OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[RangerJoe]

Whining and overpaid adults playing a game. I would rather watch college or high school games.

[sPzAbt653]

I'm from Baltimore so if baseball never ever starts again it won't bother me a bit [:)]

Bars opened up in some areas around here and I happily sat in one for nine hours on Saturday and plan on more of the same this weekend. I feel sorry for the bartenders and waitresses that have to wear masks their whole shift. Many of them just let them hang down.

Meanwhile, the virus has created even more neurological problems than looting - now some folks are tearing down statues of war hero's who were on the losing side, and criminals are getting more freedom as police are being restricted in their ability to defend themselves. I hope they get a vaccine soon !

[RangerJoe]

People should respect the US veterans and not tear down their statutes.

[mind_messing]

@sPzAbt653

This thread was intended to be apolitical. Your comments in post #242 are not. Kindly edit your post to remove them.

[RangerJoe]

Good news for hamsters:

The scientists were able to isolate more than 1,000 distinct antibody-producing immune cells, called B cells, each of which produced a distinct anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody. The team obtained the antibody gene sequences from these B cells so that they could produce the antibodies in the laboratory. By screening these antibodies individually, the team identified several that . . . could also protect hamsters against heavy viral exposure.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 140840.htm

[CaptBeefheart]

Luckily the baseball season here in Korea (the KBO) is continuing apace and there have been zero Covid transmissions. Of course, in the stands there are only cheerleaders. Same with soccer (K-League). In the U.S., there doesn't appear to be any sense of "let's play for the benefit of the people, who need us badly right now." It's purely a business. I could be wrong, but I'd like to think the baseball players of my youth would have stepped up to the plate (no pun intended).

Cheers,
CB

[RangerJoe]

I described them previously. I hope that I do not need to repeat it.

[fcooke]

The Baltimore BB team is a mess....not sure how long it will take to come back. Used to be a great franchise. But that stadium/setup is the best one I have ever been to (granted only been to maybe about a half dozen). Both the NY 'new' stadiums are bleh, though the Mets beat the Yanks on that front. A better place to see a game. But neither approaches Baltimore in terms of design. Baltimore is just experience (if they had a real team). I'm partial to Fenway (Red Sox fan), and there you have it.

[fcooke]

I think the player's union and the owners are causing most of the grief. I think most of today's players (not all) would get out there and play, just like most of the legacy players would have.

[Canoerebel]

It's hard to get a bead on things. The news is jam-full of reports about many states experiencing record-setting virus numbers, etc. This doesn't seem to correlate to mortality numbers, which are dropping (slowly but steadily) in most states and in the country (as noted yesterday, there might be a lag between new case onset and eventual deaths). But a prominent elected official today said that there are only 11 counties in the US experiencing an increase at the moment. That is utterly at odds with the news narrative and confounding to the poor layman, unsure what's happening. Either the politician is delusional or the media is. In my corner of my state, things continue going well - cases up somewhat, hospitalizations up slightly, mortality at the same number (15, total) that it was many weeks ago.

[RangerJoe]

Maybe more of the cases now are the younger people getting it which is actually what is needed to let this pretty much die out. I know that might sound weird but that is what herd immunity is all about.

[fcooke]

The data just seems bad. no politics here, since I am not picking a side, but pols and media have completely helped to screw this one up.

[RangerJoe]

But I think that some people are finally get the message "When you are sick, stay home!" How many people would say "I am a good worker, I go to work even when I have a cold or the flu" when they are actually spreading it and should stay home and not share it.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe more of the cases now are the younger people getting it which is actually what is needed to let this pretty much die out. I know that might sound weird but that is what herd immunity is all about.

Someone did a projection based on current numbers who have already been infected and survived to get the current level of (hoped for) immunity. They then extrapolated on the death toll so far multiplied by the factor needed to get to herd immunity level. They did some reductions to account for fewer high-risk population left, and better experience in dealing with outbreaks but they still ended up with an estimate of 800K deaths in the US. Just letting herd immunity happen does not seem to be a good strategy.

That study was just before the announcement of the new findings that a common immuno-suppressing drug has shown effectiveness in reducing the damage the disease causes when it creates an auto-immune response. That should help reduce the incidence of deaths and debilitating damage. So the strategy to reduce spread of the virus while finding drugs and vaccines that work has its first really hopeful win.

No one in the science community seems to be concerned that the data coming out of the study were fudged, unlike the confusion around hydroxychloroquine. But they have learned their lesson and are cautioning people not to start taking the new drug without advice from their doctor.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's hard to get a bead on things. The news is jam-full of reports about many states experiencing record-setting virus numbers, etc. This doesn't seem to correlate to mortality numbers, which are dropping (slowly but steadily) in most states and in the country (as noted yesterday, there might be a lag between new case onset and eventual deaths). But a prominent elected official today said that there are only 11 counties in the US experiencing an increase at the moment. That is utterly at odds with the news narrative and confounding to the poor layman, unsure what's happening. Either the politician is delusional or the media is. In my corner of my state, things continue going well - cases up somewhat, hospitalizations up slightly, mortality at the same number (15, total) that it was many weeks ago.

