eskuche vs mmoarrke (12.03+)

[eskuche]

Hi everyone, this AAR is written written with three goals in mind: more exploration of 12.03+ mechanics, a focus on the Axis air war and decisions involving it, and of course interesting directions that this game takes. I am a newer player, so to make reading this AAR more interesting, I'll be positing strategic situations (though ~5 turns behind).

Given early turns spacing and checkerboard defense my opponent is at least an intermediate player. It will take quite a few more turns to determine which parts of the war Soviet high command is adept at.

Game settings: total FoW, full blizzard, no house rules lacking further discussion.

[eskuche]

Turn 1 North and Center

Openings are discussed ad nauseum elsewhere. I have made aggressive AGN and AGC plays with ZOC locks on Daugavpils airborne and on Minsk. Note wide berths on pocketed units. I think a common error here is clearing hexes both towards and away from pocketed units. The pockets will naturally shrink, so you need only claim hexes on the rescuers' side unless you plan on being within social distancing limits of Russian units. [:D] The philosophy I am following here is infantry advance ASAP, with minimal rear clearing activies.

I present Stuka locations for maximal clearing of airbases. The principle used here is that Stuka gruppes will eliminate 2-3 airbases worth of planes within 11 hexes (this can actually be improved to 17 hexes using other bases as staging, but, as all in-range bases were completed decimated, this probably isn't necessary) so finding a center of gravity is key. I referred to
Telemecus's AAR for targets on post 17. Here I present an example of offensive placement.

Administrative considerations
• Morale farming is accomplished on non-withdrawing airgroups towards your rear. Withdrawing airgroups, such as JG 53, which will be prime targets for sitting still while getting their airframes swapped in the coming turns, are moved forward to guard bomber bases on low mission radius.
• In 1.12, the supply system changed whereby airbases no longer stock supplies and fuel at the beginning of the turn based on what airgroups are present. They draw instead on-the-fly (heh), though it's unclear whether distance efficiency impacts this. For now, the only considerations I am taking into account with regards to future airbase placement are 1) How far did the airbase move -> how much fatigue does air support have -> can they repair/replace enough damaged aircraft? and 2) can there be escorted bomber attacks in my airfields? More on this later when it matters more. The pysche of most Soviet players, I suspect, is to dump all of the trash into the national reserve turn 1 and sort it out later. You are most likely safe on turn 1. NB I was not, as I actually had my Ju 52/m airbase in the South displaced! The Rumanian airbase could have been displaced as well if my opponent had reconed there.
• In general, I like command efficiency. There is the standard reallocation of divisions from overloaded armies and corps (especially center). I also placed I believe 15 airbases under Luftflotte 2 (Kesselring, air rating 8) and Fliegerkorps VIII (Richthofen, air rating 8). This ensures 80-88% air ratings (not sure about admin, which apparently is important for fixing damaged planes) and the most airframes in the sky. This is most important for level bomber groups on turn 1 if one wanted to push the capabilities further.
• Which airbase to move first? This one is tricky. I usually get started by transferring airgroups from German airbases in Rumania to Rumania airbases, moving the German airbases, and transferring to them from AGS proper. You want to avoid locking in your forward-most airbases so that they can move to advance positions. You MUST leave at least one MP to have airgroups flying off a base (this is probably an unintended bug regarding the linked airbase MP/airgroup miles flown.)

[Telemecus]

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[eskuche]

Turn 1 south
I go for a much more conservative opening here, without activating the Rumanian front but hermetically seal the pockets. In my view, here are the pros and cons of such a move:
• You clear the Lvov pocket proper much faster and advance quicker
• You move FIRST turn three. Depending on where your armor is, you may actually end up pocketing more
• No leaks [;)]

• You give up the Soviet movement malus on Turn 1 in Rumania
• No rubber banding your panzer fuel off the south unless you make a connection

This move does not, however, preclude air activity in the south. Rumanian bombers apparently have been nerfed recently, so they can barely take out Odessa airbases. Dotted lines in Rumania indicate where the airbase has to be to receive the Stuka. Someone will probably yell at me for moving the airbase with planes on it, but it's unavoidable here. Transfer radius is three times aircraft range. Interestingly, Stukas have ~350 miles, or 11 hexes, for ATTACKS, but 1050, or 35 hexes, for transfers, due to rounding.

[eskuche]

And finally, turn 1 air losses. My record was 6250, but in this game I prioritized yellow boxes over more I-15/16 series in the northern front near Leningrad.

[Kilo59]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

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[redrum68]

Subscribed!

In regards to the "No leaks" Lvov pocket, could it be broken on the northeast side like this? This is assuming that little pocket where the mot is coming from can be broken as well.

[eskuche]

There's a motorized division to the northeast of the upper pocket. It blocks a swamp rifle divisions from making contact.

[eskuche]

Here is the result of 560 observation flights at the beginning of turn 2. I invite discussion of analysis of the opponent and suggested overall strategy.

