OT: Corona virus

[Lowpe]

BROADWAY WON’T REOPEN IN 2020. NOR WILL THE MET

https://slippedisc.com/2020/05/broadway ... l-the-met/

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A cousin just dropped by. He's an Air Force Academy graduate, longtime fighter pilot, now commercial airline pilot. His work load has been reduced but he has a sense of optimism. As he expressed it, he thinks there will be pent up demand for travel, including vacations, as things gradually returns to normal.

We both agree that there's no sense of doom and gloom in this area. No sense of pending financial catastrophe that seemed to descend with the 2008 financial crisis. That may be coming, it may be inevitable, it may be delayed as ripples are felt months and years from now. But, to this point, the population seems fairly optimistic and normal. That may be an anachronism of life in a semi-rural and small-town environment. Is it different elsewhere? Is there a sense in NYC or similar urban centers that the wheels have come off?

Most folks around here just want to get out and about. There is a serious unhappiness with 'leadership'. That said, some people are scared. My wife is scared. Pretty much everything but eating establishments seem to be open. The ice cream shop in town is open. We have a bunch of contractors doing 'essential' work on the house. Folks need to provide for their families. I'm not going to hug them or anything.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there a sense in NYC or similar urban centers that the wheels have come off?

warspite1

The wheels are off. They are no longer attached to the car but the car hasn't crashed yet as its still moving forward on momentum (Government spending) - but it's slowing. The car will stop. How exactly it stops - a painful slide or crashing and burning (or a myriad of options in between) will depend on a number of things, not least what (if anything) this virus still has in store.

But at present, there is absolutely no reason or justification for anyone feeling optimistic or normal here. In the UK the money paid out to date - even if this all stopped (which isn't going to happen) tomorrow - has to be repaid. Big employers are going to be laying off people big time as the reality sinks in and the Governments realise they can't just keep writing cheques.

Pent up demand for travel? Well quite, we all want to go back to normal don't we? But that doesn't mean people are travelling anywhere anytime soon. As I pointed out previously, just who is going to go on holiday without insurance - what insurance companies are going to start re-insuring travellers overseas on packed aircraft to destinations that are not Covid-free? How does anyone come to the UK for a holiday with a 14-day quarantine period? And its not just the travel industry.

Can this thing just die out in a short space of time, allowing us to 'gradually return to normal'? Well I don't know anything about viruses but from what I've read, no that doesn't appear likely. Look at South Korea's reaction to the nightclub incident. What happens if there is a sudden up tick in New York, London, Madrid etc?

I think anyone that thinks there is some gradual return to normal and that this is nothing like 2008 are yet to get with the program.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Americans don't realize that coronavirus recovery may take months

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-slow- ... 02346.html

It might come back quicker than the experts think because some people have more money now plus the pent up demand is there. Some sectors might fare worse, however.

[Cap Mandrake]

I have discovered two good things about masks.

1) You can get away without shaving for a day

2) You can tell when you have bad breath.

[Cap Mandrake]

A California county telling Tesla they can't open an assembly line is exactly the kind of idiocy that WILL bring on a 1930's style disaster.

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll start looking now, but it shouldn't take long. The press isn't into owning up. [:)]

That's not fair.[:)] Meet the Press admitted their hatchet job last weekend. Still waiting for 60 Minutes to admit to their hatchet job.

For those not aware of what transpired, both deliberately edited out full answers provided by the Foreign Secretary and the A-G. The edited "answer" broadcast was one which allowed cheap shots at the integrity of the officials.

Alfred

And some people wonder why we are wary of the mainstream press.

[Lowpe]

Funny how this works.

Class Action lawsuit in Beaver County Pennsylvania versus the State on the handling of Nursing Homes in late April.

https://www.wpxi.com/news/top-stories/c ... GG2TEXEDI/

And then Governor seemingly targets Beaver County refusing to allow them to reopen.

Gov. Wolf Keeps Beaver Co. In The ‘Red’ Phase, But Officials Say They’re Moving The County To ‘Yellow’ May 15

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/05 ... es-opened/

and the State Attorney General opens a criminal investigation of said nursing homes (previously linked).

ps: Beaver County was I believe the home of Joe Namath, if any of you old timers remember him.[:)]

[warspite1]

He said Beaver (fnarr, fnarr).....

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there a sense in NYC or similar urban centers that the wheels have come off?

warspite1

The wheels are off. They are no longer attached to the car but the car hasn't crashed yet as its still moving forward on momentum (Government spending) - but it's slowing. The car will stop. How exactly it stops - a painful slide or crashing and burning (or a myriad of options in between) will depend on a number of things, not least what (if anything) this virus still has in store.

But at present, there is absolutely no reason or justification for anyone feeling optimistic or normal here. In the UK the money paid out to date - even if this all stopped (which isn't going to happen) tomorrow - has to be repaid. Big employers are going to be laying off people big time as the reality sinks in and the Governments realise they can't just keep writing cheques.

