OT: Corona virus

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

A California county telling Tesla they can't open an assembly line is exactly the kind of idiocy that WILL bring on a 1930's style disaster.

California Police Attempt To Arrest Elon Musk's Holographic Decoy As Real Musk Escapes On Rocket To Mars

[Lowpe]

The City of Brotherly Love, Philadelphia

Great News. Philadelphia’s Gangs Apparently Ready To Reopen From Shutdown

https://hotair.com/archives/jazz-shaw/2 ... -shutdown/

[Admiral DadMan]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth




Indeed, things look promising. I've heard anecdotal evidence that while business are open, attendance at some restaurants was down considerably from mothers day last year. I've been unable to get any evidence either way. Not trying to make any point but Georgia has been hit harder than most on the lost jobs front. Don't know why Georgia lost so many jobs so fast. Anyway, see if you can find any info on actual attendance at places. I also understand bars are still closed. That seems wise because as soon as they opened them in Korea and Germany that is where the spikes were. Easy for us non-drinkers to say stuff like that I suppose but I understand that our fellow forum participants might modestly partake from time to time [:)]

Bars are also a place where people like to socialize, play darts, pool, and do other things.

The problem that I see is if a 60% alcohol solution is enough to kill the corona virus, how can a person consume that much?

60% would be 120 Proof. Very few beverages sold with that high an alcohol content. Moonshine might get there but most commercial distilleries want their patrons to consume more instead of going blotto on drink 3.

I'm not as think as you drunk I am

[CaptBeefheart]

Lokasenna: The cluster from one guy partying in Seoul on May 1-2 (one night) has gone up to 50 direct infections and 70 secondary infections according to today's news: Over 24,000 linked to Itaewon cluster tested: Seoul mayor

Due to the sensitive nature of the case (gay clubs and all that), the city decided to offer free, anonymous testing to anyone who had been in that area. Some people are worried about their jobs if their bosses find out they've been to a gay club. So, the anonymous bit is a good thing. The city is threatening fines of about $1600 if you were in that area and don't come forward for testing.

For a while testing has been offered to illegal immigrants under the proviso they don't tell the Immigration Department.

JohnDillworth: I'd like to clarify that "large entertainment establishments" received a one-month closure order from the Seoul city government. As far as I can tell, none of my normal watering holes have been affected. I haven't gone to nightclubs in this country since the early Zeroes.

One thing to note here is that the government is very beholden to public opinion (probably more so than in other places). Obviously, these gay clubs have received a lot of bad press recently, so it was not a big thing for the mayor to shut down large establishments in general. The average person doesn't like those places anyway--they are considered hangouts for 20-somethings with too much disposable income (i.e. they live rent-free with mom and dad) and rich people in general (depending on the type of establishment). Now, if the government were to threaten to shut down the estimated 87,000 chicken and beer places in the country, you'd have an insurrection. The livelihoods of too many people depend on "chi-maek" joints and small restaurants in general.

EDIT: The city is demanding people who were in the Itaewon area from April 24 to May 6 be tested, hence the large number of tests. My buddy just reminded me we had dinner at a Czech joint in the area on April 23. There goes my chance to get a free COVID test.

Cheers,
CB

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus may never go away, World Health Organization warns
22 minutes ago


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52643682



"What did WHO say?

"It is important to put this on the table: this virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities, and this virus may never go away," Dr Ryan told the virtual press conference from Geneva.

"HIV has not gone away - but we have come to terms with the virus."

[witpqs]

One draft (perhaps not the latest) of the CDC reopening guidelines.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6883734-CDC-Business-Plans.html

[mind_messing]

Grim reading from this weeks update in Scotland.

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//st ... eek-19.pdf

Death rate 2.3 times higher in the most deprived areas than least deprived areas. Granted, most of the deaths have been in Glasgow and surrounding areas (which are generally more deprived) but that's still a pretty serious difference given how SIMD works.

