The question to ask about The Italians

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

In your dream scenario the CW has been kicked out of the Mediterranean, from Gib to Suez, there is no more CW presence.

That's about it.

Malta has fallen.

Malta is irrelevant and will just die on the vine without supplies.

The Germans are almost masters of all they survey in Europe. There is no US in the war and the USSR have yet to be attacked, the British army in Gib have been beaten, the army in Egypt have been beaten….

Pretty much. Let me just add that every ETO scope wargame I've ever encountered agrees with me. So, I've got a lot of people who earned a living making wargames on my side.

in defending these places the army, navy and air force have taken huge punishment.....

Possibly. Depends on their reaction. They could run for it.

and you genuinely think the Germans would worry about the Royal Navy sailing up the Red Sea and what? Storming the Suez Canal line astern?

Eventually the US will be in the war and the Germans will be deeply involved in Russia. It would be a prudent safety measure. But, if it really bothers you that much just ignore it. It's a minor issue.

- nonsense about Army Groups (why not have a couple in Turkey?),

They don't need a couple. What's the issue with an army group in Turkey? They'll have used an army group against Spain in 1940, too.

and the number of Germans born between 1941 and 1945 increasing if the Germans attack in 1942, apparently the Soviets last year of peacetime production wasn't as great as the German's in the same period (love to know where that stat came from)

You need to read more carefully. I never said anything like the above. What I did say is that the Germans get a new year of recruits each year. And if those recruits exceed the previous years losses - which they will for 1941 - then the Germans will have more manpower in 1942 than they had at the start of 1941. And if the Soviets remain at peace in 1941, then their peace-time production for that year will be FAR less than their historical war-time production of that year.

and Stalin being quite happy about Germany occupying the Straits because there will be a legally binding agreement for all commercial traffic....

Yep. What would he have lost? The Turks weren't going to let the Black Sea Fleet pass the straits.

That's not debating that just embarrassing.

Always with the personnel comments. You shame yourself. Stick to the facts.

One other point: The British invaded Lebanon and Syria on June 14th 1941. That's probably before the Turkish operation kicks off. So, the Germans wouldn't be taking them from Vichy, they would be taking them from the British.

[warspite1]

Always with the personnel comments.

a) What personal comments? I consider many of your arguments are ill-thought out (if considered at all) – that is not personal – that is commentary on the arguments that you put forth. And yes, three comments have been embarrassing.
b) You need to be more honest in your debating.

For example in this latest post, you’ve taken a statement I made in specific context, and split up sentences so they are out of context to make non-points. If your intention was to debate honestly, why would you feel the need to do that?

So the first point – out of context

The second point about Malta – out of context – and you know I haven’t suggested it is relevant without Gibraltar to re-supply it. I mentioned Malta as scene setting as part of my wider comment – but you know that – you are simply being disingenuous.

Third point. Again totally out of context. I haven’t said that defeating the British was impossible. I repeat, I think that trying to achieve it in the way you believe the Germans should have done is foolhardy, leaves the Germans open to problems in the way they’ve chosen to deal with both their allies and minors BUT worst of all, it doesn’t help with the Soviet Union – and this is what matters.

Fourth point. Indeed they could… so let’s see. The CW don’t fight to their best and give the Germans a free ride, the Soviets don’t act in their own interests in any way shape or form and the Spanish and Turks don’t put up any resistance – yes I can see why you believe in the simple ‘blitz through Spain and Turkey’ approach.

Fifth point – another example of disingenuous debating. Like with Vichy, like with the ‘armistice with the Axis’, like with the Straits, you have been found out with the frankly preposterous Suez assessment. It bothers me only in so much as assessments like that simply damage your credibility. How am I to take you seriously if you really believe these things?

Sixth point – there you go again. ‘What’s the issue with an army group in Turkey?’……. None at all – the Germans have manpower to spare obvs…..

