OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

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Around the start of May Imperial College in London published a report saying Rt levels were still to high in relation to projected mobility that would be increased when States reopened. They hypothesised that if states did reopen there would be a rise in Rt and a new outbreak of cases that might require more severe closures.

As it appears this is happening, here are the Rt rates for the states two months ago and now. While mortality projections are currently low, if cases rise, those will rise also. If Rt is above one, mobility and social interaction is increased, cases will continue to rise. The same Imperial study projected only about 16% of New Yorkers have had Covid (with error margins from 11-25% IIRC). If the hardest hit state has only 25% with some antibody protection (and how much is still unknown) it's going to take a long time for herd immunity to occur anywhere.

The IHME now uses several factors to predict better and worse scenarios based on some measures in place, mask wearing, etc. They also have stopped using published tested numbers and only use projected cases now, which are 5-10x higher than actual published case increases it seems.

Mask wearing is the one thing everyone can do at little cost to themselves that will both help them and everyone else reduce spread. Will they do it?

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This shows IHMEs new format, with easing clicked and mask wearing clicked. They project that by Oct 1 universal (95% rate) of mask wearing with measures for social distancing in place when daily deaths get to 8 per million would reduce deaths by 25k. That's a lot.

Their other predictions all assume that measures would be established if daily deaths get to 8 per million in any area. Of course to know that there will have to be extensive continued testing and the will and ability to get areas to close up again. I'm very doubtful that will be possible in the States.

Here in the UK Imperial also predicted that easing could go very wrong quickly and small areas might have to be closed to contain outbreaks. It seems that's happening already as the city of Leicester has had a lockdown imposed. I hope that opening bars and restaurants on July 4 will not have similar consequences to what happened in many states. The Rt here is meant to be just below 1 in most places, and slightly lower in London, from what I can tell.

[mind_messing]

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: obvert



Here in the UK Imperial also predicted that easing could go very wrong quickly and small areas might have to be closed to contain outbreaks. It seems that's happening already as the city of Leicester has had a lockdown imposed. I hope that opening bars and restaurants on July 4 will not have similar consequences to what happened in many states. The Rt here is meant to be just below 1 in most places, and slightly lower in London, from what I can tell.

On this, Sky are reporting that 36 other boroughs are at risk of needing to re-impose lockdown measures similar to Leicester

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-12018594

[Nomad]

Without comment, an article on Georgia's Covid-19 deaths:

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy ... -low-covid

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.

Not really pointless - an airing of views/judgements about what information is showing is useful to figure out where people are "coming from" in their assertions. We all tend to gravitate toward the info that supports our judgements, while rejecting what others say is the correct judgement. Contrary opinion has shown me that the news sources I usually watch are a bit too vehement in their disaster reporting/projections while the ones I don't pay much attention to are overconfident in the good news department.

Neither side is going to change their minds without some truly shocking experience. (That as Prof. Morris Massey's theory in his book "What You Are Is Where You Were When"). Arizona and Texas are currently having a great shock that has their medical capacity strained to its limit. I believe the Texas Governor has announce re-imposition of restrictions that he previously believed were not necessary. Massive shock - change of viewpoint. That's how psychology works.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.

Not really pointless - an airing of views/judgements about what information is showing is useful to figure out where people are "coming from" in their assertions. We all tend to gravitate toward the info that supports our judgements, while rejecting what others say is the correct judgement. Contrary opinion has shown me that the news sources I usually watch are a bit too vehement in their disaster reporting/projections while the ones I don't pay much attention to are overconfident in the good news department.

Neither side is going to change their minds without some truly shocking experience. (That as Prof. Morris Massey's theory in his book "What You Are Is Where You Were When"). Arizona and Texas are currently having a great shock that has their medical capacity strained to its limit. I believe the Texas Governor has announce re-imposition of restrictions that he previously believed were not necessary. Massive shock - change of viewpoint. That's how psychology works.

Well, someone may consider it pointless if we suddenly don't adhere to their point of view. [:-]

I prefer to look at many different sources and then decide where the truth is and it is usually somewhere in the middle.