[RangerJoe]

I was reading where it is the crowded conditions, not necessarily the high density population. Before anyone complains, the crowded conditions is where a lot of people are living in close quarters, not necessarily a high rise apartment building. The link that I posted about the meat packing industry explains it.

[Cap Mandrake]

If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?

[RangerJoe]

Minnesota and Mississippi are the latest to reopen their battered economies despite health experts warning that lifting coronavirus restrictions may spark new surge - as new cases surpass one million

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ID-19.html

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?

Are you asking from a professional point of view or from a personal interest?

[22sec]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Minnesota and Mississippi are the latest to reopen their battered economies despite health experts warning that lifting coronavirus restrictions may spark new surge - as new cases surpass one million

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ID-19.html

Here in Mississippi we are still alive and kicking almost three weeks in to this Russian roulette 🙄 that is taking our lives back. Heck, my 10 year old has his first baseball practice in two months this afternoon.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

France has 14.6% mortality (total cases divided by mortality, Worldometers). Italy, UK, Belgium, Sweden and Netherlands are over 10%. Spain is right at 10%. The US at 6%. Germany at 4.4%. South Korea 2.5%. Japan 4/10ths of a percent.

There are large numbers of cases in many countries, but mortality percentages differ greatly. Why? Tabulating criteria? Quality of medical care? Average age or underlying health conditions of patients? Population density? Environmental conditions (such as pollution). A combination of these and/or others?

One possibility: 3.6% of Japanese are obese (BMI over 30). The correlation doesn't hold well among western nations, however, where the rate is 39% of Americans, 29% UK and 23% Germany (figures limited to adults for these three nations).

These are the questions that need answering I think. I tend to think it is a combination of factors, but then which of those factors is most meaningful? For example CR mentions density:

Interestingly, Seoul's population density is almost twice that of New York City, four times higher than Los Angeles and eight times higher than the density of Rome.

Diet? Past experience with viral outbreaks? How about effectiveness of local govt? Life cycle of the virus?

Here is a study from Canada:

Canadian study finds temperature, latitude not associated with COVID-19 spread


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 083551.htm

A new study finds that temperature and latitude do not appear to be associated with the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but school closures and other public health measures are having a positive effect.

--
BTW, This is the 3rd source I have seen that mentions closing schools to have a positive effect.

The gold standard of mortality won’t be available for a year or two. At that time you will be able to determine a simple number. Using years and years of historical records you determine two numbers. How many people were expected to die in 2020 In a a world without Covid, against how many actually did. Subtract one from the other and you have “excess mortality”. That is how many were killed, by all causes, from Covid. All causes: Covid, suicide, delayed medical care, people that should have gone to a doctor but didn’t, ect

[JohnDillworth]

Today’s unemployment numbers were significantly worse than expected and last weeks grim numbers were updated to be even worse. Stock market should be through the roof today. Markets seem to love people losing their jobs

[RangerJoe]

I have a kitten that needs to get spayed but no non-emergency vet surgeries until June. So June 15th she gets her attitude adjusted. Then, maybe she won't open the flatware drawer and try to crawl in, checking it out for a den . . . [:@]

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?

Are you asking from a professional point of view or from a personal interest?

Just "curious"[:)]

It does occur to me that in order to "successfully" infect 50 others in 3 hrs it might require actual INTENT to do so. I wonder if it is some kind of self-loathing rage or even hatred of gays.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Today’s unemployment numbers were significantly worse than expected and last weeks grim numbers were updated to be even worse. Stock market should be through the roof today. Markets seem to love people losing their jobs

I think the "gig workers" unemployment claims are making it through the system. In Calif., the unemployment bureaucrats were unready to handle it so the website and mail applications literally could not record the claims.

[Cap Mandrake]

Frightening thought. What of all the deferred Confessions for Catholics? There is going to be a serious backlog of sins to deal with. And what if you get hit by a truck while you are waiting? Can a Governor give you some kind of waiver like a no eviction order until July or something?

[obvert]

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

[Lovejoy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

Congratulations!