OT: Corona virus

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I don't think the Chinese allowed any standard flights from Wuhan when they closed the place down. The airport the trains, the buses, private autos. Everything was shut down. What they did was campaign to NOT shut down international fights from elsewhere in China even though they knew perhaps tens or hundreds of thousands had already fled Wuhan and they knew it was highly transmissible and AND they already had information that patients were becoming sick from 2 to 11 1/2 days after exposure (mean of 5.5 days).

There were 2 US chartered flights out of Wuhan but those people were properly quarantined..(maybe...the first case in California was near the AFB they were quarantined at) I think there may have been a French charter too.

Wuhan had departing international flights for about 3 weeks after there was essentially incontrovertible evidence of human to human transmission. That was really the only chance the world had of stopping the virus.

The Chinese may have decided that "if we are to suffer, then everyone else will too." Especially economically. "Level the playing field."

[MakeeLearn]

If the middle of a pandemic the US Navy sure likes to air it's dirty laundry.
Between the Health of Our Ships and UFOS what is next!

[MakeeLearn]

How coronavirus outbreaks on four other ships informed response on USS Kidd
May 2, 2020


https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/ne ... n-uss-kidd


"SAN DIEGO —

Novel coronavirus outbreaks on board three Navy warships have taught the service valuable lessons and enabled them to respond quickly in late March when a sailor started displaying symptoms of COVID-19 on board the guided-missile destroyer Kidd, a Navy vice admiral in charge of the Navy’s surface force said Friday.

The USS Kidd was conducting counter-drug operations in the eastern Pacific near South America when a sailor began exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, on April 22. Less than a week later, the ship was moored at Naval Base San Diego, with 243 of its roughly 330 sailors evacuated from the vessel."

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy



That is why I can't agree with your statement that your institutions always treat people fairly and are only criticized (unfairly) by left wing zealots.

As always, there will be a few zealots whose unreasonable accusations spoil the reasonable cases being made by most plaintiffs.

Where in the effing hell did I make any such statement? Quote it please?

Where the EFF do you get off putting words like that in my mouth?

Maybe we should start calling you Cathy Newman....so what you're saying is.....

I'm very sorry for you that you don't seem to grasp that you just placed yourself in that zealot category you referred to.

Your paraphrasing post attempting to put words in my mouth is REPREHENSIBLE.
This is exactly the kind of treatment conservatives have come to expect from leftists.

You have earned a Green Button and a complaint to a moderator for your slander.

Here is the exchange that I was responding to. Perhaps I used different wording, but the things I understood were that you felt the institutions were fair because racial bias had been eliminated and that there were leftist elements who were pushing the narrative of unfairness:

ORIGINAL: obvert
. If you don't recognise the discriminatory history of the US in regard to black and brown Americans, the civil rights movement and the existing legacy of those institutions then it'll be hard to discuss this on the same plane.

Keyword: HISTORY as in ancient history.

Institutionalized Racism simply does not exist anymore.

Every Institution in the US has been providing special treatment to people of color and discriminating against non-people of color for somewhere around thirty years now in a misguided attempt to redress PAST discrimination.

There is no institution in the US today that could even dream of getting away with racist treatment of people of color.

That Institutionalized Racism exists in America today is a leftist fabrication.

Sooner or later you are going to have to step outside of that bubble you are living in.


_____________________________


Hans

Again I ask, where is the quote?

Where is the apology, or do you think it is OK to paraphrase and put word in people's mouth's they never uttered?

I can accept an interpretation that I may have implied something, I can accept your having inferred something, and stating clearly it is an inference, but I CANNOT accept a deliberate misquote substituting your interpretation for my words.

In case you didn't get my Cathy Newman reference, try Googling it. She has garnered world wide fame for what you are doing.

[MakeeLearn]

Scotland Launched an Invasion During the Black Death. Does Histroy Tell China to Attack Taiwan?May 2, 2020

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... wan-150321


"Put simply, coronavirus may put Taiwan in China’s crosshairs as much as the bubonic plague put England in Scotland’s sights."

