OT: Corona virus

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe




We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.

Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/economy/ ... index.html

Uneven adjustments.

Very hard to predict.

Full disclaimer - I certainly have no crystal ball.

As above - Some food supply chains - for example - would have been geared for a percentage of restaurant sales. Restaurant sales have dried up. Some foods going to waste - sadly - others in high demand

I do wonder if "vacations" no longer mean "airplane getaways" and "cruise" - but are family camping trips in local states - so perhaps RVs will be in demand ? So Winnebago's ?

I would only caution using historic indicators and predictors ultimately because in the short term we cannot predict the changes in consumer behavior and "trends". Further if e-commerce will truly fully disrupt traditional Retail and Wholesale.

The 2008-9 Crisis caused some restructuring and changes but was not fundamentally a health crisis. It was an asset/debt bubble so to speak.

Will Health concerns change some patterns more fundementally?

I did recently mention in this thread the problem of inventories increasing.

Heard on the radio today an economics reporter sate that March year on year sales of new automobiles fell 90% in France and 98% in Italy. Those two countries experience will not be friendless.

Alfred

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll start looking now, but it shouldn't take long. The press isn't into owning up. [:)]

That's not fair.[:)] Meet the Press admitted their hatchet job last weekend. Still waiting for 60 Minutes to admit to their hatchet job.

For those not aware of what transpired, both deliberately edited out full answers provided by the Foreign Secretary and the A-G. The edited "answer" broadcast was one which allowed cheap shots at the integrity of the officials.

Alfred

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: fcooke

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK

Hate debt as well. That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Paid off a 30 year in 19 years. It was never a big thing, just part of the monthly budget, less and less so as the years went on. That being said it one of the happiest days of my life when made that last payment. One gets a whole different attitude when you have no debt and own your own home. It is traditional in many parts of the country to paint your front door red when you make your last mortgage payment. Haven't done that, and its been years, because my wife and I can't agree on the shade of red. 33 years, know each other since we were 15, 3 kids through college and can't agree on a shade of paint. I heard recently that the secret to a great long marriage is "what you don't say". Not worth it I suppose

Oddly enough, I now live in a converted barn. The front door is red but I had never heard about that before you posted it. No mortgage, but might take one out - we shall see. Rest of the barn is green but we will move it to red on the next paint job. We are having an 'essential' kitchen remodel done at the moment. The wife unit is stir crazy at the moment so I have chosen to not engage and she can have whatever colors she wants......I have also learned when to be quiet....only 23 years so far.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: fcooke



Hate debt as well. That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Paid off a 30 year in 19 years. It was never a big thing, just part of the monthly budget, less and less so as the years went on. That being said it one of the happiest days of my life when made that last payment. One gets a whole different attitude when you have no debt and own your own home. It is traditional in many parts of the country to paint your front door red when you make your last mortgage payment. Haven't done that, and its been years, because my wife and I can't agree on the shade of red. 33 years, know each other since we were 15, 3 kids through college and can't agree on a shade of paint. I heard recently that the secret to a great long marriage is "what you don't say". Not worth it I suppose

Oddly enough, I now live in a converted barn. The front door is red but I had never heard about that before you posted it. No mortgage, but might take one out - we shall see. Rest of the barn is green but we will move it to red on the next paint job. We are having an 'essential' kitchen remodel done at the moment. The wife unit is stir crazy at the moment so I have chosen to not engage and she can have whatever colors she wants......I have also learned when to be quiet....only 23 years so far.

Still free . . .
So I can do whatever I want and not get slapped . . .

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: fcooke
That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.

That's us! If you can refinance, you should. We're going from 5% to 2.85 and 28 years to 20, and the payment is the same. Total amount paid over the life of the loan dropped by a full third.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/economy/ ... index.html

Uneven adjustments.

Very hard to predict.

Full disclaimer - I certainly have no crystal ball.

