OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

Georgia and North Carolina share a common border, so if folks are driving from Franklin, NC, to Clayton, GA, to get a hairdo or haircut, that wouldn't be surprising. But if they're driving from Raleigh to Savannah, that would be noteworthy.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ICD-10 codes

U07.1 Confirmed Covid 19

J12.89 Viral pneumonia other cause

If you code the upper one first its COVID pneumonia, vice versa it's viral pneumonia. [:)]

The WHO tortured the entire world's medical community with these things so they sit in a fancy hotel in Geneva having cocktails and sushi talking about the numbers.

The WHO were justified in that torture - the statistics are important.

Easy for you to say. There is a code for "attack by Emperor Penguin, first encounter". Sometimes I code "Chagas disease" (South American parasitic disease) just for fun

Is there a code for "Close encounter, first kind"?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: mind_messing





The WHO were justified in that torture - the statistics are important.

Easy for you to say. There is a code for "attack by Emperor Penguin, first encounter". Sometimes I code "Chagas disease" (South American parasitic disease) just for fun

Not really, see for yourself - https://www.who.int/data/gho

Making that data of this nature accessible is absolutely critical in encouraging the research and modelling that make a serious contribution to health outcomes.

If it's painful on your end, that's because input control is needed in all good systems - garbage in, garbage out [:)]

No, I disagree. What benefit is it to know if the injury from an Emperor Penguin was a first or subsequent encounter? Or (as noted in a prior thread here) an injury sustained in a killer whale encounter?

Enormous effort goes into collecting data that either will not be used, or should not be used (but probably will be used if it costs taxpayer money to do so).

[fcooke]

The better half unleashed the DVR this evening. On came one of the Sunday morning shows. I will debate the reaction to this thing till the cows come home, but I found it a bit distasteful to listen/watch about how important getting one's hair color and nails sorted out is now......

All that said, we were planning on putting in a greenhouse this year - I am guessing the price of that might just have increased.

Our neighbors have been enjoying fishing for bass in our pond. Catch and release at the moment.......but you never know. The food supply chain issue is certainly hurting our local farmers. The US produces/tosses too much so likely not too big a challenge but I have to imagine that issue might really hurt some other countries if export/import on food supplies gets messed up.

[Cap Mandrake]

Well, you have to admit. Everyone's hair looks like caca. [:D]

Except for CR and I, who have stylish mullets.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Well, you have to admit. Everyone's hair looks like caca. [:D]

Except for CR and I, who have stylish mullets.

Only if you have hair . . .

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake




Easy for you to say. There is a code for "attack by Emperor Penguin, first encounter". Sometimes I code "Chagas disease" (South American parasitic disease) just for fun

Not really, see for yourself - https://www.who.int/data/gho

Making that data of this nature accessible is absolutely critical in encouraging the research and modelling that make a serious contribution to health outcomes.

If it's painful on your end, that's because input control is needed in all good systems - garbage in, garbage out [:)]

No, I disagree. What benefit is it to know if the injury from an Emperor Penguin was a first or subsequent encounter? Or (as noted in a prior thread here) an injury sustained in a killer whale encounter?

Enormous effort goes into collecting data that either will not be used, or should not be used (but probably will be used if it costs taxpayer money to do so).

If the Emperor penguins end up causing a lot in injuries, it would be documented and then the government could take steps to ban those highly dangerous animals . . .

[fcooke]

Doesn't really matter if we never see our fellow humans anymore [:'(]

I went to bed with the computer - I can watch some movies.

Stay sane all......

[Canoerebel]

US mortality dropped significantly today to the lowest level since March 31. New York and New Jersey had big drops. Eight states reported no deaths today.

A quick scan of ABC, CNN, NBC, CBS and New York Times websites shows uniformly negative covid news stories. Seriously - every story is negative - how will we handle summer, what's the matter with the president, what will we do and when can we do it? Not a single positive story from those five sources on the first day with big jumps in good news in so many jurisdictions.