"When the Black Death ravaged Europe in the mid-fourteenth century, the soldiers of Scotland saw opportunity in crisis. First hitting England in 1348, the plague’s deadly spread across the country spurred the Scots to perceive an ideal moment to conquer their neighbors by staging an invasion of northern England in 1349. Might a power in today’s coronavirus-stricken world take advantage of temporary alterations to the global strategic environment for its geopolitical gain? "

" An alarming twenty-six U.S. Navy ships have reported coronavirus cases, most prominently the USS Theodore Roosevelt."

[Canoerebel]

CNBC is running a headline about the USA having just experienced it's "Deadliest Day." The article then opens by describing how various states are easing countermeasures in the face of this news. The implications are that states are proceeding recklessly. But to get this story, CNBC fiddled with the data.

CNBC cherry-picked a 24-hour period spanning two days to get this highest total. Contrary to it's assertion, neither Thursday nor Friday were the deadliest days. The deadliest day was April 21, more than a week earlier, with 2,683 mortalities. Since then, deaths have been gradually, then a bit more, dropping.

CNB cherry-picked a 24-hour-period over two days to find the highest possible concentration of numbers. The problem with that approach is that the balance of those two days would then be hours with far less reported mortalities, so that if CNB ran the numbers for the 24 hours before or after the 24 cherrypicked, the mortality numbers would be drastically lower. But that story won't be run.

Another example of major media outlet running numbers without context - telling the truth without telling the whole truth, in effect telling a lie. Sensationalism, half-truths and untruths aren't badges of integrity.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I don't think the Chinese allowed any standard flights from Wuhan when they closed the place down. The airport the trains, the buses, private autos. Everything was shut down. What they did was campaign to NOT shut down international fights from elsewhere in China even though they knew perhaps tens or hundreds of thousands had already fled Wuhan and they knew it was highly transmissible and AND they already had information that patients were becoming sick from 2 to 11 1/2 days after exposure (mean of 5.5 days).

There were 2 US chartered flights out of Wuhan but those people were properly quarantined..(maybe...the first case in California was near the AFB they were quarantined at) I think there may have been a French charter too.

Wuhan had departing international flights for about 3 weeks after there was essentially incontrovertible evidence of human to human transmission. That was really the only chance the world had of stopping the virus.

More Information on Chinese Flights:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/bl ... gn-travel/

[Canoerebel]

Newsweek gives a daily mortality number that is one-half the CNBC number from just a day or two earlier but doesn't offer the context, "Hey, this number is half what we were seeing just a few days ago!"

[Lowpe]

More on China.

United Front groups in Canada helped Beijing stockpile coronavirus safety supplies

https://globalnews.ca/news/6858818/coro ... um=Twitter

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Newsweek gives a daily mortality number that is one-half the CNBC number from just a day or two earlier but doesn't offer the context, "Hey, this number is half what we were seeing just a few days ago!"

Truth be told, I question most of the numbers widely circulated. Who is Worldometers anyhow? How do they get their data? The CDC warns about state vs state reporting as the process each state uses is so varied and reported on different timelines.

CR I think you have done a good job of documenting some of it.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, the numbers are surely all kinds of wonky. But we've been using Worldometers from the start and there doesn't seem to be a better source.

The Univ. of Washington projections incorporate mortality numbers past, and projections for the future. It seems to be a widely-used and respected source and tends to track with Worldometers. But there will be uncertainties whether those numbers include multitudes of people who actually died of some other malady while also testing positive for the virus, or whether lots of Covid cases were missed in the hubbub of dealing with this.

[Lowpe]

New York's Flu tracker:

https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/n ... lu-tracker

We just finished week 17.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


The Chinese may have decided that "if we are to suffer, then everyone else will too." Especially economically. "Level the playing field."

Yes, that is my suspicion as well. It either HAS to be that or face-saving on a global scale or an absolutely epic level of negligence or incompetence. Once the CCP got involved, the quarantine of Wuhan was handed with a ruthlessness that could only work in an authoritarian state. They would have to have had very good information to take such a seemingly self-destructive act that could not be hidden from the world.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

New York's Flu tracker:

https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/n ... lu-tracker

We just finished week 17.

