OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

Almost a week ago, IHME significantly revised its mortality projections. A quick look shows that the US is beneath the projection but within the margin of error, and Georgia is beneath the projection and outside the margin of error. A quick look around the map shows that these states are also under: New York, Texas, Ohio, Minnesota, Colorado. These a bit over: Missouri and Florida.

Historically, over the past six weeks, IHME would revise projections regularly, usually about twice a week. The last change resulted in such consternation (change is by itself unsettling) that I wondered if the group would try to refrain from doing so for awhile. In this case, there probably isn't a need to do so yet. Unless things were really spiraling downward (or, less likely, drastically improving), give the new projections some time to establish a track record.

There may be uncertainties about reported numbers, but we've been using IHME and Worldometers from the start (or since it began, in the case of IHME). There is some merit in consistency, hopefully.

[Canoerebel]

Shortly after my state began easing countermeasures 15 days ago, John Dillworth (from NYC) posted to this effect (paraphrasing): "Good luck to Georgia as it begins serving as a test case for the rest of us." His comment was good-natured but certainly made a key point. We'd want to monitor the vanguard carefully to see how things went.

Denmark began easing in mid-April, Germany and Georgia later in the month. To this point, there haven't been statewide/nationwide spikes in any of these places. Cases and mortalities have dropped in Germany and Denmark, though with the stubborn "comet tail" feature that Lokasenna introduced into the conversation. Georgia is earlier in the curve, having started and sustained an encouraging (but still early) downward trend. These places should have reached, or should be reaching, points where problems begin popping up if even "any easing" is going to be an issue. Stay tuned, but so far, so good.

[obvert]

This article from the The Spectator feels like an interesting and balanced take on the Neil Ferguson code and his role as an advisor to the UK government. It does criticise the code, but in spite of the linked anonymous analysis, as I've read on multiple sites now, the main issue with the code as they used it at Imperial is not that it's actually inaccurate, it's simply unintelligible to others to confirm those results using other systems.

That is a problem, but not one that has somehow changed the course of the decisions of several governments alone, as some are now very dramatically stating in links posted earlier from sources such as Breitbart.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/for ... s-scrutiny

Ferguson’s model has not led the UK down a drastically different path from that of many other countries – indeed, it only recommended lockdown relatively late versus those used by other countries. It likely contains errors, but it’s hardly a huge outlier from the international consensus. Those looking for anything to show lockdown is an error should search for another straw to grasp.

We should, though, welcome the efforts to test and even to tear down the Imperial model. This is what the scientific process is – a spirited and often fractious public debate, a battle place of ideas. It is rarely as high-minded and public-spirited as those who place it on a pedestal would hope.

Peer reviewers savage a paper because it contradicts their own research, or because they’ve guessed who the author is and can’t stand them. Institutions battle for fame and for funding. People hold grudges. Personality, like politics, doesn’t stop at the water’s edge – good work comes out of dubious motivations.

The interview posted by Lowpe also much more thoroughly explains reasons for lockdowns and getting Ro low, then getting case numbers low as economies reopen.

[obvert]

Testing again here. The UK seems to be consistently dropping 0.4% per day now in percentage positive in testing. The US holding about the same. Not many other updated reports form countries I've been looking at.

[JohnDillworth]

tick, tick, tick 2 days ago only 1 state exceed the R0 infection value of 1.0 This morning, 3 states exceed the value and many others have increased. Now more and more states are opening up. https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/
Instead of any semblance of a unified policy we have now entered "Choose Your Own Adventure" land.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

....Creepy...

"We are businesses, nonprofits, governments and individuals...working in collaboration to ensure that the future of digital identity is, indeed, #goodID."

https://id2020.org/

Never trust a guy who wants everyone on the planet to have a vaccine verification card, but REFUSED to have his own children vaccinated.

[Cap Mandrake]

Mutation rate analysis absolutely has an error range because you are talking about a biological process which is the result of random events but, even so, it is pretty solid science given the thousands of genome sequencings already done on the demon virus.

The only data point one can offer with certitude is the earliest patient with a proven recovery of the viral genome from specimens. Even with Wuhan doctors on the lookout for SARS-like diseases, it is almost inevitable there would be no identification of patient zero clinically because there was no test at the time. The human brain recognizes patterns. It takes a second or third patient to recognize the pattern.

[Cap Mandrake]

Fortunately, climate models suffer no such shortcomings and are able to predict what kind of shirt I should wear on March 28, 2050 (if I am lucky enough to still need a shirt)[;)]

[Canoerebel]

We went into this with federalism, and we're coming out with it that way too. I don't have a problem with that, though I know others prefer a different model. I'm glad my governor made the calls both ways, rather than a higher-up, more remote, and possibly more detached and less real-world politician.

It's probably too early for most other states that have begun easing to see any results, positive or negative, given the two- to three-week lag. So my first hunch would be that any statistically meaningful rises or falls in Ro rates would be due to local factors apart from easing. We're not even sure if the two additional states you're referring to have eased off - that would be the first thing to check.

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

tick, tick, tick 2 days ago only 1 state exceed the R0 infection value of 1.0 This morning, 3 states exceed the value and many others have increased. Now more and more states are opening up. https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/
Instead of any semblance of a unified policy we have now entered "Choose Your Own Adventure" land.

[JohnDillworth]

We went into this with federalism, and we're coming out with it that way too.