As above - Some food supply chains - for example - would have been geared for a percentage of restaurant sales. Restaurant sales have dried up. Some foods going to waste - sadly - others in high demand

I do wonder if "vacations" no longer mean "airplane getaways" and "cruise" - but are family camping trips in local states - so perhaps RVs will be in demand ? So Winnebago's ?

I would only caution using historic indicators and predictors ultimately because in the short term we cannot predict the changes in consumer behavior and "trends". Further if e-commerce will truly fully disrupt traditional Retail and Wholesale.

The 2008-9 Crisis caused some restructuring and changes but was not fundamentally a health crisis. It was an asset/debt bubble so to speak.

Will Health concerns change some patterns more fundementally?

I did recently mention in this thread the problem of inventories increasing.

Heard on the radio today an economics reporter sate that March year on year sales of new automobiles fell 90% in France and 98% in Italy. Those two countries experience will not be friendless.

Alfred

I heard that there were good deals on automobiles. I have other needs to attend to first but I can afford them. If I can get some money together, maybe I will see about purchasing a vehicle. I also read where Hertz is downsizing their fleet.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn



Tar, feathers, a rail....

I am not blood thirsty. I have never had Black pudding (blood pudding) nor do I care for blood sausage. I have had blood sausage. Give me a good Thuringian bratwurst. Even with curry ketchsup and curry powder on it. Mit pomme frites und mayonaise, und ein gute bier!

But the idea is to send a message that such actions are not tolerated. Just having them resign probably is not punishment enough since they people involved will probably just become a paid lobbyist, lobbying their cronies still in government. And regular prison, no country club. In fact, put them in with lifers whose grandparents died from Covid-19 but don't give them special protection. I wonder if they would then squeal like a pig . . .

But still you would look awfully silly if the reason behind pulling out her mother was a well documented case of elder abuse.

I would not look silly since the investigators would be looking for just that, an explainable motive. Of course, then the question to be asked is "Was that personal care home shut down?"

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: fcooke
That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.

That's us! If you can refinance, you should. We're going from 5% to 2.85 and 28 years to 20, and the payment is the same. Total amount paid over the life of the loan dropped by a full third.

If you can afford to, pay more and it will get paid off even faster. Especially early on when the interest paid is such a large part of the payment.

[Lowpe]

Coronavirus In Pennsylvania: Attorney General Opens Criminal Investigation Into Nursing Homes


https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/05 ... tigations/


I have no idea where all this will end. The cynic in me -- is that the State will fully prosecute some nursing homes to divert blame from their own orders.

More information on the Sec of Health moving her 93 year old mother out of a nursing home, and into a hotel [X(]while mandating nursing homes take covid positive patients and denying them the already setup state level nursing home mitigation program.

Doesn't look good.

Meanwhile a town near me did say they are going to open up. In addition, another town turn turned down a visit from the President (and a detail of 20 security/aides) on the grounds it was too dangerous. Instead the President is visiting a company in Allentown area of Pennsylvania tomorrow. Meanwhile, Bucks County (democrat) still has not heard from the office of the Governor.

[Lowpe]

This tactic is really go viral across the United States, I hear even states are adopting it.

Portland Public Schools plans to furlough teachers, principals, other staffers 1 day a week -- but they’d make more money not less

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/20 ... -less.html

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).

Indeed, things look promising. I've heard anecdotal evidence that while business are open, attendance at some restaurants was down considerably from mothers day last year. I've been unable to get any evidence either way. Not trying to make any point but Georgia has been hit harder than most on the lost jobs front. Don't know why Georgia lost so many jobs so fast. Anyway, see if you can find any info on actual attendance at places. I also understand bars are still closed. That seems wise because as soon as they opened them in Korea and Germany that is where the spikes were. Easy for us non-drinkers to say stuff like that I suppose but I understand that our fellow forum participants might modestly partake from time to time [:)]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).

