OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Ok sorry.

I think the message board does odd things sometimes - it was showing your reply as a reply to me and not to m_m [&:]

From the time stamps they were probably typing at the same time.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think we've gotten off track. I wasn't suggesting that highlighting numbers from anywhere is manipulation or bad faith.

Apparently it's not possible for me to communicate clearly via the written word. All I meant was that it would be hard for any entity (local, state, national) to manipulate numbers in bad faith, given scrutiny levels.

I agree - for those who are paying close enough attention to catch the misinformation and any subsequent corrections. Unfortunately there is so much stuff being tossed out to us that few people have the time/interest to track all of it well. So we end up with impressions from what we do remember.

I know the US news I listen to is quick to point out the sudden increases to support their case that it is too soon to open up completely, while other outlets I have seen snippets from are reporting stats that say the trend is consistently downward, so to support the idea of opening up to get the economy moving again. As usual, the truth is likely somewhere in between. People will have to make their own guesstimate of the situation around them, but I hope they are extra careful around vulnerable people.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think we've gotten off track. I wasn't suggesting that highlighting numbers from anywhere is manipulation or bad faith.

Apparently it's not possible for me to communicate clearly via the written word. All I meant was that it would be hard for any entity (local, state, national) to manipulate numbers in bad faith, given scrutiny levels.

Well Dr Rebekah Jones of Florida claims she was fired in May for not manipulating numbers. She publishes her own counts now that are less favorable that the official numbers. Seems she may have been on to something as Florida is now showing record numbers. We also had Georgia having to apologize for publishing misleading graphs. From the Governors communication director
"The x axis was set up that way to show descending values to more easily demonstrate peak values and counties on those dates. Our mission failed. We apologize. It is fixed.

Officials in Virginia, Texas, and Vermont reportedly combined the numbers of completed tests for two separate types: diagnostic tests that identify people currently infected, and antibody tests that can tell whether people have recovered from the virus.
Mixing the two counts can make it seem like these states have been testing more people than other states that are only counting diagnostic tests. The move to combine the totals into one also makes it difficult to identify the trends in daily case counts relative to diagnostic tests completed.

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds told reporters that the state will share information about outbreaks at meatpacking plants only upon request.

So yeah, numbers are being systematically fudged to present a more positive picture. The results of this manipulation are getting harder and harder to hide as number rise. This is the problem with not having a national reporting standard.

[RangerJoe]

Unless they are counting the number of patients or the number of people infected, they numbers will change. Constantly checking the same person who tests negative will tend to have a lower overall positive number while constantly testing a Covid-19 positive person will tend to have a higher positive number unless the numbers reported are stated as per individual. Thus a person who is tested 9 times and then positive only one time then is no longer tested will show a 10% positive when it should actually be otherwise. Since some people like medical staff and first responders are tested more frequently, they will skew the results unless it is reported on a per individual basis and not a per test basis.

So the best metric in that situation to follow may be the death rate if accurately reported or the hospitalization rate with the caveat that the most vulnerable people have probably already been infected, hospitalized, then recovered or died.

Maybe someone in the medical/science field can let us know if the antibodies that are taken from recovered patients can be made in a lab at a relatively low cost or if they have to be taken from the blood serum of recovered individuals. That is an effective treatment and should probably become the standard treatment now.

[RangerJoe]

DOD: Understanding the Potential of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma
By
Carol Duff, MSN, BA, RN -
June 19, 2020

Like a missile locking on its target, antibodies attack invaders inside the body with a singularity of purpose: search and destroy. Typically, infection-fighting white blood cells produce antibodies as an appropriate response to an invading germ. In some people whose immune systems can’t mount a sufficient attack against a virus, donated antibodies from another person’s plasma may help. Researchers believe the power of antibodies lies in their ability to bind to a virus and neutralize it, or block it from entering cells, said Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director of the Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in Silver Spring, Maryland. Modjarrad leads the Army’s COVID-19 vaccine development research.

But not all antibodies are created the same. “Antibodies come in different flavors, some of them are neutralizing and some of them are non-neutralizing and we don’t know exactly which individuals are developing what type of antibody,” said Shelly Krebs, chief of B Cell Biology Core at WRAIR Military HIV Research program.
.
.
.
Future research may lead to the development of highly concentrated neutralizing antibodies extracted from large quantities of convalescent plasma as a potential therapy for prevention and treatment, added Cap.

