OT: Corona virus

[fcooke]

my take was folks looking to 'get more'. Which sickens me......

[Lowpe]

2019-2020 Legislative Session
Relates to the removal of cases, contacts and carriers of communicable diseases who are potentially dangerous to the public health

https://www.nysenate.gov//legislation/bills/2019/A99

Medical arrest powers.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/n ... en-sourced

Trust Nodes appears to be a cryptocurrency news source. Is that right? I can find little about it an NO second reputable source to check any of these claims.

While the Imperial College findings were published and caused a splash, there are a lot of other sources that were used to determine policy in all of the countries that locked down. Many locked up well before these reports even came out.

Lockdown is not good for the economy, anywhere, but it was essential to mitigate losses in this first phase since due to many factors, there was no chance to effectively test, trace and isolate. People are tending to forget that the scenes in NY and surrounding were caused by unmitigated spread of this virus, and that would happen anywhere, much worse, given time and no measures.

This is an article about what was actually going on in these models that are currently being so vilified. The assertions in the above article are just plain silly. That the result of modelling were not replicable due to the age and unreliability of the code? Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor? I call BS on that.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/ic ... ronavirus/

Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery

I read an English article quoting cancer doctors in the UK, that in 2021 there is going to be surge in cancer deaths due to delayed cancer treatments and delayed diagnosis. I will see if I can find it.

Toady's grim unemployment numbers were worse than meets the eye. The absolute number was not a big surprise. The distribution was the real bad news. It's not just the retail and hospitality which was expected to make up the bulk of the newly unemployed. In actuality, it was less than half. Manufacturing, computers, white collar, legal, government (about 450,000 teachers), construction and most surprisingly employment in health care fell by 1.4 million as Americans avoided visits to their doctors and dentists for all but the direst emergencies. Basic preventative care is being neglected and that is a bit of a time bomb.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?

WHO WOULD BUY A USED COMPUTER MODEL FROM ‘BONKING BOFFIN’ FERGUSON?
https://americanpriority.com/news/who-w ... -ferguson/

and more:

citing reporting by the British newspaper The Telegraph:

“Ferguson has been wrong so often that some of his fellow modelers call him ‘The Master of Disaster.’

“Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die.

“In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

“In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

“In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.”

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery

I read an English article quoting cancer doctors in the UK, that in 2021 there is going to be surge in cancer deaths due to delayed cancer treatments and delayed diagnosis. I will see if I can find it.

Toady's grim unemployment numbers were worse than meets the eye. The absolute number was not a big surprise. The distribution was the real bad news. It's not just the retail and hospitality which was expected to make up the bulk of the newly unemployed. In actuality, it was less than half. Manufacturing, computers, white collar, legal, government (about 450,000 teachers), construction and most surprisingly employment in health care fell by 1.4 million as Americans avoided visits to their doctors and dentists for all but the direst emergencies. Basic preventative care is being neglected and that is a bit of a time bomb.

It took 8.3 years for the US to recover from the 2008 economic crisis, this meltdown is worse.

[JohnDillworth]

It took 8.3 years for the US to recover from the 2008 economic crisis, this meltdown is worse.

Yup. So many things. People are not going to trust restaurants and bars in large numbers for a long time. Airlines and hotels? Even if you could afford it do you trust them? Who is buying a new car when your unemployed or worried about your job? New housing starts? Maybe, if people want to flee the city. Major construction? Not likely. They will finish whats going on but financing new stuff wont be easy. Health and hospitals? Many hospitals will close. Luxury goods? Retail? Brick and mortar retail was dying before this. Office and professional services jobs? We just found out we don't need so many people and most of those can work at home? Government jobs? Big cuts coming there. Cruise Ships? Ding-Dong-Dead! I just don't see many growth industries. And what kind of economy are we running when the the stock markets spikes up every time millions of people loose their jobs? I don't know why but this makes me sad and angry. I suspect when the 2nd wave or the next lock-down hits (As always I'm on "Team Science") the markets may get the point. With 20 million people out of work who is going to drive an economy that is 75% based on consumer spending?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took 8.3 years for the US to recover from the 2008 economic crisis, this meltdown is worse.

Yup. So many things. People are not going to trust restaurants and bars in large numbers for a long time. Airlines and hotels? Even if you could afford it do you trust them? Who is buying a new car when your unemployed or worried about your job? New housing starts? Maybe, if people want to flee the city. Major construction? Not likely. They will finish whats going on but financing new stuff wont be easy. Health and hospitals? Many hospitals will close. Luxury goods? Retail? Brick and mortar retail was dying before this. Office and professional services jobs? We just found out we don't need so many people and most of those can work at home? Government jobs? Big cuts coming there. Cruise Ships? Ding-Dong-Dead! I just don't see many growth industries. And what kind of economy are we running when the the stock markets spikes up every time millions of people loose their jobs? I don't know why but this makes me sad and angry. I suspect when the 2nd wave or the next lock-down hits (As always I'm on "Team Science") the markets may get the point. With 20 million people out of work who is going to drive an economy that is 75% based on consumer spending?

