OT: Corona virus

[Cap Mandrake]

We need a morale booster. I think they should set up giant speakers in every city in the US and play Tom Petty's "I won't back down" and have everyone come outside at the same time and sing along. Probably everyone between 30 and 75 knows the song in the US.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?

[Cap Mandrake]

Or have Sir Paul do a worldwide video feed of Hey Jude.

The entire planet probably knows the the "na na na" chorus.

[fcooke]

Obvert - please focus on your new family member. I don't know why you are poking at people but it is getting old.

And best wishes with the larger family.

[JohnDillworth]

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... 0-same-day

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... 0-same-day

How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?

Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.

[fcooke]

And how does letting inmates out help the cause? At least in jail they can be controlled/tested/etc. But if they are infected letting them into the general population makes what kind of sense?

And perhaps their pre-prison tendencies remain. I will not vote for 95 percent of our elected 'leaders'. Stupid is just stupid.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?

Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.

That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8

Watching it. Here are the main points:


Lockdown reduced transmission to 0.6 in the UK by May.

Every country has failed to shield the old and vulnerable.

We should be looking at South Korea as a model. The only way to use their model is to get case numbers low enough to help shield vulnerable better, use tracking and isolation.

Also, once case numbers are low other medical issues can be treated more effectively again, reducing non-Covid excess deaths.

If lockdown had not occurred health system would be overwhelmed and both Covid deaths and those from other treatable conditions would have been higher.

Once case numbers are low relaxing more areas of the economy will be possible.

Some social distancing will be necessary until a vaccine is developed.

Some hospitals were at capacity in London during the peak, but the lockdown prevented the overall system being overwhelmed, unlike NYC, which was worse.

There is a tradeoff now as we open between what is able to open and the goal of lowering case numbers, as pointed out above.

If you run a higher transmission rate than Ro = 1 then you will have a higher mortality rate. They've run scenarios for higher transmission rates and it would be very hard to shield the vulnerable in these scenarios. Sceptical it's achievable, and there might be more than 100k deaths in those situations by the end of the year in the UK.

Middle and lower income people much more vulnerable. Hard to protect them for multiple reasons. Same is true for many developing countries around the world.

Worried science will be distorted to support different political agendas, negating it's objective findings.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... 0-same-day

How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.

I would agree it was here earlier.

I'm not sure these meat plants and prisons would indicate that though. They factors they share are: interiors, closely packed with the same people every day. What we do know about this is that it transmits easily, and now they think possibly more easily than original strains, and it does best in indoor areas. Plus it may be viable as aerosol for hours in still environments.

This is the first to indicate serology testing that I've seen. I'd like to see how many current vs how many previous cases though.

With daily transmissions and exponential growth, you get one case in there, to those same 2,000 people daily, its going to go through them fast. I'd say though that this probably means it's quite a lot more prevalent outside those facilities in those communities than is currently known.

[JohnDillworth]

Obvert,
Sorry, haven't been in the forum much the last few weeks. I understand you had a blessed event? Congratulations!

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert




Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?

Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.

That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?

It is a ridiculous question. Labeling anyone anti- something is very derogatory.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8

Watching it. Here are the main points:


Lockdown reduced transmission to 0.6 in the UK by May.

Every country has failed to shield the old and vulnerable.

We should be looking at South Korea as a model. The only way to use their model is to get case numbers low enough to help shield vulnerable better, use tracking and isolation.

Also, once case numbers are low other medical issues can be treated more effectively again, reducing non-Covid excess deaths.

If lockdown had not occurred health system would be overwhelmed and both Covid deaths and those from other treatable conditions would have been higher.

Once case numbers are low relaxing more areas of the economy will be possible.

Some social distancing will be necessary until a vaccine is developed.

Some hospitals were at capacity in London during the peak, but the lockdown prevented the overall system being overwhelmed, unlike NYC, which was worse.

There is a tradeoff now as we open between what is able to open and the goal of lowering case numbers, as pointed out above.