Scientists believe monoclonal antibodies—derived from a single immune cell—may also hold potential as both a treatment and preventive measure against COVID-19. Krebs and her team have engineered monoclonal antibodies in the lab by isolating the best neutralizing antibodies from CCP samples to create an army of exact replicas that target the COVID-19 virus down to the atomic level, explained Modjarrad. “We know where and how well it’s going to target, and we know the kinetics of how long it will last in the body and how long it will provide protection,” he explained, noting convalescent plasma does not provide that level of effectiveness. “CCP is not generally used for prevention but for treatment.” Monoclonal antibodies could be used for both treatment and prevention of COVID-19 because the transfused neutralizing antibodies would provide immediate immunity, he added.

Monoclonal antibodies have been in use for decades and revolutionized cancer treatment. Krebs’ lab plans to expand the research into monoclonal antibodies against COVID-19 into animal studies this summer. “Our primary goal is to come up with a treatment for people who have COVID-19,” she said.

https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/06/1 ... nt-plasma/

[JohnDillworth]

<redacted>

[JohnDillworth]

Well The White House chose the COVID Tracking Project as the best source to cite for daily US test numbers in its “Opening Up America Again” testing strategy. So lets see what they say. They say that many parts country are getting sicker and Dixie is a hot mess:

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

DOD: Understanding the Potential of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma
By
Carol Duff, MSN, BA, RN -
June 19, 2020

Like a missile locking on its target, antibodies attack invaders inside the body with a singularity of purpose: search and destroy. Typically, infection-fighting white blood cells produce antibodies as an appropriate response to an invading germ. In some people whose immune systems can’t mount a sufficient attack against a virus, donated antibodies from another person’s plasma may help. Researchers believe the power of antibodies lies in their ability to bind to a virus and neutralize it, or block it from entering cells, said Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director of the Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in Silver Spring, Maryland. Modjarrad leads the Army’s COVID-19 vaccine development research.

But not all antibodies are created the same. “Antibodies come in different flavors, some of them are neutralizing and some of them are non-neutralizing and we don’t know exactly which individuals are developing what type of antibody,” said Shelly Krebs, chief of B Cell Biology Core at WRAIR Military HIV Research program.
.
.
.
Future research may lead to the development of highly concentrated neutralizing antibodies extracted from large quantities of convalescent plasma as a potential therapy for prevention and treatment, added Cap.

Scientists believe monoclonal antibodies—derived from a single immune cell—may also hold potential as both a treatment and preventive measure against COVID-19. Krebs and her team have engineered monoclonal antibodies in the lab by isolating the best neutralizing antibodies from CCP samples to create an army of exact replicas that target the COVID-19 virus down to the atomic level, explained Modjarrad. “We know where and how well it’s going to target, and we know the kinetics of how long it will last in the body and how long it will provide protection,” he explained, noting convalescent plasma does not provide that level of effectiveness. “CCP is not generally used for prevention but for treatment.” Monoclonal antibodies could be used for both treatment and prevention of COVID-19 because the transfused neutralizing antibodies would provide immediate immunity, he added.

Monoclonal antibodies have been in use for decades and revolutionized cancer treatment. Krebs’ lab plans to expand the research into monoclonal antibodies against COVID-19 into animal studies this summer. “Our primary goal is to come up with a treatment for people who have COVID-19,” she said.

https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/06/1 ... nt-plasma/

A couple of days ago the BBC mentioned that antibody therapies have proven to be short-term effective, but after a couple of months they lose their effectiveness. Scientists are still investigating whether that is because the antibodies themselves are being ejected from the host or whether the virus is adapting to hide itself from the antibodies (i.e. developing a new strain). No easy answers to this monster ...[:(]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

So I am a movie goer, I go to three or four a year maybe. I like Sci-Fi, I used to like Horror but these days it is either silly or gives me nightmares. I like to go on opening Friday, afternoon-ish, go to restaurant, have a nice meal and a few cordials to get in the mood, slide over to the theater before the 5 p.m. rush so that there are only a handful of us to see the premier on the Super HD Dolby Surround Big Screen.