Pent up demand for travel? Well quite, we all want to go back to normal don't we? But that doesn't mean people are travelling anywhere anytime soon. As I pointed out previously, just who is going to go on holiday without insurance - what insurance companies are going to start re-insuring travellers overseas on packed aircraft to destinations that are not Covid-free? How does anyone come to the UK for a holiday with a 14-day quarantine period? And its not just the travel industry.

Can this thing just die out in a short space of time, allowing us to 'gradually return to normal'? Well I don't know anything about viruses but from what I've read, no that doesn't appear likely. Look at South Korea's reaction to the nightclub incident. What happens if there is a sudden up tick in New York, London, Madrid etc?

I think anyone that thinks there is some gradual return to normal and that this is nothing like 2008 are yet to get with the program.

I've been waiting for the Conference Board to update the UK's LEI/CEIs. They're overdue for April. So this is the latest update as of April 11 (from March data sets). I love you guys, but this isn't a good place to start a recession from mate. You guys will have some pretty hardcore economic issues in short order. I'm sorry. [:(]

Our LEIs dropped by 6.7% last month and will drop more this month. The Conference Board needs to call the ball on this sooner rather than later-we are a recession now. Full stop.

[Lowpe]

Heartbreaking photo shows kids playing in isolation as France reopens schools

https://archive.fo/RIc3X

archive of ny post may 13

[Chickenboy]

Here's the US data, updated relatively recently:

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there a sense in NYC or similar urban centers that the wheels have come off?

warspite1

The wheels are off. They are no longer attached to the car but the car hasn't crashed yet as its still moving forward on momentum (Government spending) - but it's slowing. The car will stop. How exactly it stops - a painful slide or crashing and burning (or a myriad of options in between) will depend on a number of things, not least what (if anything) this virus still has in store.

But at present, there is absolutely no reason or justification for anyone feeling optimistic or normal here. In the UK the money paid out to date - even if this all stopped (which isn't going to happen) tomorrow - has to be repaid. Big employers are going to be laying off people big time as the reality sinks in and the Governments realise they can't just keep writing cheques.

Pent up demand for travel? Well quite, we all want to go back to normal don't we? But that doesn't mean people are travelling anywhere anytime soon. As I pointed out previously, just who is going to go on holiday without insurance - what insurance companies are going to start re-insuring travellers overseas on packed aircraft to destinations that are not Covid-free? How does anyone come to the UK for a holiday with a 14-day quarantine period? And its not just the travel industry.

Can this thing just die out in a short space of time, allowing us to 'gradually return to normal'? Well I don't know anything about viruses but from what I've read, no that doesn't appear likely. Look at South Korea's reaction to the nightclub incident. What happens if there is a sudden up tick in New York, London, Madrid etc?

I think anyone that thinks there is some gradual return to normal and that this is nothing like 2008 are yet to get with the program.

I've been waiting for the Conference Board to update the UK's LEI/CEIs. They're overdue for April. So this is the latest update as of April 11 (from March data sets). I love you guys, but this isn't a good place to start a recession from mate. You guys will have some pretty hardcore economic issues in short order. I'm sorry. [:(]

Our LEIs dropped by 6.7% last month and will drop more this month. The Conference Board needs to call the ball on this sooner rather than later-we are a recession now. Full stop.

warspite1

Yep. A world of pain awaits no matter what - the only question is just how bad is it going to be? From the word go I've feared the economic consequences of this just as much as the medical - and I'm in a high risk category!

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Homer Simpson: "Mmmmmmm, Soylent Green."

That club outbreak in Seoul from 12 days ago has resulted in a total of... wait for it... 119 new infections. Here's the story: Infections linked to Itaewon clubs 'soar' to 119 [my scare quotes]

Call me optimistic, but 119 infections out of 14,121 at-risk people being tested tells me the system here is working (although the clubs' customer logbooks had a lot of bogus phone numbers, they did end up using cell phone triangulation and credit card data to track down the rest of the club goers and people nearby). Most of you gents are facing much higher numbers of new cases in your regions. Nevertheless, the government here pushed back public school openings one week. If they are going to overreact every time one of these spikes happens Little Johnny won't be seeing the inside of a classroom anytime soon.

Shout out to Cap Mandrake for meritorious service in the front lines of this outbreak. Keep up the good work, sir.

And hopefully Obvert has some good news for us (apologies if I missed an announcement).

Cheers,
CB

Allow me to rephrase: did one guy going to a club when he was sick result in 119 additional infected people? Now, maybe some of them could've contracted it from other sources, but... it was one guy, right? I'm not up to date on what happened there.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

France has 14.6% mortality (total cases divided by mortality, Worldometers). Italy, UK, Belgium, Sweden and Netherlands are over 10%. Spain is right at 10%. The US at 6%. Germany at 4.4%. South Korea 2.5%. Japan 4%.

