Kelly n Me

[dasboot1960]

Dec 11 is away, and I can see Kelly has learned, and I got a little too bold... it cost me a couple of destroyers down around Mersing. He must know I coming, so I tried to bait him into a surface combat incase he forward deployed ABDAFlot. Two of my DD down due to air. I'm still intending to press the Amphib, it's too decisive a move to ignore. He looks to have about a brigade on beach defence. In the PI, I have an attack going in against forces at San Fernando, expecting success. Things are spooling up in China as my garrison moves free up larger forces and replacements arrive. I wasn't careful enough about surrounding isolated units last time and did too much chasing, trying to herd a little better this time. I'm starting to think maybe use the Wake amphib against Midway, and bring the Guam forces against Wake. I think the latter happened historically after the first bid for Wake failed. I've taken Tabituaea in the Gilberts. I like that location. Some other forward moves are cooking and I'm scraping forces together for Nauru and Ocean. I think I'm going to take some home guard units, or even Kwantung guys and plan for places like Darwin, Perth, Suva etc figuring that he will get some intel, and try to use it to worry him some.

I don't want to be too precise about KB, but I have a feeling there are USN CVs I may be able to catch...Kelly was rash last time, and I think his aggressive button may be just too hard for him to resist. I think he's going for a quick reinforcement at Midway. My initial merchant TFs are getting started now that I have them getting to their start points. The long term conversions are being allocated by type to different yards so I can keep track. I think I will build Shinano, for all it isn't, it is a carrier.

For air, the upsizings continue, for floats and carrier borne. I'm maxing pilots to all air units, all replacements for now. I want to try and build my reserve pool while air opposition is light, and maybe get cheap training in. I won't do this with most carrier borne. Well, not with the big 6 CVs at least. Every eligible pilot goes to TRACOM for later use on better airframes. I'm grinding through Air R&D, also trying to come to grips with engine demand. It seems to me engines definitely need to come first so I can get the bonus on airframe R&d. I have created a spreadsheet to help my thought process.

I'm interested in other's approaches, so I will describe mine. Each turn I watch the replay. Seems like a no brainer, but I have impatient tendencies... occasionally I will take a note or two. I keep a running list of to-do notes. Right now, its a big list, but my previous experience indicates that as we go on it will be shorter. This will become my immediate action list. I also keep a long term list, and have a separate set of notes for air which I hope will help in tracking R&D and training. After I have cleared the hand lists, I review current alerts on tracker (some overlap here), it also helps with new unit arrivals on map, and at assigned destinations for movement. I seem to have most of IntelMonkey running and will try and find what is useful to me there as we go. I then go to the map for remaining tactical/operational moves with a fairly refreshed mind. I eyeball NSY/MSY every day on tracker, and minefields. Once I get my ACM conversions in, minefields will be a lesser concern because I will be pre-supporting any new ones. The NSY/MSY may take monitoring for some time. I always try to scan through my larger ports for finished conversions and ships arriving for repair. I note target or intentions in my TF names and leave hand notes for 'catch TF at' situations. I also do this for multi-stop air transfers. I try to review sub movements daily and take at least one look at the strategic map. Didn't the 'z' shortcut used to show all search patterns on that map? I need to get better about assigning fleet and army commanders. I'm trying to remember that 'esc = back' so I can use both hands. All constructive comments welcome. Jeers, Jibes and tomfoolery will be tolerated.

[dasboot1960]

Just returned 12-14-41.

Air - I'm actually losing in strict air to air. I have gone against Singapore early to cover the landing at Mersing. Kelly has been pretty effective, sinking a couple of ships off Mersing and San Fernando. My split KB caught some transports that I think were headed to Canton/Johnston and Midway. Continuing with air unit re-sizes, alsmost caught up with the ones in Japan, but it is something I will continue with as possible.