So influenza was pretty much gone by March 2nd. That is how it seemed out here too.

[RangerJoe]

I wonder how many of those "flu" cases were actually CoViD-19

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

CNBC is running a headline about the USA having just experienced it's "Deadliest Day." The article then opens by describing how various states are easing countermeasures in the face of this news. The implications are that states are proceeding recklessly. But to get this story, CNBC fiddled with the data.

CNBC cherry-picked a 24-hour period spanning two days to get this highest total. Contrary to it's assertion, neither Thursday nor Friday were the deadliest days. The deadliest day was April 21, more than a week earlier, with 2,683 mortalities. Since then, deaths have been gradually, then a bit more, dropping.

CNB cherry-picked a 24-hour-period over two days to find the highest possible concentration of numbers. The problem with that approach is that the balance of those two days would then be hours with far less reported mortalities, so that if CNB ran the numbers for the 24 hours before or after the 24 cherrypicked, the mortality numbers would be drastically lower. But that story won't be run.

Another example of major media outlet running numbers without context - telling the truth without telling the whole truth, in effect telling a lie. Sensationalism, half-truths and untruths aren't badges of integrity.

Yup. Playing with words to deceive 'without lying' is a child's definition of lying. When one undertakes to deceive, one is lying.

Directly stating false facts is one method of lying. Playing with words and context is merely more sophisticated, but is still lying.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

More on China.

United Front groups in Canada helped Beijing stockpile coronavirus safety supplies

https://globalnews.ca/news/6858818/coro ... um=Twitter

While I am not a lawyer, in my opinion, every group and person involved in this may now be targets of lawsuits. If the CCP also worked with criminal organizations, may it not also be labeled as such?

[Lowpe]

The false parallels of the 1918 Spanish flu

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/20 ... h_flu.html

[Canoerebel]

While doing a google search for "reports of mortality declining," I stumbled across a March 30 news report/analysis of the newly-created IHME (Univ. of Washington) model. See report here: http://nautil.us/blog/be-wary-of-a-mode ... _19-deaths .

Reading this showed how well or poorly IHME did in its earliest projections. I like the model but it turns out it didn't do very well early on. It missed too high for some states and regions and too low for others. Often, considerably so.

The media (and a few forumites) picked up on those early projections, made their own analysis, and came up with conclusions that turned out to be flawed. In late March, IHME seriously overestimated mortality in southern states like Florida and Arkansas, and in the biggest state, California. Conversely, it drastically underestimated mortality in New York and other northern regions, including New Jersey and Michigan. See image below.

The news media picked up on the negative projections for the South and predicted the region would suffer disproportionately. Naturally, some forumites picked up on that. As weeks passed and data came in indicating this wasn't true, the forumites asked for "more time" to receive data. When a week passed, and then another, and then two more, the data continued to show that it wasn't the South suffering disproportionately. It was the North. The media (and concerned forumites) haven't addressed this. The faulty projections and negative portrayals simply faded into the past, unacknowledged and without any effort to self-critique, clarify or contextualize.

IHME continually revises its projections to take into account actual numbers and so forth, thus usually generating updates that get closer and closer to actual data. Despite it's early miscalls it has been a useful tool.

Data keeps coming in, so nothing is final yet. But it does appear that NE USA has absorbed the hardest blows in round one. As I've noted previously, this probably isn't because the southern states did things better - there's probably an element of luck involved and other criteria might've been determinative, like air pollution, population density, etc. Certainly the northeast has excellent medical care.

As for the google search to find media articles looking into the decline in mortality in the US? Nothing popped up in the first search. I'll try again later.

[Canoerebel]

Very early on in here, there were predictions that Florida would be particularly hard hit due to its elderly population. Didn't happen (more accurately: hasn't happened and isn't now projected to happen).

From a historical standpoint it would be interesting to know what info went into the early models and why they were too high for places like Florida and too low for New York.