OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[CaptBeefheart]

OK, we're into a larger outbreak in Korea and the number of active cases is rising (i.e. new infections are now beating cured cases). There were 79 new cases yesterday, of which 11 came in at the airport. Here's the latest news: S. Korea's virus fight in trouble amid new cluster, daily infections at 2-month high

The new cluster happened at a logistics center of Coupang, which is Korea's Amazon. The cluster was traced back to the gay club cluster of May 1 through a teacher who passed it on to a number of cram school students in Incheon. That teacher is in deep kimchi as he originally denied he had been to the gay clubs on May 1. It wouldn't surprise me if he spends some time in the clink.

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

Radio news report early today that Notre Dame University plans to resume classes this fall. The semester will begin two weeks early, in August, and end at Thanksgiving.

Another report this p.m. that Texas schools are re-opening next week.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, CB, hoping that things steady in South Korea. A flare up there (or anywhere) is a concern to all.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It would be helpful if people acted responsibly. Since some haven't, at least there'll be the benefit of getting a measure of the risks of massed outdoor activity. With many jurisdictions sending signals that professional and other sporting events may be able to resume soon, that could be vital part of our understanding of things.

From what I've seen, outdoor transmission doesn't seem to be a major threat. It's indoor gatherings (funerals, choir practices, meatpacking, assisted living) that are the real issues. Purely a guess on my part, but Lake of the Ozarks and beaches here and there, and Central Parks, probably won't be a major issue - as long as we don't have elderly or infirm people wandering through in close proximity.

It's interesting to get viewpoints from you all. The feeling where I live and work is much different than expressed here. But, then, I don't work in NYC or ride a subway or reside in an assisted living facility. In this area, people maintain the most important countermeasures (nursing homes, etc.) but seem pretty confident and at ease. Life is gradually returning to normal. Five weeks post easing, things continue to improve. There's no sense of doom or forboding about the future. There are uncertainties going forward, but the steps taken were really the only available option, under all the circumstances.

Lake of the Ozarks resort area included several bars that were jam packed, and one had a band to attract more people in to dance and carouse. Great stuff normally, but this is asking for trouble now ...

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, CB, hoping that things steady in South Korea. A flare up there (or anywhere) is a concern to all.

Thanks, CR. We have it pretty good here. No need to worry about us. They shut down schools in the Incheon area due to the the cram school teacher, but Seoul schools are still going strong. Touch wood.

Good luck to you and everyone else on this thread.

Cheers,
CB

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It would be helpful if people acted responsibly. Since some haven't, at least there'll be the benefit of getting a measure of the risks of massed outdoor activity. With many jurisdictions sending signals that professional and other sporting events may be able to resume soon, that could be vital part of our understanding of things.

From what I've seen, outdoor transmission doesn't seem to be a major threat. It's indoor gatherings (funerals, choir practices, meatpacking, assisted living) that are the real issues. Purely a guess on my part, but Lake of the Ozarks and beaches here and there, and Central Parks, probably won't be a major issue - as long as we don't have elderly or infirm people wandering through in close proximity.

It's interesting to get viewpoints from you all. The feeling where I live and work is much different than expressed here. But, then, I don't work in NYC or ride a subway or reside in an assisted living facility. In this area, people maintain the most important countermeasures (nursing homes, etc.) but seem pretty confident and at ease. Life is gradually returning to normal. Five weeks post easing, things continue to improve. There's no sense of doom or forboding about the future. There are uncertainties going forward, but the steps taken were really the only available option, under all the circumstances.

Well, there are outdoor events and outdoor events. The beach, even when a bit crowded has room, the parks, outdoor walks, hiking, I expect even outdoor dining with a bit of space is just fine. I like going to baseball games. Not that they are planning to put fans in the stands but a sporting event or outdoor concert is a long way off before I'd be comfortable. I do like the occasional visit to the racetrack and you can find space there but the handing back and forth of money and tickets? Nope, not that either

[Encircled]

I have a season ticket at Burnley FC in the Premier League.

I've no idea when I'll be back at Turf Moor watching them, and I don't think anyone does.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's interesting to get viewpoints from you all. The feeling where I live and work is much different than expressed here. But, then, I don't work in NYC or ride a subway or reside in an assisted living facility. In this area, people maintain the most important countermeasures (nursing homes, etc.) but seem pretty confident and at ease. Life is gradually returning to normal. Five weeks post easing, things continue to improve. There's no sense of doom or forboding about the future. There are uncertainties going forward, but the steps taken were really the only available option, under all the circumstances.

