Tyronec vs BrianG. 12.03

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: joelmar

HLYA
Interesting. Personally I have faith in Tyronecs ability in WITE never to have his ballz cut off at the base. Tyronec is more than capable of seeing a threat when they are present and would never fall into that trap. As for letting the Germans grow big ballz.... Well I can only say the Soviets are in no position not to let that happen. Let the growth continue!

I wasn't talking about someone in particular More general game philosophy. IMO one can take a gambit when the situation calls for it, when he has a huge advantage or is in a desperate situation. Ok, the image of the balls cut clean was a bit extreme, but what I meant is that an operation that needs sizable assets and gets no result is a loss in my mind. So a gambit to me is not only when you may get your balls cut, but also when you might make an effort and reap no reward.

But I agree Tyronec is quite capable of handling the situation. I also agree that he seems to clearly have the initiative in this game and is in position to keep it for a long while yet. So the gambit you propose may work for him. In fact, I'll be quite interested to see how it goes if he tries it.

That is the beauty in this en-devour. Everyone has made very valid points and no one is wrong with their assessment. It really boils down to the player, the moment of opportunity, and if the moment is seized upon. I am sure Tyronec will weigh the situation and BrianG will too. We will be in for some nail biting action soon enough.

[joelmar]

I agree 100% [:)]

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

I think it is a bad idea to make comparisons with old versions precisely because the rail supply modifier penalty was so drastically increased. So whereas in old versions of the game Baku was at least a regular possibility, now it has ceased to be. Examples are the games of Stef78 where he could take Baku in old versions, but just found his supply disappearing at the Terek river after the change in the rail supply modifier.

Remember Baku is further in rail repair than the Volga and with absolutely no chance of loops to protect from partisan supply with less manpower to capture. So the question is why would you choose Baku over the Volga? Shortening lines might be one answer. I would rate taking more manpower as a bigger gain.

As a very new returnee, I don't yet have a handle on the changes, so I defer on the supply point. I will have to read Stef's AARs if they are still accessible.

In case I was misunderstood, I was not trying to argue that it would be wrong not to take out the Caucasus, but simply that it was probably the better choice. With the changes, I have to defer to others about where the balance lies. That said HLYA makes a strong case IMHO and I have learned to trust his judgement, and to fear it because he is the only person to defeat me other than Michael T in about 50 pvp games either playing solo or as 1 of the Pro's. At least, I believe that this is the case - humble apologies to any other successful opponent if old age has given me a selective memory. I hope to have the pleasure of playing Telemecus and/or joelmar at some point tho' before I become completely senile.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
As a new returnee, I don't yet have a handle on the changes, so I defer to you on the supply point. I will have to read Stef's AARs.

It is wonderful to see someone we know from old back again to the game and with their enthusiasm! The two stef AARs worth comparing (from memory) were against Stelteck and frogmarc.

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
In case I was misunderstood, I was not trying to argue that it would be wrong not to take out the Caucasus, but that it was probably the better choice. With the changes, I have to defer to others about where the balance lies.

Although it has been lost in the old posts it might be worth looking back on one of the old posts here 138 fb.asp?m=4807559 and in particular the map it refers to in the library of WitE resources containing clusters of manpower production in green. Or even see "To Baku or not to Baku?" in post 1148 here fb.asp?m=4637964 . The point for me is not to consider Baku or the Caucasus in isolation but relative to the benefits and costs of action elsewhere. And I have yet to see a reason given why the Caucasus would be relatively better than them.

[tyronec]

Thanks for all your contributions, lots to ponder over.
For now I will continue with a moderate push South, one priority is to cut the rail East of Stalingrad to block rail transfer of units in and out of the Caucasus, will then make a judgement on what to do.
This turn I can see 2 Cav and 27 Infantry units in the area, plus he has reinforced the VVS.

MUD in the North and Center.
Advance a couple of hexes around Stalingrad.
Am 11 hexes beyond of my rail head in the South.

[tyronec]

Although it has been lost in the old posts it might be worth looking back on one of the old posts here 138 fb.asp?m=4807559 and in particular the map it refers to in the library of WitE resources containing clusters of manpower production in green. Or even see "To Baku or not to Baku?" in post 1148 here fb.asp?m=4637964 . The point for me is not to consider Baku or the Caucasus in isolation but relative to the benefits and costs of action elsewhere. And I have yet to see a reason given why the Caucasus would be relatively better than them.

Had another look at the supply system.
The light blue is what was my target for '42.
The dark blue is where I am by T50.
The yellow line represents roughly 85% Supplies for Mid '42, with the formula producing a strong bias towards the South. It demonstrates that going for Kazan or much in that direction is really going to stretch supplies whereas Baku and the South are in a 'good' supply area. There is much better logic for heading NE in '43 when rail supplies are much improved.

