interpret or use as a decision making tool. Therefore these studies will be rendered a scientific curiosity or a 'gee whiz'.

We will have to move forward with incomplete information. The 'numbers' won't obviate our need to make tough and balanced decisions. And we have to be on guard for overreliance on these sorts of tests to be some sort of sop for the masses.

Those are my thoughts.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


So is it garbage? No. But without some of the needed study design and implementation, it's impossible to meaningfully interpret or use as a decision making tool. Therefore these studies will be rendered a scientific curiosity or a 'gee whiz'.

That seems to cover the majority.

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus updates: America's death toll passes 50,000
April 24, 2020

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/co ... 020-04-24/


"The death toll from the coronavirus in the United States passed 50,000 Friday morning, accounting for more than 25% of COVID-19 deaths globally, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University."

[MakeeLearn]

Covid-19 latest: Up to half of deaths in Europe were in care homes


23 April 2020


https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... are-homes/


"Up to half of those who have died from covid-19 in Europe were in care homes, according to Hans Kluge, the World Health Organization (WHO) regional director for Europe. Describing the finding as “deeply concerning”, Kluge said that many care homes may be “providing pathways for the virus to spread” and the problem has been made worse because care home workers are “overstretched, underpaid and unprotected.”

Yesterday, the UK government’s chief medical adviser Chris Witty said it was hard to prevent deaths in care homes “sadly because this is a very vulnerable group.”"

[MakeeLearn]

Sugary Drinks Kill 184,000 People Every Year
June 29, 2015

https://www.livescience.com/51385-sugar ... eaths.html


"Sugary drinks cause 184,000 deaths worldwide annually, including 25,000 deaths in the United States, according to a new study.

The finding — a revised estimate of numbers first presented at a scientific meeting in 2013 — represents a tally of deaths from diabetes, heart disease and cancer that scientists say can be directly attributed to the consumption of sweetened sodas, fruit drinks, sports/energy drinks and iced teas.

The numbers imply that sugary drinks can cause as many deaths annually as the flu."

[MakeeLearn]

Given sugary drinks’ health dangers, why does the Mayo Clinic still sell them?
07/13/2015

https://www.minnpost.com/second-opinion ... sell-them/


"In fact, the study identified the United States as having the fourth-highest death rate associated with sugar-sweetened drinks: 125 per million adults per year. Mexico topped the list with 405 deaths per million adults, followed by South Africa (153 per million) and Morocco (137 per million). "

[MakeeLearn]

‘We will not have a vaccine by next winter.’ Like Spanish flu of 1918, CDC says second wave of coronavirus could be ‘even more difficult.’ Will herd immunity help?
April 24, 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-wi ... 2020-04-22

"Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for more than three decades, said Wednesday, “We will have coronavirus in the fall. I am convinced of that.” He previously said the “ultimate game changer” will be a vaccine, but that could take 12 to 18 months."

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As far as I know there is no vaccine for any of the coronaviruses. Some which include the common cold.

[MakeeLearn]

Nearly All Patients Hospitalized With Covid-19 Had Chronic Health Issues, Study Finds

Only 6 percent of patients at one New York area health system had no chronic conditions. Hypertension, obesity and diabetes were common.

April 23, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/heal ... -risk.html


"A new study of thousands of hospitalized coronavirus patients in the New York City area, the epicenter of the outbreak in the United States, has found that nearly all of them had at least one major chronic health condition, and most — 88 percent — had at least two.

Though earlier research has shown chronic conditions like obesity, high blood pressure and diabetes are common risk factors for severe Covid-19, the ubiquity of serious medical conditions in these patients was striking: Only 6 percent of them had no underlying health conditions."

[MakeeLearn]

These are the latest coronavirus case numbers by community in L.A. County
April 23, 2020


https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... l-a-county


"Barbara Ferrer, the county’s public health director, on Thursday confirmed 68 new coronavirus-linked deaths and 1,081 new COVID-19 cases. The county has now recorded nearly 800 deaths and more than 17,500 confirmed cases.

Of those who most recently died, 51 people were over age 65, 11 people were 41 to 65 and three people were 18 to 40. Ages were not available for the other cases. Of all those who have died from coronavirus infection in the county, 89% had some kind of underlying health condition, Ferrer said."