Seventh point – no reading issue. The Germans have a finite manpower resource. It was insufficient to beat the Soviets. Not by a little bit, the war wasn’t fought to a stalemate. The Germans launched Barbarossa in June 1941 and in less than four years their army was destroyed and most of Germany occupied. The only way the German situation is bettered is by beating the Soviets harder than they historically did, allied of course to not losing even more men to side shows that don’t help them win the only war that matters.
What your simple ‘blitz through Turkey and Spain’ has done – at best for the Germans – is cost them precious trained and combat experienced manpower and material without ANY hurt to the Soviets. In so doing, the Soviets have time to produce more than they had in 1941, better quality than they had in 1941, more time to prepare defences than they had in 1941 and more time to train than they had in 1941. Soviet peace time production (and without suffering any loss) will be significantly higher than German production – and German production numbers are subject to losses at the hands of the Spanish, Turkish and CW.

Eighth point – sorry this is just not worth commenting on. This is just so… words fail. Genuinely, words fail.

Ninth point – this has been mentioned before but you haven’t taken it on board. So you are suggesting there is a blitz through Spain that threatens Gibraltar BUT only the Germans can act/react in your alternate world. Regardless of what is going on in Spain, you assume that Exporter has to happen on schedule.

[RangerJoe]

Those must be some damned good pharmaceuticals!

The timeline is before the Allies entered Syria. But if the Germany attack Turkey, the Allies invade Syria on their way to aid Turkey.

You can't even read a map and do adequate reconnaissance, then do some research.

The Turks would have allowed the Soviet Black Sea through the straits as long as the Soviets were not at war. Attaturk and Lenin got along. Turkey gave up its dream of empire.

With the number of young German men that you are killing off, only the boys and old men would be available to make German babies. The boys would have to do so until they get drafted and killed. Unless, of course, you would allow the untermenchen to impregnate German women.

Lend Lease would ramp up and the US Navy would be escorting loaded American ships to Allied ports. Full ammo loadouts, weapons locked and loaded.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The timeline is before the Allies entered Syria.

warspite1

Possibly, but we don't know the timeframe because that level of effort hasn't been put into the scenario. We've just got that the Germans should 'blitz through Spain and Turkey' line.

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

But if the Germans attack Turkey, the Allies invade Syria on their way to aid Turkey.

warspite1

Maybe, but not necessarily, after all why add to your enemies for no reason? I suspect preparations would be made but The CW would hope that a German invasion of Vichy territory would be be met with force - just as happened in real life Menace, Exporter and Jane. If not then this weakens Petain's position - certainly in the eyes of the British and especially the Americans, on whom they are reliant for vital imports (not least food). The US are going to take a really dim view of the authorities in Vichy assisting any push south from Turkey toward Suez.

The same applies to Spain of course and this bizarre idea that Franco will a) be allowed to live and b) be happy to join the Axis after Spain has just been invaded by the Germans. A Spain, struggling to feed its people and with little oil, are going to find the US supply tap turned off on joining with the Axis. Any puppet thinking of replacing Franco will be only too aware of this just as well as Franco was.

[rico21]

Franco, Petain. A french point of view.[8D]
http://www.aphgaixmarseille.com/spip.php?article482

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: rico21

Franco, Petain. A french point of view.[8D]
http://www.aphgaixmarseille.com/spip.php?article482

I ain't French nor can I read and understand it.

[rico21]

Try google translation,or translation option of microsoft edge for read.
To understand, it's an other story...[:D]

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

a) What personal comments? I consider many of your arguments are ill-thought out (if considered at all) – that is not personal – that is commentary on the arguments that you put forth. And yes, three comments have been embarrassing.

I'm just childish and embarrassing.

b) You need to be more honest in your debating.

Oh, and dishonest, too.

For example in this latest post, you’ve taken a statement I made in specific context, and split up sentences so they are out of context to make non-points. If your intention was to debate honestly, why would you feel the need to do that?

So the first point – out of context

Explain how it was taken out of context.

The second point about Malta – out of context – and you know I haven’t suggested it is relevant without Gibraltar to re-supply it. I mentioned Malta as scene setting as part of my wider comment – but you know that – you are simply being disingenuous.

No. I am not a mind reader. I'm assuming that your words meant what they spelled out.

Third point. Again totally out of context. I haven’t said that defeating the British was impossible. I repeat, I think that trying to achieve it in the way you believe the Germans should have done is foolhardy, leaves the Germans open to problems in the way they’ve chosen to deal with both their allies and minors BUT worst of all, it doesn’t help with the Soviet Union – and this is what matters.