These critters are incorrigible.

[Canoerebel]

The CNN website.

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Two South Koreans recover from COVID-19 after plasma therapy
07 Apr 2020

SEOUL: Two elderly South Korean coronavirus patients recovered from severe pneumonia after being treated with plasma from survivors, researchers said Tuesday (Apr 7), offering hope in the face of the global pandemic.

Scientists have pointed to the potential benefits of plasma - a blood fluid - from recovered individuals who have developed antibodies to the virus enabling the body's defences to attack it.
.
.
.
Plasma therapy could become "an alternative treatment for patients in critical condition who do not respond to antiviral drugs", said Choi Jun-yong, a doctor and researcher at Severance Hospital in Seoul, where both patients were treated.

But large-scale clinical trials were needed to prove its effectiveness, he added.

One of the two patients was a 71-year-old man with no underlying conditions who only improved when treated with plasma from a recovered patient in his 20s, along with steroids.

He was initially given malaria drugs and a respirator for severe pneumonia.

The other patient, a 67-year-old female, also did not respond to initial treatments including malaria, HIV drugs, and oxygen therapy. She began to recover after receiving plasma therapy and steroids at the same time, researchers said.

Their findings were published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Korean Medicine.

Kwon Jun-wook, an official at Seoul's Central Disease Control Headquarters, said plasma therapy was "important" when there was "currently no vaccine or treatment available" for the virus.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... y-12618422

And on youtube (the news caster is easy on the eyes):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47IOaG2oUQQ

Hey RangerJoe, I touched on those cases. That's my wife's hospital, by the way. What, don't you read my posts? [;)] [Just kidding--this thread has a huge number of posts.]

The news is still good here. Here's the latest: Loose social distancing looms large as new virus cases stay low

Over the weekend, I took the family down to the riverside park by bus, since papa wanted a couple of thirst quenchers and parking is usually a hassle. The ROK Navy Seoul (FF-952) tied up on the river and a land-bound SS and KV were unfortunately closed. While there, I noticed a German-speaking fellow and his two kids were not sporting masks. The missus commented that it didn't look good for foreigners to not be wearing the things. Still, I have yet to see anyone, including them, be hassled for not wearing a mask.

On the way back, we went through a jam-packed market (which wasn't too wet, by the way, although there were a couple of fishmongers). With maybe 200 active cases in a city of 11 million, it's hard to get too excited about social distancing.

Driving this morning traffic seemed to be worse than pre-virus. However, I pay only $3.80 a gallon for gas, which is about 40% less than pre-virus (gas tax is very high), so that's a nice effect I'll take.

On the media, it's in their nature to play up doom and gloom to get eyeballs and clicks. It's what they do. If you want to live a long and stress-free life, not turning on the news wouldn't hurt.

Cheers,
CB

[mind_messing]

Very good article - Spiegelhalter knows his stuff

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-338 ... 5c6fac846c

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake




Easy for you to say. There is a code for "attack by Emperor Penguin, first encounter". Sometimes I code "Chagas disease" (South American parasitic disease) just for fun

Not really, see for yourself - https://www.who.int/data/gho

Making that data of this nature accessible is absolutely critical in encouraging the research and modelling that make a serious contribution to health outcomes.

If it's painful on your end, that's because input control is needed in all good systems - garbage in, garbage out [:)]

No, I disagree. What benefit is it to know if the injury from an Emperor Penguin was a first or subsequent encounter? Or (as noted in a prior thread here) an injury sustained in a killer whale encounter?

Use your imagination.

Here's a hypothetical - if Antarctic residents start displaying symptoms of a new unknown illness, and there's a massive increase in injuries from Emperor Penguins in both first and subsequent encounters, then that's a possible avenue to explore for determining the source of the new illness.

