OT: Corona virus

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The epicenter for the pandemic in the US is largely the northeast. This chart shows all states with above average mortality. All but one (Louisiana) is in the northeast (or rough vicinity). The spike sort of spread out from NYC to take in other big metro areas in the region.

The big question is whether the spread will continue outward to other big metro areas (and states), thus eventually reaching places not currently hit hard. If so, this truly will be a "table" graph throughout the summer.

It's not clear yet whether that's going to happen. For one thing, the virus has been present in many major urban areas for a long time but hasn't gotten an NYC-type grip. Perhaps it won't. Maybe density or packed subways or other factors make key differences.

It's still unclear whether warm weather is going to lend a helping hand. There have been contradictory positions taken on that throughout, even recently. On page one, Chickenboy offered his thoughts that weather could well have a salutary effect. I don't know if he has further thoughts on that, since more than two months have passed.

Quite frankly, I think we need a new column, died yesterday. New deaths I gather could have occurred anytime since February.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, New York just added in a bunch (1k) of deaths. Last week UK added 4,300 on one day, after adjusting tabulating criteria. One day in February, China changes it's criteria and reported a massive spike. That adds to the challenge of fully understanding what's going on and what the actual trends are.

[fcooke]

We have a hemp drying biz in PA. Agra - so essential. whatever. but keeps the guys getting paid.

[Lowpe]

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/n ... en-sourced

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pennsylvania has extended the lockdown to June 4th, two days after the primary election. Just wanted to give credit to my wife who predicted this early in the lockdown. And being a good husband, of course I had to agree with her.[:D]

One state's attempt to postpone an election was shot down by the judiciary. The same will likely happen in PA.

No, that is not what is happening here. The primary was delayed, and they pushed thru vote by mail which is unbelievable fraudulent method to vote -- Post Office is still looking for 24 million vote by mail ballots from the 2016 election for example.

Having an honest election in Pennsylvania was a challenge prior to this change. It is only going to get worse.

Being a former Hudson county (NJ for the non-locals) resident - there were a few phrases. Vote often (multiple times). And who are your dead relatives we can vote for? I think only Chicago can compare.

Tech works, but vote by mail is IMO going to end up in an interesting place.

[22sec]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/ic ... ronavirus/

Great find. It really is one of the most insightful and honest pieces I’ve seen since this has started.

The question I have is, are there other known viruses that are or were at one time, so baffling to scientist and the medical community. Are the numerous instances of bewilderment expressed by those communities during the past two months because we are so new to trying to understand this virus, or is this thing uniquely sinister?

[Canoerebel]

I recall that in one election (I think Obama vs. Romney, 2012) a number of precincts in Philadelphia reported 100% for the Democrat candidate. But even in the most stubbornly red or blue precincts in this nation, there are ALWAYS a few who think differently. Unanimity in the population never occurs.

[Canoerebel]

I read this, too. Both encouraging and sobering. Definitely well-written,.as 22 sec noted. Thanks for linking to it, Lowpe.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/ic ... ronavirus/

[Canoerebel]

Regarding the Philly precincts, here's a link to a New York Times story that looked into the situation (59 precincts voted 100%) and didn't turn up any irregularities: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/27/upsh ... fraud.html [I wasn't aware that this was such a major issue until Lowpe's post prompted memories of that situation, which led me to do a quick Google search a few minutes ago].

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/n ... en-sourced

I had a conversation with a co-worker with extensive experience in modelling the other day.

Haven't read the article yet, but their view was that modelling of this nature is so domain specific that the degree to which the models can be transferred from one subject area to another is quite limited.

Plus, the thought of all those undocumented lines of code hurts my soul.

While I can understand the resistance to putting the code up as open source, I think it is useful as an assurance mechanism to essentially crowd source quality control

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/ic ... ronavirus/

Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I recall that in one election (I think Obama vs. Romney, 2012) a number of precincts in Philadelphia reported 100% for the Democrat candidate. But even in the most stubbornly red or blue precincts in this nation, there are ALWAYS a few who think differently. Unanimity in the population never occurs.

Some voting precincts in Philly are over 100%. The highest I remember is 110%.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/n ... en-sourced

I had a conversation with a co-worker with extensive experience in modelling the other day.

Haven't read the article yet, but their view was that modelling of this nature is so domain specific that the degree to which the models can be transferred from one subject area to another is quite limited.

Plus, the thought of all those undocumented lines of code hurts my soul.

While I can understand the resistance to putting the code up as open source, I think it is useful as an assurance mechanism to essentially crowd source quality control

Totally agree with open sourcing. The model I put up with respect to GA, which is backed by heavy, heavy hitters, has been open sourced from day 1. They might be hideously wrong, but I think they are hideously honest. Your fault if you don't examine it.

