OT: Corona virus

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert


He seems to say enough to understand their death rate, at the time the same per capita as NYC apparently, was very high compared to other strategies. I thought his stance on Korea being the model to follow implied what he thought of the Swedish choice. You have to get case numbers down to follow that model, and Sweden's course is to allow a (hopefully) slow burn through the population.

Perhaps he has better information, because going back in time of the interview,according to worldometer graphs,Sweden is declining and nowhere near New York state, let along a more narrow focus on NYC. At least in deaths per million.

Only noticed because of one of the comments so I quickly double checked.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert




That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?

It is a ridiculous question. Labeling anyone anti- something is very derogatory.

I didn't label you. I noticed may of your posts trend toward articles and other that are anti-lockdown, and asked about that. It's just above. It's a question.

I'm also confused by your response. So asked about that too. Sorry.

If you perceive a bias, then it is there for you.

I don't think my posts are anti-lockdown. I think they are informative especially on topics that don't see a lot of discussion. I am not even sure what anti-lockdown means.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

So, in watching the Neil Furgeson interview I got sidetracked. A very interesting watch, BTW, thanks Lowpe.

This is what I wanted to post.

A business acquaintance of my wife is Chinese, from Sian. He said he had the worst case of coughing and flu he's ever had, got pneumonia, and it took him a month to get rid of it.

This is the kicker. He had that in September. He said it was going around then.

Firstly, that is a very early start to the flu season in a place where average temperature in Aug is 30C(86F) and in Sept is 26C(79F).

Secondly, that is a very bad and strangely familiar sounding case of the flu.

No, You Did Not Get COVID-19 in the Fall of 2019
https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/co ... -bunk.html

first detected strain in US

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/north-ameri ... A/WA1/2020

[Cap Mandrake]

The genomic mutation rate data are EXTREMELY powerful and convincing. Not only that, they can identify the individual mutations budding up over time and precisely identify the strain of origin of each new mutation, thereby tracing it back to the original strain of origin recovered from a patient in Wuhan in Late December. It's impossible for this virus to have been in the US since the Fall, given it's extremely aggressive transmission behavior.
,
In the US we ALWAYS see an uptick in respiratory illnesses in September when school starts. Adenovirus, parainfluenza, RSV, mycoplasma etc. etc.

[Canoerebel]

Man. The Press. I'm not sure what else to say.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The genomic mutation rate data are EXTREMELY powerful and convincing. Not only that, they can identify the individual mutations budding up over time and precisely identify the strain of origin of each new mutation, thereby tracing it back to the original strain of origin recovered from a patient in Wuhan in Late December. It's impossible for this virus to have been in the US since the Fall, given it's extremely aggressive transmission behavior.
,
In the US we ALWAYS see an uptick in respiratory illnesses in September when school starts. Adenovirus, parainfluenza, RSV, mycoplasma etc. etc.

It's my understanding the CCP had the samples from early patients destroyed.

[Cap Mandrake]

Uggh. Two of our office suite LVN's are down with fever.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The genomic mutation rate data are EXTREMELY powerful and convincing. Not only that, they can identify the individual mutations budding up over time and precisely identify the strain of origin of each new mutation, thereby tracing it back to the original strain of origin recovered from a patient in Wuhan in Late December. It's impossible for this virus to have been in the US since the Fall, given it's extremely aggressive transmission behavior.
,
In the US we ALWAYS see an uptick in respiratory illnesses in September when school starts. Adenovirus, parainfluenza, RSV, mycoplasma etc. etc.

It's my understanding the CCP had the samples from early patients destroyed.

They did destroy some specimens, yes. This means the first available specimen may not be patient zero but the earliest human specimen available is from Wuhan and all subsequent mutations seem to derive from his specimen .

Check out the Nextstrain site Lowpe posted. It's very powerful stuff.

[Cap Mandrake]

It's the mutation rate analysis that allows Nexstrain to estimate late November or early December for the jump to humans..otherwise there likely would have been multiple strains circulating in Wuhan in late December.

[pontiouspilot]

The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are shitty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are shitty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.

Excellent point.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... 0-same-day

How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.

They work in shoulder to shoulder conditions (assembly line meat trimming), get covered in blood and gore (which would helps sustain the virus), are not allowed to leave the line just because they have a cough, are paid minimum wage with no benefits so they can't afford to miss work, and the employer does nothing to try and suppress the virus or the transmission possibilities. Masks are an employee responsibility. And because the workers are poor, they suffer the nutrition and obesity issues of other poor populations - too much salty/fatty cheap food and not enough veggies etc. to bolster their systems.

One plant said it would test everyone before opening (after over a hundred were critically ill and it shut for a couple of weeks). VP Pence said he would ensure they got tests. The company tested supervisors and management and had an 80% positive rate, so they decided not to bother testing the workers and still made them come to work as "essential workers". They still have not been tested. This is the plant in Waterloo, Iowa that the CDC inspected after the initial outbreak and wrote a lengthy list of things required before it should reopen again. But before the report was released the flavour was changed from mandatory requirements to "suggestions". The plant owners (who are friends of the President) did nothing on the list.

