OT: Corona virus

[Cap Mandrake]

R0 is also dependent on the percentage of susceptible individuals in the population

R0 for measles is reported to be 12-18 but the calculated vales range between 3 and 203 [:D] All are obsolete because of the measles vaccine.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28757186

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:

Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.

https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-sto ... -minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota

Personally, I think that the Victoria Secret's models on the runway are the best models to look at . . . [X(]

[Cap Mandrake]

This notion of a "super-strain" is overdone. There are thousands of COVID-19 mutations. Most are neutral. Many are deleterious to the virus. Rarely, one is favorable. Think about how many billions of mutations there were between SARS-1 and SARS-2. Of course, once circulating in human populations, the selective pressure for human transmission is extreme.

There are dominant strains but that by itself does not mean they are worse. It could be "luck" or a key large gathering. It could even be that human activity will drive selection toward LESS severe disease. To see how this could happen imagine two strains. Let's say strain A is nasty and 90% of those infected are sick enough to be hospitalized by day 2. Strain B only requires hospitalization in 10% and 50% aren't even sure they are sick. Which strain is likely to become dominant?


Getting shoved into a freezer truck or incinerator is bad for viral reproduction.

[RangerJoe]

6 monkeys given an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Oxford did not catch COVID-19 after heavy exposure, raising hopes for a human vaccine
Bill Bostock
Apr 28, 2020

Six monkeys given a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford are said to be coronavirus-free 28 days after sustained exposure to the virus.

The result is a promising early sign for the vaccine, which is also undergoing human trials. A working human version, however, remains months away even in the best-case scenario.

The monkey experiment was carried out in late March by government scientists at the Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Hamilton, Montana, The New York Times reported Monday.

Six rhesus macaques received a vaccine produced by the Jenner Institute and the Oxford Vaccine Group. They were then exposed to heavy levels of the coronavirus that were known to have previously sickened other monkeys. These monkeys suffered no ill effects, however, and remained healthy at least 28 days later, The Times said.

"The rhesus macaque is pretty much the closest thing we have to humans," Vincent Munster, the head of the Virus Ecology Unit at the laboratory, told The Times.
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On Monday, the world's largest vaccine maker, the Serum Institute of India, said it would not wait for the trial to end and was preemptively making 40 million doses to save time in case it worked.

https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys ... 020-4?op=1

[Cap Mandrake]

Wow. The thing is you need a serious human safety study with any COVID vaccine because of this whole cytokine storm business and the many apparent immune mediated side effects (like Kawasaki Disease in kids)

[RangerJoe]

I am sure that this is happening over a lot of the country:

St. Louis County facing $15M-20M revenue shortfall, provides temporary property tax relief
The county has implemented a hiring freeze that leaves 65 positions empty.
By Katie Galioto Star Tribune
May 12, 2020

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DULUTH – St. Louis County officials are projecting a $15 to $20 million revenue shortfall this year in addition to the roughly $3.1 million in COVID-19-related costs racked up to date.

“We definitely are going to have to look at the size of our government,” said County Administrator Kevin Gray, who has instituted a hiring freeze that leaves 65 positions open to save the county $3 million this year.

Gray said the county will also evaluate future vacancies, “aggressively” manage all non-COVID spending and limit capital expenditures as officials brace for the blows to their $407 million budget.

On Tuesday, the St. Louis County Board voted unanimously to delay late penalties on property taxes for businesses and homeowners who suffered a financial hit from the pandemic.
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Matt Hilgart, government relations manager for the Association of Minnesota Counties, said at least 36 other counties in the state have provided a similar form of relief. The county collects property taxes twice a year for the state, cities and school districts, some of whom have said not receiving the revenue they’re due in June could cause immediate cash flow problems.

So far, Nilsen said the county has received $75 million in property taxes ahead of Friday’s deadline. In recent years, St. Louis County collected $133 million by May 15.

Property taxes make up $145 million of St. Louis County’s 2020 budget, and officials expect a larger percentage of delinquencies this year even with extensions for some payments. County leaders also anticipate a decrease in other tax revenue streams, investment revenue and permitting and service fees.

“And in the long-term, the largest cost drivers for counties will absolutely be the social safety net services they provide,” Hilgart said. “In times of need, we see our programs grow busier.”

https://www.startribune.com/st-louis-co ... 570403382/

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

[CaptBeefheart]

Obvert: Congratulations!

The Itaewon outbreak is now up to 142, and they've tested 35,000 people who visited the area over a two-week period. Here's an interesting snippet:

"Of the national total, at least 82 were those who visited affected venues in Itaewon, and the others were infected through chain transmissions. Around two-thirds of them were aged between 19 and 29, the KCDC said."