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

"Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for more than three decades, said Wednesday, “We will have coronavirus in the fall. I am convinced of that.” He previously said the “ultimate game changer” will be a vaccine, but that could take 12 to 18 months."

What mystifies me is how the vaccine "could take from 12 to 18 months" since the beginning of this emergency. Let's say that we started to took things seriously since the end of February. The vaccine should now be 10 to 16 months away. Simply moving the goalpost everytime the thing is mentioned is not very reassuring...

As far as I know there is no vaccine for any of the coronaviruses. Some which include the common cold.

I'm making a wild guess here: events like WWI, Pearl Harbor and 9/11 literally changed the World. Now there is a new menace that (I'm being cynical here) can cripple the economy, the collective psyche, and flatten whole nations. I wouldn't be surprised if the new concentrated BIG effort will be to find either a cure or a way to prevent another pandemic. Finding an overall prevention for a rapidly mutating virus like the flu's one wasn't worth, in the past, the time and the money (leading to the "plan B" effort of producing vaccines for the strain of the year). Now it is.

Well, we shall see.

[MakeeLearn]

The Cure's new album may be delayed due to coronavirus pandemic
7 hrs ago

https://www.stltoday.com/people/the-cur ... 08dbd.html

"The Cure's new album could be delayed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The 'Friday I'm In Love' hitmakers' had hinted at releasing the long awaited follow-up to 2008's '4:13 Dream' later this year, but the band's keyboardist, Roger O'Donnell, has admitted it might have to be pushed back.

In an interview with MusicWeek, he said: "I'm sure what's going on now is going to [delay] it, but it's pretty much finished.

"But who knows what's going to happen tomorrow?"

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

I'm making a wild guess here: events like WWI, Pearl Harbor and 9/11 literally changed the World. Now there is a new menace that (I'm being cynical here) can cripple the economy, the collective psyche, and flatten whole nations. I wouldn't be surprised if the new concentrated BIG effort will be to find either a cure or a way to prevent another pandemic. Finding an overall prevention for a rapidly mutating virus like the flu's one wasn't worth, in the past, the time and the money (leading to the "plan B" effort of producing vaccines for the strain of the year). Now it is.

Well, we shall see.

The Big Three you mention were things that could be dealt with in a direct manner.
There has been a concerted world wide effort to find a cure for cancer for almost the entirety of my lifetime with no success yet.
I don't think (and I am not a medical professional) that fighting diseases is quite as direct a process as the referenced Big Three.



Yes, I changed the red button back to green.

[MakeeLearn]

Farmers start to kill pigs they can't sell to slaughterhouses due to closures
April 23, 2020 / 3:00 AM



https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/04 ... 587596149/



"EVANSVILLE, Ind., April 23 (UPI) -- With coronavirus outbreaks closing slaughterhouses across the country, the American hog industry is running out of space to physically keep a backup of live pigs.

Hog farms are so crowded that producers are starting to euthanize their animals. "

[MakeeLearn]

Demand Soars At Food Banks While Farmers Have Too Much Food
April 20, 2020


https://wfpl.org/demand-soars-at-food-b ... much-food/


"Food banks and pantries across the Ohio Valley are seeing spiked demand as an unprecedented surge of people continue to file for unemployment benefits, with food banks facing weeks long delays to get certain products. Meanwhile, some farmers are facing a financial crisis, sitting on excess food they can’t sell — food that could be directed to food banks and pantries.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a $3 billion infusion to try to get surplus food to pantries. Those funds could eventually be put to use at pantries like one in west Kentucky."

[Macclan5]

On the Economic Front

Who knew? Fearless Millennials are cashing in on stocks as frightened Boomers cash out

Turns out "some of us" may have failed to understand them correctly.

The key point :

“Millennials are doing a great job,” Reeves said. “I think for the millennials we interact with, that reputation (as lousy investors) wouldn’t be fair at all. We’re seeing really good long-term investors and we’re seeing those that want to speculate do so in a by-and-large prudent way.”

Even more noteworthy is that Wealthsimple’s total number of clients increased by 54 per cent in March. In April, it has seen 7,000 new users per week. According to Reeves, 55 per cent of those new clients are under 34 years old

https://business.financialpost.com/inve ... oplay=true