OT: Corona virus

[Lowpe]

Rural Pennsylvania at its best:


Pennsylvania Dairy Farmer Decides to Bottle His Own Milk Rather than Dump It. Sells Out in Hours.


https://web.archive.org/web/20200504225 ... -in-hours/

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Another potentially more positive way of looking at the IHME projections. In their commentary they talk about trying to 'smooth' the data in order to try and mitigate against fluctuations. As far as I can tell the longer the time period you have to do that 'smoothing' process the more stable the numbers.

Using that smoothing process they have got a pretty stable curve up to roughly the last week in April. At that point things start getting more erratic - a dip in deaths followed by a sharp increase up to their last 'true' data point on 01/05. Their projection then proceeds on from that high point. But we now know that the reported deaths in the next 3 days (i.e. over the weekend) have - as has been the general pattern over the last month or so - been significantly lower. So their projected total deaths for 04/05 was 72k. The actual number would appear to be 70k. Already there is a 2k difference

It is likely that the next 3 days will see a significant increase in reported deaths as has been seen previously. But my guess would be that once the most recent numbers get 'smoothed' the projected death toll will start reducing from where it is now.

[Alfred]

This is a prepublication paper which will be of most interest to Cap Mandrake and Chickenboy:
 
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1.full.pdf
 
For the layman probably the chief point of interest from the paper is the view that the initial Wuhan spike protein D614G has mutated largely to G614 which is found in Europe and North America.  The significance of which is that the mutation seems to be more "contagious" but less "severe".  One conclusion which results is that the increased number of European and North American infections is not due to policy responses but simply is the logical outcome of the mutation.
 
Alfred

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: obvert


Without good journalism, a free press, we veer toward authoritarianism. It's very surprising to hear so much critique of it here. I hope most just mean they only like the sources they trust.

We are already veering toward authoritarianism because our free press is not practicing good journalism.

No one here has criticized the free press, that is your inference.

We have criticized a biased press.

And the implication further up that unlike the rest of us you are not relying on television news, which somehow places you in a superior position in your mind is both presumptive and arrogant.

I almost never watch television and absolutely never watch television news.

Amazing how you twist things to fit your perspective.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: obvert


Without good journalism, a free press, we veer toward authoritarianism. It's very surprising to hear so much critique of it here. I hope most just mean they only like the sources they trust.

We are already veering toward authoritarianism because our free press is not practicing good journalism.

No one here has criticized the free press, that is your inference.

We have criticized a biased press.

And the implication further up that unlike the rest of us you are not relying on television news, which somehow places you in a superior position in your mind is both presumptive and arrogant.

I almost never watch television and absolutely never watch television news.

Amazing how you twist things to fit your perspective.

Ahh, Hans. I think you have it backwards. I work from what people actually say, not what I think they say or what I think they feel or mean.

Luckily you're very clear in your lack of bias yourself![:D]

[RangerJoe]

Thank you for that Alfred. I will look at it later but it reminds me of something that I read. Either the disease stays virulent, kill its hosts, and dies out, or the disease mutates to become less deadly and then becomes either more like a parasite or else develops a symbiotic relationship.

In fact, I read about a canine cancer that mutated into a canine STD which is easily curable. The disease is over 4000 thousand years old and maybe even 11,000 years old:

The curious tale of the cancer 'parasite' that sailed the seas
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 142605.htm

and the wiki article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canine_tr ... real_tumor

Joe

[RangerJoe]

Then I saw this:

Antibodies from llamas could help in fight against COVID-19, study suggests

Researchers linked two copies of a special kind of antibody produced by llamas to create a new antibody that binds tightly to a key protein on the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. This protein, called the spike protein, allows the virus to break into host cells. Initial tests indicate that the antibody blocks viruses that display this spike protein from infecting cells in culture.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 184301.htm

A llama, now 4 years old, was injected with stuff from the first SARs as well as the MERs virus. The two antibodies formed, when hooked together, apparently made this new antibody. Read all about it the article is short.

[Canoerebel]

As noted last evening, massive changes to the projections (and thanks to Sammy for digging in to find a number of reasons). The media has picked up on the changes and weaponized them.

In additional to the cited reasons for changes, there must be others. The projections no longer reflect sharp fluctuations that characterized inconsistent reporting. Suddenly the tallies are smoothly rounded. Perhaps IHME switched to a 7-day rolling average or is utilizing mortality data from a different source.

As noted last night, the projections already badly off. In Georgia, for instance, the revised projections called for 150 deaths from Saturday through Monday. The actual tally was about 80. For the US yesterday, the projection was for 2200 but the actual was 1300.

On the ground, in my section of Georgia, there is no sense that things have changed in the slightest. New case numbers have been rising slowly, which is surprising since testing has been rising. Mortality has been almost level for two weeks now.

Things seem to be improving here, even though countermeasures were eased more than 10 days ago, with further steps down more than a week ago. I'll be surprised if the revised IHME projections hold for this state and for the US. Usually, IHME revises every three to five days. Let's see.