The latest article: Itaewon-linked chain transmissions grip greater Seoul area

The super spreader says he became symptomatic the next day, but I'm guessing he did a fair amount of sneezing or coughing in those clubs (apparently five bars and clubs).

One interesting side effect is some of the local press is trying to play up the foreign angle. Here's an example: Jitters as Teachers Found to Have Partied in Itaewon

"According to the Ministry of Education, 880 teachers went to nightclubs and bars in Itaewon over the long weekend, 366 of them foreigners who typically work as language instructors in schools and crammers."

That quote is actually kind of funny as it confirms my observation that Itaewon is not longer a foreigner haven. In the old days, there'd be thousands of English teachers there on the prowl on a four-day weekend. I've seen on a couple of Facebook groups that a number of foreign teachers, most of whom weren't anywhere near Itaewon over the time in question, are being shat upon by their English school employers over this since Little Johnny's mom is worried about what those dastardly foreigners are up to. Nevermind that those clubs were filled with about 95% Koreans, the super spreader himself is Korean and, if I recall correctly, only four out of the 142 infected were foreigners.

Anyway, I've seen worse anti-foreign backlashes in this country. Life goes on.

Cheers,
CB

[sPzAbt653]

Criminal Investigation Into Nursing Homes

Hopefully there will be some good come out of all this mess, that care and service improves in these facilities. It's been bad for many years [maybe forever] and now governments have the opportunity to do some good and if they don't the rest of us have fodder for our cannons - 60%+ of COVID-19 Deaths occurred in these facilities. Let their final sacrifice not be for nothing.

[sPzAbt653]

If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?

A lot of coughing and sneezing that nobody was bothered by! Seriously though, it does seem that this story has a hole in it. It takes ten minutes of being in close proximity of someone with the disease in order to transmit it [by proximity]. So it would have taken him over 8 hours to infect 50 people. That's a lot of talking.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?

A lot of coughing and sneezing that nobody was bothered by! Seriously though, it does seem that this story has a hole in it. It takes ten minutes of being in close proximity of someone with the disease in order to transmit it [by proximity]. So it would have taken him over 8 hours to infect 50 people. That's a lot of talking.

He can infect more than one person at a time . . . [8|]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:

Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.

https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-sto ... -minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota

This is another good article about people with expertise stepping up to work through the day and night to help figure this out. Hats off to them for this work.

I also love that this is going these reserchers a chance to continue to work with new inputs and a better understanding as this develops to fine tune the tools they've created.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Obvert: Congratulations!

The Itaewon outbreak is now up to 142, and they've tested 35,000 people who visited the area over a two-week period. Here's an interesting snippet:

"Of the national total, at least 82 were those who visited affected venues in Itaewon, and the others were infected through chain transmissions. Around two-thirds of them were aged between 19 and 29, the KCDC said."

The latest article: Itaewon-linked chain transmissions grip greater Seoul area

The super spreader says he became symptomatic the next day, but I'm guessing he did a fair amount of sneezing or coughing in those clubs (apparently five bars and clubs).

One interesting side effect is some of the local press is trying to play up the foreign angle. Here's an example: Jitters as Teachers Found to Have Partied in Itaewon

"According to the Ministry of Education, 880 teachers went to nightclubs and bars in Itaewon over the long weekend, 366 of them foreigners who typically work as language instructors in schools and crammers."

That quote is actually kind of funny as it confirms my observation that Itaewon is not longer a foreigner haven. In the old days, there'd be thousands of English teachers there on the prowl on a four-day weekend. I've seen on a couple of Facebook groups that a number of foreign teachers, most of whom weren't anywhere near Itaewon over the time in question, are being shat upon by their English school employers over this since Little Johnny's mom is worried about what those dastardly foreigners are up to. Nevermind that those clubs were filled with about 95% Koreans, the super spreader himself is Korean and, if I recall correctly, only four out of the 142 infected were foreigners.

Anyway, I've seen worse anti-foreign backlashes in this country. Life goes on.

Cheers,
CB

Thanks! Up early trying to settle the tike while my wife gets a bit of sleep. They just want milk every 20 minutes at this stage!

In order to do this kind of tracking you first have to have low case numbers. So SK is in a good position to keep knocking these back as they develop.

Here restaurants and bars are not open, but I just read here that Wisconsin now has some bars open. That'll be interesting to watch. They're planning distancing, but not sure how that works in a bar.

You mentioned your watering holes aren't yet fenced off. How do they do it there? Any restrictions on movement? Ordering differently? Masks for all? Mostly outside?

Of course again it's different if population case numbers are low.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?

A lot of coughing and sneezing that nobody was bothered by! Seriously though, it does seem that this story has a hole in it. It takes ten minutes of being in close proximity of someone with the disease in order to transmit it [by proximity]. So it would have taken him over 8 hours to infect 50 people. That's a lot of talking.