Somewhere along the evolutionary trail polls became a method to move public opinion or justify a decision process. Having a lot of polling experience in my professional life, I know I can make a poll say anything I want to -- understanding the poll methodology is critical.

I think most people don't understand modelling and its need for looking under the hood, so to speak.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/ic ... ronavirus/

Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery

I read an English article quoting cancer doctors in the UK, that in 2021 there is going to be surge in cancer deaths due to delayed cancer treatments and delayed diagnosis. I will see if I can find it.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/n ... en-sourced

I had a conversation with a co-worker with extensive experience in modelling the other day.

Haven't read the article yet, but their view was that modelling of this nature is so domain specific that the degree to which the models can be transferred from one subject area to another is quite limited.

Plus, the thought of all those undocumented lines of code hurts my soul.

While I can understand the resistance to putting the code up as open source, I think it is useful as an assurance mechanism to essentially crowd source quality control

Totally agree with open sourcing. The model I put up with respect to GA, which is backed by heavy, heavy hitters, has been open sourced from day 1. They might be hideously wrong, but I think they are hideously honest. Your fault if you don't examine it.

Somewhere along the evolutionary trail polls became a method to move public opinion or justify a decision process. Having a lot of polling experience in my professional life, I know I can make a poll say anything I want to -- understanding the poll methodology is critical.

I think most people don't understand modelling and its need for looking under the hood, so to speak.

I think the real issue lies in areas where you are modelling established patterns of behaviour which, when people are made aware of, would lead to a change in behaviour and made the model less accurate.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing




I had a conversation with a co-worker with extensive experience in modelling the other day.

Haven't read the article yet, but their view was that modelling of this nature is so domain specific that the degree to which the models can be transferred from one subject area to another is quite limited.

Plus, the thought of all those undocumented lines of code hurts my soul.

While I can understand the resistance to putting the code up as open source, I think it is useful as an assurance mechanism to essentially crowd source quality control

Totally agree with open sourcing. The model I put up with respect to GA, which is backed by heavy, heavy hitters, has been open sourced from day 1. They might be hideously wrong, but I think they are hideously honest. Your fault if you don't examine it.

Somewhere along the evolutionary trail polls became a method to move public opinion or justify a decision process. Having a lot of polling experience in my professional life, I know I can make a poll say anything I want to -- understanding the poll methodology is critical.

I think most people don't understand modelling and its need for looking under the hood, so to speak.

I think the real issue lies in areas where you are modelling established patterns of behaviour which, when people are made aware of, would lead to a change in behaviour and made the model less accurate.

I would disagree. There is huge difference between say insurance company models and academic modelling.

I would argue that academic & ngo modelling should be excluded from being used as a public policy input. Why, simply because its track record is so consistently wrong and those models don't need a change in behavior to make the model less accurate.

[Lowpe]

This link is primarily for Obvert, it is about media bias, and goes back to a book about media bias from an insider years back that I recommended. Well, he just wrote another article about it.

In the age of Trump, media bias comes into the spotlight

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house ... -spotlight

[Lowpe]

K-12 school leaders warn of 'disaster' from huge coronavirus-related budget cuts as layoffs and furloughs begin

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/K-1 ... 256113.php

[Canoerebel]

Wow, that makes for interesting reading.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

This link is primarily for Obvert, it is about media bias, and goes back to a book about media bias from an insider years back. Well, he just wrote another article about it.

In the age of Trump, media bias comes into the spotlight

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house ... -spotlight

[Canoerebel]

Regarding the media, I've long been on the fringes of the industry. For most of my professional life, I've worked with or closely to the media - as a magazine publisher, lawyer, teacher and speaker.

I've seen the media attack people with tunnel vision - turning relentless spotlights on them, criticizing them unendingly, questioning every move and motive.

The media is powerful and usually moves as a herd. Getting in its way is like facing a stampede - one of the most terrible things an individual (or business, for that matter) can endure. You undergo relentless public attacks with no way of defending yourself or fighting back. If the media portray you as negligent, evil, stupid, biased, ignorant or whatever, you simply have to endure it indefinitely.

It can ruin lives and careers. There are countless prominent examples like Richard Jewell, the Jon Bonet Ramsey family, Dan Quayle (The Murphy Brown episode), George Bush (lacks gravitas) and on and on. But there are countless everyday people whose lives have been disrupted or destroyed. They have no means of fighting back.

Most cannot survive a relentless media attack since there's no real way of fighting back. That's what makes Donald Trump such a unique force. He doesn't cower; he fights back, and effectively so. And that's a big reasons that many Red State Americans support him. Because they've come to loathe the press.