I can only react to what you say. And, you are welcome to your - misguided - opinion. But this plan does impact the Soviets by:

1. Ending the drain of the Desert War.
2. Threatening Baku.
3. Enabling Italy to survive longer.

Fourth point. Indeed they could… so let’s see. The CW don’t fight to their best and give the Germans a free ride, the Soviets don’t act in their own interests in any way shape or form and the Spanish and Turks don’t put up any resistance – yes I can see why you believe in the simple ‘blitz through Spain and Turkey’ approach.

With overwhelming force heading their way, it might be prudent for them to cut and run. Assuming they're not trapped in Libya.

Fifth point – another example of disingenuous debating. Like with Vichy, like with the ‘armistice with the Axis’, like with the Straits, you have been found out with the frankly preposterous Suez assessment. It bothers me only in so much as assessments like that simply damage your credibility. How am I to take you seriously if you really believe these things?

I stand by all those points. Nothing happened when the Allies invaded Syria or when the Japs took Indochina. Nothing would happen when the Axis invaded Syria either. But, as I pointed out, that may be a moot point anyway. I don't see anything preposterous about damaging the canal. It sounds prudent. And I really really really don't get the thing about the straits. Stalin doesn't possess the straits and the Turks are his enemies. Should I take you seriously?

Sixth point – there you go again. ‘What’s the issue with an army group in Turkey?’……. None at all – the Germans have manpower to spare obvs…..

And what better way to preserve that manpower than by employing overwhelming force. If Stalin stays neutral, much of it can be back in place by 1942. If he doesn't, it can wheel right and head for Baku.

Seventh point – no reading issue.

Yes. There was a serious reading issue. You fabricated a straw man.

The Germans have a finite manpower resource. It was insufficient to beat the Soviets. Not by a little bit, the war wasn’t fought to a stalemate. The Germans launched Barbarossa in June 1941 and in less than four years their army was destroyed and most of Germany occupied. The only way the German situation is bettered is by beating the Soviets harder than they historically did, allied of course to not losing even more men to side shows that don’t help them win the only war that matters.

Baku. No desert war. Italy survives.

What your simple ‘blitz through Turkey and Spain’ has done – at best for the Germans – is cost them precious trained and combat experienced manpower and material without ANY hurt to the Soviets. In so doing, the Soviets have time to produce more than they had in 1941, better quality than they had in 1941, more time to prepare defences than they had in 1941 and more time to train than they had in 1941. Soviet peace time production (and without suffering any loss) will be significantly higher than German production – and German production numbers are subject to losses at the hands of the Spanish, Turkish and CW.

No. Germans are doing war-time production.

Eighth point – sorry this is just not worth commenting on. This is just so… words fail. Genuinely, words fail.

Hopefully your words will fail the next time you feel the need to make personnel comments.

Ninth point – this has been mentioned before but you haven’t taken it on board. So you are suggesting there is a blitz through Spain that threatens Gibraltar BUT only the Germans can act/react in your alternate world. Regardless of what is going on in Spain, you assume that Exporter has to happen on schedule.

The Blitz through Spain and Gibraltar took place in 1940. Rommel is going to fall back to Tripoli. No reason for them not to go ahead with it - just to get de Gaulle off their backs.

Now, for some points I haven't yet had the opportunity to add, but are overdue:

1. The Germans get to loot Spain and Turkey upon conquest. Not sure just what that will yield, but trucks and trains for sure, plus plenty of wealth.

2. Eastern Turkey is Kurdish land. The Kurds hate the Turks and will definitely help the Germans against them.

3. No Barbarossa probably means no Rising Sun offensive. That means the US stays out of the war for at least another year. The Japs aren't going to feel free to go off on their wild adventure unless the USSR is teetering on the brink. Furthermore, even if they do, Hitler will be far less inclined to declare war on the US if he hadn't just knocked on the gates of Moscow.

[loki100]

oh god, you don't change do you. Why does every thread you occupy end in this sort of unreadable nonsense?

[RangerJoe]

Those must be exquisite pharmaceuticals.

You don't even know why the Japanese attacked the US. Hint: It had nothing to do with Germany and Europe.

