OT: Corona virus

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy



My dad and mom were heavy smokers and I blame it as one of the factors for my mom dying at 62 from a heart attack (she was very slim, so obesity was not a factor). My dad had a minor heart attack and quit smoking soon after, living another thirty years.

In Britain and Canada, the calculations about tobacco tax revenue vs health costs borne by the taxpayers in general shows that it would be better to ban smoking, but social customs are not easily banned so they were eased out by making it more difficult to smoke everywhere. For the same reasons, drinking alcohol leads to more total health costs than the revenues from taxes, but social customs and restaurant/bar survival depend on alcohol so it is partly controlled rather than banned. Vaping was invented to get around the smoking restrictions but the chemicals being used have been proven to cause lung damage too.

As with many things, moderate alcohol use is largely beneficial to our overall well being (including social relationships in that), but binging and addictive drinking are a problem. I see no benefits from smoking or vaping, except to support a habit of putting something in our mouths.

I think that nicotine addiction is slightly more interesting psychologically than the bit in bold. My own view is that people who smoke nowadays (myself included) are people that find it difficult to regulate their emotions/mental health. Smoking gives that feeling (albeit perhaps an illusion) of having a means of control. Despite all the public health measures introduced in the UK smoking rates remain sky-high amongst people with severe mental health conditions like Schizophrenia/BPAD etc.

That fits with the OCD pattern of taking out the cigarette/vaping device, positioning it, lighting it and periodically moving it away from the lips and into them. A calming pattern? A kind of meditation by motion?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


I think there is some strong evidence in Trump's past behaviour, particularly with regard to James Comey and the winder context of Trump's request for loyalty.

It suggests than official has to strike the balance between loyalty (in whatever form that is) to Trump and the demands of the role. It would be interesting to know how those considerations are balanced.

Unusual is certainly a diplomatic way of framing it.

Most recent (and apparently ongoing) revelations have completely undone Comey's facade. Based on hard evidence, it turns out Trump was right about him. I'm not going to get off into that tangent, but you can read up on the documents released recently with apparently more still being released.

[CaptBeefheart]

Some of you may remember we had news of a new outbreak in Seoul last Friday. That's an interesting case since the government is having trouble tracking down everyone thought to have been exposed. So far, 75 new cases have been attributed to one gentleman visiting three gay nightclubs in Itaewon in the wee hours of May 1 (Itaewon used to be the ville for the U.S. Army, now very few GIs are stationed in Seoul). This has contributed to somewhat of a backlash against gays here, at least online (I haven't heard of any offline incidents), although to me the more interesting thing is to be allowed to reopen, all nightclubs were required to get the names and phone numbers of all customers upon entry, and the government found that over half the phone numbers from those three clubs were bogus.

So far they've tested fewer than half the people with potential exposure. Since there can be a stigma for being gay, it's understandable people would not provide their info when it could be seen by The Man (the original carrier said he was not gay, but just curious). Here's a story on it: PM warns of strong steps against club visitors over non-cooperation in virus testing

One of the things they've been touting here is the ability to contact trace everyone within ten minutes by means of phone location, CCTV footage and credit card transactions. So my big question is: Why are they so reliant on the guest books? Just figure out everyone who used a credit card at the clubs and whose phone spent some time in the vicinity.

I'm going to try to sic one of my journo buddies on that one. Maybe the Prime Minister will host a presser for the foreign scribblers this week.

Cheers,
CB

[Cap Mandrake]

3 clubs in a few hours? That is pretty damned curious.[:)]

They should start with that boy band. Find out where they were.

[CaptBeefheart]

Heh. He spent about 40 minutes in each club and they are not far apart (this isn't LA). The funny thing is, the most famous club on the list, The King Club, was a hangout of mine when I first arrived in this country in the early 90s. Let's just say it featured a target-rich environment. It was also not boring. One of the bouncers (who was not big, but had a reputation as being a martial arts god) once saw a group of SEALs doing something objectionable and he made the mistake of trying to do something about it. Next thing you know he was thrown horizontally like Superman over the bar. Imagine my surprise last week when I found out it had started catering to a wholly different clientele about two years ago.