Naval - I've had good success with the cordon of the PI. I sunk Houston and caught some transports and tenders trying to get out along the eastern Borneo coast. I lost the 2 AMC that start in SoPac, but haven't caught the carrier(s) that got them. I'm hoping I'll catch one or two if Kelly gets too close to my invasion ops vs Midway, Wake or Canton. KB seems to be holding up ok on sorties, but few torps left, so a little heartburn, but I want to get out to the east early. I'm ashore at Rabaul and Shortlands, and headed for Milne Bay and Lae. Norther Borneo is almost all mine. I got ashore in force at Mersing. I just don't see how the allies stop an early move there.

Land - Pushing from Khota Bahru and at Alor Star. I hope to kick an Aus Bde out of Mersing this turn and then move to cut the N Malaysia forces off from Singapore. Mostly Thai forces with some IJ units heading toward Burma. My main PI forces are on a 2-axis push towards Manila and Clark, Legaspi forces coming up from the south. Davao has fallen and ashore at DelMonte (well, the base nearby) and Cotabato. In China, I'm starting to get active with herding Chinese forces into pockets to destroy.

[dasboot1960]

All right then - Now just getting ready to start my Jan 5, 42 turn. In the eastern and central Pacific, I have taken Waken, Midway, Baker, Canton and Tabiteyea. I the South Pacific, Shortlands, Tulagi, Guadalcanal, Ndeni, Luganville, and I am stalemated ashore at Noumea. In the resource area, am engaged at Clark Field and Manila, but have the rest of Luzon. I hold Davao and probably half the bases on Mindanao, but not Cagayan. Borneo is mine except Samarinda, Banjermassin, and the southwest coast. I have Singapore under siege, and hold Alor Star. I am making my approach into Burma. In China, I hold Hong Kong, but lost Ichang. I bollixed that one, forgetting how vulnerable it is. I had the time to reinforce but was not focused. Wenchow is the only Chinese port I don't hold, and I have taken Chengchow, with Loyang nearly in the bag.

I feel like both my air and naval losses are trending too high, I think both due to pretty aggressive reaches . I have sent too many unescorted bomber raids, and too many low-level airbase fighter attacks. At least playing one day turns, there haven't been any huge disasters. I also have had my successes. I now can put escorted Nav bombers over Batavia.The largest naval losses have been three of the large AMCs, but I knew I was risking them. As far as combatants, I have lost a CL, 2 DDs, and 3 Es. Truly, for as early as it is, and as extended as I am, I feel the losses are acceptable. My total hulls lost is 54, Aircraft loss points right now are tied at 614, but I anticipate that will swing back towards me with some future airbase captures. I have also put replacement pool guys right into front line units, in the hope that some will survive and train up, that may have affected losses too.

Obviously I'm trying to force an early USN carrier battle, but no dice yet. Kelly has hid them very well this time, but there is still a fight at Noumea, that has revealed at least one CV in the area. KB is stalking the area looking to pinch that one, or with luck, more. I'm having to scramble for troops to reinforce my landing there, he knew I would go there, and when my landing force approached I sunk several of his transports, including the QE, but he already had a couple brigades ashore. As early as it is, I am positive I will win, I just hope I can bag a couple carriers and perhaps some major combatants in the process. Needless to say, My AOs are working their asses off. The small carriers are all at Truk for additional support or to provide additional replacements.

In the Philippines, Kelly used the Clark/Manila/Bataan. strategy again. I think this is flawed. As allies I always pick Bataan. Early on, the triangle strategy might provide some rest/rotation opportunities,(that's all I can think of to recommend it). But once the real shooting starts, when Clark goes, The other two are both isolated. I'm bringing in 38th Div from Hong Kong to try and expedite that.

In Malaya, I went for Mersing. (trooplift losses ensued) This resulted in a good 20k commonwealth troops isolated north of Singapore. Additionally from the initial fight I had at Palembang, I think he pulled a couple Indian brigades out. My first assault at Singapore went off at 1-2, but I have the Imperial Guards coming down from Mersing and expect to crack it quickly. I'm looking to get may paras in to try and speed Sumatran occupation, at which point Java will bu a brute force undertaking after Singapore goes.

Burma will get sizable troop inputs post Java, I am seriously considering a major play for Calcutta.