There are 2 words in the name of our country and only one of them is "States". We need a little more work on the other word. Imagine fighting a World War and every State went into it with it's own army and it's own plan? We would be routed in short order. This is not a State problem. They entire country is threatened.

[witpqs]

On YouTube from the BBC.
Coronavirus: Is the government really ‘following the science’? - BBC Newsnight

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

We went into this with federalism, and we're coming out with it that way too.

There are 2 words in the name of our country and only one of them is "States". We need a little more work on the other word.

May I ask why we need a little more work on the other word?

[JohnDillworth]

May I ask why we need a little more work on the other word?

I amended above Imagine fighting a World War and every State went into it with it's own army and it's own plan? We would be routed in short order. This is not a State problem. The entire country is threatened. This is a global threat and our entire country is under attack. Do you think 50 individual efforts would work better than one united effort? Why do we have a Republic at all? If not for common defense then for what?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Fortunately, climate models suffer no such shortcomings and are able to predict what kind of shirt I should wear on March 28, 2050 (if I am lucky enough to still need a shirt)[;)]

I haven't actually seen the documentary but this is interesting. I think that the reason for the windmills at sea is so the birds that get killed by the windmill will get eaten by fish and won't get counted:

The Left 'has attacked' Michael Moore for his 'Planet Human' documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzQxaUVtmUA

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

We went into this with federalism, and we're coming out with it that way too.

There are 2 words in the name of our country and only one of them is "States". We need a little more work on the other word.

May I ask why we need a little more work on the other word?

We don't. We have plenty of that already.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are shitty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.

Excellent point.

I thought that there were enough American high school dropouts that could do this work so that the US would not have to import un/undereducated people to do this work. Then the worker should be able to understand English, American style.

I understand that in big Canada land that they do have a guest/temporary worker program so they could ensure that those legal temporary/guest workers could understand enough English, Canadian style. One point of emphasis would be for those workers from a warm climate would be that they should procure and wear a good, warm touk.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

May I ask why we need a little more work on the other word?

I amended above Imagine fighting a World War and every State went into it with it's own army and it's own plan? We would be routed in short order. This is not a State problem. They entire country is threatened. This is a global threat and our entire country is under attack. Do you think 50 individual efforts would work better than one united effort?

The United States does have an Army with a unified leadership. Are you stating otherwise? Did you ever serve in the New York State army or the army of any state that you lived in?

Thee is nothing wrong with every state having its own plan, that way each state can decide what to do according to its own unique situation. Then the best things from each state can be seen and utilized by all of them.

Or would you rather have a top down mandate that nursing homes and assisted living facilities must take potentially positive COVID-19 patients with no knowledge of whether or not that they have it and place them with people who do not have it? How did that work for the state that did that? Do you know what state that is? Or is that just an attempt to dispose of the high risk people who have higher medical costs?

[JohnDillworth]

Or would you rather have a top down mandate that nursing homes and assisted living facilities must take potentially positive COVID-19 patients with no knowledge of whether or not that they have it and place them with people who do not have it? How did that work for the state that did that? Do you know what state that is? Or is that just an attempt to dispose of the high risk people who have higher medical costs?

Nice straw man but I said nothing of the sort. All attacks are not military in nature. I submit to you that the country is under attack from a virus. This attack is killing 4 times as many Americas a day as died in WWII. This is an attack on our country. Are you stating that 50 different strategies to combating this attack will be more successful than one, united strategy or do you dispute the notion that we are under attack?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Or would you rather have a top down mandate that nursing homes and assisted living facilities must take potentially positive COVID-19 patients with no knowledge of whether or not that they have it and place them with people who do not have it? How did that work for the state that did that? Do you know what state that is? Or is that just an attempt to dispose of the high risk people who have higher medical costs?

Nice straw man but I said nothing of the sort. All attacks are not military in nature. I submit to you that the country is under attack from a virus. This attack is killing 4 times as many Americas a day as died in WWII. This is an attack on our country. Are you stating that 50 different strategies to combating this attack will be more successful than one, united strategy or do you dispute the notion that we are under attack?

Your own straw man.

Would you extend the 'one' strategy approach to the world?

Protecting those most at risk makes more sense than increasing deaths and disease from other causes with too long and too severe a lock down for all. I saw the photos taken of the crowded NYC subway, a sure place to exchange the pathogen, while at the same time people were being vilified for 'violating quarantine' by venturing into the open air.

Presenting the virus pandemic as an 'attack' is, like all analogies, useful only to a point. Carrying that too far only serves to mandate emotion over reason.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Or would you rather have a top down mandate that nursing homes and assisted living facilities must take potentially positive COVID-19 patients with no knowledge of whether or not that they have it and place them with people who do not have it? How did that work for the state that did that? Do you know what state that is? Or is that just an attempt to dispose of the high risk people who have higher medical costs?

Nice straw man but I said nothing of the sort. All attacks are not military in nature. I submit to you that the country is under attack from a virus. This attack is killing 4 times as many Americas a day as died in WWII. This is an attack on our country. Are you stating that 50 different strategies to combating this attack will be more successful than one, united strategy or do you dispute the notion that we are under attack?

Nice name calling there for no reason. I am definitely not a scarecrow.

But you stated Army, that implies a military attack.

Yes, I would rather have 50 different strategies to find the best one than to have one imposed upon me. Especially when no one knew exactly the best way to fight this new coronavirus.

You never did state anything about the imposition of potentially positive COVID-19 patients being forced upon nursing homes and assisted living homes. Was your name calling an attempt to deflect from that?