OT: Corona virus

[JohnDillworth]

My family has switched over too. We opened up a separate petty cash debit card, with no more than a few hundred dollar balance (in case it gets hacked/stolen). The card actually pays 10 cents every time we use it to pay for a transaction in person -- encouraging us to use it for smaller transactions. It has reduced our cash transactions almost to 0.

The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK

Let me know how that works out for you. I am not brave enough to go there yet![:D]

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

My family has switched over too. We opened up a separate petty cash debit card, with no more than a few hundred dollar balance (in case it gets hacked/stolen). The card actually pays 10 cents every time we use it to pay for a transaction in person -- encouraging us to use it for smaller transactions. It has reduced our cash transactions almost to 0.

The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK

Hate debt as well. That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

[Canoerebel]

Loka, I took another look at that chart (https://rt.live/) with regard to your comment (in bold, below). It shows Georgia Ro below 1.0 (at .83) and the confidence interval (margin of error) doesn't reach 1.0, as best I can tell.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

IHME's updated US mortality projection is 137k by August 4, if that's what you're looking for (I may not be comprehending the point you're making).

Georgia may be the bellwether for all this. We began gradually easing countermeasures 18 days ago. So far, so good. From my seat it seems like the easing wasn't premature. I gather from Chickenboy's post a few hours back that he feels the same about Texas. My daughter and son-in-law feel the same about Tennessee. But there is no doubt there are jurisdictions where easing wouldn't be prudent right now.

Yes, that's the number I was looking at.

The state-by-state transmission number over on rt.live appears to be good data, although the confidence interval for recent dates for Texas and Georgia includes values higher than 1.0 (it looks like the data is refined over time as well and is about 7-days delayed).

[Canoerebel]

Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
My household has taken up baking like it is a competitive sport.

Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.

We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.

Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: fcooke
That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.

I think that the rationale for mortgage interest deduction on one's taxes has abated in the last three years. The standard deduction is usually higher for couples filing married (joint) than mortgage interest. Combined with SALT caps for high-tax states (e.g., New York, Mass, NJ, CA), this augurs against the value of property for tax deductibility more recently.

[witpqs]

JohnDillworth:

Hey John,

A short time back you posted a bit about a few states with an uptick, and I posted the Arizona COVID-19 death numbers from the State's web site which showed the opposite.

I might have discovered what is going on. AZ has a note explaining they recently updated COVID-19 death stats according to CDC guidelines and that might show an increase in deaths for a few days. They also noted the additional deaths counted have been put on the date of death (which seems proper), not the date they added them to the report.

That projection site which many of us have looked at, linked from Worldometer, appears to be showing the additional deaths on the days they were added. I surmise this because on days when the AZ site shows a handful of deaths the projection site is showing 20-ish to 40-ish.

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.

We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.

Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.

Computer equipment I think is a definite. anti-virus, anti-hacking SW once people figure out that evil actors out there are still evil. aircraft might be interesting. If commercial becomes even more of a pain in the tush than it already was, and you have the means, buy your own plane.

Office space in dense cities - likely going to have a hard time. Telco companies will make out well as demand for bandwidth increases. Which reminds me I need to call my cable company to get a better deal.

[Canoerebel]

The press and those medically and/or politically opposed to re-opening predicted surges in new cases and morality when shelter-in-place ended in some states. But the Ro rates remain level or close thereto, including: Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Mississippi, Kansas and Idaho (source: https://rt.live/). The rates in each of those states is below 1.0, meaning the pandemic continues to decline. It's possible that the wheels may come off here or there, but to this point sky-is-falling assertions have been wrong.

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.

We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.

Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/economy/ ... index.html

Uneven adjustments.

Very hard to predict.

Full disclaimer - I certainly have no crystal ball.

As above - Some food supply chains - for example - would have been geared for a percentage of restaurant sales. Restaurant sales have dried up. Some foods going to waste - sadly - others in high demand

I do wonder if "vacations" no longer mean "airplane getaways" and "cruise" - but are family camping trips in local states - so perhaps RVs will be in demand ? So Winnebago's ?

I would only caution using historic indicators and predictors ultimately because in the short term we cannot predict the changes in consumer behavior and "trends". Further if e-commerce will truly fully disrupt traditional Retail and Wholesale.

The 2008-9 Crisis caused some restructuring and changes but was not fundamentally a health crisis. It was an asset/debt bubble so to speak.

Will Health concerns change some patterns more fundementally?

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: fcooke
That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.

I think that the rationale for mortgage interest deduction on one's taxes has abated in the last three years. The standard deduction is usually higher for couples filing married (joint) than mortgage interest. Combined with SALT caps for high-tax states (e.g., New York, Mass, NJ, CA), this augurs against the value of property for tax deductibility more recently.

Fair enough. I was doing volunteer tax returns as part of the AARP program this year before we got shut down. The newer 'higher deduction' helps many people but the elimination of a bunch of legacy deductions hurts a few. All that said, if you can borrow at 3ish% there could be decent returns in other areas - not fixed income or annuities IMO. Real estate up here seems to be getting stronger as NYC folk are thinking they don't want to live in the petri dish.

The other thing I learned as a tax volunteer is that the tax code is even more screwed up than I thought beforehand.....

