OT: Corona virus

[JohnDillworth]

I once lost 50 pounds in 5 weeks and was water bloated at the end of that time. Tell your co-worker to take it easy on the physical therapy part. Don't overdo it as it can make some things worse. A person loses 80 percent of their fine motor control when the are bedridden for one week. That is why it is so hard to walk and the risk of falls is higher. The fall is not the problem, it is the sudden stop at the end of it. It is better to do a lot of short exercise periods rather than an intense workout.

Thanks, he wasn't a big guy before this. He will work from home for a long time. Better I can pick his brain. It will be a long recovery. We got a bunch over in the 911 call center that we will eventually have a memorial service for so count your blessings I suppose

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I once lost 50 pounds in 5 weeks and was water bloated at the end of that time. Tell your co-worker to take it easy on the physical therapy part. Don't overdo it as it can make some things worse. A person loses 80 percent of their fine motor control when the are bedridden for one week. That is why it is so hard to walk and the risk of falls is higher. The fall is not the problem, it is the sudden stop at the end of it. It is better to do a lot of short exercise periods rather than an intense workout.

Thanks, he wasn't a big guy before this. He will work from home for a long time. Better I can pick his brain. It will be a long recovery. We got a bunch over in the 911 call center that we will eventually have a memorial service for so count your blessings I suppose

Every day that I am on this side of the grass, I count my blessings.

[Lowpe]

Madison County officials vote to re-open, defying Pritzker's orders

https://www.kmov.com/news/madison-count ... 68fed.html

Illinois county

[Lowpe]

Pennsylvania just gets stranger and stranger.

Adding fuel to the fire was the was admission that Health Secretary Levine removed her mother from a personal care home while not allowing the same priviledge to every other Pennsylvanian, as reported by State Representative Seth Grove of York County. Remember folks, this is the same Secretary Levine who sentenced hundreds of elderly Pennsylvanians to death by forcing the admission of Covid19 patients to nursing homes. On Monday morning, Pennsylvania State Senator Doug Mastriano called for the removal of Secretary of Health Dr. Levine, who he says has committed medical malpractice in mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pennsylvania just gets stranger and stranger.

Adding fuel to the fire was the was admission that Health Secretary Levine removed her mother from a personal care home while not allowing the same priviledge to every other Pennsylvanian, as reported by State Representative Seth Grove of York County. Remember folks, this is the same Secretary Levine who sentenced hundreds of elderly Pennsylvanians to death by forcing the admission of Covid19 patients to nursing homes. On Monday morning, Pennsylvania State Senator Doug Mastriano called for the removal of Secretary of Health Dr. Levine, who he says has committed medical malpractice in mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.

That sounds good to me but I don't live there.

I wonder about manslaughter charges . . .

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Lab-grown meat has a lot of benefits all over the economy, if/when we get there, particularly for allocation of resources on farms.

I don't believe for a second that could be economically done. IT'S A TRAP! It's not magic. You have to have a substrate. Where are the amino acids going to come from? You would have to have a high quality protein source. It's not practical to synthesize 20 amino acids de novo and just throw them in a big pot. Suppose you get pure amino acids in the right ratios and now you want myocytes to reproduce infinitely without dying. You know what that is? Meat cancer, that's what.

The minute you close the last ranch the factory suddenly burns down. [:D]

It would, because we as a species are basically Arthur Dent.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Links to separate sites provided in recent days by Lowpe and John Dillworth both have Georgia Ro rate at less than 1 (one was at 0.92, the other at 0.84, as of this a.m.). Every statistical category that I've seen has been trending down for weeks. Significantly, on the 10th the IHME projection for mortality dropped from 4,900 to 3,500.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

IHME's updated US mortality projection is 137k by August 4, if that's what you're looking for (I may not be comprehending the point you're making).

Georgia may be the bellwether for all this. We began gradually easing countermeasures 18 days ago. So far, so good. From my seat it seems like the easing wasn't premature. I gather from Chickenboy's post a few hours back that he feels the same about Texas. My daughter and son-in-law feel the same about Tennessee. But there is no doubt there are jurisdictions where easing wouldn't be prudent right now.