Indeed, things look promising. I've heard anecdotal evidence that while business are open, attendance at some restaurants was down considerably from mothers day last year. I've been unable to get any evidence either way. Not trying to make any point but Georgia has been hit harder than most on the lost jobs front. Don't know why Georgia lost so many jobs so fast. Anyway, see if you can find any info on actual attendance at places. I also understand bars are still closed. That seems wise because as soon as they opened them in Korea and Germany that is where the spikes were. Easy for us non-drinkers to say stuff like that I suppose but I understand that our fellow forum participants might modestly partake from time to time [:)]

Bars are also a place where people like to socialize, play darts, pool, and do other things.

The problem that I see is if a 60% alcohol solution is enough to kill the corona virus, how can a person consume that much?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Coronavirus In Pennsylvania: Attorney General Opens Criminal Investigation Into Nursing Homes


https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/05 ... tigations/


I have no idea where all this will end. The cynic in me -- is that the State will fully prosecute some nursing homes to divert blame from their own orders.

More information on the Sec of Health moving her 93 year old mother out of a nursing home, and into a hotel [X(]while mandating nursing homes take covid positive patients and denying them the already setup state level nursing home mitigation program.

Doesn't look good.

Meanwhile a town near me did say they are going to open up. In addition, another town turn turned down a visit from the President (and a detail of 20 security/aides) on the grounds it was too dangerous. Instead the President is visiting a company in Allentown area of Pennsylvania tomorrow. Meanwhile, Bucks County (democrat) still has not heard from the office of the Governor.

I wonder if any local prosecutors will try to press charges against the state workers who failed these people.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

This tactic is really go viral across the United States, I hear even states are adopting it.

Portland Public Schools plans to furlough teachers, principals, other staffers 1 day a week -- but they’d make more money not less

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/20 ... -less.html

I think that the program should be modified to stop this.

Also, will they have a reduced workload or will they be expected to have the same work output.

[Canoerebel]

The governor extended the order to keep bars, nightclubs and music venues closed through the end of the month.

Restaurants can open, subject to a variety of criteria, including social distancing. As a result, many remain closed or only offer takeout. In my area, I estimate that only about half are open.

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).

Indeed, things look promising. I've heard anecdotal evidence that while business are open, attendance at some restaurants was down considerably from mothers day last year. I've been unable to get any evidence either way. Not trying to make any point but Georgia has been hit harder than most on the lost jobs front. Don't know why Georgia lost so many jobs so fast. Anyway, see if you can find any info on actual attendance at places. I also understand bars are still closed. That seems wise because as soon as they opened them in Korea and Germany that is where the spikes were. Easy for us non-drinkers to say stuff like that I suppose but I understand that our fellow forum participants might modestly partake from time to time [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Obvert has been absent longer than usual. Perhaps the little Mr. Obvert has arrived. Whether or not, here's hoping the family is doing well.

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

....And hopefully Obvert has some good news for us (apologies if I missed an announcement).

Cheers,
CB

[Lowpe]

Airports are testing thermal cameras and other technology to screen travelers for COVID-19

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/airport ... 9-1.629552

[Canoerebel]

A cousin just dropped by. He's an Air Force Academy graduate, longtime fighter pilot, now commercial airline pilot. His work load has been reduced but he has a sense of optimism. As he expressed it, he thinks there will be pent up demand for travel, including vacations, as things gradually returns to normal.

We both agree that there's no sense of doom and gloom in this area. No sense of pending financial catastrophe that seemed to descend with the 2008 financial crisis. That may be coming, it may be inevitable, it may be delayed as ripples are felt months and years from now. But, to this point, the population seems fairly optimistic and normal. That may be an anachronism of life in a semi-rural and small-town environment. Is it different elsewhere? Is there a sense in NYC or similar urban centers that the wheels have come off?

[Lowpe]

Americans don't realize that coronavirus recovery may take months

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-slow- ... 02346.html

[Lowpe]

High-risk states are seeing fewer new coronavirus cases

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases ... 5f143.html