Charitable donations still work well.....so if you are so inclined you may want to give earlier this year - a bunch of those organizations are really hurting.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe




We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.

Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.

Computer equipment I think is a definite. anti-virus, anti-hacking SW once people figure out that evil actors out there are still evil. aircraft might be interesting. If commercial becomes even more of a pain in the tush than it already was, and you have the means, buy your own plane.

Office space in dense cities - likely going to have a hard time. Telco companies will make out well as demand for bandwidth increases. Which reminds me I need to call my cable company to get a better deal.

Amidst all the hustle and pandemic bustle, I'd almost forgotten about the nascent move to 5G networking. Ought to be some good hardware and REIT plays (e.g., AMT) in there.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: fcooke
That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.

I think that the rationale for mortgage interest deduction on one's taxes has abated in the last three years. The standard deduction is usually higher for couples filing married (joint) than mortgage interest. Combined with SALT caps for high-tax states (e.g., New York, Mass, NJ, CA), this augurs against the value of property for tax deductibility more recently.

Fair enough. I was doing volunteer tax returns as part of the AARP program this year before we got shut down. The newer 'higher deduction' helps many people but the elimination of a bunch of legacy deductions hurts a few. All that said, if you can borrow at 3ish% there could be decent returns in other areas - not fixed income or annuities IMO. Real estate up here seems to be getting stronger as NYC folk are thinking they don't want to live in the petri dish.

The other thing I learned as a tax volunteer is that the tax code is even more screwed up than I thought beforehand.....

Charitable donations still work well.....so if you are so inclined you may want to give earlier this year - a bunch of those organizations are really hurting.

The mortgage interest deduction was to encourage people to purchase their own home. For some people that makes sense but for others it does not.

I noted before that I don't bother to file income taxes. But yes, I will give to charities and help others directly. Especially young boys and girls with candy and toys. No, this phat man will not wear a red suit.

All of those deductions are for special interests, eliminate most of those and a lot of lawyers and accountants will have to find real work. Business executives will have to learn to run a business instead of milking the tax code. Those things do not sound like a bad idea.

[Cap Mandrake]

After all this talk about packing houses I have begun hoarding meat[:)] I was at Stater Bros and they had rib eyes for $5.99 a pound so instead I bought a 12 lb, 4 rib roast. We still had about 6 lbs of smoked brisket and half a ham I found for 99 cents a pound so I made a big batch of chile with the brisket and my wife made pea soup with the ham. I can't help myself. [:)]

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

My family has switched over too. We opened up a separate petty cash debit card, with no more than a few hundred dollar balance (in case it gets hacked/stolen). The card actually pays 10 cents every time we use it to pay for a transaction in person -- encouraging us to use it for smaller transactions. It has reduced our cash transactions almost to 0.

The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK

Hate debt as well. That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Paid off a 30 year in 19 years. It was never a big thing, just part of the monthly budget, less and less so as the years went on. That being said it one of the happiest days of my life when made that last payment. One gets a whole different attitude when you have no debt and own your own home. It is traditional in many parts of the country to paint your front door red when you make your last mortgage payment. Haven't done that, and its been years, because my wife and I can't agree on the shade of red. 33 years, know each other since we were 15, 3 kids through college and can't agree on a shade of paint. I heard recently that the secret to a great long marriage is "what you don't say". Not worth it I suppose

[Canoerebel]

The parallels continue, John. My wife and I married 33 years, three kids, paid off home.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

After all this talk about packing houses I have begun hoarding meat[:)] I was at Stater Bros and they had rib eyes for $5.99 a pound so instead I bought a 12 lb, 4 rib roast. We still had about 6 lbs of smoked brisket and half a ham I found for 99 cents a pound so I made a big batch of chile with the brisket and my wife made pea soup with the ham. I can't help myself. [:)]

After all this talk about packing houses I have begun hoarding meat I was at Stater Bros and they had rib eyes for $5.99 a pound so instead I bought a 12 lb, 4 rib roast. We still had about 6 lbs of smoked brisket and half a ham I found for 99 cents a pound so I made a big batch of chile with the brisket and my wife made pea soup with the ham. I can't help myself.

I think that is why I went out for that fast food burger. Because I heard they were getting scarce. When this first started people were hording toilet paper and meat. For the life of me I still don't understand the toilet paper but I kind of understood the groceries. First couple of weeks everything was unknown and scary. Anyway, all the meat was gone. And then I found out that you couldn't buy a chest freezer! Sold out all across the country. So not only were they hoarding meat they were buying freezers to horde more meat. We eat little meat to begin with but we do it some. Still, not a great hardship. It's available, but it is expensive. Had steak last night as as it was jsut my wife and I we paid for the good stuff. As you say Rib Eye, that is good eats on the grill

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).

Dan, would you mind finding and providing the retraction from that The Atlantic article in question? Just post the relevant parts where they demonstrate contrition and remorse for really screwing the pooch on their prognostication and apologize for the acerbic, condescending and holier-than-thou haughty language? The one where they indicate in subtext that the piece was too heavy on political finger wagging and that the editor and 'reporter' have been disciplined in accordance with journalistic standards? I haven't been able to find it and thought you might have better luck than I in finding it.

[Canoerebel]

I'll start looking now, but it shouldn't take long. The press isn't into owning up. [:)]