Cheers,
CB

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Take the Shutdown Skeptics Seriously

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ly/611419/

That is the kind of balanced view I would hope for in the dialogue. Issues with both. Make sure to understand costs of staying closed.

It didn’t have much evidence for some claims unfortunately. Being in education I can state clearly that what is not usually considered is that kids are still learning. On top of that they’re learning, perhaps for the first time in their lives, the true value of school, education, social connectiveness and the decreased value of video games and social media.

I know this from direct experience. They’re desperate to get back in. Learn. Be in a classroom. See their friends. Get off of their laptops.

All the while though teachers are teaching. Students are also learning that there are some important decisions going on in cultures that directly affect their lives. Difficulty and awareness of others in a society are not always bad for them. They’re also all noticing nature. The change of seasons a nd the value of family time and exercise.

If they miss a few dates, don’t get to study as many equations, need to refresh themselves next year on the periodic table. I think that’s okay. As long as this doesn’t go on for many many months, it could be a defining moment for many to value their lives, family, friends and education more than before.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


I think there is some strong evidence in Trump's past behaviour, particularly with regard to James Comey and the winder context of Trump's request for loyalty.

It suggests than official has to strike the balance between loyalty (in whatever form that is) to Trump and the demands of the role. It would be interesting to know how those considerations are balanced.

Unusual is certainly a diplomatic way of framing it.

Most recent (and apparently ongoing) revelations have completely undone Comey's facade. Based on hard evidence, it turns out Trump was right about him. I'm not going to get off into that tangent, but you can read up on the documents released recently with apparently more still being released.

Care to share links?

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Just thinking about the public health vs public freedom angle.

The NHS estimates smoking-related deaths at 78,000pa in the UK. Cancer Research UK have it at 115,000pa.

If you assume a 20% 'hardcore' who would continue smoking whatever the legal status you could suggest that we could save 60-90 thousand deaths a year by banning smoking.

The tax take from smoking products is c.£10 billion - a seemingly massive number in isolation but only c.1-2% of the overall UK tax revenue. Certainly less than what has been spent so far in the economic measures introduced to mitigate against the effects of lockdown.

I don't think it is a massive leap to suggest that in the UK we already accept a level of premature deaths equivalent to what we are seeing from Covid-19 in the name of public freedom to smoke.

[edit - the counterpoint would be that the people dying in the UK from smoking related diseases are to a large extent those that were smoking heavily through the 70s/80s and never stopped. Anecdotally my dad was smoking 20-30 a day in the office in the late 70s/early 80s. The world is very different now - I'd expect the current rates of smoking related deaths to drop significantly in the next 20 years - at least in the West]

As an ex-smoker, an outright ban is quite heavy handed (but something I'd welcome for the health benefits).

Hike the taxes on tobacco and you just punish poorer people while those well off are more able to bear the added cost.

The legal restrictions around where you can smoke have been massively helpful in cutting the prevalence of smoking, but don't quite get at the key problem - people smoking large quantities at home (even worse when around children).

I think the trend of social engineering around smoking (for want of a better phrase) has been quite successful, but I think there's more work to be done when there is a much healthier way to address the physiological aspect of smoking (in the form of nicotine patches/gum).

As for the c. £10 billion, what is the cost of the 1.2 million people with COPD (of which smoking is the primary cause) on the NHS currently?

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy



My dad and mom were heavy smokers and I blame it as one of the factors for my mom dying at 62 from a heart attack (she was very slim, so obesity was not a factor). My dad had a minor heart attack and quit smoking soon after, living another thirty years.

