OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

This was an amazing read. How many have been dealing with this kind of stuff who aren’t counted anywhere?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

I read an article today about "long haulers" - people who have COVID symptoms for months, and may even test negative because the virus isn't active in their swabbed area but is active in a "reservoir organ."

My mother may be one of those. She was on day 12 the other day and still running a daily fever of just under 100. She also tested negative, but the test was done on day 10 or 11 of symptoms and there isn't really anything else that she could have that would have her with a fever for that length of time.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

This was an amazing read. How many have been dealing with this kind of stuff who aren’t counted anywhere?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

I read an article today about "long haulers" - people who have COVID symptoms for months, and may even test negative because the virus isn't active in their swabbed area but is active in a "reservoir organ."

My mother may be one of those. She was on day 12 the other day and still running a daily fever of just under 100. She also tested negative, but the test was done on day 10 or 11 of symptoms and there isn't really anything else that she could have that would have her with a fever for that length of time.

Watching what's offered on TV constantly will make you pretty ill .... [8|]

[fcooke]

I pretty much avoid the TV at all costs these days, though my wife seems addicted. Have been catching up on movies and documentaries on the PC. Watched one on the worst US maritime disaster ever - the loss of the riverboat Sultana. Bringing home Union POWs at the end of the Civil War. The guys were in rough shape from captivity in places like Andersonville. The ships boilers exploded at 2am and the paddle wheeler caught fire. Something like 1200 people were lost (records were, shall we say, not so great). I had never heard of the event before. Seems like there was a bunch of mismanagement and bribery involved in the whole fiasco. Feel horrible that these guys fought, were captured, were POWs, and many dying on their way home in the end. That's a lot of bad luck.

But at least I learned some history and didn't have to watch any of the current stuff being broadcast on TV.

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Aren't travel restrictions the one thing that for sure prevent the spread?

Restrictions will surely stop the spread, but to move forward with international commerce I think relatively safe nations should establish bilateral agreements to let their residents (not just citizens, of course, thinking of myself) travel without undergoing 14-day quarantines. Taiwan, Vietnam, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Japan and maybe a few others in this region would make sense for Korea to sign agreements with. Who knows when a vaccine will be available?

Cheers,
CB

[fcooke]

Agreed. 14 day quarantines will kill travel. And I guess if you want to be completely safe you could never speak to another human again or leave your your house. Hopefully that statement is not considered political. May never be a vaccine. But hopefully there is. But much like the flu vaccine - they may never get it right every year.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Aren't travel restrictions the one thing that for sure prevent the spread?

Restrictions will surely stop the spread, but to move forward with international commerce I think relatively safe nations should establish bilateral agreements to let their residents (not just citizens, of course, thinking of myself) travel without undergoing 14-day quarantines. Taiwan, Vietnam, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Japan and maybe a few others in this region would make sense for Korea to sign agreements with. Who knows when a vaccine will be available?

Cheers,
CB

My Dr. son-in-law repeated what has been said here - a fully effective vaccine has never been produced and thoroughly tested and approved in less than five years. Since he has been in charge of clinical trials for major hospitals, he knows these things.

So we come to the conundrum - how much risk to accept - and that will vary from person to person. I am retired and financially secure so I can wait longer than workers with no savings. It is not a political question, it is a problem that requires flexible solutions to work for the greatest number of people. As long as we are prepared to deal quickly and efficiently with new outbreaks, we should be OK with opening up now with the distancing kept in mind wherever possible.

[Canoerebel]

I'm continuing to watch the numbers as avidly as ever. It's been a fascinating journey - one that really seemed to begin in late January. Someday I hope to read in depth, intelligent analysis of how outbreaks occurred at various funerals, choir practices, etc.

Yesterday, my church had indoor services for the first time since the first Sunday in March. The previous four weeks, we'd had outdoor services with most people seated in cars but perhaps 30 in chairs on the lawn. I was comfortable with that, but coming indoors raises the stakes, given the number of outbreaks have been associated with choir practices and similar events. Seats were well spaced, but much of our congregation is 50 and older. Surprisingly few wore masks - less than 10%. The service was well attended, which also came as a bit of a surprise.

The thought of an outbreak beginning right here is sobering. It would be a disastrous to have one start here because of something we did. I'll be watching carefully over the next few weeks to see how things go. I think I'll also spend an hour moving chairs a bit further apart. Overall, though, it was great to be together again and there's a strong sense that this was a prudent next step. But there's always that "what if?"

[Canoerebel]

On Sunday, 16 states had no reported mortality. Today, at the moment, 17 haven't. That's noteworthy, because a few weeks ago, only a handful of states didn't have a reported death on any given day.

The numbers are down considerably but no doubt they'll continue to ocillate. For one thing, US mortality numbers always dip over the weekend because so many county health offices are closed. Then, there's a compensating rise early in the workweek.

All of this is interesting because so many states have relaxed countermeasures (to screaming headlines awhile back) and there have been so many mass gatherings (Lake of the Ozarks, protests, beaches, parks, etc.). To this point, the huge increase in outdoor activity doesn't seem to have resulted in spikes. Again, there is the strong sense that outdoor transmission is rare. It makes me wonder - if there aren't proven spikes resulting from the mass gatherings outside, does that mean sporting events with partial (or even full) attendance is possible/prudent?


Indoor spreading continues to be an issue. Our local courthouse is closed because of a rash of positives there.

