OT: Corona virus

[Cap Mandrake]

I think the virus is ramping up here. Every day I see a family get nuked.

Phillipino family. Early 30 something parents. 4 kids, youngest 7 months, 3 yrs up to 11. Dad get sick with COVID symptoms. He gets screened promptly and ordered to stay in his room. His test is negative...they let him out of his room. He gets a 106 fever [X(]. They admit him and test again..positive. Mom calls for telehealth visit. Baby is fine but she is worried. The thing is SHE is starting to get sick with diarrhea, which is an unusual presenting symptom. I order the PCR test on her (which may be negative because she doesn't have respiratory symptoms yet) and give her instructions on "safe" care of the baby and food preparation. What can you do? The f****** thing is straight from Hell (via Wuhan Virology Laboratory). We develop a plan if she goes down. The niece and nephew (17 and 18..good kids I know them both) will come over from the grandparents house (who have chronic diseases)and stay to help. It's like sending reinforcements into the breach. Their are a bunch of younger nieces and nephews and Grandma's house. Happiest kids I have ever seen. It's like Little Luzon over the.

The damn thing seems to have a PLAN...take out the breadwinner and get into the nest. Worst thing I have ever seen in my career.

[Cap Mandrake]

The Governator ordered beach closures in Orange County, overruling local authorities and his own State Parks Dept.

Now there are protests..mostly surfer dudes...but in Newport they are deliberately parking their Porsche Panameras and Carreras on the sand and posting the pick. [:)] It's the Porsche revolt of 2020.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


Not all judges do this, but if some do - isn't that institutional?

Not even close. It's personal, not institutional. Is it written into the policies and procedures of the institution? If not, then it isn't institutional.

You and I are working from different definitions of "institutional". If the regulations are allow the judge to make different decisions in identical legal situations, that is a problem built into the institution. If the institution does not review and consider amending the judge's sentence, that is another institutional failure.
From the point of view of the person being treated unfairly, the judge represents the institution and his actions colour the view of the institution.

I am not suggesting the institution has these problems in the majority of cases. But if that happens in, say, 10% of the cases, but 30% of cases involving people of colour, they have a legit beef. That is why I can't agree with your statement that your institutions always treat people fairly and are only criticized (unfairly) by left wing zealots. As always, there will be a few zealots whose unreasonable accusations spoil the reasonable cases being made by most plaintiffs.

[Cap Mandrake]

The CIA needs to kidnap Xi, bury him up to his neck in the Arizona desert Comanche style and rub COVID-19 secretions all over his Winnie the Pooh face.*






* DISCLAIMER: This may violate and existing Executive Order from the 1960's or something.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

We now have full face shields, N-95 masks and gowns but not enough that you can throw everything away after one use. I had to make a hair covering out of a shoe covering. [:)]

Plenty of procedure masks and gloves and gel. Telehealth is surprisingly effective despite some technical snags. Still an absolutely striking fall off in asthma exacerbations. Markedly reduced minor trauma too (lacerations, concussions, extremity fractures). Going back to the main office on Monday from Fort Apache

Could the asthma problem decrease be related to a drop in pollution during the stay-at-home period?

[RangerJoe]

Indoor air is usually worse than outdoor air.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I think the virus is ramping up here. Every day I see a family get nuked.

Phillipino family. Early 30 something parents. 4 kids, youngest 7 months, 3 yrs up to 11. Dad get sick with COVID symptoms. He gets screened promptly and ordered to stay in his room. His test is negative...they let him out of his room. He gets a 106 fever [X(]. They admit him and test again..positive. Mom calls for telehealth visit. Baby is fine but she is worried. The thing is SHE is starting to get sick with diarrhea, which is an unusual presenting symptom. I order the PCR test on her (which may be negative because she doesn't have respiratory symptoms yet) and give her instructions on "safe" care of the baby and food preparation. What can you do? The f****** thing is straight from Hell (via Wuhan Virology Laboratory). We develop a plan if she goes down. The niece and nephew (17 and 18..good kids I know them both) will come over from the grandparents house (who have chronic diseases)and stay to help. It's like sending reinforcements into the breach. Their are a bunch of younger nieces and nephews and Grandma's house. Happiest kids I have ever seen. It's like Little Luzon over the.