[tyronec]

MUD in the North and South, forecast wrong again !

Center. Relieve the pocketed Panzer, decide to leave it in position, the weather may determine if that was a good idea or not !

Stalingrad. The forecast was for CLEAR (I presume the Soviet forecasters are in collusion with the Axis ones) so Brian had pulled back accordingly. Allowed me to advance 3 hexes and make a couple of pockets.

Caucasus. Soviets are defending Krasnodar and the Kuma river line. Have got a few units down to the Europe zone. The situation is still very unclear here but can hopefully cut the rail line at Stalingrad next turn.

[tyronec]

MUD in the North and South again, not had luck with the weather in May/June with just one CLEAR in the North.
Having said that it is difficult for the Soviets to defend against and they have conceded a lot of ground in case of good weather and a big pocket, so am getting terrain for free.

Soviets abandon the Don and Stalingrad falls, clearing my rail line. They have a lot of units East of Stalingrad, could be just Rifle Brigades and low TOE Cavalry.

Get to the Mountains in the South. I thought about advancing to the Kuma river but can only reach it with a couple of Mot. divisions and have no idea how strong the Soviet units are.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: tyronec

MUD in the North and South again, not had luck with the weather in May/June with just one CLEAR in the North.
Having said that it is difficult for the Soviets to defend against and they have conceded a lot of ground in case of good weather and a big pocket, so am getting terrain for free.

Soviets abandon the Don and Stalingrad falls, clearing my rail line. They have a lot of units East of Stalingrad, could be just Rifle Brigades and low TOE Cavalry.

Get to the Mountains in the South. I thought about advancing to the Kuma river but can only reach it with a couple of Mot. divisions and have no idea how strong the Soviet units are.

OOB?

[tyronec]

Last turn of mixed weather, just MUD in the South.

North. A few attacks, trying to tidy up the front line and get them dug in better so I can send more Infantry to join the main offensives. The Finns take one hex and are now across the river in force. My Panzer Corps took 2 hexes below Moscow, want to push them back to the Moskva river if I can.
Am weak below the Oka but am no longer dependent on that rail line

Center. Double pincer in the Saratov area. Think I have probably advanced too far with both pincers, in particular PG2 is too exposed. Should have kept a Panzer Corps back. However will cause the Soviets some problems too so will see how much damage they do in return.
I have to commend Brian on his troop placement, thought I was going to be able to make a pocket for a while but first he had a heavy stack in the rough hex below and W of Saratov, and then when I bypassed that there were more stopping me from getting across the Medved river.

Stalingrad. Have cut the Caucasus rail line which is good.
Have one FBD driving North and another NW to make a link up with the one supporting PG2.

Caucasus. Advance into contact. I have 4 possible goals:
Cut the rail line by the Caspian sea, should make guarding my rails easier to get rid of the Soviet rail. Probably need an HQB further along to do this.
Drive to Baku.
Cut the rail to Krasnodar, as close to Baku as possible, and maybe isolate those troops.
Frontal attack on Krasnodar.
Will see how things go over the next few turns and then decide what to do.

Soviet OOB hits 5M, has been growing steadily the past few turns and nothing I could do about it. Germany has 300k in the pool and lots of armaments, just short of panzers.

[tyronec]

Start of turn.

Soviets have cut off lead units of PG2, definitely pushed forwards too far. Will have to pull back my left pincer and cut through with PG1 & PG3. The 4 Guard Cav around Saratov have completely disappeared.

Heavy losses overall during the Soviet turn, 17k Axis for 13k Soviets. They seem to be able to get parity even when attacking at moderate odds. Not sure how I can stabalise things North of Moscow as they are tying down a lot of troops there. That is my main concern, it is looking difficult to make pockets and the attrition war has begun in earnest. Though expect I can still take a lot of terrain in '42.

[tyronec]

End of turn.

Some counter attacks in the North but overall have lost a few hexes.

Saratov area. Manage to pocket 22 units though am not at all confident of it holding. Soviets have a lot of avenues of attack against 6th Army and PG2, and still only spotted two of their Guard Cav Corps.

Beat off the attack to Stalingrad from the East, think am strong enough to hold out here.

Caucasus. Soviets surprise me by abandoning the Kuma and pulling back to the next river.
I do a small attack towards Krasnodar, need to keep some good troops here for now and might as well test the defences. Am set up to cut the Caspian sea rail line next turn if they don't protect it, that would reduce supplies to the Soviets threatening Stalingrad.

Heavy losses for both sides, I get 3:1 during my turn without any surrenders as against worse than even during the Soviet turn. Seems attacking works.

[redrum68]

Nice pocket. Are those losses (close to 2 to 1 overall) about average at this point in the game? Or is that mostly just because of all the soviet attacks this turn?