[eskuche]

Opponent Analysis
• Pskov is held strongly, and motor will be highly unlikely to penetrate. I will claim as much empty land as possible and keep back as many motor to fuel as possible.
• Decent amount of screening forces in front of Vitebsk-Mogilev, with likely more units hidden from scouting. Opponent is not afraid to possibly sacrifice Soviet motorized units. Bad play if fully strengthened units, okay play if these are depleted anyway.
• In the South, like the north, he has opted for a strong (albeit single line) defense, with most of the armor unguarded. Probably a mistake, given I opted for the 1 and 2/3 panzer group opening in the south. Perfect opportunity to wipe out some of the strong starting mech corps. Lots of roadbump fortified zones left in place. I personally have kept a lot of these not disbanded as important roadbumps on turn 2. It's about 4000 armament points, or 3-7% of a turn for each. Hard tradeoff.

Considerations
• I took the accelerated combined Baltic rail repair. This precludes driving to Mogilev-Gomel for the time being, so I will make posthaste for the landbridge.
• Depending on how long my opponent stays, I can assault Pskov directly or through the soft underbelly.
• I will be very late on Rumanian rail repair, so I will see if there is an opening for Kiev. If not, I will drive heavily towards Odessa and the Ukraine.
• Rumanian border is still frozen, so wait above freeze line, possibly in range with gas, to drive all the way down turn 3.

[eskuche]

The plan.

[king171717]

sub!!

Looking forward to reading this

[56ajax]

+ 1

[joelmar]

+1 Subscribed too!

Great stuff!

This all has an air of déjà-vu! But you didn't goof with the Riga and Byalistok pockets like I did and your opponent's first moves are different. But it will be interesting to follow the parallel developement of both games.

[redrum68]

Only 560 recon... disappointing...

Overall, looks like a very sound plan. A few thoughts:

AGN - While hard to tell for certain without scouting to see the Pskov Soviet defender CVs, I think you could probably bust through somewhere along the river and once you have just 1 panzer/mot division across the river, the Soviets pretty much have to retreat away from Pskov or risk being pocketed. But converting territory in front of Pskov for the infantry should probably be priority #1 but checking to see if you can thrust across the river is probably worth it and even if you can't this turn then setting it up so you can turn 3 is probably doable.

AGS - I like your plan and agree the Soviets are too far forward. If you can pocket those in front of Kiev and set up for a drive southeast for turn 3, it should put you in a great position. I would make sure to recon the woods near Zhitomir a lot so you don't get any surprises trying to close the pocket.

Air - It would be great to hear your thoughts around where the soviet air force is and how you plan to utilize the Axis air forces.

[eskuche]

ORIGINAL: redrum68
AGN - While hard to tell for certain without scouting to see the Pskov Soviet defender CVs, I think you could probably bust through somewhere along the river and once you have just 1 panzer/mot division across the river, the Soviets pretty much have to retreat away from Pskov or risk being pocketed. But converting territory in front of Pskov for the infantry should probably be priority #1 but checking to see if you can thrust across the river is probably worth it and even if you can't this turn then setting it up so you can turn 3 is probably doable.

The problem with barely getting over is that you're supply strapped for 1-2 more turns. A canny Russian will still hold and/or beat back your bridgehead unless you get over 3-4 divisions, IMHO.

Air - It would be great to hear your thoughts around where the soviet air force is and how you plan to utilize the Axis air forces.

Coming soon! Not quite sure of how I'm going to organize. The thinking is 3-4 turns of a front at a time, then a tease for the next section. Air may come before or in between those sections. This allows the reader to actually intake chunks of a front rather than having to recalibrate every read. Game is on turn 11, will keep 3-4 turns behind.

[eskuche]

Thanks for the enthusiasm, all [:)]. Want to try to make this as visually and organizationally appealing as possible and not just a stock runthrough of the game. There is a very interesting Master Plan that takes effect before mud.

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: eskuche

Thanks for the enthusiasm, all [:)]. Want to try to make this as visually and organizationally appealing as possible and not just a stock runthrough of the game. There is a very interesting Master Plan that takes effect before mud.

Master Plan? Like the Dalek Master Plan (that didn't go so well).

[eskuche]

Sorry all, will start writing again with a huge backlog of turns to go (game currently turn 16).

Turn 2 South
*Note that I didn't have good pre-move maps for early turns to I reloaded turn beginning and ran a bunch of recon.

Lvov pocket holds. A strong line at Stalin line forts along with dispersed defense along the Dnestr. Soviets have left plenty of fortified zones in place without saving their guns. They'll prove a slight impediment to armor thrusts. Because we've already sunk resources into not unfreezing Rumania, it bodes well to instead wait until turn 3 to hold the initiative. Several of the armor near Zhitomir is quite high quality, so we decide to try to bag then, passing between rivers and near the swamp to envelope. Freeze line below Proskurov is not crossed. Note some armor is left with fuel for turn 3 sweep south.

[eskuche]

Turn 3 South

Zhitomir pocket holds, enemy retreats to Kiev. A dispersed defense awaits along the western Ukraine, making any pockets unlikely, so the next few turns will be dedicated to grabbing land to make way for 6th Army and, slowly, Rumanian troops. Note that I mistakenly greeded for more pocketed units along rail construction -- in retrospect a horrible decision that will slow down the southern advance.

Wiking destroys the rail line near Odessa, allowing eventual cleanup of an additional ~10 divisions, including cavalry and tank divisions. The eastern prong did not manage to ZoC lock a mechanized corps along the Bug.