The damn thing seems to have a PLAN...take out the breadwinner and get into the nest. Worst thing I have ever seen in my career.

Sorry to hear that [:(]. The 'knock on' effects are scary if you dwell on them. If mum and dad are both sick and the older teenagers are looking after them and the kids - who looks after Grandpa and Grandma? You start getting movements between households just because of necessity and before you know it the grandparents are sick with a far higher risk of passing away.

I hope they, and the rest of your patients, pull through.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

A while back I posted some graphs plotting reported cases against population density. In retrospect I'm not convinced they showed all that much interesting. Basically they showed that the denser the population the higher the reported cases /M. So far so dull.

But today the ONS have released mortality statistics by local govt area (previously it was only possible to get the case data unless you did a whole load of digging).

From a UK perspective at least when you start looking at deaths I think there is plenty of interesting stuff. I'd be interested to hear whether if some or any of it is of interest from a US perspective. I'm conscious that the last time I posted plots it clogged up the thread a little. So for the time being I'll leave them as attachments to be opened if people are interested. If people ask I can embed them as images. In the body of the text I'll just put a brief description of the plot and what I see from an 'eyeball' look.

If US posters were interested I'd estimate it would take a couple of hours (if that) to produce similar plots showing; all US states; one with NJ and NYC taken out; the 20 least dense states on their own.

Important disclaimer at the outset - references to BAME ethnic groups are not referring to 'Britishness'. The vast majority of BAME individuals hold UK passports and most were born in the UK. Many are now 3rd or even 4th generation. By the same measure 'White British' does not infer any additional 'legitimacy' - it is simply a reference to ethnic background.

Plot 1. This is basically the same local government areas as I looked at previously in terms of cases. Previously there was a pretty linear relationship even including the 3 London boroughs I looked at. Doing the same for deaths you get a different picture. Everywhere aside from the 3 London boroughs are clustered in the bottom left of the graph. The three London boroughs are miles away from that cluster and indeed from each other. From top to bottom of those data points you have Newham, Lambeth and Islington.

Plot 2. This is the same LA areas less the London areas. Here you get back a more linear relationship between density and deaths/M. The two big outliers are Portsmouth and Epping Forest. The latter is fairly straightforward - it is on London's doorstep. Portsmouth is more interesting. From one perspective it is somewhere that is very much 'white working class' in comparison to the more diverse bigger cities (Portsmouth is c85% White British compared to most Inner London boroughs which are around 40-50%). So that might point to worse outcomes for BAME people independent of SES. On the other hand there is the simple fact that it is a densely populated port city and so 180 degrees of its 'horizon' is sea and CV19 free. Plus, at the risk of offending anyone from Portsmouth, you pretty much only end up there if you already live there or if you are driving freight to the continent.

Plot 3. These are the 20 most densely populated London boroughs. There seems to be a shallow linear relationship between density and deaths/M. I don't have the software to say whether that relationship is statistically significant or not. Eyeballing it I see 5 outliers. Above the trend are Brent and Newham. Brent is very ethnically diverse even by London standards (22% White British/Irish) but that diversity is spread around different ethnic groups. It isn't particularly deprived as a borough by London standards. Newham is (I think) one of the most deprived boroughs in London and has high proportions of the ethnic groups that the ONS statistics suggested might be seeing the highest death tolls - 23% of the population is of Bangladeshi or Pakistani descent. With that said I think it is a little more difficult to get a handle on the Caribbean/African populations - on a borough level at least those populations tend to be clustered south of the river in boroughs like Lambeth/Southwark alongside very affluent 'commuter' populations. To get an idea of what is going on I think you would have to 'zoom in' more than the data allows. Below the trend you have Islington, Kensington & Chelsea and Camden. K&C is simple I think - it is one of the richest areas in the UK. Camden and Islington are difficult to put a finger on as a South Londoner. My impression is they are both boroughs that have been heavily gentrified. I couldn't afford to rent in either. But they are not 'off the scale posh' like K&C. Ethnically there isn't a massive difference between them and Lambeth/Southwark (47%/52%/42%/54% respectively in terms of White British/Irish). The difference may come in the remaining 'diversity' being much more weighted to the apparently more vulnerable African/Caribbean populations in the South London boroughs - all four boroughs have roughly equivalent populations of Bangladeshi/Pakistani heritage. Out of interest the respective Chinese populations are 2.9%/2.2%/1.5%/???.