Take solace in the fact that in the short term the stock market is irrational.

[JohnDillworth]

Take solace in the fact that in the short term the stock market is irrational.

I used to think there were brilliant experts in the markets. I'm convinced they are mostly a bunch of emotional idiots and to some extent the game is rigged against the little guy in the short run. Too much insider info. Warren Buffet was right. Buy an index fund and let it sit there for 10 years and it will out preform every "expert". If you watch the financial channels they are absolutely confident and convinced they know what they are talking about. They don't. We have never, ever, been in a place like this in out lifetimes and anybody that thinks they know whats going to happen is trying to sell you something. This is true for everything. Your guess is as good as mine. They don't know anything more than you or I and if you are bright, and have decent reasoning skills, you probably know more.

[Lowpe]

Delingpole: Ferguson’s Dodgy Model Has Engendered a World-Historical Blunder

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/0 ... l-blunder/

Now I wouldn't go here...as Delingpole's cites the lockdown skeptic analysis of code that I linked to several days ago. It is not enough for me.

But there are a lot of good questions asked in the article. Oh, I would love to see anyone from this thread get the chance to ask the Press Secretary a question rather than the jokers in that room....

[Lowpe]

I am sure this will be good for business. I wonder what the legal basis for taking them over?


LA city council votes to name hotels that refuse to house homeless, may 'commandeer' them


https://www.foxnews.com/us/la-city-coun ... ndeer-them

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Take solace in the fact that in the short term the stock market is irrational.

I used to think there were brilliant experts in the markets. I'm convinced they are mostly a bunch of emotional idiots and to some extent the game is rigged against the little guy in the short run. Too much insider info. Warren Buffet was right. Buy an index fund and let it sit there for 10 years and it will out preform every "expert". If you watch the financial channels they are absolutely confident and convinced they know what they are talking about. They don't. We have never, ever, been in a place like this in out lifetimes and anybody that thinks they know whats going to happen is trying to sell you something. This is true for everything. Your guess is as good as mine. They don't know anything more than you or I and if you are bright, and have decent reasoning skills, you probably know more.

Buffet just sold all his airplane holdings.[;)]

When I was in college, In Search of Excellence was the thought in business. When I left the working world, I would have been happy to have found competence. I ran a small business, max 35 employees, that serviced primarily Fortune 500 companies. Every single one incompetence ruled the day and it got worse from year to year. It always amazed me that they could post profits.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?

No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.

PS - It's quite clear you don't really care what I'm adding to the conversation, since you obviously didn't actually read what was posted in the 3-4 minutes it took to post your response.

[Canoerebel]

All this economic stuff is enough to keep one awake at night. Not to mention that it follows, and now walks alongside, three months of worries about a novel virus that flamed into pandemic.

Yuck.

Hey, but I know of a man who was utterly destitute yet wrote from jail, with complete conviction, "I have learned to be content whatever the circumstances." That's priceless.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?

No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.

No, absolutely not. I have stated on numerous occasions that experimentation and local decision making is what I favor.

But blindingly accepting things I can't do.

[22sec]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

All this economic stuff is enough to keep one awake at night. Not to mention that it follows, and now walks alongside, three months of worries about a novel virus that flamed into pandemic.

Yuck.

Hey, but I know of a man who was utterly destitute yet wrote from jail, with complete conviction, "I have learned to be content whatever the circumstances." That's priceless.

Amen!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?

No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.

No, absolutely not. I have stated on numerous occasions that experimentation and local decision making is what I favor.

Well, that's what is happening in the States, right? How does questioning higher mortality levels modelled two months ago help your position?

The US would have used independent models and predictions regardless of the awareness of the Imperial figures, and the UK has as well. Have a read of the article if you want to know more.

[Nomad]

This might have been posted before, but I find it so stupid:

The FDA wants us to social distance from our pets.

https://news.yahoo.com/fda-recommending ... 54087.html

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Nomad

This might have been posted before, but I find it so stupid:

The FDA wants us to social distance from our pets.

https://news.yahoo.com/fda-recommending ... 54087.html

And they can go fly a kite.......

Since propriety dictates I not tell them what they can really do.....

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert



No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.

No, absolutely not. I have stated on numerous occasions that experimentation and local decision making is what I favor.

Well, that's what is happening in the States, right? How does questioning higher mortality levels modelled two months ago help your position?

The US would have used independent models and predictions regardless of the awareness of the Imperial figures, and the UK has as well. Have a read of the article if you want to know more.

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

I did read the article you posted. It didn't answer really the critiques of his code. For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8