In Britain and Canada, the calculations about tobacco tax revenue vs health costs borne by the taxpayers in general shows that it would be better to ban smoking, but social customs are not easily banned so they were eased out by making it more difficult to smoke everywhere. For the same reasons, drinking alcohol leads to more total health costs than the revenues from taxes, but social customs and restaurant/bar survival depend on alcohol so it is partly controlled rather than banned. Vaping was invented to get around the smoking restrictions but the chemicals being used have been proven to cause lung damage too.

As with many things, moderate alcohol use is largely beneficial to our overall well being (including social relationships in that), but binging and addictive drinking are a problem. I see no benefits from smoking or vaping, except to support a habit of putting something in our mouths.

I think that nicotine addiction is slightly more interesting psychologically than the bit in bold. My own view is that people who smoke nowadays (myself included) are people that find it difficult to regulate their emotions/mental health. Smoking gives that feeling (albeit perhaps an illusion) of having a means of control. Despite all the public health measures introduced in the UK smoking rates remain sky-high amongst people with severe mental health conditions like Schizophrenia/BPAD etc.

Used to smoke, quit about 3/4 years ago. Don't think I fit here, I just enjoyed the alertness that smoking brought.

What you say about smoking in people with mental illness is true, however.

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Take the Shutdown Skeptics Seriously

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ly/611419/

That is the kind of balanced view I would hope for in the dialogue. Issues with both. Make sure to understand costs of staying closed.

It didn’t have much evidence for some claims unfortunately. Being in education I can state clearly that what is not usually considered is that kids are still learning. On top of that they’re learning, perhaps for the first time in their lives, the true value of school, education, social connectiveness and the decreased value of video games and social media.

I know this from direct experience. They’re desperate to get back in. Learn. Be in a classroom. See their friends. Get off of their laptops.

All the while though teachers are teaching. Students are also learning that there are some important decisions going on in cultures that directly affect their lives. Difficulty and awareness of others in a society are not always bad for them. They’re also all noticing nature. The change of seasons a nd the value of family time and exercise.

If they miss a few dates, don’t get to study as many equations, need to refresh themselves next year on the periodic table. I think that’s okay. As long as this doesn’t go on for many many months, it could be a defining moment for many to value their lives, family, friends and education more than before.

I am very nervous from conversations I have had that some folks in education think that lots more laptop/remote learning can replace classroom time in the future. I already feel social and communication skills are slipping badly. Stick them on laptops more and they may never speak to another human. OK, a bit of hyperbole there, but I agree they need to be in a classroom.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Take the Shutdown Skeptics Seriously

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ly/611419/

That is the kind of balanced view I would hope for in the dialogue. Issues with both. Make sure to understand costs of staying closed.

It didn’t have much evidence for some claims unfortunately. Being in education I can state clearly that what is not usually considered is that kids are still learning. On top of that they’re learning, perhaps for the first time in their lives, the true value of school, education, social connectiveness and the decreased value of video games and social media.

I know this from direct experience. They’re desperate to get back in. Learn. Be in a classroom. See their friends. Get off of their laptops.

All the while though teachers are teaching. Students are also learning that there are some important decisions going on in cultures that directly affect their lives. Difficulty and awareness of others in a society are not always bad for them. They’re also all noticing nature. The change of seasons a nd the value of family time and exercise.

If they miss a few dates, don’t get to study as many equations, need to refresh themselves next year on the periodic table. I think that’s okay. As long as this doesn’t go on for many many months, it could be a defining moment for many to value their lives, family, friends and education more than before.

I am very nervous from conversations I have had that some folks in education think that lots more laptop/remote learning can replace classroom time in the future. I already feel social and communication skills are slipping badly. Stick them on laptops more and they may never speak to another human. OK, a bit of hyperbole there, but I agree they need to be in a classroom.

As far as I can tell this is helping them all to realize that less screen time is a good thing and they miss people.

