OT: Corona virus

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Swiss children are toilet trained by two months, can blow their nose into a tissue at 3 months and they always use hand sanitizer afterward.

That's because their cheese as holes in it.

[Canoerebel]

It's surprising just how large the southern states are. Florida and Texas are givens, but Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee are big boys too.

By the way, I fell back into an old habit when I gave the Ga. stats above. A better way of putting it would be this: Georgia is the 8th biggest state but 11th in number of deaths. And Georgia mortality per million ranks 15th, about half the US average.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Ok that makes much more sense. I'm still not sure which careers have gone permanently so that people can't go back to them once the lockdown has lifted. In terms of the commitment in terms of training etc that would have put in to get going in their career I guess the big one would be airline pilots. Maybe chefs also? Finding it hard to think of other specific examples. Along slightly different lines I guess you have some small business owners who haven't left themselves with enough contingency funds to get through the lockdown.

Airline pilots might lose their certification by not flying the required number of hours in a period of time, but I think they can get recertified by several hours of training in a simulator followed by a flight or two with a check pilot on board. The airline could certainly try to not hire back the senior pilots to save money, but the senior pilots are the ones who take the newcomers under their wings and teach them the finer points of being a veteran pilot (decision points during delays, for example). And the Pilots Association is very strong - they would fight such a decision to terminate a pilot's employment without cause (other than the certification issue which is not in the pilot's control).

[Canoerebel]

Getting back to my original point, do any of you recall any criticisms in this thread of NYC policies? Or, for that matter, of the policies of any other hotspots in the northeast or in Europe? I don't, with one possible exception - some UK forumites have been self-critical a few times.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

With respect to Georgia, it has the 8th largest population in the nation (that's hard to believe but it's true). It currently ranks 15th in mortality/million.

Texas is the number 2 population in the nation. Y'all better believe that ****. 30 million of us. We rank 40th in Deaths/M at 22/M (New York is 50x that rate). Even Minnesota, with the Mayo clinic and their solid grounding in infectious disease control has twice our rate. We've done really well, but I can't believe Arkansas is doing better than us (@16/M!?!).

Given the info on population density and low rates of infection, it is beginning to look like outdoor temperature may be a bigger factor than I thought in checking this disease. Mountainous areas of a state would still have cases popping up but lowlands that have already have heat waves might only have occasional transmission if they are doing distancing right.
If that pans out, the economy could get some restart in summer while we figure out what to do in fall and winter.

[Canoerebel]

Bbfanboy, that's what I figured too. And I hope it proves helpful. But we've had a particularly wet and mild spring here in Georgia. My recollection is that the early studies showed that 86 degrees was a key threshold. We haven't hit that nor come anywhere close on a sustained basis. We've pretty much been in the 60s and 70s this entire month. Yet cases have dropped off drastically here. I don't think it's the weather, unless the virus is vulnerable in the 70s.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

With respect to Georgia, it has the 8th largest population in the nation (that's hard to believe but it's true). It currently ranks 15th in mortality/million.

Texas is the number 2 population in the nation. Y'all better believe that ****. 30 million of us. We rank 40th in Deaths/M at 22/M (New York is 50x that rate). Even Minnesota, with the Mayo clinic and their solid grounding in infectious disease control has twice our rate. We've done really well, but I can't believe Arkansas is doing better than us (@16/M!?!).

I also believe Texas accounts for 37% of the US Economy, has a separate electrical infrastructure and their high schools teach Texas History to boot![:)]

Yup.

Technically, our high schools don't teach Texas History. That's a 7th grade (middle school) class. 8th grade is U.S. History. 9th is World geography and 10th is World history.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Getting back to my original point, do any of you recall any criticisms in this thread of NYC policies? Or, for that matter, of the policies of any other hotspots in the northeast or in Europe? I don't, with one possible exception - some UK forumites have been self-critical a few times.