[HardLuckYetAgain]

You are doing fine. Just remember the Soviets are coming off mud turns and their troops are pretty rested. They will get pretty decent results attacking your tired troops that have been on constant movement. It will feel bad at the moment but when things get rolling the Germans have the upper hand still in 42. I also love it when I play an aggressive Soviet players catching them with their pants down on many occasions. I would recommend smaller quicker pockets though up north.

In the Caucasus it is still looking pretty good. The more he puts down here the better for you up north. Looking forward to seeing what you will be doing here.

Good luck to you.

[tyronec]

Nice pocket. Are those losses (close to 2 to 1 overall) about average at this point in the game? Or is that mostly just because of all the soviet attacks this turn?

We have only had two turns of CLEAR so far in '42, both times Soviets did over 10k damage at around 1:1.
This is a new period of the game for me so I don't know what is normal.

[chaos45]

Keep in mind German replacement rates goes up in 1942, as well you are now getting Hiwis from soviet manpower that has repaired, and your getting more and more returned disabled to your ranks.

You can afford much higher losses in 1942 as the Germans and stay in the game, I don't remember the exact amount plus they have messed with the formulas here and there...but you should replace something like 25k+ axis manpower a week in 1942. Now you start to lose 30k+ your probably net losing alittle combat power each week, so you need to be killing/surrendering a lot of soviets.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Keep in mind German replacement rates goes up in 1942, as well you are now getting Hiwis from soviet manpower that has repaired, and your getting more and more returned disabled to your ranks.

You can afford much higher losses in 1942 as the Germans and stay in the game, I don't remember the exact amount plus they have messed with the formulas here and there...but you should replace something like 25k+ axis manpower a week in 1942. Now you start to lose 30k+ your probably net losing alittle combat power each week, so you need to be killing/surrendering a lot of soviets.

I know in 42 I don't care about the losses as the Germans as long as I keep the surrender wagon rolling. Once Tyronec gets that surrender wagon rolling the Soviets are going to be in trouble. Yes, the Soviets may break the first couple of pockets but with each passing pocket the pressure will be less if done correctly.

[tyronec]

AGN struggles on, just about holding the line.

Center. To my surprise the Soviets retreat rather than trying to break the pocket. On reflection it may have been the right decision as I might just have caught more units. We follow up as fast as possible, Panzers in the lead.
My main hope for taking Engles/Saratov is a right hook, the Soviets are well entrenched behind the river South of the cities. Would expect them to pull back this turn as looks high risk to hang on and that has been Brian's usual approach.

Have cut the Caspian rail line top and bottom so those red circled units are now a long way from supply, should clear the threat to the Stalingrad rail line.

Caucasus. Soviets abandon the Malka river and pull back to the Terek. Am trying to threaten their line over as long a front as possible to stretch the defenders. Cut the rail going North with a raid, should be able to close it properly in the next turn or so. I estimate about 60 Infantry, 1 Cav Corps and a Tank unit in the area. Of that about 30 units are West of Sukhumi and I think not going to do much where they are, being pinned down by one German Corps and a bunch of Allies.

Good turn for me, 101k Soviet losses and their OOB goes down for the first time since about T24.

[tyronec]

Usual slugging match for AGN, lose a couple of hexes. Two Guard Cav. Corps and a few Rifle Corps have turned up so things are only going to get worse, but am glad to see them up here rather than in the Center.

Soviets held their line north of Engles. Manage two pockets which will likely be broken.
Manage to push the Saratov garrison (including a Guard Cav. corps) out and into a pocket.

Below Engles they pulled back, do a Rommel style right hand hook which should block supply for the Soviets East of the Volga. I think they are probably too thin on units to counter all these threats at the same time.
Soviets pulling back from East of Stalingrad as expected.

Caucasus. I did a lot of air supply last turn and am able to break through the Soviet line and take Makhachkala. Soviets had two 3 level forts below the city but take one out with no garrison. The other has 2 Guard Rifle Corps but that should disrupt their road block. As usual am a bit over extended and did a mis-click which didn't help (selecting stacks in different in WITE2 so playing both at the same time am always getting this wrong) but think I have enough to hold the bridgehead over the Terek. The Soviets around Grozny are going to be very short of supplies and the ones against the Caspian are temporarily isolated.

Think there should be good chances of pocketing something in the Caucasus by cutting the rail line West of Baku over the next several turns, have got threats against it in 3 different places.

[Telemecus]

TBH I am shocked there is not a line of forts digging in south of Makhachkala instead of just some airfields. It is the easiest corridor to defend and perfectly predictable. There do seem to be a couple of rifle corps there. That avenue should be bottled up with high for levels by them and not left open as it is now. Yes the Soviets are stretched - but it is a very small manpower and unit commitment compared to the value of Baku to keep that avenue closed.