Plot 4. This is the 20 least densely populated LA areas in England. Going down to the least dense area in England - Eden - which at 25 people/sqkm is equivalent to US states like Minnesota/Vermont/Mississipi/Arizona/Arkansas (albeit at a massively smaller scale). I would characterise this as a 'splatter plot' rather than a scatter plot. Of the three apparent outliers two are in Cumbria (i.e. the Lake District) - they may have suffered somewhat from being tourist destinations both for British and international tourists. If you were stretching there may be some outliers in the other direction from the far South West of the country - i.e. not only very rural but a long way from both London and be big urban areas in the North/Midlands. Otherwise all I think you could say is that there does not seem to be a population density in England low enough to stop the virus on its own.


*** as far as I can tell I can only upload one attachment per post - I'll post the next three plots as attachments in separate posts - if there is a way to put them all in one post let me know and I'll sort it and see if Matrix will delete the 'stray' posts. ***

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Plot 2

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Plot 3

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Plot 4

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

OK, the US has one ally against China...anyone else want to enter the fray?


The Australians make noises about an international investigation....and...

"Australia is always there, making trouble. It is a bit like chewing gum stuck on the sole of China's shoes. Sometimes you have to find a stone to rub it off."

— Hu Xijin, Global Times editor

[:D]

That should improve China's relations with Australia.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The CIA needs to kidnap Xi, bury him up to his neck in the Arizona desert Comanche style and rub COVID-19 secretions all over his Winnie the Pooh face.*






* DISCLAIMER: This may violate and existing Executive Order from the 1960's or something.

Wrong desert. Here be Apache.

[obvert]

Relating to the data Sammy5IsAlive posted here is an article from the Guardian about Newham, just South of where I live. It is the borough that hosted the Olympics in 2012, which were at Stratford, mostly.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... ected-area

While the coronavirus has spread widely across the UK, the pandemic has taken a huge toll on the area where Islam lives, the east London borough of Newham, which has recorded the worst mortality rate in England and Wales.

The borough’s rate – 144.3 deaths per 100,000 people – is closely followed by Brent in north London (141.5), and Newham’s neighbour Hackney (127.4), according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics. The data confirms what Islam has suspected all along: people living in the poorest parts of the country are dying from Covid-19 at a much higher rate than those in the richest.

Dr Zubaida Haque, deputy director of the Runnymede Trust, said areas like Newham show the discussion about PPE and testing needs to go much further than just the NHS. Key workers, from taxi drivers and care workers to grocery shop owners, who are disproportionately from a BAME background, also require protective equipment. “BAME key workers aren’t just NHS staff. We need to start asking whether they are getting proper PPE equipment. Are they being protected? Are they being tested? Is that infrastructure there?”

Peter Raison, a 58-year-old train driver for Transport for London who lives across the road from Islam, is also not surprised by the high level of mortality. Many like him on their street have to go to work and even he isn’t being provided with PPE. He is upset that there are people still failing to socially distance as the death tolls increase. “People are just assuming it’s not going to happen to me.”

[jdsrae]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

OK, the US has one ally against China...anyone else want to enter the fray?


The Australians make noises about an international investigation....and...