I think the UK is firmly in a weird space of being in a Armando Iannucci "The Thick of It" spin-off and not knowing if you should laugh or cry.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

I think someone posted this before in the other thread, which states:

But while the study “does not rule out outdoor transmission of the virus,” it notes that “among our 7,324 identified cases in China with sufficient descriptions, only one outdoor outbreak involving two cases occurred.”

It's from April, so it would be interesting if anyone has seen anything more recent on outdoor transmission: Outdoor Transmission of COVID

I don't think the great outdoors are a big danger as long as people don't get too close to each other. I've seen plenty of people hanging out at riverside parks in Seoul on weekends for the last two months. I'd say there's no reason to panic over people hanging out at beaches or lakes during Memorial Day weekend.

EDIT: Changed the quote to something more relevant and less confusing.

Cheers,
CB

Yeah, the steady drip-drip-drip of clues that outdoor group activities, within reason, may not be very risky at all has me thinking that we might see some semblance of pre-COVID activities returning in the spring, even without a vaccine. That's not to say that there won't be some things in the fall, but I think by spring we might be able to go to outdoor events in small groups, with masks, and be OK. I think fans at sporting events for 2020 is not going to happen - at least not safely. I read an article yesterday, by a sportswriter guy in Georgia, about college sports. He quoted a university official on how insane the idea of allowing anyone anywhere near the football stadiums is - because of the tailgates. Basically, that allowing reduced capacity inside is going to lead to a giant clusterf* outside, and that it'll be a nightmare. The quote included something like it being far more practical to just allow nobody inside to spectate at all, and closing off the area around the stadium.

There is also the bit about the "super spreaders" (the k value) that I posted about yesterday. I don't recall there being a way to determine who was a "super spreader" and who wasn't/won't be, but it seems plausible to me that one or more were present at that Albany, GA, funeral.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It would be helpful if people acted responsibly. Since some haven't, at least there'll be the benefit of getting a measure of the risks of massed outdoor activity. With many jurisdictions sending signals that professional and other sporting events may be able to resume soon, that could be vital part of our understanding of things.

From what I've seen, outdoor transmission doesn't seem to be a major threat. It's indoor gatherings (funerals, choir practices, meatpacking, assisted living) that are the real issues. Purely a guess on my part, but Lake of the Ozarks and beaches here and there, and Central Parks, probably won't be a major issue - as long as we don't have elderly or infirm people wandering through in close proximity.

It's interesting to get viewpoints from you all. The feeling where I live and work is much different than expressed here. But, then, I don't work in NYC or ride a subway or reside in an assisted living facility. In this area, people maintain the most important countermeasures (nursing homes, etc.) but seem pretty confident and at ease. Life is gradually returning to normal. Five weeks post easing, things continue to improve. There's no sense of doom or forboding about the future. There are uncertainties going forward, but the steps taken were really the only available option, under all the circumstances.

Well, there are outdoor events and outdoor events. The beach, even when a bit crowded has room, the parks, outdoor walks, hiking, I expect even outdoor dining with a bit of space is just fine. I like going to baseball games. Not that they are planning to put fans in the stands but a sporting event or outdoor concert is a long way off before I'd be comfortable. I do like the occasional visit to the racetrack and you can find space there but the handing back and forth of money and tickets? Nope, not that either

Yeah - the general freakout that has been happening about people at the beach and pools seems misinformed. The risks of transmission in those environments (provided the pool is outdoors) are relatively low. I'd probably be comfortable going to a large outdoor pool right now, especially one that doesn't really have a shallow area for kiddos so there'd be fewer of them and therefore fewer people in general, and would definitely be comfortable going to the beach.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

I have a season ticket at Burnley FC in the Premier League.

I've no idea when I'll be back at Turf Moor watching them, and I don't think anyone does.

The Nationals are crediting us on a pro-rated basis for every 2020 game that isn't played in front of fans, credit going towards the 2021 season. So basically, I'll be paid up for 2021 because I don't think we'll have spectators at games this year.

On top of that, they're giving us a 50% bonus credit that can be spent on single game tickets for 2021, concessions, or merchandise. Considering that my per-game face value price on a ticket is $29 and my per-beer price at the park is $11.60 (assuming prices don't change)... that 50% is more than I spent on beer and food at the park during all of 2019, including the playoffs.