[CaptBeefheart]

Our pastor and presumably the board divided things up into four 40-minute services (from a one-hour service pre-Covid) for better distancing and there are some key rules, like you must wear masks other than when taking communion. I also don't think there are any hymnals, as singing is a known vector. We actually haven't gone since one of the rules is "don't come if you've been in a hospital in the last 14 days," and, well, the missus works in a hospital. The pastor is still doing video-recorded services each week so no worries (I've even contributed a bit to the readings).

CR: I'd be a bit worried on the lack of masks at your indoor services. Would it work to hand them out at the door?

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, complimentary masks and sanitizer are available.

While most food service staff are wearing masks, probably less than 10% of patrons are. Except where required, they are infrequently used and, then, mostly by the elderly. It's rare to see a younger person wearing one. Once in a blue moon, a young mom and her children will be wearing them.

Last week, a lady who I've known for years stopped to chat in the food court. She's a gracious, pleasant, soft-spoken person. Her mask made it basically impossible to understand her.

My wife wears a mask at work and hates it, as do her co-workers. In part, this is due to the heat and high humidity. She feels like wearing them has potential health risks that outweigh the benefits. If she could, she'd opt out. Given southern heat and humidity, I empathize with her.

[fcooke]

I feel for her. With my allergies I can barely breathe with one on even for short periods of time (damn dust mites). Could never wear one for a shift. up here the use is mixed. we're not high density so people can keep distance. we had friends come up to visit from NYC on Sunday and they did not find the need to wear masks, and they live in the epicenter of this thing. I think people are coming around to the wash your hands and don't visit nursing homes state of mind. but i am not a medical professional. My sis looks after people in nursing homes and they have not lost a client, so I suspect some of best practices has influenced this. just an opinion.

[obvert]

Interesting new studies on the different theories around silent spread of the virus. Asymptomatic people who test positive are thought now not likely to pass the virus to others, or if so much much less than those either with symptoms or those that are pre-symptomatic. A read on it here.

Coronavirus: Asymptomatic transmission still an 'open question' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52977940

[obvert]

UK will allow opening of non-essential shops from Monday. Restaurants and (more importantly for most) pubs from July 4.

I hear infections are rising in some areas of the states even as more areas open up. The outdoor protests might not be the only cause but I’m sure they are a factor, especially where people trying to make it home peacefully are kettled, crowded and tied up on the ground for hours or sent to the pokey.

My mom tells me Portland is still not opening up completely. Arizona seems to be having an uptick which begs the questions of whether summer and hot weather actually limit transmission. South Carolina on the rise too.

A friend in LA says they’re still worried as numbers just slowly rise and more is set to open there. They’re traveling to OR to visit family and don’t want of course to pass anything on so are being extra careful right now.

We’ve been seeing friends here and things are almost feeling normal in the neighborhood at least.

[fcooke]

London without pubs....that's akin to be forced to go shopping with the wife for shoes. [:'(]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Interesting new studies on the different theories around silent spread of the virus. Asymptomatic people who test positive are thought now not likely to pass the virus to others, or if so much much less than those either with symptoms or those that are pre-symptomatic. A read on it here.

Coronavirus: Asymptomatic transmission still an 'open question' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52977940

One WHO official came out with that report that asymptomatic transmission is rare and a few hours later another WHO official walked it back a lot, saying it is unclear to what extent it happens. I think it would depend where the virus is setting up shop in the body - the "carrier organ"- they call it. If it is in the gut it probably only comes out in the toilet, but if it is in the lungs or sinuses, it could come out in the breath. And while asymptomatic, the virus concentration expelled is probably relatively small, allowing healthy immune systems to handle it without showing the disease.

[Nomad]

Here is an interesting article on how long coronavirus survives on surfaces

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-surv ... 00930.html

[sPzAbt653]

Coronavirus cases on the rise in California, several other states
https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus- ... tes-report

Nearly three months since the U.S. declared a national emergency over the new coronavirus, some states are reporting a rise in new cases as they lift restrictions meant to slow the virus’s spread.

But due to increases in the number of tests being performed, isn't this inaccurate [or 'fake news'] reporting ?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Coronavirus cases on the rise in California, several other states
https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus- ... tes-report

Nearly three months since the U.S. declared a national emergency over the new coronavirus, some states are reporting a rise in new cases as they lift restrictions meant to slow the virus’s spread.

But due to increases in the number of tests being performed, isn't this inaccurate [or 'fake news'] reporting ?

Hard to tell what's going on - I heard reports of the opposite - that many states have cut back on testing because they don't want to know bad news as they reopen. It's contradictory info like that which made me stop looking at stats - I no longer have faith in them. We'll know there's a problem when hospital ICU beds are full, as in at least one city in Alabama.

[sPzAbt653]

Yeah, makes sense. The only stat I've put any weight on is number of deaths in my state [Maryland]. In March-May it was 50-70 daily, and for the last 2 weeks its been 25-45. Still too high for me to 'let down my guard', as they say, and I feel the reduction is mostly due to mutation and/or time of year/flu season ending. It's so difficult to figure all this out on our own. I wish all the hundreds of millions that has been spent on virus research would have produced something more than 'stay home'. I hope they [CDC, WHO, Wuhan Facility and all the others that took money for research] are all held accountable at some point, but I expect that the typical disappointment will be the only outcome in this corrupt and inefficient world.

[Zorch]

Antibody testing suggests immune response post-COVID is very variable
'And many of the tests available to the public produced variable results.'

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06 ... -variable/