Maybe it is one county in each of the 20 states with rising Covid rates? I think someone may be splitting hairs because the overall trend seems to be up in many places. So, yesterday I heard some economic indicators. Movie theaters are still at 1 % of pre-covid levels but air transportation is up, retail shopping is up and public transportation is up. Not particularly high but maybe 25% of pre-covid numbers. So folks are getting out, and folks are still getting sick. Not sure what the thinking is but if the plan is to ignore until it goes away it is clearly not working. Covid will be a major drag on the economy for a long, long time. I feel the plan, if there is a plan, is to just let it go on until there is herd immunity. If you look at where Europe is, compared to where the United States is, we should be ashamed of ourselves. 4% of the worlds population and 25% of the worlds Covid deaths.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's hard to get a bead on things. The news is jam-full of reports about many states experiencing record-setting virus numbers, etc. This doesn't seem to correlate to mortality numbers, which are dropping (slowly but steadily) in most states and in the country (as noted yesterday, there might be a lag between new case onset and eventual deaths). But a prominent elected official today said that there are only 11 counties in the US experiencing an increase at the moment. That is utterly at odds with the news narrative and confounding to the poor layman, unsure what's happening. Either the politician is delusional or the media is. In my corner of my state, things continue going well - cases up somewhat, hospitalizations up slightly, mortality at the same number (15, total) that it was many weeks ago.

Maybe it is one county in each of the 20 states with rising Covid rates? I think someone may be splitting hairs because the overall trend seems to be up in many places. So, yesterday I heard some economic indicators. Movie theaters are still at 1 % of pre-covid levels but air transportation is up, retail shopping is up and public transportation is up. Not particularly high but maybe 25% of pre-covid numbers. So folks are getting out, and folks are still getting sick. Not sure what the thinking is but if the plan is to ignore until it goes away it is clearly not working. Covid will be a major drag on the economy for a long, long time. I feel the plan, if there is a plan, is to just let it go on until there is herd immunity. If you look at where Europe is, compared to where the United States is, we should be ashamed of ourselves. 4% of the worlds population and 25% of the worlds Covid deaths.

Why should we be ashamed of ourselves? There are other factors in play.

Did you read the post that I had with the quote concerning the hamsters?

[JohnDillworth]

4% of the population and 25% of the death.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

4% of the population and 25% of the death.

Other countries were not in the danger zone of the virus and the season. New Zealand and Australia were able to handle it pretty good. Some countries can not be counted on to provide accurate information such as China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia immediately come to mind. Different immunizations are also mitigating factors.

About the only thing that should be considered criminal was requiring the nursing homes and assisted living facilities to take the Covid-19 patients since they did not have the facilities nor equipment plus their staff does not have the training.

[Canoerebel]

It's not a competition, but JohnD is just plain wrong. Reliability about numbers from some countries is highly suspects and for most countries marginally uncertain. But where we have people counting under lots of scrutiny (the US, Canada, Oz, Korea, Japan, Europe, etc.) the US is doing fairly well, from a per capita standpoint. If the US should be ashamed, then what does that say about countries that have suffered far greater losses, to this point? We're doing okay under novel circumstances, as are most countries - at least, doing the best we know how to do. Folks have tried it lots of different ways with no clear-cut winner. Since indefinite lockdowns aren't an option, now nearly all countries are trying phased re-opening. There's no shame for the US or any other country, possibly excepting China if the country actually did suppress info that had an affect on transmittal.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

4% of the population and 25% of the death.

From a European perspective I think that is a bit of a hair-vested way to look at it. The UK has just under 1% of the world's population and 10% of the deaths. In terms of deaths/million pop Spain and Italy (and to a lesser extent France) are significantly worse than the US.

The current IHME projections have the US reaching 200k deaths by October. If that were to come to pass then in deaths/million pop terms that would have you at the point (c.600) that the UK is at right now.

For me the issue for the US is that whilst the national picture looks ok, particular states appear to have been hit far worse than anywhere in Europe. If I were to have one concern it would be that there might be a bit of complacency that what happened in those states couldn't happen elsewhere. To return to the IHME projections California is projected for c.15k deaths by October (equivalent to c370/mill pop). The current upper bound is 26k (or about 670/mill pop - a little higher than the current situation in the UK). You could double that again to 52k deaths and it still wouldn't get to the current death/pop figure that New York has seen.