Education won’t go the digital route. Collaboration and team skillls are so important for future work this won’t limit the focus on those things. Teachers don’t need to fear for their jobs

[Lowpe]

Hey, M-M, would it shock you to know there was widespread bipartisan support for firing Comey, that is until he was actually fired.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/op ... story.html

Hillary Clinton was actually ecstatic when he was fired. I recall her saying in interviews she would have fired Comey if elected.

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary ... ort-2019-5

The FBI is a hideously challenged organisation. The FBI labs, Whitey Bolger, Senator Stevens, and Congressman Weldon cases are a few that standout in recent memory and call in to question the legitimacy of other political office holders prosecutions like Fattah, Rostenkowski, etc.

The Obama IG, studied randomly 30 FISA applications for warrants and found serious problems with 27 or 29 of the 30. You can research it, I grow tired of doing work for you. [;)]This is basically a secret spying organisation. Heck the FBI agents lied to the court. Evidence strongly suggests they destroyed and withheld exculpatory evidence, altered documents, threatened spurious prosecutions, and crafted plea deals to hide their coercive acts to get the plea deal, and worse.

It is very troublesome what the FBI has gotten away with...Senator Schumer has said publicly you can't cross them because they have a million and one ways of getting back at you.

It is a shame they get such great propaganda in Hollywood. What they have done to both Political Parties and the American People is a crying shame.

You almost never ever should speak to an FBI agent without a lawyer present about anything. The lawyer will want to record the interview for accuracy, and the FBI refuse to be recorded.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Take the Shutdown Skeptics Seriously

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ly/611419/

It didn’t have much evidence for some claims unfortunately.

I think that is because we are in uncharted waters. Here is an article about the surge of suicides attributed to the 2008 recession.

More Than 10,000 Suicides Tied To Economic Crisis, Study Says

https://www.forbes.com/sites/melaniehai ... 544c0e7ae2

I actually have known a few people that have committed suicide because of business failure. Contrary to popular belief, suicide doesn't void life insurance claims if you have had the life insurance for more than a couple of years. These poor people felt they were worth more dead than alive.

[Cap Mandrake]

M-M

WSJ story behind paywall of the FBI top brass plotting to entrap Flynn AFTER the original investigators determined the investigation of Flynn should be ended for lack of evidence. Comey is at the meeting. Comey admitted to scheduling the meeting with Flynn (who is not a lawyer) while purposely NOT calling WH counsel to notify. They duped Flynn into thinking he was meeting to coordinate future activities with the incoming WH. There are DOJ rules against "perjury traps" for good reasons. The notes from the FBI planning meeting are chilling.

The DOJ just asked a judge to toss out the case against Flynn https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-vindic ... 1588893542

[MakeeLearn]

South Korea Records Spike In New Coronavirus Cases After Nightclub Outbreak
May 10, 2020

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... b-outbreak


"South Korea reported 34 new coronavirus infections Sunday, its highest daily tally in about a month, following an outbreak tied to several nightclubs and bars.

Korean health officials said that 24 of the new cases originate from Seoul's Itaewon neighborhood. Authorities had recently identified a 29-year-old man who tested positive for the virus after visiting five nightclubs and bars in the commercial district.

Authorities believe as many as 1,500 people were in attendance during the time the man said he visited those clubs over the weekend of May 1."

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

<snip my edits>

Los Angeles has been passing bond measures to raise property and sales taxes and lavishing spending on the homeless. They have burned through quite a large reserve. California is ALREADY borrowing money from DC to pay unemployment costs after budgeting enough reserves for 18 months of standard recession job losses. It's all gone already.

All of this borrowing and reserve spending means leaner times ahead. <snip my edits>

Sorry to carry forward an old thread.

Economics:

Yes this is the real unspoken issue surrounding what comes next.

Forget "reopening". That is chimera. It will happen "eventually".