That seems to be old thinking now. No one her anyway is mentioning ten minutes to infect others in closed indoor environments. The tube is of course the most highly packed place in London on a Friday night. If it can in some environments get around aerosolised then any amount of time could lead to someone's breath hitting someone else in the eye, nose, or mouth.

[CaptBeefheart]

Obvert: "You mentioned your watering holes aren't yet fenced off. How do they do it there? Any restrictions on movement? Ordering differently? Masks for all? Mostly outside?"

Actually, I've noticed a few theatrical measures here and there, but restaurants and bars haven't changed much (some have partial outside seating, but they would anyway). Workers definitely wear masks but customers take them off as soon as the first pint or plate reaches the table. One thing to note is most customers are actually seated at the places I go to. Most places in Korea don't like people standing around the bar like you see in the U.S. or UK, so customer density usually isn't too high. Koreans also have a strong tendency to order food when drinking, which further necessitates seating. When I'm out drinking, the only thing I'm worried about is if the people I'm with have the 'rona. Buddies have been pretty good about self-quarantining if they've been out of the country or to a known hotspot.

Nightclubs with dance floors are the exception; they get people standing in close proximity who have to get very close if they want to hear each other.

As a side note, back in the late 90s I once was shepherding a U.S.-based field service engineer around as we were demonstrating GPS to the ROK Army and our local reps invited us to the night club in the basement of our hotel. The FSE said that was the loudest thing he had ever experienced, and that included a Led Zeppelin concert he went to in the 70s.

Cheers,
CB

[sPzAbt653]

We need more testing.

I can't figure out the testing reasoning, maybe somebody here can help. It seems that in this area [Maryland, USA] you only get tested if you are privileged [Governor, sports figure] or if you are sick and your doctor gives you permission to get tested. The reports are that folks can carry this virus and not display any symptoms. Not always, but sometimes. Therefore, it would seem a good idea to expand this limited testing, but that would mean all of us lining up at a test station every morning on our way to work, and that's not practical.

What seems reasonable is to have a home self-test, something we can buy over-the-counter, or pick up at a Free Gov'ment Kiosk, say 20 to a box or some such. Then we can all test ourselves at reasonable intervals. Otherwise there is a large percentage of carriers that are not detected until it is too late. However, because this virus cloaks itself in material common in humans [glucose and something else that slips me at this moment] so far the tests have resulted in a high percentage of false results. This makes home testing kits not feasible.

So my brain keeps running around in circles on this issue. By the way, the flu season generally fizzles out by this time of year. Each day that passes makes it more interesting to see how this virus holds up.

[CaptBeefheart]

My buddy at Asia Times finally finished up his big East vs West piece (actually, it's just Part 1--Part 2 tomorrow). He may be a bit soft regarding China's numbers, but his macro points hold up I think. There's a lot of food for thought in there. Here it is: Why East beat West on Covid-19

No happy hour this evening as my sister-in-law's father-in-law passed away today (cancer, not Covid). I only met him at our wedding, but he seemed a nice chap. I later heard he was big in the Esperanto world, of all things.

Cheers,
CB

[sPzAbt653]

How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen.

Something else that I don't get, because apparently research on corona viruses has been going on for years in facilities around the world, yet we seem to know very little to nothing about them. I know they have different strains, but still after Sars1 and Mers I would think that somebody [WHO, CDC, FEMA] would be a little more prepared, and have a better idea as to which end of the canon to load.

[sPzAbt653]

No one her anyway is mentioning ten minutes to infect others in closed indoor environments.

It hasn't changed though, what I am referring to is the breath, not the cough or sneeze [which carry way more virus and thus easier to catch it from]. It's very interesting, because it didn't seem to make much sense when initial reports were that it was spread thru coughs and sneezes. It spread so quickly, that is a lot of coughing and sneezing! And as for surfaces, well you'd have to get a lot on your hand, and then put your hand right in your mouth, and that is more activity that we really don't see.

I guess reality is just too much for me. I'll stick with films - in Birdbox it was something seen that infects us, in The Happening it is something borne on the wind. That stuff I can understand!

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.

I went to Target today, all of the employees that I saw where wearing masks and one was sanitising the handles of the coolers. The cashier did not have the mask covering her nose and I mentioned that the mask does little good them. She said that it was hard to breathe. I told her to try a M17 gas mask from the military. She said that she heard about those from her step-father who was in the Navy.

I also noticed her accent was not from around here so I asked her where she was from. She said that she was from Alabama. So I told her where she could catch catfish but they would not eat rotten food. I also told her where she could get some good, smoked country style ribs to cook with black-eyed peas. They are leaner than ham hocks but are still very flavorable.

Deep fried catfish, hush puppies, cooked greens, hominy, peach cobbler, and pecan pie . . . [&o]

heck - it is still early here but you just made me hungry.....