I haven't been critical of NYC policies. They're the epicenter of our outbreak and going through Hell. But I think I have been critical of some of the European governments-in a general way. I posted previously that there needed to be a deep soul searching of the public health system of some European countries (particularly those with a high death toll) and that some leaders need to fall on their swords and ask for forgiveness and / or resign when this is all over. I also expressed that I doubt that will happen.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

With respect to Georgia, it has the 8th largest population in the nation (that's hard to believe but it's true). It currently ranks 15th in mortality/million.

Texas is the number 2 population in the nation. Y'all better believe that ****. 30 million of us. We rank 40th in Deaths/M at 22/M (New York is 50x that rate). Even Minnesota, with the Mayo clinic and their solid grounding in infectious disease control has twice our rate. We've done really well, but I can't believe Arkansas is doing better than us (@16/M!?!).

Given the info on population density and low rates of infection, it is beginning to look like outdoor temperature may be a bigger factor than I thought in checking this disease. Mountainous areas of a state would still have cases popping up but lowlands that have already have heat waves might only have occasional transmission if they are doing distancing right.
If that pans out, the economy could get some restart in summer while we figure out what to do in fall and winter.

Yup.

Yesterday was 95F here. Today it's partly cloudy skies, light breeze and 81F. Lots of UV and heat to kill them little virus buggers.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Andre. I recall your comments. They struck me at the time as general observations suggesting a closer look later, not pointed criticisms of individual practices in other countries.

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Getting back to my original point, do any of you recall any criticisms in this thread of NYC policies? Or, for that matter, of the policies of any other hotspots in the northeast or in Europe? I don't, with one possible exception - some UK forumites have been self-critical a few times.

I haven't been critical of NYC policies. They're the epicenter of our outbreak and going through Hell. But I think I have been critical of some of the European governments-in a general way. I posted previously that there needed to be a deep soul searching of the public health system of some European countries (particularly those with a high death toll) and that some leaders need to fall on their swords and ask for forgiveness and / or resign when this is all over. I also expressed that I doubt that will happen.

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Texas is the number 2 population in the nation. Y'all better believe that ****. 30 million of us. We rank 40th in Deaths/M at 22/M (New York is 50x that rate). Even Minnesota, with the Mayo clinic and their solid grounding in infectious disease control has twice our rate. We've done really well, but I can't believe Arkansas is doing better than us (@16/M!?!).

Given the info on population density and low rates of infection, it is beginning to look like outdoor temperature may be a bigger factor than I thought in checking this disease. Mountainous areas of a state would still have cases popping up but lowlands that have already have heat waves might only have occasional transmission if they are doing distancing right.
If that pans out, the economy could get some restart in summer while we figure out what to do in fall and winter.

Yup.

Yesterday was 95F here. Today it's partly cloudy skies, light breeze and 81F. Lots of UV and heat to kill them little virus buggers.

All we need to do is get really sick folk to shoot up some Lysol - right? [:D][:D] Or maybe put them in a sauna...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Lowpe





I really wonder how that feeling would change if it cost them their careers. Not maliciously, but as a simple consequence of the virus and Govt actions, their careers would have to be reset to beginning...i.e. having to go retrain, re-certify, re-whatever and start back at a starting wage or even have to start a brand new career because of the Gov't classify which careers are safe and which are shut down.

I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.

I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?

Teachers at my school would not lose their career if they declined to report in mid-to-late May due to fears of catching coronavirus. They would not be in danger of losing their jobs. No different tune needed.

We would be going in for at most 2-3 weeks before summer break. This school is very protective of its faculty and staff. They would support those who for reasons of heath would not report.

Their careers would not be in any danger.

[Canoerebel]

This graph illustrates Italy's long struggle with the virus - making headway but a tough campaign.

[Lowpe]

This is being repeated across the country in lockdown states:

https://www.abc12.com/content/news/Henr ... 71881.html

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Getting back to my original point, do any of you recall any criticisms in this thread of NYC policies? Or, for that matter, of the policies of any other hotspots in the northeast or in Europe? I don't, with one possible exception - some UK forumites have been self-critical a few times.