So I'm pretty excited about 2021. Gonna be really hard to not buy yet another jersey from the team store, or WS memorabilia, when I've got that much credit burning a hole in my pocket.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Encircled

I have a season ticket at Burnley FC in the Premier League.

I've no idea when I'll be back at Turf Moor watching them, and I don't think anyone does.

The Nationals are crediting us on a pro-rated basis for every 2020 game that isn't played in front of fans, credit going towards the 2021 season. So basically, I'll be paid up for 2021 because I don't think we'll have spectators at games this year.

On top of that, they're giving us a 50% bonus credit that can be spent on single game tickets for 2021, concessions, or merchandise. Considering that my per-game face value price on a ticket is $29 and my per-beer price at the park is $11.60 (assuming prices don't change)... that 50% is more than I spent on beer and food at the park during all of 2019, including the playoffs.

So I'm pretty excited about 2021. Gonna be really hard to not buy yet another jersey from the team store, or WS memorabilia, when I've got that much credit burning a hole in my pocket.

Cubs haven't announced anything yet (I'm a season ticket holder), but I hope it includes something additional like that credit! That's awesome!

There's no way we're re-signing Kris Bryant, so may as well buy the fans some free beer!

[Encircled]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Encircled

I have a season ticket at Burnley FC in the Premier League.

I've no idea when I'll be back at Turf Moor watching them, and I don't think anyone does.

The Nationals are crediting us on a pro-rated basis for every 2020 game that isn't played in front of fans, credit going towards the 2021 season. So basically, I'll be paid up for 2021 because I don't think we'll have spectators at games this year.

On top of that, they're giving us a 50% bonus credit that can be spent on single game tickets for 2021, concessions, or merchandise. Considering that my per-game face value price on a ticket is $29 and my per-beer price at the park is $11.60 (assuming prices don't change)... that 50% is more than I spent on beer and food at the park during all of 2019, including the playoffs.

So I'm pretty excited about 2021. Gonna be really hard to not buy yet another jersey from the team store, or WS memorabilia, when I've got that much credit burning a hole in my pocket.

We are getting a refund for the rest of this year.

I pay for my S/T by DD, but they don't know what to do about next season as no one knows if crowds will be allowed or not.

On the plus side, the season kicks off again in three weeks so at least I can watch them play.

Over here its safe to say that its not going well.

I think I can safely say that!

[geofflambert]

About indoor vs. outdoor transmission. Proper ventilation greatly reduces TB transmission. I think the same will prove true here, though TB particles are much heavier than coronavirus and TB isn't common, but when it is present in poorly ventilated quarters it spreads quickly. I think more effort should be put into that rather than sneeze guards and the like. Asymptomatic people are spreading this and they aren't coughing or sneezing. I think getting this off of surfaces of whatever type is a low risk, just keep up the hand washing and wearing of gloves when you're out and about. Copper catalyzes oxidation of anything organic that comes into contact with it, just enough to kill bacteria, viruses and fungus. I think copper door knobs, door handles and door push plates should be de rigueur. I wouldn't even worry about food, those hooks on the virus will snag something quickly and never let loose, and when it gets to your stomach that HCl will make short work of it. Viruses (except enteroviruses such as polio) generally are not transmitted through ingestion. Many bacterial pathogens are.

The coronavirus is an RNA virus, same as influenza. That means it evolves quickly, though for unknown reasons it has been evolving somewhat slower than influenza, a very good thing. Even when we have a vaccine that more or less works, we will not eliminate the virus solely that way, unlike DNA viruses like smallpox, which can be eliminated through vaccinations. It is a relative of SARS and will not be going away. We are going to adapt to it somehow. The mortality number is hardening to around 6% of those individuals who acquire the virus and a similar number will survive but have permanent organ damage, some serious and even crippling. Some organs like the kidneys are being attacked directly by the virus and others are affected indirectly.