AMC Theaters announced that when they open they will require movie goers to wear masks. Would any of you sit thru a 2 hour movie wearing a mask?

Yes? That wearing a mask/face-covering has become such an issue just seems bizarre to me. As with any unfamiliar stimulus it feels a bit weird for 5 minutes but after that you barely notice it.

But that is why I think this thread is doomed to be locked again eventually. It is impossible to discuss Covid-19 and particularly the situation in the US without reference to politics. This new thread has ticked along for a few weeks with very little activity apart from brief personal anecdotes. The moment the conversation has moved to any meaningful discussion of the wider picture everything has kicked off again. That's not through any 'malice' on anybody's part - it's just an inevitability.

Well, it kind of is certain people who are unable to let other viewpoints that challenge their politics or opinions go by without comment. Wearing a mask isn't a political topic anywhere except the US.

You're contributing by noticing that as well. Just let it slide and it doesn't make them dig in their heels. Most people who bring in the confederacy or other hot topics are actually just looking for a battle, so ignoring is the best way forward. Let the mods decide. [;)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

This is shameful. We can do better than this.

Worth pointing out that despite the concerning numbers of new cases, the rolling 7-day deaths average has still been declining. We can do and could have done better, but...

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Panjack

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

...Also worth noting post #242 (concerning removals of statues of Confederate generals) has gone unremarked.

A rule for thee, but not for me [8|]

I'm concerned only with "political" postings I otherwise would respond to. It's better I address comments (I think provoking) in this way, instead of either not coming here or engaging in a back-and-forth in ways that doesn't benefit the forum.

In my imperfect way, I'm just trying to keep things here civil...for my own benefit, of course!

Confederate generals are US veterans. Enough said.

Literally not true. Also, can we please not talk Civil War politics here? If folks want to remove their comments, I'll also remove mine.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The baseball economic model is probably too complex to solve right now, given the interplay between stadium occupancy, travel, television revenue, and lingering and increasing uncertainties about the virus. Even if baseball could figure out a way to balance decreases in revenue against payroll and related expenses, the possibility of a renewed outbreak shutting everything down again is a back-breaker. They'd restart if there was a way to figure things out, but they probably can't. Too many uncertainties in too complex a situation.

It's not too complex - it's just too opaque. The owners refuse to let anyone see any of their books. It's pretty telling that they claimed they'd lose 640K per game with no fans in the stands, and when the MLBPA asked them for even basic accounting to back this up, MLB just ignored the request.

Some of the writers over at Baseball Prospectus have dug into the economics with as much information as is publicly available and come to similar conclusions: essentially, that baseball is plenty profitable even if you ignore the non-liquid profits from the monopoly investment.

But really, there's just one trend that you need to look at that explains what's going on with the MLBPA/MLB fight.

There are all kinds of other details, like the trend towards exploiting young talent at low costs, service time manipulation to delay free agency, tanking and/or simply not trying to win (which includes spending a couple million bucks on a free agent who is otherwise going jobless and would make your team better), and so on.

But all of those things really just add up to the share of MLB revenue that players take home: it's decreasing. The 30 (ish) billionaires who own the teams are sucking up an increasing share of the pie, even though the players are the product. Even as baseball has experienced record revenues (most recently in 2018 and 2019), the average MLB salary has decreased.

FWIW, some solid numbers I've seen is that gate receipts + merchandise (which wouldn't be zero in fan-less games because online ordering is still a thing) makes up about 40% of MLB revenues.

Keep in mind that fan-less games also cost much less to put on, because you don't need to pay thousands of employees $15/hr to staff the stadium.

Further FWIW, the game Out Of The Park Baseball has a pretty good representation of actual baseball finances (as well as performance projection...). It's easy to see how ticket revenue isn't really that big of a deal, even for small market teams.

ORIGINAL: fcooke

I think the player's union and the owners are causing most of the grief. I think most of today's players (not all) would get out there and play, just like most of the legacy players would have.

The players are remarkably united in this instance, actually.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

This is shameful. We can do better than this.

Worth pointing out that despite the concerning numbers of new cases, the rolling 7-day deaths average has still been declining. We can do and could have done better, but...