There are large numbers of cases in many countries, but mortality percentages differ greatly. Why? Tabulating criteria? Quality of medical care? Average age or underlying health conditions of patients? Population density? Environmental conditions (such as pollution)? A combination of these and/or others?

One possibility: 3.6% of Japanese are obese (BMI over 30). The correlation doesn't hold well among western nations, however, where the rate is 39% of Americans, 29% UK and 23% Germany (figures limited to adults for these three nations) - if obesity were the overriding factor, you'd expect the highest mortality rate to be in the US.

I'm hesitant to compare except in the very broadest sense because the methodology in tallies differs from country to country. In addition to that, countries also have different protocols for testing (some places test more, some less, some more targeted, others more broad, etc.). Apples, oranges.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

France has 14.6% mortality (total cases divided by mortality, Worldometers). Italy, UK, Belgium, Sweden and Netherlands are over 10%. Spain is right at 10%. The US at 6%. Germany at 4.4%. South Korea 2.5%. Japan 4%.

There are large numbers of cases in many countries, but mortality percentages differ greatly. Why? Tabulating criteria? Quality of medical care? Average age or underlying health conditions of patients? Population density? Environmental conditions (such as pollution)? A combination of these and/or others?

One possibility: 3.6% of Japanese are obese (BMI over 30). The correlation doesn't hold well among western nations, however, where the rate is 39% of Americans, 29% UK and 23% Germany (figures limited to adults for these three nations) - if obesity were the overriding factor, you'd expect the highest mortality rate to be in the US.

I think that the reason is the higher number of tests per capita done because that would find more cases. More milder cases found and found sooner for appropriate medical care would mean fewer deaths per case. But what do I know, I am not a politician.

No, I think you're correct here.

If only the most severe cases get tested and confirmed in Country A, while Country B has an enormous testing capacity so everybody with symptoms gets tested, it is entirely plausible (indeed, extremely likely) that Country A would show a vastly higher mortality rate than Country B even if the actual, real, true mortality rate was identical in both places.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
My household has taken up baking like it is a competitive sport.

Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.

Some things were the result of a temporary shock to supply as people stocked up (paper towels, bleach, etc.).

Others are the result of a change in consumer behavior (flour, yeast).

Some are a mix of both (TP).

[Chickenboy]

Euro Area just updated today. Ugh. [:(]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, I took another look at that chart (https://rt.live/) with regard to your comment (in bold, below). It shows Georgia Ro below 1.0 (at .83) and the confidence interval (margin of error) doesn't reach 1.0, as best I can tell.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

IHME's updated US mortality projection is 137k by August 4, if that's what you're looking for (I may not be comprehending the point you're making).

Georgia may be the bellwether for all this. We began gradually easing countermeasures 18 days ago. So far, so good. From my seat it seems like the easing wasn't premature. I gather from Chickenboy's post a few hours back that he feels the same about Texas. My daughter and son-in-law feel the same about Tennessee. But there is no doubt there are jurisdictions where easing wouldn't be prudent right now.

Yes, that's the number I was looking at.

The state-by-state transmission number over on rt.live appears to be good data, although the confidence interval for recent dates for Texas and Georgia includes values higher than 1.0 (it looks like the data is refined over time as well and is about 7-days delayed).

Correct - on the main chart. Scroll down to the state by state, which also has mouseover capability. The preliminary numbers and error margin does include values higher than 1.0.

I found it interesting that the error bar has gotten bigger essentially since the easing of countermeasures, which is not really a great thing. The median predicted value has stayed roughly flat, which is good, but the widening of the error bars is not good. Although the effect is small.

Looking at the state-by-state chart today, there is less red on the Georgia one than there was yesterday (meaning less likelihood that the R0 is higher than 1.0 in the preliminary numbers), but it's still not impossible. The reason I am focusing on the "not impossible" is that any confidence margin that includes 1.0 is too high and signals to me that countermeasures shouldn't be eased, lest all the previous pain be in vain as higher than 1.0 means another spike in cases is on the way.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The press and those medically and/or politically opposed to re-opening predicted surges in new cases and morality when shelter-in-place ended in some states. But the Ro rates remain level or close thereto, including: Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Mississippi, Kansas and Idaho (source: https://rt.live/). The rates in each of those states is below 1.0, meaning the pandemic continues to decline. It's possible that the wheels may come off here or there, but to this point sky-is-falling assertions have been wrong.

It hasn't been a disaster, no.

But the jump in IHME modeled fatalities (up another 10k today, to 147k by August 4th) is a direct result of the easing of countermeasures.

On the very day that the first gaggle of states announced they were going to end their lockdowns early, the IHME updated their numbers - from ~70K to >100K. That's a pretty big effect. We'll pass 100K confirmed dead in about another week.