Although it is possible that we'll never have a vaccine that has much utility I think it highly likely that we will and that it will reduce mortality to below 1%, but that's still a heck of a lot worse than the flu. Like with the flu we will continuously need to update the vaccine. The need for testing, contact tracing and continuous collection of virus samples for analysis will not go away either. I think we can reasonably hope that vaccinations will also reduce the transmission rate especially among the asymptomatic.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

About indoor vs. outdoor transmission. Proper ventilation greatly reduces TB transmission. I think the same will prove true here, though TB particles are much heavier than coronavirus and TB isn't common, but when it is present in poorly ventilated quarters it spreads quickly. I think more effort should be put into that rather than sneeze guards and the like. Asymptomatic people are spreading this and they aren't coughing or sneezing. I think getting this off of surfaces of whatever type is a low risk, just keep up the hand washing and wearing of gloves when you're out and about. Copper catalyzes oxidation of anything organic that comes into contact with it, just enough to kill bacteria, viruses and fungus. I think copper door knobs, door handles and door push plates should be de rigueur. I wouldn't even worry about food, those hooks on the virus will snag something quickly and never let loose, and when it gets to your stomach that HCl will make short work of it. Viruses (except enteroviruses such as polio) generally are not transmitted through ingestion. Many bacterial pathogens are.

The coronavirus is an RNA virus, same as influenza. That means it evolves quickly, though for unknown reasons it has been evolving somewhat slower than influenza, a very good thing. Even when we have a vaccine that more or less works, we will not eliminate the virus solely that way, unlike DNA viruses like smallpox, which can be eliminated through vaccinations. It is a relative of SARS and will not be going away. We are going to adapt to it somehow. The mortality number is hardening to around 6% of those individuals who acquire the virus and a similar number will survive but have permanent organ damage, some serious and even crippling. Some organs like the kidneys are being attacked directly by the virus and others are affected indirectly.

Although it is possible that we'll never have a vaccine that has much utility I think it highly likely that we will and that it will reduce mortality to below 1%, but that's still a heck of a lot worse than the flu. Like with the flu we will continuously need to update the vaccine. The need for testing, contact tracing and continuous collection of virus samples for analysis will not go away either. I think we can reasonably hope that vaccinations will also reduce the transmission rate especially among the asymptomatic.

Lots of different RNA virus with varied characteristics. SARS is deadly, Ebola is really deadly, measles is wildly contagious and they can be notoriously hard to develop vaccines for. They have been working on a HIV vaccine since the 1990's and have made little progress. The knowledge seems to shift around daily but the virus may already have up to 25 variations. There is enough variation that they can tell that the primary vector for the United States was from Europe, probably Italy and that the virus is more lethal in the United States than it is in Asia. The good news is more often than not virus mutate to become less, or sometimes completely, non-lethal. Sometimes, the opposite happens as in 1918-1919

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It would be helpful if people acted responsibly. Since some haven't, at least there'll be the benefit of getting a measure of the risks of massed outdoor activity. With many jurisdictions sending signals that professional and other sporting events may be able to resume soon, that could be vital part of our understanding of things.

From what I've seen, outdoor transmission doesn't seem to be a major threat. It's indoor gatherings (funerals, choir practices, meatpacking, assisted living) that are the real issues. Purely a guess on my part, but Lake of the Ozarks and beaches here and there, and Central Parks, probably won't be a major issue - as long as we don't have elderly or infirm people wandering through in close proximity.

It's interesting to get viewpoints from you all. The feeling where I live and work is much different than expressed here. But, then, I don't work in NYC or ride a subway or reside in an assisted living facility. In this area, people maintain the most important countermeasures (nursing homes, etc.) but seem pretty confident and at ease. Life is gradually returning to normal. Five weeks post easing, things continue to improve. There's no sense of doom or forboding about the future. There are uncertainties going forward, but the steps taken were really the only available option, under all the circumstances.

Well, there are outdoor events and outdoor events. The beach, even when a bit crowded has room, the parks, outdoor walks, hiking, I expect even outdoor dining with a bit of space is just fine. I like going to baseball games. Not that they are planning to put fans in the stands but a sporting event or outdoor concert is a long way off before I'd be comfortable. I do like the occasional visit to the racetrack and you can find space there but the handing back and forth of money and tickets? Nope, not that either

I've also grown to believe it'll be rare to transmit this in outdoor situations, but it might just depend on what else goes on around that outdoor setting.

Many of the Spring break kids in Florida that made the news did get infected with Coronavirus, and whether it was on the beach, in the beach side bars/cafes or in the cars, planes and buses on the way to and fro, who knows? When people crowd it's not only where they are it's how the arrive and leave, it's where they use the toilet, it's where they get food and drink. These are the places I suspect that people will be transmitting this over the summer months.

