Rule of Thumb

[KPAX]

Just looking for some general information.

In a PBEM, as Allies, against a normal opponent, what would be expected fall of .....

PI?
Singapore?
DEI?
Burma?
China (most of it)?

Now this is in general. I realize an aggressive, talent IH player can do wonders for this.

So, just looking for a rule of thumb for a PBEM.

[Q-Ball]

Alot depends on what Scenario you are playing and many, many other factors. Others may differ! But...


PI?
--Depends entirely on whether Japanese want to forcefully take it, or let it starve, or how many divisions to use. US should be pushed back into Clark and/or Manila by end of December. After that, up to the IJA....
Personally, I just leave a single division + in place to siege it, and let it starve. Japan can always clean it up later in '42.
Mindanao should be landed on in December; Cebu produces supplies so Japan doesn't want that one to linger, but the rest can just starve and be cleaned up later

Singapore?
--Feb 1 is the benchmark. Earlier good for Japan, later bad.

DEI?
--Once again, alot depends on Japanese strategy. They need to lock all the OIL down early, so Palembang, Balikpapan, Tarakan, all need to fall no later than early January. After that, really depends. But I would say March/April as Japan you want to have it fully cleared.

Burma?
--Japan needs to take Rangoon ASAP. This should happen no later than 2 weeks after fall of Singers, earlier if IJA commits to overland campaign. Jan 15 is a good date.
The rest of Burma depends entirely on whether Allies want to fight it out in Lashio and Myiktinya, or not. It can take months if they do.

China (most of it)?
--So many factors....all the Clear Terrain should be cleared in the first month. Really hard to put a timeline, but by the middle of 1942 it will be apparent whether it will fall or if a stalemate will develop. There is no way to avoid Chinese losing alot of territory, so it's a matter of some or all.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: KPAX

Just looking for some general information.

In a PBEM, as Allies, against a normal opponent, what would be expected fall of .....

PI?
Singapore?
DEI?
Burma?
China (most of it)?

Now this is in general. I realize an aggressive, talent IH player can do wonders for this.

So, just looking for a rule of thumb for a PBEM.

All these are "-ish"

PI? Most of the PI will be secure by the fall of Manila/Clark/Bataan. The last chapter here should play out on or before historical-sometime between April and May 1942.

Singapore? Look for it to fall circa-historical. End of January 1942.

DEI? Sumatra, Java, Borneo gone by April 1942. Some outliers (e.g., Ambon, Timor) may take a little longer. In the case of some dot hexes-these may not go at all, as they are strategically irrelevant.

Burma? February-March 1942 sounds about right.

China? Most of China should be on its heels by mid-late 1942. In some cases, Chungking will go on or around January 1943. Some of the Western fringe cities in the mountains or far North may still be in play then, but they are an afterthought.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: KPAX

Just looking for some general information.

In a PBEM, as Allies, against a normal opponent, what would be expected fall of .....

PI? Allied troops bottled up in Clark or Manila by Feb '42. Cleared at some point in mid '42
Singapore? Jan/Feb '42
DEI? March '42 for Java, April/May for outlying areas.
Burma?Any point after 6/42
China (most of it)? By 1943.

Now this is in general. I realize an aggressive, talent IH player can do wonders for this.

So, just looking for a rule of thumb for a PBEM.

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
Burma?
--Japan needs to take Rangoon ASAP. This should happen no later than 2 weeks after fall of Singers, earlier if IJA commits to overland campaign. Jan 15 is a good date.
The rest of Burma depends entirely on whether Allies want to fight it out in Lashio and Myiktinya, or not. It can take months if they do.

Disagree there, Burma is absolutely not a priority. A single Betty squadron at Bangkok closes Rangoon, and with that turns it into a cauldron for Allied units.

The extra supply to China is worth something, but 500 supply a day goes fast in the face of a competent IJ campaign.