Yes, that's the number I was looking at.

The state-by-state transmission number over on rt.live appears to be good data, although the confidence interval for recent dates for Texas and Georgia includes values higher than 1.0 (it looks like the data is refined over time as well and is about 7-days delayed).

rt.live is what Lowpe linked. It has Georgia at 0.85 estimated on May 5th, but I stand by my confidence interval statement.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is weird. IHME apparently just issued yet another revision for mortality in Georgia. On Saturday the projection was 4,900. Last night, it was 3,500. This afternoon it's 2,000.

And no longer are we projected to have a seemingly interminable "table" on the chart. We're projected to drop each day, so that we're on the downside of the bell curve.

US projections revised again, too (up to 147k).

IHME is revising so often and so sharply that there may be serious doubts about its utility.

I actually find sharp revisions to be more useful than a series of similar results because it tells you more about the influencing factors and how much/whether they really matter.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is this discussion about synthetic meat, actually created/grown/cultured in a lab? That's not going to fly nearly anywhere in the US.

Completely disagree. Not everybody has to switch for lab-grown meat to be a thing that is available at the store.

From 2018, 40% of Americans said they'd try it: https://www.fooddive.com/news/survey-40 ... at/523402/. If it is comparable to animal-grown meat in quality, and cheaper? Most people vote with their wallets... If it's comparable and a bit more expensive? Many fewer people would switch over, but some would because of the externalities and having the economic power to choose the cleaner method of production.

The headline on this one is a little misleading, implying that consumers in the US would not be willing to buy lab-grown or plant-based meat: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019 ... lant-based. It then proceeds to show the breakdowns, showing that only 23.6% of respondents would not be at all willing to buy lab-grown meat and that 25.3% of respondents would not be willing to buy plant-based meat. The real store in there is that 75% of respondents would be willing to buy it (and sure, that isn't the 90%+ that it is in India and China, but whatever - 75% to 25% is a big majority).

Lab-grown meat won't kill off the farming of livestock for slaughter, but it will impact it.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Anxiety From Reactions to Covid-19 Will Destroy At Least Seven Times More Years of Life Than Can Be Saved by Lockdowns

https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19 ... oyed_saved

Huh?

Compared to what, the baseline without the existence of COVID? That's a dumb comparison. It's not like COVID wouldn't exist if there weren't lockdowns (quite the opposite in fact).

This "article" sets off my BS alarms.

That is my thought too. I especially was concerned about the very difficult measurement to prove.

Although, I am also skeptical about the efficacy of lock-downs.

Depends on how you're measuring efficacy.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The problem with the masks and gloves (I work in spaces where other people touch stuff, I think gloves are as important as masks) is that is easy to get complacent. I’m super careful at work and don’t need the ppe at home so if I go out for a walk or errand I catch myself being a little sloppy. It is strange using cash. Went out for a rare does of fast food and handed the person at the drive in cash. I didn’t think anything of it until he handed me my change in cash. Money is a dirty thing. I always use cash but I suppose that is a habit that many of us will have to change. Not a big thing wearing a mask now but it gets hot and humid in the summer. Not going to be happy about this going forward

Following Australia's example, Canada switched to a mylar-based dollar because it is more durable, cheaper in the long run and isn't destroyed by being left in your pocket in the washing machine. So you can wash your paper and coin cash before tendering it to someone for your fast food, collect the change in a bag and wash it when you get home. Don't forget to put the stopper in the sink!

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

Had a venison fest a few days ago. The guy who sourced the venison has asked me about the travel patterns of the wild turkeys on my property....I suspect the 'wild turkey' fest is next......

Sounds like a "wet market". I suggest that dressing animal meat in the field should include precautions against catching anything they might be carrying - brucellosis, encephalitis, Lyme's disease, etc. Ungulate animals do not pass too many things to humans but birds might. They get around more than most.