Production - Ramping up early a/c & engine production. Trying to bring on R&D capacities. I really feel like I'm playing with fire here, so I trying to hold back some, in economic caution. I have accelerated the three Amagis, and raised NSY to currently 1464. I am only increasing capacity at Shimonoseki and Kagoshima right now, just because they are smallest. I haven't turned any carrier production or other combatants off, but did kull through the other ship classes. 'm fairly confident in this regard, but may turn some of the smaller subs back on later. Right now, progress on Musashi is every other day, due to NSY limits. Not really production, but I have upsized air squadrons as much as possible. So far, it merely screams how much I need to ramp up air production. I have disbanded/withdrawn some just so I don't have so many low-count units to go through. I intend to try and hold perhaps 75% of my squadrons back to maximize training, and the more pilots that each can have strikes me as better.

Economy - I'm only shipping out of prewar held ports, and just eyeballing levels at what I'm capturing for now. Trying to remind myself I'm only one month in. I've cause more damage this time around to oil infrastructure, and that sucks. Currently, Supply is 2.7m+. Resources 7.4m+ and Oil 3m+. Fuel is 4.3m+ I have kept a lot of ships parked for now. I have gone for the mass-conversion of small XAKs per notes I have found (I have read Solli's Into the Breach AAR front to back, and may have printed half of it, it has provided across the board insight.

I know there's too much I could include but have forgotten. The one thing that becomes more obvious to me every turn is the fact, (not to be too Rumsfeldian), of the known unknowns, but more importantly the unknown unknowns. May there be ever fewer unknown knowns. I'm not going political here, I'm just stealing his lines. Therefore, I invite criticism, kibitzing and insight. The forum has been a great learning tool for me, and I really prefer to learn things the hard way last of all. CHEERS!

[dasboot1960]

FARK! I swear I proof=read! Oh well...

[RangerJoe]

Bomb Wenchow's PORT to destroy Chinese fuel.

Don't disband those low strength air units, send them someplace and use them for training pilots. Let them fill out with aircraft later. That is a good job for Claudes, Idas, and Nates.

[dasboot1960]

Thanks Joe! I had considered the air training aspect, but wasn't sure about how number of ac assigned might affect training levels. I have a bunch still left because I wasn't sure which way to jump. As to Wenchow, I've got air on it now and will probably bring up a couple of BBs. I'm not clear on what knocking out Chinese fuel is going to do for me. They can't send it anywhere, and I have the land routes, I think. Just the sort of conversation I'm looking for, thanks again!

[RangerJoe]

Don't sea bombard with BB unless you want to destroy the industry. DWs will sea bombard to keep up fatigue, suppression, and train the crews.

For training groups, just a few will allow some training but the more aircraft in the unit, the more the pilots will train. Put a very good pilot or two in the unit to bring up the overall averages so the crews will train faster as well since they will want to go up to the group average fast.

[dasboot1960]

Tryin to figure out what a DW is... In any case I'm not too troubled by breaking some eggs while making sausage. I know that I do not rank anywhere near the top of careful, methodical players out there. I have never been.

[RangerJoe]

I mean DMs, sorry. Destroyer minesweepers. Not enough damage to hurt the industry but will help keep fatigue and suppression up. It will train the crews a little, maybe.

[dasboot1960]

I see. Over the years, even going back to paper map days, I have met gamers who thought that everything could be calculated to the nth. By contrast, although I like to think I'm competent, I know I'll always be a bit of a slob at times. The good news is, I just got 1/5/42 back. Although I didn't catch any CVs at Noumea, Kelly did try to bring in supply and reinforcements. I trust little of sinking reports, but I appear to have at least hit 2-3 cruiser and a couple destroyers. Only one AK reporting, though I thought I hit more. Time for a surface sweep...

[RangerJoe]

With Gary Grigsby, there is always a random factor.

[dasboot1960]

YES. Sorry if I sounded pissy. I was having a moment with a private response that I think I may just ignore from here on out. If it don't get posted, I aint responding.

[RangerJoe]

No, you are fine with me. My error in nor proof reading what I posted.