It's not even restricted to medicine, either. If you have good records on injuries from Emperor Penguins and control for the size penguin and human populations, then you can monitor how aggressive they are through seasons and years. Then you could compare that to weather information and see if climate change has an effect on their behaviour

That's just the top of the iceberg (pun intended) of what you could do with a silly little data stream like that.

Enormous effort goes into collecting data that either will not be used, or should not be used (but probably will be used if it costs taxpayer money to do so).

The thing with data is that if you never collect it, then it's never useful.

The trend over recent years towards open data has been very beneficial in making access to large quantities of data much easier.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

US mortality dropped significantly today to the lowest level since March 31. New York and New Jersey had big drops. Eight states reported no deaths today.

A quick scan of ABC, CNN, NBC, CBS and New York Times websites shows uniformly negative covid news stories. Seriously - every story is negative - how will we handle summer, what's the matter with the president, what will we do and when can we do it? Not a single positive story from those five sources on the first day with big jumps in good news in so many jurisdictions.

These critters are incorrigible.

Major media outlets not indulging in excessive optimism is prudent.

If you're expecting adherence to measures to limit the spread of Covid and the media are only running positive stories, then there's a problem.

FWIW, on the economic recovery points I'm inclined to agree with the headlines - there will be massive long term ramifications.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Two South Koreans recover from COVID-19 after plasma therapy
07 Apr 2020

SEOUL: Two elderly South Korean coronavirus patients recovered from severe pneumonia after being treated with plasma from survivors, researchers said Tuesday (Apr 7), offering hope in the face of the global pandemic.

Scientists have pointed to the potential benefits of plasma - a blood fluid - from recovered individuals who have developed antibodies to the virus enabling the body's defences to attack it.
.
.
.
Plasma therapy could become "an alternative treatment for patients in critical condition who do not respond to antiviral drugs", said Choi Jun-yong, a doctor and researcher at Severance Hospital in Seoul, where both patients were treated.

But large-scale clinical trials were needed to prove its effectiveness, he added.

One of the two patients was a 71-year-old man with no underlying conditions who only improved when treated with plasma from a recovered patient in his 20s, along with steroids.

He was initially given malaria drugs and a respirator for severe pneumonia.

The other patient, a 67-year-old female, also did not respond to initial treatments including malaria, HIV drugs, and oxygen therapy. She began to recover after receiving plasma therapy and steroids at the same time, researchers said.

Their findings were published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Korean Medicine.

Kwon Jun-wook, an official at Seoul's Central Disease Control Headquarters, said plasma therapy was "important" when there was "currently no vaccine or treatment available" for the virus.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... y-12618422

And on youtube (the news caster is easy on the eyes):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47IOaG2oUQQ

Hey RangerJoe, I touched on those cases. That's my wife's hospital, by the way. What, don't you read my posts? [;)] [Just kidding--this thread has a huge number of posts.]

The news is still good here. Here's the latest: Loose social distancing looms large as new virus cases stay low

Over the weekend, I took the family down to the riverside park by bus, since papa wanted a couple of thirst quenchers and parking is usually a hassle. The ROK Navy Seoul (FF-952) tied up on the river and a land-bound SS and KV were unfortunately closed. While there, I noticed a German-speaking fellow and his two kids were not sporting masks. The missus commented that it didn't look good for foreigners to not be wearing the things. Still, I have yet to see anyone, including them, be hassled for not wearing a mask.

On the way back, we went through a jam-packed market (which wasn't too wet, by the way, although there were a couple of fishmongers). With maybe 200 active cases in a city of 11 million, it's hard to get too excited about social distancing.

Driving this morning traffic seemed to be worse than pre-virus. However, I pay only $3.80 a gallon for gas, which is about 40% less than pre-virus (gas tax is very high), so that's a nice effect I'll take.

On the media, it's in their nature to play up doom and gloom to get eyeballs and clicks. It's what they do. If you want to live a long and stress-free life, not turning on the news wouldn't hurt.