With overwhelming force heading their way, it might be prudent for them to cut and run. Assuming they're not trapped in Libya.

Some people aren't prudent, some people don't run. You appear to be ready to run at the first opportunity that presents itself. Maybe you have. That is why some wars started.

I'm just childish and embarrassing.

I will not argue with you on that point.

Oh, and dishonest, too.

I will not argue with you on that point. In fact, I will concede that you are correct on both points.

Things did happened when the Allies took Syria. People died. Turkey did get involved as well.

But Syria was autonomous in 1936 with French forces being allowed to base there. Germany stationed bombers there to attack into Iraq as well as send aid to the Iraqi rebels. The Germans also aided the Vichy French in getting reinforcements to Syria. In fact, a Vichy French Maryland bomber was shot down over British Mandated Palestine before the Syrian invasion.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: loki100

oh god, you don't change do you. Why does every thread you occupy end in this sort of unreadable nonsense?

Maybe his brain is fried? [&:]

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm just childish and embarrassing.

warspite1

No, but from someone with your background, in my opinion certain statements you’ve made have been so, yes. You said the French made an armistice with the Axis….. That is unworthy of someone like you.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Oh, and dishonest, too.

warspite1

Splitting up of my statement into individual sentences that suggested I was saying something I wasn’t is disingenuous yes.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

But this plan does impact the Soviets by:

1. Ending the drain of the Desert War.
2. Threatening Baku.
3. Enabling Italy to survive longer.

warspite1

If successful, then yes, it could achieve all three things (although number 3 is hardly a valid concern at the time). Italy survived with the measures actually put in place. But none of the three points above gives a valid argument to show this action as being war winning.

When looking at the potential downsides, this alternate scenario shouldn’t be looked at on the basis that “Germany lost anyway” but an explanation on whether this was a credible option for the Germans, having got Hitler to postpone Barbarossa.

And this alternate plan carries with it potentially serious problems for Barbarossa – and Barbarossa is Hitler’s Holy Grail. Simply ‘blitzing through Spain and Turkey’ as a ‘done deal’ that fails to address those potential issues is worthless as a debate.

It fails to consider the positions of the countries involved in the region, what action(s) they may take, and what that could mean for them. You waive this away, but this is important as it will affect how they behave – and how they behave affects Germany and the success or failure of the operation.

For example I mentioned at the outset about the potential limitations of the German anti-shipping units – not ability, but number – and what that limitation meant for the actual Med War. But apparently this is not considered important to debate – despite the fact there is factual evidence to show how effective the Germans were….. but how stretched to.

Stalin proved to be remarkably short-sighted when it came to the build-up to Barbarossa and who knows, he may have continued to be so in this alternate 1941. But as a wise man once said, past performance is no guarantee of the future. As said, Turkey – and specifically the Straits – was raised by the Soviets during and post the NS Pact. This is a BIG issue for the USSR - very big, survival big and pact or no pact, Hitler and Stalin do not trust each other.

No, there is no guarantee when Stalin would wake up and smell the coffee. But just look at what the Straits meant, look at the geographical position of Turkey. Look at what the Germans were doing. If I had to lay money on it, then yes I believe that this would be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

But you’ve now added a point that seems to go against everything we know of the Japanese and their inability to lose face:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No Barbarossa probably means no Rising Sun offensive. That means the US stays out of the war for at least another year.

warspite1

So, forget Barbarossa, forget what the Soviets are doing. The US has told Japan, get out of China or you will be out of oil in 18 months maximum. And you believe that – even based on everything we know about Japan in 1941 - you believe they are going to simply exit China?

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: loki100

oh god, you don't change do you. Why does every thread you occupy end in this sort of unreadable nonsense?

They can't stop: someone is wrong on the internet [:)]

Edit: let's not forget how the first thread on the Coronavirus had to be moved from here to the WitP: AE board after here it degenerated into walls of texts that, if not completely, they were almost totally unrelated to the topic.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The Blitz through Spain and Gibraltar took place in 1940. Rommel is going to fall back to Tripoli. No reason for them not to go ahead with it - just to get de Gaulle off their backs.

warspite1

Right so we at last have a sort of start of a timeline. Thank-you.