[dasboot1960]

NIPPON BANZAI!!! Singapore fell, January 8. 1942. Certainly a record for me in any game, and the Emperor is well pleased. This proves the theory that Kelly pulled a brigade or two down to Palembang, where those forces are now in disarray, having retreated towards Benkoelen. I was quicker en route to Padang and now have them in a pincer. Singapore's early fall leaves perhaps a division of scattered allied troops between Molucca and Georgetown (both mine). Elements of 2 of my divisions were involved in those actions, now with the remainder of those two freed up at Singapore, I intend to crush the isolated allied forces, rest and recombine, and hop a train for Burma. This leaves 3 divisions from Singapore for Java.
I intend to reinforce the mixed forces on Sumatra with the 3 airborne units I'm now flying in to Palembang to pacify that Island. I learned my lesson last time with a multi prong (Soerbaja first, and surprisingly easy, but then bogged down all over and stalemated at Batavia) plan. This time, it's sledgehammer at Batavia and sweep east.
I think the PI will crack fairly quickly due to Kelly's choice to defend the Clark-Manila-Bataan triangle, We're getting ready to find out, A division from Hong Kong is almost in the line.
I hold several of the small islands between Java and Australia, so I expect Celebes will be the last to go, but I'm having growing success on Mindanao. I'm really beginning to hope for a total sweep of the resource area by end of February. Perhaps the Luzon may last longer.

Airwise, I've moderated my fighter usage, and really bombers too, to limit losses somewhat. I'm still bombing all over, but sweeps are OUT. I know I'm learning, I just have a very limited idea of what it all means. I'm trying to get Land based naval air out to the east to cover ongoing operations there, especially when KB is being rearmed.

So! to the east. I've got a good grip from Rabaul down TO Noumea, but I'm stalemated there on the ground. I hurried a division straight from Japan, but because I kept KB around supporting the Canton and Midway ops, I got caught naked and lost probably half of it when he snuck a carrier in. KB was not far behind though, and that US CV has since disappeared and Nagumo rules the waves in those waters, I don't have the game open but Kelly's losses have been heavy in CA, CL, DD and all manner of amphibious shipping. I think he may also have large LCU losses. I'm convinced I'll win right now, but I'm having to scrounge up ground combat units to knock him out. He's been very careful with his CVs this time, but I still hope to perhaps catch one, or all. I have the smaller IJN carriers lurking, and intend to bait and switch him. We'll see.
Embarrassingly, I almost lost a regiment at Wake, loading out an unescorted AP. USS Trout's torpedoes worked perfectly twice... But I have the remnant to rebuild. What a pisser. I'm fortifying Tabituea, Wake Baker and Canton, pushing seaplane tenders out to get me some eyeballs, but I know I'm overextended, and KB can't be everywhere. I'm willing to lose any on of those if I get Noumea. I've got engineers either in play, or coming, so fortifications are proceeding. I know from last time that Kelly can get aggressive. I'm hoping my bait and switch around Noumea will keep him guessing.
The time to figure out resource shipping to the home islands is fast approaching. I have followed the mass conversion to PB, ACM etc program, there seem to be plenty of hulls. I've sent the future conversions (STD-Cs to TK, etc) to designated ports by type. I haven't pre-positioned anything for future merchant shipping, preferring to save the fuel. It looks to me like there is plenty of capacity, even if I am not shipping resources etc as early as possible.
I have been sledge hammery about bombarding hexes with oil well, refineries etc. in them. In the name of speed. I may have some regrets.
China - Yeesh. I think I'm winning... I've cleared up most of the small isolated Chinese forces, but Kelly has consolidated the rest. I've restricted myself to not bombing his industry, and that may be helping him. I'm hammering Loyang, and hold the twin city already, cant remember the name. He has large forces investing several of the cities in the Wuchang? area. But he hasn't got the mass to break in, and is not disrupting my supply lines. Additionally his strategy is centralizing targets for me to mass on down the road.

I really can't help feeling like I'm doing ok. BUT what is Victory Disease without delusion?

[RangerJoe]

You might be quicker loading transports in Singapore and sailing them with CVTF and SCTF protection, thence to Burma - or Akyab, Chittagong!