It is not simply the Governmental Borrowing. Think also of all the "Governmental Debt instruments / bonds" sitting on the Balance Sheet of Central Banks / Federal Reserves - as they pursued Quantitative Easing. The banker of the government buying Government debt.

Realistically there are only three options

1) Austerity.

Some nations may choose this route. Ireland and Iceland did for example following 2008/2009. There is a significant social cost and it has not been tried on a G8 level economy to the same degree.

New Zealand / Canada / Australia all fiddled with Austerity in the 1990s but not full blown Austerity.

2) Increased Taxes

Significantly increased taxes

3) Print Money

Deflationary (money decreasing in value) - potentially rampant inflation i.e. the anecdotal $30.00 loaf of bread as money looses value.

I doubt the political will exists to adopt a single course of measure in most large economies.

However the combination of all three will be fraught with hard political choices. They will bear economic and social costs to all G8 nations.

This sadly may stratify politics further as opposed to calm rationale negotiation trying to find the right balance.

Harder times indeed for perhaps a generation.

Perhaps the millennial generation will step to the fore. I hope so. (Really) [8D]

There is already reasonably strong anecdotal evidence that this generation is (i) less indebted than those before and less willing to take on personal debt (ii) more savy in their investment discipline - less prone to panic although their investment horizon is obviously longer.

[MakeeLearn]

Cuomo alerts states to mystery coronavirus illness after three children die


All three children in New York showed signs of blood vessel inflammation, and also tested positive for coronavirus

10 May 2020


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ildren-die



"Instead of respiratory problems normally associated with Covid-19, the children are experiencing inflammation of blood vessels or the heart. Their symptoms are similar to toxic-shock syndrome and Kawasaki disease, an illness with no known cause that mainly affects children under five."

[MakeeLearn]

New coronavirus clusters show risks of second wave as protests flare
May 10, 2020

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/10/c ... -clusters/


"New coronavirus clusters show risks of second wave as protests flare "


"BERLIN — A family in China, nightclubs in South Korea and a slaughterhouse in Germany: New clusters of coronavirus infections are igniting concerns about a second wave even as calls grow in some countries to relax restrictions even further.

In Germany, where thousands have protested remaining restrictions in recent days, health officials say the number of people each confirmed coronavirus patient infects rose above 1 again, reflecting a renewed increase in cases. The number must be below 1 for outbreaks to decline.

Health officials worldwide are watching to see just how much infection rates rise in a second wave as nations and states emerge from varying degrees of lockdown."

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

<snip my edits>

Los Angeles has been passing bond measures to raise property and sales taxes and lavishing spending on the homeless. They have burned through quite a large reserve. California is ALREADY borrowing money from DC to pay unemployment costs after budgeting enough reserves for 18 months of standard recession job losses. It's all gone already.

All of this borrowing and reserve spending means leaner times ahead. <snip my edits>

Sorry to carry forward an old thread.

Economics:

Yes this is the real unspoken issue surrounding what comes next.

Forget "reopening". That is chimera. It will happen "eventually".

It is not simply the Governmental Borrowing. Think also of all the "Governmental Debt instruments / bonds" sitting on the Balance Sheet of Central Banks / Federal Reserves - as they pursued Quantitative Easing. The banker of the government buying Government debt.

Realistically there are only three options

1) Austerity.

Some nations may choose this route. Ireland and Iceland did for example following 2008/2009. There is a significant social cost and it has not been tried on a G8 level economy to the same degree.

New Zealand / Canada / Australia all fiddled with Austerity in the 1990s but not full blown Austerity.

2) Increased Taxes

Significantly increased taxes

3) Print Money

Deflationary (money decreasing in value) - potentially rampant inflation i.e. the anecdotal $30.00 loaf of bread as money looses value.
Inflationary, not deflationary. More money chasing the same number or reduced number of goods is inflationary. Deflationary is when the money supply is reduced.

I doubt the political will exists to adopt a single course of measure in most large economies.