If you run a higher transmission rate than Ro = 1 then you will have a higher mortality rate. They've run scenarios for higher transmission rates and it would be very hard to shield the vulnerable in these scenarios. Sceptical it's achievable, and there might be more than 100k deaths in those situations by the end of the year in the UK.

Middle and lower income people much more vulnerable. Hard to protect them for multiple reasons. Same is true for many developing countries around the world.

Worried science will be distorted to support different political agendas, negating it's objective findings.

It is a good interview, I like this interviewer, I have watched two of his other interviews (well, listened to them while I cut the grass).

I would like to have seen more talk of South Korea, and also more of a discussion of his disagreement with Sweeden's route.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... 0-same-day

How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.

I'd like to see how many current vs how many previous cases though.

Me too. But we aren't seeing a high death count or hospitalization level because you would think that would be reported. 1,000 infected means how many dead: 1%; well that would be 10. Half a percent, that would mean 5. I think that would make the story.

[obvert]

So, in watching the Neil Furgeson interview I got sidetracked. A very interesting watch, BTW, thanks Lowpe.

This is what I wanted to post.

A business acquaintance of my wife is Chinese, from Sian. He said he had the worst case of coughing and flu he's ever had, got pneumonia, and it took him a month to get rid of it.

This is the kicker. He had that in September. He said it was going around then.

Firstly, that is a very early start to the flu season in a place where average temperature in Aug is 30C(86F) and in Sept is 26C(79F).

Secondly, that is a very bad and strangely familiar sounding case of the flu.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe




How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.

I'd like to see how many current vs how many previous cases though.

Me too. But we aren't seeing a high death count or hospitalization level because you would think that would be reported. 1,000 infected means how many dead: 1%; well that would be 10. Half a percent, that would mean 5. I think that would make the story.

We'd have to see age and health stats for workers too though to see how they compare to known risk groups.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8

Watching it. Here are the main points:


Lockdown reduced transmission to 0.6 in the UK by May.

Every country has failed to shield the old and vulnerable.

We should be looking at South Korea as a model. The only way to use their model is to get case numbers low enough to help shield vulnerable better, use tracking and isolation.

Also, once case numbers are low other medical issues can be treated more effectively again, reducing non-Covid excess deaths.

If lockdown had not occurred health system would be overwhelmed and both Covid deaths and those from other treatable conditions would have been higher.

Once case numbers are low relaxing more areas of the economy will be possible.

Some social distancing will be necessary until a vaccine is developed.

Some hospitals were at capacity in London during the peak, but the lockdown prevented the overall system being overwhelmed, unlike NYC, which was worse.

There is a tradeoff now as we open between what is able to open and the goal of lowering case numbers, as pointed out above.

If you run a higher transmission rate than Ro = 1 then you will have a higher mortality rate. They've run scenarios for higher transmission rates and it would be very hard to shield the vulnerable in these scenarios. Sceptical it's achievable, and there might be more than 100k deaths in those situations by the end of the year in the UK.

Middle and lower income people much more vulnerable. Hard to protect them for multiple reasons. Same is true for many developing countries around the world.

Worried science will be distorted to support different political agendas, negating it's objective findings.

It is a good interview, I like this interviewer, I have watched two of his other interviews (well, listened to them while I cut the grass).

I would like to have seen more talk of South Korea, and also more of a discussion of his disagreement with Sweeden's route.

He seems to say enough to understand their death rate, at the time the same per capita as NYC apparently, was very high compared to other strategies. I thought his stance on Korea being the model to follow implied what he thought of the Swedish choice. You have to get case numbers down to follow that model, and Sweden's course is to allow a (hopefully) slow burn through the population.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe




Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.

That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?

It is a ridiculous question. Labeling anyone anti- something is very derogatory.

I didn't label you. I noticed may of your posts trend toward articles and other that are anti-lockdown, and asked about that. It's just above. It's a question.

I'm also confused by your response. So asked about that too. Sorry.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Obvert,
Sorry, haven't been in the forum much the last few weeks. I understand you had a blessed event? Congratulations!

Thanks! Really appreciate the support.

Not here yet though. Still waiting.