[&:]
Looks to me like the chart shows an increase of around 2000 cases in the last week plotted. That is not a steady decline. I wish there was a similar chart for hospital admissions with COVID. No one is greatly concerned with the mild cases that involve convalescing at home (in isolation from everyone, including family) but hospitals in hot spots are getting beat down. Montgomery, Alabama has been sold out of ICU beds for a few weeks now. Tulsa and Phoenix are headed that way. Not happening everywhere for sure, but you want the major cities to have this thing licked.

[fcooke]

I believe most fans (and all the ones I have spoken to) are tired of the petulant children antics. The owners want fewer regular season games and more playoff games. The players want more games for the pro-rated salary. They need some grown-ups in the room. I used to run a large contracts negotiations team. Just split the difference already. The alienation of fans will cost both sides far more in the long run if they don't sort it out.

Rant off.

edited to clarify owners wanting fewer 'regular season' games and some other silly typos.

[RangerJoe]

This is something that you can shake a stick at!

A day after MLB closed spring facilities for all 30 clubs due to coronavirus spikes in Florida and Arizona, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced on Saturday that permission has been granted for the Yankees to train at Yankee Stadium and the Mets to go through their workouts at Citi Field.

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2020/06/gov- ... -york.html

[RangerJoe]

Florida sets another single-day coronavirus record with more than 4,000 new cases
BY SOPHIE LEWIS
JUNE 20, 2020 / 2:27 PM

All of Florida, except for Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, is in the second phase of reopening. Bars and restaurants can operate at 50% capacity, and gyms, retail stores, museums, libraries and professional sports venues can operate at full capacity.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-co ... than-4000/

More herd immunity cases I hope. There was another quote in the article, you will have to open the link for yourself, however.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

I believe most fans (and all the ones I have spoken to) are tired of the petulant children antics. The owners want fewer regular season games and more playoff games. The players want more games for the pro-rated salary. They need some grown-ups in the room. I used to run a large contracts negotiations team. Just split the difference already. The alienation of fans will cost both sides far more in the long run if they don't sort it out.

Rant off.

edited to clarify owners wanting fewer 'regular season' games and some other silly typos.

If there is one thing I found out about myself in the last 4 months is sports are nice to have, but I can certainly live without them. I miss baseball, but not really. I know there are rabid fans everywhere than live and die by their team. Nothing wrong with that, but with whats going on in the world it seems silly to care too much if sports come back or not. I'm sure this is just me.

[RangerJoe]

I walked to a store today. They had some pro team sports stuff on sale. I told the clerk "Remember when so many women wish that there were no sports on TV" She replied :Yes. I bet that they now wish that they were back on!"

[Canoerebel]

I love the Atlanta Braves but I don't miss baseball or anything else. The plan if baseball returns is to add all kinds of oddities that will render it unappealing to me, so I doubt I'll tune in even if they do come back. The only downside to this is it means I'm stuck with last October's 7th game between the Cardinals and Braves as my final hurrah. That was the ugliest Braves game I've ever seen. The Cards scored 10 runs in the 1st inning - with nothing longer than a double. Drip, drip, drip.

The Covid situation hasn't affected my main pursuits, one of which is outdoors activities like hiking. I've done far more this spring than ever. And it's been the most beautiful spring I've seen here, to boot.

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: fcooke

I believe most fans (and all the ones I have spoken to) are tired of the petulant children antics. The owners want fewer regular season games and more playoff games. The players want more games for the pro-rated salary. They need some grown-ups in the room. I used to run a large contracts negotiations team. Just split the difference already. The alienation of fans will cost both sides far more in the long run if they don't sort it out.

Rant off.

edited to clarify owners wanting fewer 'regular season' games and some other silly typos.

If there is one thing I found out about myself in the last 4 months is sports are nice to have, but I can certainly live without them. I miss baseball, but not really. I know there are rabid fans everywhere than live and die by their team. Nothing wrong with that, but with whats going on in the world it seems silly to care too much if sports come back or not. I'm sure this is just me.

[fcooke]

That's the point. If they don't get their stuff together the golden goose will be cooked. Mind you, I like a nice roast goose......and I was already in the 'it costs too much to go to a game' camp.