I don’t understand what Rommel is doing at this point, why he is in Tripoli? and having fallen back from where?? And I'm sorry but I don’t get the de Gaulle reference either, but I'll ignore them for now and try and get started on the blitz through Spain and Turkey scenario.

So you believe the ‘blitz’ through Spain happens in 1940. When? How do you see this as coming about?

The defeat of France, in the timescale achieved, just isn’t expected by anyone. Here the Germans are in mid-June and French forces are being overrun everywhere. Reynaud hopes to get agreement for the government and as much of the military as possible to get to French North Africa, where General Nogues is itching to continue the fight. This would be based around the fleet (pretty much intact), an air force (essentially just as numerous as it was on May 10th) and as many of the circa 500,000 troops still free from German capture as would be possible to get away – plus whatever units are in other overseas territories. But Petain and Weygand have other ideas.

Hitler can’t believe his luck. He desperately wants to come to an agreement – one that will give the French a degree of sovereignty and so give French overseas possessions a legitimate government to rally to – and stay out of the clutches of Britain - but at the same time a large part of Northern France will be occupied in order to give the Germans a base from which to take the war to the British.

An armistice is agreed that takes effect on the 25th June 1940.

So, first questions/thoughts.

1. Everything has happened very fast since May 10th, and even quicker since the start of June. So what happens now? And I hope we can be realistic in timescales here. Hitler won't (as per historical) get his head around what is happening to the French, much less plan out his next moves. So he doesn't give his mind to this until the armistice is signed. Agreed?

2. In deciding on this Mediterranean strategy, are you suggesting that Hitler immediately realises that Britain can’t be invaded?

3. Presumably the German army and air force need time for rest and refit, replenishment etc.

4. Hitler will also need his generals to come up with plans for this Mediterranean strategy. Hitler will need to see Franco as clearly (as in real life) his initial wish would be for Franco to join the Axis.

5. We know that Franco can’t/won’t agree to Hitler’s request. So when are the German army sufficiently recuperated to take up their next assignment? What are we talking about – late July / early August?

6. But there is now a potential problem. For Operation Felix the thin corridor in Western France was no issue for a German army being invited in to Spain. But for the German blitz, that means a very narrow, mountainous front for the Spanish to defend. Thoughts?

7. What is happening in Britain at this point? There are no preparations being made for Sea Lion (and that is a welcome saving for Germany because the requisitioning of so many barges (largely from the River Rhine) was to have an adverse impact on the German economy that won’t now happen.

8. But this leaves Britain to re-build largely un-molested. Getting wind of German troop movements to southwest France, it seems likely that two things will happen. A) Reinforcement of Gibraltar with aircraft and troops. B) As British units are brought back up to strength, a reserve can be brought together to assist the Spanish as soon as the Germans set foot in the peninsular. Spanish Morocco could be used as a base for operations. The Canaries and the Balearics could be occupied by British troops, aircraft and a naval presence.

9. With a battle to be fought for Spain/Gibraltar, ill-advised side shows like Menace likely won’t happen in September.

10. So let’s say it’s July 1940. What do you envisage is happening in the Mediterranean east of Gibraltar?

[IslandInland]

This thread is great.

More, "personnel" comments please, to quote Curtis Lemay.

Lemay is heavily involved with TOAW, maybe IS TOAW , so it's good to see his vocab is beyond reproach.

[Bo Rearguard]

I did enjoy the way he spelled Cyprus back in post #74.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Franco would be expected to join a coalition that consisted entirely of Antifascists. Turkey would be expected to join a coalition that - in their area - consisted entirely of Slavs and Greeks. And the Germans could offer the Turks plenty of Greek and Slavic territories - Cypress and areas in Yugoslavia for example.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Bo Rearguard


I did enjoy the way he spelled Cyprus back in post #74.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Franco would be expected to join a coalition that consisted entirely of Antifascists. Turkey would be expected to join a coalition that - in their area - consisted entirely of Slavs and Greeks. And the Germans could offer the Turks plenty of Greek and Slavic territories - Cypress and areas in Yugoslavia for example.

He wants to send them trees from the US Southern swamps.

A reminder, the Turks don't want the Greeks nor the Slavs.

[Alfred]

All I see in this thread is thought bubble after thought bubble thrown out.  None based on any reality.  All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding of military considerations, completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints which good professional military planners incorporate into action.
 