[dasboot1960]

I certainly appreciate your advice Ranger. For now, The carriers will be busy. I think Akyab is due consideration, Chittagong might be a reach. I am toying with an amphibious shot at Calcutta perhaps out towards May, basically using forces from Java and the PI (especially if I can make a dent is US CV strength). Kelly made a massive stand at Rangoon last time, and I think he views it as successful as a time drain; and is trying it again. Last time, Singapore took till the end of January and Java was a drag. This time, I'm thinking backdooring China through Paoshan may have merit, which strategically makes Akyab more viable, but I'm not bought into using the mid-Malaysia cleanup divisions for the amphibious ops. I 've got a strong gut feeling that the PI will go quicker this time. Last time was early April. He followed the same strategy, but I've changed up. Last time I think I wasted a division and considerable time on Sumatra, and also the Andamans, and a division of that came from Hong Kong, and did not go to the PI. I think he will try again to make commitments in the Andamans, Cocos and at Christmas near Java. However, I have adjusted my view, now seeing that though Cocos and Christmas are daggers pointed at the resource area, it is early 1942, and they will be fatally isolated. I will have time for them. I see the Andamans as ancillary to any Calcutta move, or a must do if I don't hazard that op. I'm still IJN focused on forcing his pride to fight on the Aus logistics line. Success there more or less would assure success back to the west in May.

As a side discussion, in one of my earlier PBMs, I conceded as the Allies along about May of 42. I feel now that I got rooked. My oppo was dropping tiny airborne forces along supply routes in India in support of his successful Calcutta invasion. I won't go in to painstaking detail, but I have learned, and now see why, the manual specifies airborne drops may only drop on enemy 'locations'. Locations appearing to me to be either a dot or a base. I felt forced to chase squads on (non-location hexes) with brigades to maintain supply routes to the India-Burma border, and then of course the hammer fell on Calcutta. I'm pretty sure there is a similar 'location' restriction on amphibious assaults, but I'm not finding it right now. I'm just curious as to your thoughts on the subject.

Another thing I'm curious about is Batangas, south of Manila. 2 games in a row now I see huge (36k+) amounts of supply being captured (I guess) there. I'm somewhat a student of the first PI campaign, I know that South Luzon Force probably lost some stocks in their retreat, especially given Big Macs flawed initial strategy; it just seems like so much. I have no interest in starting a game as the Allies to give me some advantage in this one, or mining you for it. Any thoughts?

[RangerJoe]

Keep those small battalions on the bases against the paratroopers as Allies. If there are no home rules against landing on non base hexes, do so on Java since you won't have disruptions. The armor regiments can move fast and capture bases, cutting the island in two.

Take Palambang, capture Sinkgawang ASAP and put torpedo planes on it.

If he fortifies and reinforces Burma, land behind him in India and cut him off. Go all the way to Ledo, capture Calcutta. He won't have many units and not good ones. If you really don't plan on conquering India, just trash and destroy units since the Commonwealth replacements are so low. Don't have much of a garrison so the partisans can trash the airfields. The current units don't have that high a firepower either. Then you can take out Burma. Take and trash Ceylon if you can.

[dasboot1960]

I've had Sinkawang since early Dec, with torps. That air flotilla is now loading for Palembang.

So it is your opinion that a 'location' is anyplace on the map? I have come to the conclusion that 4.2.4.2 interestingly enough on page 42, pretty strongly indicates that a 'location' is a hex that does or could have a base in it. I don't feel a house rule should be needed here.

I haven't dropped any paratroopers yet. I know historically they did succeed against garrisoned locations, but I hate learning lessons the hard way in a live game. There are plenty of other 'locations'

I have no intention of even laying siege to Rangoon this time through. My intent is to secure my supply lines near Rangoon, and exploit north.

I get the 'don't garrison' tactic, and why the loss of 1 VP still bothers me so much is a mystery to me.

Ceylon REALLY feels like a reach at this point. BUT with strategic success against the USN, almost anything begins to look possible. (This is the point at which Kelly and I restarted last time).

[RangerJoe]

Paratroopers can only land on bases, invasions and Fast Transport TFs can land at any coastal hex. Even just supplies which activated the Soviets because Stalin did not like the rotten sushi.