Anyone suggesting too much is being made of the situation in meat packing plants is not paying attention, IMO.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are shitty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.

The poor immigrant meme that you describe is not unique to meat packing - so why are meat packing plants so bad in comparison to other places where these people work? The working conditions are a powerful contributor to the spread of the virus. It was detected very broadly in the plants before it was rampant among their families.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

So, in watching the Neil Furgeson interview I got sidetracked. A very interesting watch, BTW, thanks Lowpe.

This is what I wanted to post.

A business acquaintance of my wife is Chinese, from Sian. He said he had the worst case of coughing and flu he's ever had, got pneumonia, and it took him a month to get rid of it.

This is the kicker. He had that in September. He said it was going around then.

Firstly, that is a very early start to the flu season in a place where average temperature in Aug is 30C(86F) and in Sept is 26C(79F).

Secondly, that is a very bad and strangely familiar sounding case of the flu.

No, You Did Not Get COVID-19 in the Fall of 2019
https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/co ... -bunk.html

first detected strain in US

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/north-ameri ... A/WA1/2020

Very good Slate article and it shows exactly why these things need a lot of fact checking. Hanson, quoted in the article about Fall spread in the US, is not a doctor and has an agenda relating to opening up the economy very soon regardless of "science" modelling, (which apparently he derides by putting it in quotes to call it into question, and that he wants fewer Chinese to study and travel to the US.

Due to this thread and it's many resources we've gone through the virus genetic tracing studies earlier, and know of the Nov 17 date of the earliest known case in China. I remember that date well because my wife returned from Xian that day.

My posting of this annecdotal story is to offer a possible extension to that. Not being a scientist, I don't know if some of these genetic studies have an error factor of a month or two, or if they're rock solid. It was obviously transmitting before the known case on Nov 17 was seen in hospital due to the gestation period for him and possibly whoever he caught it from. We've also read studies saying this is a slowly mutating virus genetically, so I wondered if in the initial phase, when the earlier strain was not transmitting as readily, before it's mutation, it slowly spread across pockets of the Chinese population.

I look forward to learning more.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are shitty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.

Excellent point.

Well, as they say in the Wisconsin Supreme Court: "(The surge) was due to the meatpacking — that's where Brown County got the flare," "It wasn't just the regular folks in Brown County." . Not in the "REGULAR FOLKS"......wonder what that judge meant?
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/inv ... 175593002/
Almost like some "folks" are more disposable than others. Well good morning America, it's in the White House too. Not so sure mass reopening are the best idea but we are about to find out. I would not be surprised if real numbers start to get harder to find and maybe even questions as to if the exiting numbers are real at all. I hope for our country we know what we are doing

[JohnDillworth]

In many parts of the Northeast the Saturday before Mothers day is the traditional start of the Little League season starting with the morning parades. Kind of a small town America thing. Another silly thing we lost this year. All for the best as it is barely above freezing and we had just a touch of snow last night. Someone needs to unplug 2020, wait 2 minutes, and plug it back in again. Hard Reboot

[MakeeLearn]

A meat giant is anxious as virus shuts two Brazil chicken plants
5 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... li=BBnb7Kz



"Bloomberg) -- Two giant meat companies in Brazil, the world’s top chicken exporter, were ordered to shut a poultry plant in the past 24 hours, and analysts warned more closures loom as the coronavirus threatens food supplies."

[MakeeLearn]

Some See Plot To Create 'World Government' In Coronavirus Restrictions
May 8, 2020

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... strictions


"In the latest example, a manifesto promoted by conservative Catholics alleges that the Covid-19 pandemic is being used as a "pretext" to deprive citizens around the world of their fundamental freedoms and promote "a world government."

The appeal, led by Archbishop Carlo Viganò, a former apostolic nuncio to the United States, was released Thursday in Rome and includes the signatures of at least two cardinals and a U.S. bishop, Joseph Strickland of Tyler, Texas, as well as anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the son of Robert F. Kennedy and the nephew of President John F. Kennedy. The manifesto cites "growing doubts ... about the actual contagiousness, danger, and resistance of the virus.""

[MakeeLearn]

THE CORONAVIRUS HAS WRECKED THE ECONOMY
May 8, 2020


https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones ... 26647836da


"he U.S. Department of Labor released April’s job report this morning and it was the worst one-month report ever. There were 20.5 million jobs lost and the unemployment rate skyrocketed from 4.4% in March to 14.7% in April, which is the highest rate and the largest month-to-month increase in the history of the report.

It is a stunning number that’s only topped by levels reached during the Great Depression (there was no official unemployment report at the time but the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates unemployment may have reached 25%). The largest decrease in employment on record occurred in September 1945 when 1.96 million people lost their jobs affecting 3.3% of the workforce. "

[MakeeLearn]

....Creepy...

"We are businesses, nonprofits, governments and individuals...working in collaboration to ensure that the future of digital identity is, indeed, #goodID."

https://id2020.org/