The funniest thing in this thread is the oft repeated claim that commercial war game designers support this fantasy and therefore it isn't a fantasy.  Commercial war game designers are not professional military planners.  They have no experience in actually preparing realistic military plans.  Every single war game design is an abstraction of the real world constraints.  It cannot be otherwise.  Purchasers of commercial war games do not have the computing hardware to run all the real inputs which professional military planners have.  Commercial war games (particularly those dealing with WWII) reduce the delta disparity in capabilities of the opposing sides precisely in order to make the games playable and marketable.  All those uncritical believers that the Germans were destined for military success (the evidence shows a lot of luck delivered German victories) would not buy their WWII war games if they knew their "best" play will probably still result in defeat.
 
Let's look at a few elements of this fantasy.
 
Spain
 
1.  An entire German Army Group is proposed to "blitz" Spain.  In 1940, a weak German Army Group would be comprised of 3 x Armies, each Heer of 3 x Corps, each Korps of 2 x Divisions.  That is a minimum of 18 divisions.
 
2.  In 1940, a German attack on Spain can only be launched from the very narrow strip of French Atlantic coastline occupied by the Germans under their agreement with Vichy France.  You cannot efficiently attack with 18 divisions along such a narrow frontage.  Nor can you effectively attack over the Pyrenees.  The net result is that this Army Group would be essentially deployed in a column stretching bumper to bumper back to Biaritz, and some way towards Bordeaux.  There would be no element of surprise accompanying the attack.
 
3.  The Spanish army opposing the Germans is a 3 year battle hardened veteran army.  One which is equipped with some German equipment but more importantly has first hand knowledge of German tactics.  The Germans would not be up against the clueless, untested opponents they have faced to date.  Furthermore, there would be no dissension in Spain itself as Franco's internal opponents would also oppose the Germans, a fact evidenced by their actual participation in Maquis activities in France.
 
4.  Once the Germans reach San Sebastian, then what.
 
(a) does one Heer veer off to the right to capture the mining areas of Asturias all the way to Corunna with a view to then entering Portugal.  This thrust would be hemmed in by the Cantabrian mountains,
 
(b) another Heer heads south towards Madrid via Burgos, down through the Sierra de Guadarama.  Were talking about ski field areas, not terrain conducive to panzer operations.
 
(c) the third Heer turns left down the Ebro Valley towards Barcelona and Valencia.  At least this vector provides panzer friendly territory, as evidenced in the recent Spanish Civil War campaigns
 
Any idea how long it would take to reach Corunna, Madrid and Valencia?  Where talking about distances comparable in length to those traversed in the recently concluded French campaign.  Over terrain much less suitable for panzers.  Where the road infrastructure is much less extensive than that of northern France.  Against a battle hardened enemy not caught out by the meeting engagements which Gamelin accepted.  Surely the time frame would not be less than that of northern France, so a minimum of 6 weeks.  When is this operation going to start?  August at the earliest, realistically more likely September.  So we are looking at mid October 1940, and half of Spain (and most of Portugal too) is still to be attacked.  Attacked when the winter starts to arrive in the Meseta.  Yes Spain has lovely, warm beaches.  It also has extensive snowfalls.
 
5.  Attacking towards Cordoba, Seville and Granada is not much fun in October.  Assuming of course all organised resistance behind has been eliminated and it is possible to resume the attack in October.  There are some serious mountain ranges to get through.  But more importantly the Germans at the end of a long and vulnerable supply line back to the Rhine, are now moving into territory not too far from Gibraltar.  Only a fool would assume that whilst the Germans were moving down the peninsula, Churchill would do nothing.  Two obvious possibilities are:
 
(a) utilising naval mobility, land troops behind the lines back up north to sever the German supply lines.  combined with local guerrillas, you know the type which have been discounted as not amounting to anything thus no need for German garrisons taken out of the Army Group shwerpunckt
 
(b) reinforce Gibraltar and move out to the excellent defensive terrain provided by the Sierra Nevada.  This would be viewed by Franco as a friendly force for Britain can provide all the things which Germany can't.  Things like food and petrol.  Funny thing about a population which lacks food.  The civilians tend to get very angry.  These years are known in Spain as the hungry years for very good reason.  Admiral Canaris always opposed any German move into Spain because he understood the inability to provide food for the population.  Really Franco would have no option but to at least tolerate British military support to eject the Germans.
 