"Australia is always there, making trouble. It is a bit like chewing gum stuck on the sole of China's shoes. Sometimes you have to find a stone to rub it off."

— Hu Xijin, Global Times editor

[:D]

Here’s a good summary on the lead up to the above comment being made.
This article is from our national broadcaster.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-30/c ... h/12198674

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: jdsrae

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

OK, the US has one ally against China...anyone else want to enter the fray?


The Australians make noises about an international investigation....and...

"Australia is always there, making trouble. It is a bit like chewing gum stuck on the sole of China's shoes. Sometimes you have to find a stone to rub it off."

— Hu Xijin, Global Times editor

[:D]

Here’s a good summary on the lead up to the above comment being made.
This article is from our national broadcaster.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-30/c ... h/12198674

A good overview. As noted previously, this is not all positive for China right now. Judging by some of the comments about eliciting praise for their handling of the virus in China, they are feeling the pinch both in terms of image and the economy, down 9.8%.


A Chinese emissary to this country has never put the relationship in such shockingly raw calculation.

Were it not for the firm knowledge that the Chinese economy, which shrank 9.8 per cent in the March quarter, will need new vigour in the months ahead, powered by Australian coal, iron ore and gas, the concern would have been greater.

The Chinese Embassy in France has been very active in promoting China's success in quelling the coronavirus while being critical of the response in France and Europe.

In Germany, Chinese diplomats have been seeking to elicit praise for Beijing's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

[obvert]

Another look at testing sorted for percentage positive with the WHO recommended 10% line marked.

This seems like the most important indicator right now of which countries and regions are struggling, and which have a good chance to reopen and keep the Ro below 1.

The UK went down almost another 2% points to 17.3, so still a ways to go before getting under 10%. Testing is reportedly ramping up to the 100k a day mark the govt had attempted for May 1, but of course there is more controversy over how tests are being counted. The percentage positive indicator seems the best to look at rather than total tests administered.

Brazil and Ecuador still look rough, and some African countries are ridiculously high with only a very few tests administered.

Iran, an early hotspot still seems in the thick of it, but who really knows with the numbers released from there.

The IHME model as designed was based on an assumption of the curve being similar on the front and back sides in an individual country, but that doesn't seem to be happening anywhere. Many European countries are still logging high numbers of cases and high percentages even though deaths are going down. Italy looks to be better, at 10.1% positive now.

On a side note, Eastern European countries across the board seem to be doing remarkably well through this so far.

[obvert]

A study in Harvard Global Health shows a comparison between SARS-1 and SARS-2

https://globalepidemics.org/2020/03/23/ ... -surfaces/

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy



That is why I can't agree with your statement that your institutions always treat people fairly and are only criticized (unfairly) by left wing zealots.

As always, there will be a few zealots whose unreasonable accusations spoil the reasonable cases being made by most plaintiffs.

Where in the effing hell did I make any such statement? Quote it please?

Where the EFF do you get off putting words like that in my mouth?

Maybe we should start calling you Cathy Newman....so what you're saying is.....

I'm very sorry for you that you don't seem to grasp that you just placed yourself in that zealot category you referred to.

Your paraphrasing post attempting to put words in my mouth is REPREHENSIBLE.
This is exactly the kind of treatment conservatives have come to expect from leftists.

You have earned a Green Button and a complaint to a moderator for your slander.

[MakeeLearn]

Pentagon confirms 3 videos showing "unidentified aerial phenomena"
4 days ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/penta ... 13h51b_1|2



"Washington — The Pentagon on Monday formally released three unclassified videos taken by Navy pilots that have circulated for years showing interactions with "unidentified aerial phenomena."

One of the videos shows an incident from 2004, and the other two were recorded in January 2015, according to Sue Gough, a Defense Department spokeswoman. The videos became public after unauthorized leaks in 2007 and 2017, and the Navy previously verified their authenticity."



""Dude, this is a f***ing drone, bro," a pilot exclaims on the video. Another person says "there's a whole fleet of them.""