[CaptBeefheart]

Homer Simpson: "Mmmmmmm, Soylent Green."

That club outbreak in Seoul from 12 days ago has resulted in a total of... wait for it... 119 new infections. Here's the story: Infections linked to Itaewon clubs 'soar' to 119 [my scare quotes]

Call me optimistic, but 119 infections out of 14,121 at-risk people being tested tells me the system here is working (although the clubs' customer logbooks had a lot of bogus phone numbers, they did end up using cell phone triangulation and credit card data to track down the rest of the club goers and people nearby). Most of you gents are facing much higher numbers of new cases in your regions. Nevertheless, the government here pushed back public school openings one week. If they are going to overreact every time one of these spikes happens Little Johnny won't be seeing the inside of a classroom anytime soon.

Shout out to Cap Mandrake for meritorious service in the front lines of this outbreak. Keep up the good work, sir.

And hopefully Obvert has some good news for us (apologies if I missed an announcement).

Cheers,
CB

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The problem with the masks and gloves (I work in spaces where other people touch stuff, I think gloves are as important as masks) is that is easy to get complacent. I’m super careful at work and don’t need the ppe at home so if I go out for a walk or errand I catch myself being a little sloppy. It is strange using cash. Went out for a rare does of fast food and handed the person at the drive in cash. I didn’t think anything of it until he handed me my change in cash. Money is a dirty thing. I always use cash but I suppose that is a habit that many of us will have to change. Not a big thing wearing a mask now but it gets hot and humid in the summer. Not going to be happy about this going forward

Following Australia's example, Canada switched to a mylar-based dollar because it is more durable, cheaper in the long run and isn't destroyed by being left in your pocket in the washing machine. So you can wash your paper and coin cash before tendering it to someone for your fast food, collect the change in a bag and wash it when you get home. Don't forget to put the stopper in the sink!

Following Australia's example, Canada switched to a mylar-based dollar because it is more durable, cheaper in the long run and isn't destroyed by being left in your pocket in the washing machine. So you can wash your paper and coin cash before tendering it to someone for your fast food, collect the change in a bag and wash it when you get home. Don't forget to put the stopper in the sink!

This was the first fast food I have eaten in at least a year. I've just always preferred cash for day to day stuff. Pay is direct deposit and I just take out a bit each week for coffee and incidentals. I pack my own breakfast and lunch partially because I'm cheap, partially because it's sometimes hard to find something healthy to buy. Once they started to post calorie counts (about the same time as my heart attack 14 years ago) healthy eating became a bit of a necessity. My wife and kids say I'm just cheap or moths come out of dads wallet or dad has Confederate money in his wallet. All these card or phone systems advertise as convenient but are actually slower than plain old cash. Seems kind of dumb to pay two or three dollars via a debit card. Guess I will change with the times

[JohnDillworth]

This is what I was afraid of. If you don't like the numbers, just don't count them. Lies, obstruction and the substitution of magical thinking in the place of scientific rigor. This is simply cruel and dangerous https://www.wvgazettemail.com/washingto ... fb2ff.html

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Homer Simpson: "Mmmmmmm, Soylent Green."

That club outbreak in Seoul from 12 days ago has resulted in a total of... wait for it... 119 new infections. Here's the story: Infections linked to Itaewon clubs 'soar' to 119 [my scare quotes]

Call me optimistic, but 119 infections out of 14,121 at-risk people being tested tells me the system here is working (although the clubs' customer logbooks had a lot of bogus phone numbers, they did end up using cell phone triangulation and credit card data to track down the rest of the club goers and people nearby). Most of you gents are facing much higher numbers of new cases in your regions. Nevertheless, the government here pushed back public school openings one week. If they are going to overreact every time one of these spikes happens Little Johnny won't be seeing the inside of a classroom anytime soon.

Shout out to Cap Mandrake for meritorious service in the front lines of this outbreak. Keep up the good work, sir.