6.  Suggestion has been made that Spain would be pillaged.  That Spanish locomotives would be seized and sent back to Germany.  Small technical detail; ever considered the different railway gauges within Spain itself at the time, and then considered what the Germans ran on.  Of course such technical details aren't considered important.  Then there is the question of tungsten which Germany was heavily dependent on Spanish production.  Just how much of that would remain for importation into Germany after invading Spain.  The historical record is not good of Germany extracting captured resources but heck, again why bother with such a piddling detail when there are all those obsolete PzII to be sent forward with the German equivalent of a "tally ho and jolly good fun" mindset.
 
7.  Assume against the facts, that the Iberian peninsula is fully captured (that includes Gibraltar) before the end of 1940.  That definitely leaves the Azores. Madeira, Cape Verde Islands, and the Canaries out of German reach,  Wouldn't be long before they were under British control.  What a wonderful own goal kicked by the Germans themselves.  Instead of losing the Battle of the Atlantic in mid 1943, they get to lose it in early 1941 as the mid-Atlantic ASW gap is plugged and Donitz loses all those submarines 2 years earlier.  Again not a relevant consideration for the amateurs.  If it doesn't fit into the salt and pepper shakers being moved on the dinner table whilst holding a large glass of port scenario, it isn't relevant.
 
 
I'll stop here for now.  the Swiss cheese proposal for elsewhere can wait for another day.  When I've stopped laughing.
 
Alfred

[IslandInland]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

7.  Assume against the facts, that the Iberian peninsula is fully captured (that includes Gibraltar) before the end of 1940.  That definitely leaves the Azores. Madeira, Cape Verde Islands, and the Canaries out of German reach,  Wouldn't be long before they were under British control.  What a wonderful own goal kicked by the Germans themselves.  Instead of losing the Battle of the Atlantic in mid 1943, they get to lose it in early 1941 as the mid-Atlantic ASW gap is plugged and Donitz loses all those submarines 2 years earlier.  Again not a relevant consideration for the amateurs.  If it doesn't fit into the salt and pepper shakers being moved on the dinner table whilst holding a large glass of port scenario, it isn't relevant.


I'll stop here for now.  the Swiss cheese proposal for elsewhere can wait for another day.  When I've stopped laughing.

Alfred

Strategy at it's finest.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

All I see in this thread is thought bubble after thought bubble thrown out.  None based on any reality.  All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding of military considerations, completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints which good professional military planners incorporate into action.

The funniest thing in this thread is the oft repeated claim that commercial war game designers support this fantasy and therefore it isn't a fantasy.  Commercial war game designers are not professional military planners.  They have no experience in actually preparing realistic military plans.  Every single war game design is an abstraction of the real world constraints.  It cannot be otherwise.  Purchasers of commercial war games do not have the computing hardware to run all the real inputs which professional military planners have.  Commercial war games (particularly those dealing with WWII) reduce the delta disparity in capabilities of the opposing sides precisely in order to make the games playable and marketable.  All those uncritical believers that the Germans were destined for military success (the evidence shows a lot of luck delivered German victories) would not buy their WWII war games if they knew their "best" play will probably still result in defeat.

Let's look at a few elements of this fantasy.

Spain

1.  An entire German Army Group is proposed to "blitz" Spain.  In 1940, a weak German Army Group would be comprised of 3 x Armies, each Heer of 3 x Corps, each Korps of 2 x Divisions.  That is a minimum of 18 divisions.

2.  In 1940, a German attack on Spain can only be launched from the very narrow strip of French Atlantic coastline occupied by the Germans under their agreement with Vichy France.  You cannot efficiently attack with 18 divisions along such a narrow frontage.  Nor can you effectively attack over the Pyrenees.  The net result is that this Army Group would be essentially deployed in a column stretching bumper to bumper back to Biaritz, and some way towards Bordeaux.  There would be no element of surprise accompanying the attack.