However the combination of all three will be fraught with hard political choices. They will bear economic and social costs to all G8 nations.

This sadly may stratify politics further as opposed to calm rationale negotiation trying to find the right balance.

Harder times indeed for perhaps a generation.

Perhaps the millennial generation will step to the fore. I hope so. (Really) [8D]

There is already reasonably strong anecdotal evidence that this generation is (i) less indebted than those before and less willing to take on personal debt (ii) more savy in their investment discipline - less prone to panic although their investment horizon is obviously longer.

I consider planned inflation to be a tax on poor people since they are least able to afford the higher prices. But if wages don't go up at the same rate as inflation, the middle class disappears.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

M-M

WSJ story behind paywall of the FBI top brass plotting to entrap Flynn AFTER the original investigators determined the investigation of Flynn should be ended for lack of evidence. Comey is at the meeting. Comey admitted to scheduling the meeting with Flynn (who is not a lawyer) while purposely NOT calling WH counsel to notify. They duped Flynn into thinking he was meeting to coordinate future activities with the incoming WH. There are DOJ rules against "perjury traps" for good reasons. The notes from the FBI planning meeting are chilling.

The DOJ just asked a judge to toss out the case against Flynn https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-vindic ... 1588893542

I think that some of those people need an education about the 5th amendment to the US Constitution and Miranda warnings and such things. I think that a judge and a jury should be able to educate them.

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

<snip my edits>

Los Angeles has been passing bond measures to raise property and sales taxes and lavishing spending on the homeless. They have burned through quite a large reserve. California is ALREADY borrowing money from DC to pay unemployment costs after budgeting enough reserves for 18 months of standard recession job losses. It's all gone already.

All of this borrowing and reserve spending means leaner times ahead. <snip my edits>

Sorry to carry forward an old thread.

Economics:

Yes this is the real unspoken issue surrounding what comes next.

Forget "reopening". That is chimera. It will happen "eventually".

It is not simply the Governmental Borrowing. Think also of all the "Governmental Debt instruments / bonds" sitting on the Balance Sheet of Central Banks / Federal Reserves - as they pursued Quantitative Easing. The banker of the government buying Government debt.

Realistically there are only three options

1) Austerity.

Some nations may choose this route. Ireland and Iceland did for example following 2008/2009. There is a significant social cost and it has not been tried on a G8 level economy to the same degree.

New Zealand / Canada / Australia all fiddled with Austerity in the 1990s but not full blown Austerity.

2) Increased Taxes

Significantly increased taxes

3) Print Money

Deflationary (money decreasing in value) - potentially rampant inflation i.e. the anecdotal $30.00 loaf of bread as money looses value.

I doubt the political will exists to adopt a single course of measure in most large economies.

However the combination of all three will be fraught with hard political choices. They will bear economic and social costs to all G8 nations.

This sadly may stratify politics further as opposed to calm rationale negotiation trying to find the right balance.

Harder times indeed for perhaps a generation.

Perhaps the millennial generation will step to the fore. I hope so. (Really) [8D]

There is already reasonably strong anecdotal evidence that this generation is (i) less indebted than those before and less willing to take on personal debt (ii) more savy in their investment discipline - less prone to panic although their investment horizon is obviously longer.

I'm glad Iceland and Ireland have chosen austerity before. I think it is the right answer. Higher taxes without fully functioning economies....not likely to work, and will further escalate the political crud we have going on here in the States.

I still am really worried about poorer folks and small business owners. And folks with other issues. We need some leadership here and I don't really see much.

[Lowpe]

For those still interested in the media bias:

NBC admits Chuck Todd's 'Meet the Press' deceptively edited Barr remarks on Flynn

https://www.foxnews.com/media/chuck-tod ... flynn-edit

I would be curious to see how Obvert's media tracking scores would report on this. The problem has always been you can have 100% accurate reporting that is 100% wrong. Lies of commission are a powerful thing.