And hopefully Obvert has some good news for us (apologies if I missed an announcement).

Cheers,
CB

Hey Capt, enjoy your on the spot reporting!

There have been quite a few articles here about how scary and potentially dangerous the tracing program is with regards to personal liberty by a certain segment of the population here.

Personally, I find it a little scary too, but also it is very impressive. A state county by me here near Philly has gone down the same route with a very thorough and fast contact tracing solution, and they seem to have had incredible success.

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: fcooke

Had a venison fest a few days ago. The guy who sourced the venison has asked me about the travel patterns of the wild turkeys on my property....I suspect the 'wild turkey' fest is next......

Sounds like a "wet market". I suggest that dressing animal meat in the field should include precautions against catching anything they might be carrying - brucellosis, encephalitis, Lyme's disease, etc. Ungulate animals do not pass too many things to humans but birds might. They get around more than most.

He's a safe guy - he brings it to a pro for prep. My sis in law had Lymes once. That is one nasty little bugger.

We have a couple of resident geese - they are off limits, even though they poop up the joint. But they have been here before we bought the place. The bass in the pond are in limits (and we have had many people come fish, all catch and release, during this thing - I think a good stress reliever, though they can take some home if they like.)

The resident bear is off limits, but the coyotes are on the hit list.

The dogs are off limit [:'(]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

This is what I was afraid of. If you don't like the numbers, just don't count them. Lies, obstruction and the substitution of magical thinking in the place of scientific rigor. This is simply cruel and dangerous https://www.wvgazettemail.com/washingto ... fb2ff.html

I have posted several articles and links concerning this, and I think we all need to question the numbers and science more.

I find it interesting that the English govt keeps their transmission rates secret. Or that there hasn't been a case of influenza in New York for the last six weeks. Or that models are kept secret and cannot be independently verified. Or that a doctor on the Presidential panel reportedly doesn't trust the numbers coming out of the CDC. Or that our Sec of Health can remove her loved ones from nursing homes, while ordering them statewide to take covid positive patients. Or the case you highlight above.

I feel very certain that it is politics and not medicine that is dictating the majority of the response to this virus. Unfortunately, that is how the world operates. If you are powerful enough you can pretty much write your own rules especially when the medicine is uncertain -- it can easily be shaped by special interests.

For example here is an interesting article from Africa, who knows where the truth is. Was it a health threat or failure to pay a bribe? Or something else?

Nigeria demolishes two hotels for breach of coronavirus lockdown rules: report

https://www.foxnews.com/world/nigeria-d ... les-report

[Lowpe]

More on Vitamin D, from Northwestern Univ.

Patients with severe deficiency are twice as likely to experience major complications

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 121353.htm

[MakeeLearn]

Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020
May 11, 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm


"During March 11–May 2, 2020, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported to DOHMH; of these deaths, 24,172 (95% confidence interval = 22,980–25,364) were found to be in excess of the seasonal expected baseline. Included in the 24,172 deaths were 13,831 (57%) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths and 5,048 (21%) probable COVID-19–associated deaths, leaving 5,293 (22%) excess deaths that were not identified as either laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths"



"The 5,293 excess deaths not identified as confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths might have been directly or indirectly attributable to the pandemic. The percentages of these excess deaths that occurred in persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 or resulted from indirect impacts of the pandemic are unknown and require further investigation."

[MakeeLearn]

Pennsylvania reports: average coronavirus death age 79; 67% happened in nursing homes
May 7, 2020


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy ... sing-homes


"Pennsylvania health officials says 79 is the average age for coronvirus-related deaths in the state and that nearly 68% of those deaths occurred in assisted-living facilities – in one of the first state-based reports to breaking down virus statistics by age demographics. "


"Beyond the finding about the average age, the letter also states the 67.9% of the 3,106 people who have so far died in Pennsylvania – or 2,108 people – were living in nursing, personal-care and assisted-living facilities. The number translates to the 67.9% of all virus-deaths in these types of settings."