3.  The Spanish army opposing the Germans is a 3 year battle hardened veteran army.  One which is equipped with some German equipment but more importantly has first hand knowledge of German tactics.  The Germans would not be up against the clueless, untested opponents they have faced to date.  Furthermore, there would be no dissension in Spain itself as Franco's internal opponents would also oppose the Germans, a fact evidenced by their actual participation in Maquis activities in France.

4.  Once the Germans reach San Sebastian, then what.

(a) does one Heer veer off to the right to capture the mining areas of Asturias all the way to Corunna with a view to then entering Portugal.  This thrust would be hemmed in by the Cantabrian mountains,

(b) another Heer heads south towards Madrid via Burgos, down through the Sierra de Guadarama.  Were talking about ski field areas, not terrain conducive to panzer operations.

(c) the third Heer turns left down the Ebro Valley towards Barcelona and Valencia.  At least this vector provides panzer friendly territory, as evidenced in the recent Spanish Civil War campaigns

Any idea how long it would take to reach Corunna, Madrid and Valencia?  Where talking about distances comparable in length to those traversed in the recently concluded French campaign.  Over terrain much less suitable for panzers.  Where the road infrastructure is much less extensive than that of northern France.  Against a battle hardened enemy not caught out by the meeting engagements which Gamelin accepted.  Surely the time frame would not be less than that of northern France, so a minimum of 6 weeks.  When is this operation going to start?  August at the earliest, realistically more likely September.  So we are looking at mid October 1940, and half of Spain (and most of Portugal too) is still to be attacked.  Attacked when the winter starts to arrive in the Meseta.  Yes Spain has lovely, warm beaches.  It also has extensive snowfalls.

5.  Attacking towards Cordoba, Seville and Granada is not much fun in October.  Assuming of course all organised resistance behind has been eliminated and it is possible to resume the attack in October.  There are some serious mountain ranges to get through.  But more importantly the Germans at the end of a long and vulnerable supply line back to the Rhine, are now moving into territory not too far from Gibraltar.  Only a fool would assume that whilst the Germans were moving down the peninsula, Churchill would do nothing.  Two obvious possibilities are:

(a) utilising naval mobility, land troops behind the lines back up north to sever the German supply lines.  combined with local guerrillas, you know the type which have been discounted as not amounting to anything thus no need for German garrisons taken out of the Army Group shwerpunckt

(b) reinforce Gibraltar and move out to the excellent defensive terrain provided by the Sierra Nevada.  This would be viewed by Franco as a friendly force for Britain can provide all the things which Germany can't.  Things like food and petrol.  Funny thing about a population which lacks food.  The civilians tend to get very angry.  These years are known in Spain as the hungry years for very good reason.  Admiral Canaris always opposed any German move into Spain because he understood the inability to provide food for the population.  Really Franco would have no option but to at least tolerate British military support to eject the Germans.

6.  Suggestion has been made that Spain would be pillaged.  That Spanish locomotives would be seized and sent back to Germany.  Small technical detail; ever considered the different railway gauges within Spain itself at the time, and then considered what the Germans ran on.  Of course such technical details aren't considered important.  Then there is the question of tungsten which Germany was heavily dependent on Spanish production.  Just how much of that would remain for importation into Germany after invading Spain.  The historical record is not good of Germany extracting captured resources but heck, again why bother with such a piddling detail when there are all those obsolete PzII to be sent forward with the German equivalent of a "tally ho and jolly good fun" mindset.

7.  Assume against the facts, that the Iberian peninsula is fully captured (that includes Gibraltar) before the end of 1940.  That definitely leaves the Azores. Madeira, Cape Verde Islands, and the Canaries out of German reach,  Wouldn't be long before they were under British control.  What a wonderful own goal kicked by the Germans themselves.  Instead of losing the Battle of the Atlantic in mid 1943, they get to lose it in early 1941 as the mid-Atlantic ASW gap is plugged and Donitz loses all those submarines 2 years earlier.  Again not a relevant consideration for the amateurs.  If it doesn't fit into the salt and pepper shakers being moved on the dinner table whilst holding a large glass of port scenario, it isn't relevant.


I'll stop here for now.  the Swiss cheese proposal for elsewhere can wait for another day.  When I've stopped laughing.

Alfred

A very good analysis, as always.