I'd say that so far the only unqualified success stories in terms of large countries are Germany, Portugal and South Korea. Australia and NZ seem to have squashed the virus for the moment but I think it remains to be seen how much assistance they have had from the weather and from their geographical advantages. There are some Eastern European countries that seem to be doing well but I think that they may have had the advantage of being far earlier in their outbreaks when they locked down.

I think that otherwise pretty much everybody else looks pretty similar in terms of policy (Sweden excepted) and in serms of 'success'. As far as I can tell the US states with similar population densities to European countries are seeing similar deaths/M. Where those densities are far higher in NYC there are deaths/M much worse than what is being seen in Europe.

From a UK perspective there is definitely the criticism that we seemed to have a couple of weeks extra time on Italy which we could have spent getting proper testing up and running like Germany but instead spent it faffing around with ideas of herd immunity.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Getting back to my original point, do any of you recall any criticisms in this thread of NYC policies? Or, for that matter, of the policies of any other hotspots in the northeast or in Europe? I don't, with one possible exception - some UK forumites have been self-critical a few times.

I haven't been critical of NYC policies. They're the epicenter of our outbreak and going through Hell. But I think I have been critical of some of the European governments-in a general way. I posted previously that there needed to be a deep soul searching of the public health system of some European countries (particularly those with a high death toll) and that some leaders need to fall on their swords and ask for forgiveness and / or resign when this is all over. I also expressed that I doubt that will happen.

In terms of healthcare provision it's a difficult one. I think for a number of years it has been clear that the NHS has been running on fumes and needs more investment. However people haven't voted to change that - for some because the opposition has not been credible for the last few years and for some because they have prioritised low taxes/Brexit over NHS funding.

I mentioned above the failure of the UK government to take advantage of the extra time they had. However once that mistake was made I think the UK healthcare system has done really well to cobble together a response 'on the fly'. I think at one point those Washington predictions had us having c70k deaths and it now looks like it'll be closer to 30k.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive



I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.

I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?

Teachers at my school would not lose their career if they declined to report in mid-to-late May due to fears of catching coronavirus. They would not be in danger of losing their jobs. No different tune needed.

We would be going in for at most 2-3 weeks before summer break. This school is very protective of its faculty and staff. They would support those who for reasons of heath would not report.

Their careers would not be in any danger.

That is not my point. I am clearly unable to communicate it, so lets just disregard it.[:)]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
but instead spent it faffing around with ideas of herd immunity.

Herd immunity is one of only two proven scientific methods of dealing with a virus. I would not call it faffing around.

Social distancing, shutdowns, and flattening the curve are theories.

I am in no ways adverse to any experimentation, and I think that every community should experiment in ways they want to.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
but instead spent it faffing around with ideas of herd immunity.

Herd immunity is one of only two proven scientific methods of dealing with a virus. I would not call it faffing around.

Social distancing, shutdowns, and flattening the curve are theories.

I am in no ways adverse to any experimentation, and I think that every community should experiment in ways they want to.

Certainly at the time it had logic to it. But in the UK at least I don't think we ever had the health infrastructure in place to pull it off. I think that the question our government will face is how much overlap there was with the evidence for that becoming apparent and their persistence with the policy. Their argument at the moment is they changed policy as soon as the data changed (well actually they are trying to argue that it was never a policy in the first place but I think most in the UK have seen through that). I'm not sure that that will hold up to the evidence as it becomes available in the fullness of time.

For the moment I'd say that a herd immunity approach certainly wouldn't have resulted in less deaths and at this point the numbers would suggest (in hindsight) that the way to go was what they have done in Germany/S.Korea. Although whether Germany will be able to maintain that success once the rest of Europe lifts their lockdowns and start moving round the continent remains to be seen.

[obvert]

This is a new one. For me anyway. Anyone heard of viruses traveling on polution particles?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... SApp_Other