As far as some states in the US, there are different subcultures and attitudes, it is not uniform throughout the entire United States. I am pretty sure that Canada is similar in that the West is different than the East - not to mention Quebec!

Then there is the rural, semi-urban, and densely urban areas. Some large cities like New York and London have been hit hard while few rural area have been hit that hard. Most of the rural areas that have been hit hard were because of refugees from an urban area already hit fleeing there, or some other known reason such as funerals.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Something to think about re. the 'lag' between cases and deaths. The more that you test not only will the case fatality rate decline but the lag will also increase. You'll be recording peoples cases earlier in the progression of the illness. Also if you assume that higher testing numbers result in healthier people being tested - not only will you have a lower death rate but also those people will take longer to die.

[BBfanboy]

You are correct about Canada RJ. We have not done everything right either, but we tend to be flexible rather than set in our beliefs, so we get much less upset when we have to change our minds and start doing things we don't want to do. Some would call this attitude wishy-washy, I just call it coping with dissonance.

Some of the stuff we outsiders hear about makes us scratch our heads. For example, last night I news program I watch reported on a big outbreak in a tiny, sparsely populated county in northern Nebraska. This county had more new daily COVID cases than the state's Capital of Omaha. The county made several ordinances to improve safety while remaining open for business. One of these was requiring visitors to the courthouse to wear masks. Seems like a good idea to protect the people who work in the courthouse.

But the Governor of Nebraska decided that rule should be vetoed, presumably because some citizens didn't like wearing masks and felt it was an infringement on their freedom. Arguments can be made both ways but it comes to a value judgement about when concepts like freedom should be constrained by realities of the moment. Head scratcher.

Oh, and the reason this county is having more cases than Omaha - a meat packing plant. No one has figured out how to make them safe yet, it seems.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.

Not really pointless - an airing of views/judgements about what information is showing is useful to figure out where people are "coming from" in their assertions. We all tend to gravitate toward the info that supports our judgements, while rejecting what others say is the correct judgement. Contrary opinion has shown me that the news sources I usually watch are a bit too vehement in their disaster reporting/projections while the ones I don't pay much attention to are overconfident in the good news department.

Not, it was pointless to have pointed out that the travel ban between the US and the EU was not unilateral. Can't let that fact get in the way of a good narrative that the underlying motivation is dislike for US culinary habits.

Confirmation bias with evidence is a thing, but as we've seen (even in this thread) there's a concerning trend to neglect what the evidence actually tells us and instead what we "feel" is happening. While both have value, emotion should not supplant facts.

Neither side is going to change their minds without some truly shocking experience. (That as Prof. Morris Massey's theory in his book "What You Are Is Where You Were When"). Arizona and Texas are currently having a great shock that has their medical capacity strained to its limit. I believe the Texas Governor has announce re-imposition of restrictions that he previously believed were not necessary. Massive shock - change of viewpoint. That's how psychology works.

"I never thought leopards would eat MY face!"

[RangerJoe]

Sometimes feelings are based upon facts that are not readily apparent. Just like a dog not liking someone, there may be no apparent reason but it is something to consider. Or just like a mother's or a woman's intuition, you may not be able to quantify and measure it but it is there. That is the gut feeling, ignore it at your peril.

Remember that some people need to make things appear worse for their own agenda, which just might be a byline in the paper or news feed.

As far as American culinary habits, I read where the French don't like Americans drinking Coke with their meals as a wine should be preferred. There is also a reason why American eat with their elbows on the table.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Sometimes feelings are based upon facts that are not readily apparent. Just like a dog not liking someone, there may be no apparent reason but it is something to consider. Or just like a mother's or a woman's intuition, you may not be able to quantify and measure it but it is there. That is the gut feeling, ignore it at your peril.

Remember that some people need to make things appear worse for their own agenda, which just might be a byline in the paper or news feed.

As far as American culinary habits, I read where the French don't like Americans drinking Coke with their meals as a wine should be preferred. There is also a reason why American eat with their elbows on the table.

Case in point.