Cheers,
CB

I know that you mentioned it but someone wanted to know about it. So I looked up a few links. I don't know if he read them yet.

Yes, the media focuses on gloom and doom since it seems to sell better. It also depends upon their perspective and how they want to portray things.

I am glad that things are going well in Korea, it is an example to the world on just how things could have been handled.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Very good article - Spiegelhalter knows his stuff

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-338 ... 5c6fac846c

A very good article. An except here.


According to the FT analysis, overall deaths rose 60 per cent in Belgium, 51 per cent in Spain, 42 per cent in the Netherlands and 34 per cent in France during the pandemic compared with the same period in previous years.

Some of these deaths may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments. But excess mortality has risen most steeply in places suffering the worst Covid-19 outbreaks, suggesting most of these deaths are directly related to the virus rather than simply side-effects of lockdowns.

[obvert]

Another avenue for finding new hotspots and more reliably measuring the number of people with Cornavirus. Sewage.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nati ... 019927001/

Last week, county officials sent a sample of raw sewage from the Wilmington Wastewater Treatment plant on 12th Street to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology startup. There, they compared the prevalence of genetic fragments from the virus in fecal matter against local population data and sewage flow rates – all in an effort to estimate how many people may have the virus.

The company's analysis estimated that 15,200 people – three percent of the population north of the Chesapeake & Delaware Canal – had the virus as of April 14. That number is approximately 15 times the laboratory confirmed cases in the county as of the sample date.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Another avenue for finding new hotspots and more reliably measuring the number of people with Cornavirus. Sewage.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nati ... 019927001/

Last week, county officials sent a sample of raw sewage from the Wilmington Wastewater Treatment plant on 12th Street to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology startup. There, they compared the prevalence of genetic fragments from the virus in fecal matter against local population data and sewage flow rates – all in an effort to estimate how many people may have the virus.

The company's analysis estimated that 15,200 people – three percent of the population north of the Chesapeake & Delaware Canal – had the virus as of April 14. That number is approximately 15 times the laboratory confirmed cases in the county as of the sample date.

That kind of analysis is so rife with speculation and assumptions on what values to assign variables that it likely isn't any more accurate than measuring cosmological distances using the red shifting of light.

Was a speculated margin of error stated?

A creative exercise in how to find ways to spend tax dollar science funding.

[Canoerebel]

With respect to the news, that makes sense. You can't trust people to handle/process truth. You have to mislead them to keep them in line and achieve goals for the common good.

[:)]

[Canoerebel]

Obvert posted two days ago (from NY Times, IIRC) that Walker County, Georgia, cases were doubling every 2.5 days. At that time, Walker had 59 cases. Two days later it has 59 cases. (It's still far too early to determine if relaxing countermeasures will result in a significant increase or not.)

At the moment, new cases and new mortality have really dropped in Georgia, along with much of the US. Yesterday's sharp drops were probably perturbations in reporting, as it seems highly unlikely that kind of statistical anomaly can be sustained. Here's hoping the trend continues.

[Canoerebel]

Yesterday, while mulling over the raw data with all its good news, I then drove a half-hour to hike in Walker County. On the way, a local radio station was replaying a broadcast from one of last year's Atlanta Braves baseball games. It occurred to me that pretty soon we'll be hearing some kind of plan from baseball to resume spring training. With the situation in the NE, they'll have to be careful not to appear to have a tin-ear. They'll probably first let pitchers and catchers report, to work out. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that sometime this week.

And University of Washington likely will revise its projections soon. Since the last revision about four or five days back, the news has mostly been good in most (but not all) jurisdictions.

[Canoerebel]

Belgium and Netherlands continue to report sharp drops in new cases and mortalities.

This seems to be happening all over Europe and most of the US now. That may be because many of these jurisdictions began imposing countermeasures about six weeks ago. It might be due to climate, as weather warms across the northern hemisphere. Or both. Certainly a major developing trend.