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus: France's first known case 'was in December'
29 minutes ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554



"A patient treated in a hospital near Paris on 27 December for suspected pneumonia actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said.

This means the virus may have arrived in Europe almost a month earlier than previously thought.

Dr Yves Cohen said a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19.

The patient, who has since recovered, said he had no idea where he caught the virus as he had not travelled abroad.

Knowing who was the first case is key to understanding how the virus spread."

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

It can't simply be your pressure is at the "target goal"...you still have a pre-existing conditions. Now, if you have to be weighed on a veterinary scale when you go in to see the doctor....well....never mind.

Once we had to take a woman to the Farmers Co-Op to be weighed. She was able to move fully on her own despite her size.

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus France: Cameras to monitor masks and social distancing
4 May 2020

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52529981


"Video surveillance cameras in France will monitor how many people are wearing masks and their compliance with social distancing when the coronavirus lockdown is eased next week."

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Pre-existing conditions:

BMI>26...anyone? Anyone?

High blood pressure...anyone?

Neither of these I find comforting. [:)]

Lean, mean, F'ing Machine. Got to keep my girlish figure!

I suffer from low blood pressure, from my Mother's side.

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus is a Thug....

Punjab gangster tests positive for coronavirus; 30 cops quarantined
May 05, 2020



https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punja ... ined-80729



"A notorious Punjab gangster tested positive for coronavirus in Gurdaspur's Batala, where he was brought on a production warrant in a murder case from a Patiala jail.

Gurdaspur Civil Surgeon Krishan Chand said gangster Jaggu Bhagwanpuria's test report came on Tuesday afternoon, confirmed him to be a coronavirus case."

"Bhagwanpuria, whose real name is Jagdeep Singh, was brought to Batala from the Patiala jail on April 30.

He has several criminal cases, including murder and robbery, registered against him. "

"Bhagwanpuria's mother Harjit Kaur, who is a sarpanch of Bhagwanpur village in Batala, held a protest outside the Civil Lines police station, demanding that her son be given better treatment."

[MakeeLearn]

India To Launch World's Largest Evacuation On Thursday: 10-Point Guide
Flights from India will go to US, the Philippines, Singapore, Bangladesh, UAE, UK, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Singapore, Phillippines, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronav ... an-2223510

"New Delhi: Hundreds of thousands of Indians stranded abroad because of the coronavirus crisis will be brought back by air and by sea from Thursday in the world's largest evacuation mission. More than 1,90,000 Indians have requested a flight home."

--------------------

Self-Censored

[witpqs]

Victor Davis Hanson's piece on so-called journalism from two days ago.

Do the Media Even Exist?

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Pre-existing conditions:

BMI>26...anyone? Anyone?

High blood pressure...anyone?

Neither of these I find comforting. [:)]

Add to this

- vitamin D deficit (yeah, unfortuneately we are not all the same. Probably a cofactor regarding much hitten minorities)

- OH-ABUSUS! All guys infected in carnival meetings get hitten much harder in comparison with 'normal' community spreading - carnival is just an excuse to get completely drunken in the public (and yes, no matter what they say, at some point past midnight they drunk all brotherhood from the same big glass... long tradition. Another indicaton might be the significant higher diarhoe in this cases.

" for example, it is clear that heavy drinkers are more likely to have pneumonia (Jellinek 1943; Samokhvalov et al. 2010), tuberculosis (TB) (Borgdorff et al. 1998; Buskin et al. 1994; Kline et al. 1995; Narasimhan et al. 2013), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection (Jerrells et al. 2007), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (Moore et al. 2003; Moss et al. 1996)."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... o=0.549451


So, anyone feeding himself with junk and malnutrition?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert


Without good journalism, a free press, we veer toward authoritarianism. It's very surprising to hear so much critique of it here.

I can't speak for the others, but I yearn for a free and independent press. We don't have it and with the current media we are veering to authoritarianism.

I do read and listen to all sides, and I consider myself an independent thinker. See WITPQS link above for more detail.

You are misconstruing at least my argument. Very badly.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Victor Davis Hanson's piece on so-called journalism from two days ago.

Do the Media Even Exist?

[Canoerebel]

+1

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert


Without good journalism, a free press, we veer toward authoritarianism. It's very surprising to hear so much critique of it here.

I can't speak for the others, but I yearn for a free and independent press. We don't have it and with the current media we are veering to authoritarianism.

I do read and listen to all sides, and I consider myself an independent thinker. See WITPQS link above for more detail.

You are misconstruing at least my argument. Very badly.

[Lowpe]

I keep looking for numbers on suicides, but of course they don't exist in the US for at least two more years.

https://www.scribd.com/document/4597990 ... eport-Card

But here is a report card on how different Govs' are handling the virus and it has a little chart in the report. I question the numbers, but I don't question that unemployment has a direct effect with the outcomes mentioned.

In our rush to adopt a theory, we have certainly caused a lot of dire problems.


Anyhow, for example the article gives Wolfe, my gov, a F. It gives the Colorado and Georgia Govs an A.