Want to support any (will settle for one) of your assertions with evidence?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Sometimes feelings are based upon facts that are not readily apparent. Just like a dog not liking someone, there may be no apparent reason but it is something to consider. Or just like a mother's or a woman's intuition, you may not be able to quantify and measure it but it is there. That is the gut feeling, ignore it at your peril.

Remember that some people need to make things appear worse for their own agenda, which just might be a byline in the paper or news feed.

As far as American culinary habits, I read where the French don't like Americans drinking Coke with their meals as a wine should be preferred. There is also a reason why American eat with their elbows on the table.

Case in point.

Want to support any (will settle for one) of your assertions with evidence?

If you don’t enjoy drinking wine, then, just drink water. French people love water as well, and will often have some fancy mineral water, sparkling (de l’eau pétillante) or still (de l’eau plate) ready for a dinner with guests. It’s not customary in France to drink a soda, milk or juices during dinner.

https://www.frenchtoday.com/blog/french ... -drinking/

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Sometimes feelings are based upon facts that are not readily apparent. Just like a dog not liking someone, there may be no apparent reason but it is something to consider. Or just like a mother's or a woman's intuition, you may not be able to quantify and measure it but it is there. That is the gut feeling, ignore it at your peril.

Remember that some people need to make things appear worse for their own agenda, which just might be a byline in the paper or news feed.

As far as American culinary habits, I read where the French don't like Americans drinking Coke with their meals as a wine should be preferred. There is also a reason why American eat with their elbows on the table.

Case in point.

Want to support any (will settle for one) of your assertions with evidence?

If you don’t enjoy drinking wine, then, just drink water. French people love water as well, and will often have some fancy mineral water, sparkling (de l’eau pétillante) or still (de l’eau plate) ready for a dinner with guests. It’s not customary in France to drink a soda, milk or juices during dinner.

https://www.frenchtoday.com/blog/french ... -drinking/

Glad you went for the obvious one, now want to explain what that has to do with Covid, other than to imply that it's in response to a general perception of American insensitivity to local customs?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing



Case in point.

Want to support any (will settle for one) of your assertions with evidence?

If you don’t enjoy drinking wine, then, just drink water. French people love water as well, and will often have some fancy mineral water, sparkling (de l’eau pétillante) or still (de l’eau plate) ready for a dinner with guests. It’s not customary in France to drink a soda, milk or juices during dinner.

https://www.frenchtoday.com/blog/french ... -drinking/

Glad you went for the obvious one, now want to explain what that has to do with Covid, other than to imply that it's in response to a general perception of American insensitivity to local customs?

You wrote that you would settle for one so that is all that you are going to get.

When are you going to explain this with proofs:

mind_messing

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe





https://www.frenchtoday.com/blog/french ... -drinking/

Glad you went for the obvious one, now want to explain what that has to do with Covid, other than to imply that it's in response to a general perception of American insensitivity to local customs?

You wrote that you would settle for one so that is all that you are going to get.

When are you going to explain this with proofs:

mind_messing

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.

QED

[sPzAbt653]

California closes indoor dining and bars in 19 counties, including LA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4EcsQcgnNU

[sPzAbt653]

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis says the state will not go back on reopening even as the number of coronavirus cases keeps climbing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghbiBOp8vws

But I will add that Florida has banned sales of alcohol. So bars are remaining open, but can't sell alcohol. Makes sense [X(]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis says the state will not go back on reopening even as the number of coronavirus cases keeps climbing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghbiBOp8vws

But I will add that Florida has banned sales of alcohol. So bars are remaining open, but can't sell alcohol. Makes sense [X(]

That sounds like how the ice cream parlors got started.

[Canoerebel]

Mortality continues to decline in the US and in Georgia and in most of the other states. In the US, the 7-day rolling average is at 560, almost exactly 25% of peak levels in late April.

I know it's going to turn, because so many smart people say so. I mean that mostly seriously. (If sarcasm were the real aim, I'd say "all the smart people.") I keep waiting...and waiting...and waiting. But nothing about this critter is very predictable.