[Zorch]

'Evolution of pandemic coronavirus outlines path from animals to humans' https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 161221.htm

'The virus's ability to change makes it likely that new human coronaviruses will arise'

A team of scientists studying the origin of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that has caused the COVID-19 pandemic, found that it was especially well-suited to jump from animals to humans by shapeshifting as it gained the ability to infect human cells.

Conducting a genetic analysis, researchers from Duke University, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the University of Texas at El Paso and New York University confirmed that the closest relative of the virus was a coronavirus that infects bats. But that virus's ability to infect humans was gained through exchanging a critical gene fragment from a coronavirus that infects a scaly mammal called a pangolin, which made it possible for the virus to infect humans.

The researchers report that this jump from species-to-species was the result of the virus's ability to bind to host cells through alterations in its genetic material. By analogy, it is as if the virus retooled the key that enables it to unlock a host cell's door -- in this case a human cell. In the case of SARS-CoV-2, the "key" is a spike protein found on the surface of the virus. Coronaviruses use this protein to attach to cells and infect them.

"Very much like the original SARS that jumped from bats to civets, or MERS that went from bats to dromedary camels, and then to humans, the progenitor of this pandemic coronavirus underwent evolutionary changes in its genetic material that enabled it to eventually infect humans," said Feng Gao, M.D., professor of medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Duke University School of Medicine and corresponding author of the study publishing online May 29 in the journal Science Advances.

Gao and colleagues said tracing the virus's evolutionary pathway will help deter future pandemics arising from the virus and possibly guide vaccine research.

The researchers found that typical pangolin coronaviruses are too different from SARS-CoV-2 for them to have directly caused the human pandemic.

However, they do contain a receptor-binding site -- a part of the spike protein necessary to bind to the cell membrane -- that is important for human infection. This binding site makes it possible to affix to a cell surface protein that is abundant on human respiratory and intestinal epithelial cells, endothelial cell and kidney cells, among others.

While the viral ancestor in the bat is the most closely related coronavirus to SARS-CoV-2, its binding site is very different, and on its own cannot efficiently infect human cells.

SARS-CoV-2 appears to be a hybrid between bat and pangolin viruses to obtain the "key" necessary receptor-binding site for human infection.

"There are regions of the virus with a very high degree of similarity of amino acid sequences among divergent coronaviruses that infect humans, bats and pangolins, suggesting that these viruses are under similar host selection and may have made the ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 able to readily jump from these animals to humans," said lead co-author Xiaojun Li from Duke.

"People had already looked at the coronavirus sequences sampled from pangolins that we discuss in our paper, however, the scientific community was still divided on whether they played a role in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2," said study co-lead author Elena Giorgi, staff scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

"In our study, we demonstrated that indeed SARS-CoV-2 has a rich evolutionary history that included a reshuffling of genetic material between bat and pangolin coronavirus before it acquired its ability to jump to humans," Giorgi said.

In addition to Gao, Li and Giorgi, study authors include, Manukumar Honnayakanahalli Marichannegowda, Brian Foley, Chuan Xiao, Xiang-Peng Kong, Yue Chen, S. Gnanakaran and Bette Korber.

Story Source:
Materials provided by Duke University Medical Center.

[sPzAbt653]

Top Italian doctor's claim virus 'no longer exists' sparks controversy

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir ... -1.4963181

"In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, the capital of the northern Lombardy region ...

but ...

"Pending scientific evidence to support the thesis that the virus has disappeared, I would invite those who say they are sure of it not to confuse Italians," health ministry undersecretary Sandra Zampa said in a statement.

[fcooke]

I like to learn. And this thing will be a bad one to learn about. But I hope researchers figure out why NYC was hit so hard while other cities like Cairo seemed to have done OK. Anyway, stay safe and I am about to go outside and use my hands.

[Canoerebel]

While seated solo at a table in the mall food court today, eating a sandwich and reading a book, I realized that my level of concern over the pandemic is negligible now. When things really heated up, back in late February and March, I felt a personal level of concern that topped out at about 3, on a scale of 1 to 10. That "peak" mostly represented uncertainty, as news reports nationwide and worldwide were alarming and there was a high level of "unknown." What might happen? That my concern level, even then, was pretty low reflected that I don't live in an urban area, didn't really know anybody personally affected by the virus, and that me and my family largely don't have underlying health conditions that might make us particularly susceptible. There is still a basic level of alertness and wariness that will exist until the virus is eradicated or essentially "residual."