Drongo wrote:This is another 4 x 10 set of test results using the current WitP Alpha.
Same situation -
2 bases in adjacent locations to minimise additional fatigue and "operational" losses on an attacker so as to give a better balanced test. No radar.
2 squadrons of P-40Es (24 each) vs 2 squadrons of A6M2s (set to 24 each).
As before, both side's squadrons have identical leaders (60 leadership and 60 skill), squadron experience (60) and experience spread (ie both range from 50 to 70 experience with the majority being 55-65 - no hot shot pilots present). Both side's squadrons have 99 morale and 15 fatigue. Both sides tended to end the day of combat with a squadron average of around 10 fatigue, regardless of who attacked who.
Engagement conditions - weather always clear, altitude for all is 10,000 ft. % are set so that 36 a/c will engage 36 a/c, one side defending against the other sweeping. Test is restarted from scratch after every combat.
Results (all losses show shot down only, no damaged):
1) A6M2s sweep
Losses:
Jp US
3 for 6
7 for 4
2 for 2
3 for 4
4 for 1
6 for 7
5 for 5
5 for 5
4 for 3
2 for 1
*******
41 for 38
*******
2) A6M2s sweep
Losses:
Jp US
2 for 3
4 for 5
7 for 1
5 for 3
7 for 4
3 for 3
4 for 4
8 for 4
4 for 4
6 for 1
*******
50 for 32
*******
3) P-40Es Sweep
Losses:
Jp US
3 for 7
2 for 1
2 for 5
2 for 0
4 for 6
3 for 3
4 for 2
2 for 6
4 for 6
1 for 1
*******
27 for 37
*******
4) P-40Es sweep
Losses:
Jap US
2 for 2
1 for 7
2 for 3
5 for 2
2 for 10
0 for 5
5 for 8
3 for 3
2 for 4
4 for 4
*******
26 for 48
*******
Final total
***********
144 A6M2s shot down for 155 P-40Es = (approx) 1 : 1 kill ratio when no apparent advantage is present for either side.
***********
Note the apparent trend that appears to favour the defender (observation only).
Edit Note: I have corrected a transposing of labels which occured in the F4F-4 vs A6M2 test post. After this correction, that test too shows a trend of kill ratios improving when performing defensive missions.
OK, after carefully reading the question

, here are the stats (boring I know, but a less subjective method of assessing these things than perception from observation).
Taking 36 a/c engaged each side, out of total forces of 48 a/c each:
The overall average losses from 40 simulations are (Jn:US) 3.6:3.9, or 10%:10.6% of those engaged, with Standard deviations of 1.8:2.2. Thus (approximately), losses are 10% +/- 10% on each side. Against the total forces, these are 7.5% - heavy for sustained combat, but this models sweeps that actually engaged, so maybe not out of court.
When we split by attacker, we get:
Jn attacks, total losses (Jn:US again) 4.6:3.9 (or 12.8%:10.8%), the SDs are 1.8:1.7
US attacks gives 2.7:4.3 (7.5%:11.9%), SDs 1.3:2.6.
The first thing that strikes me here is that the SDs are scaling pro-rata with the mean losses, so we seem to be looking at a similar distribution of losses here. (Which means no one is 'guaranteed' victories - if the results came out with a mean of 6, SD of 1, they are always going to lose more than say 4 each combat, assuming normal distributions.
Looking at the attackers results (irrespective of nationality - i.e. assuming the a/c are equal and the tactical situation wins) gives means of 4.4 losses to the attacker, and 3.1 to the defender. In addition, to these (true means). the SDs are (attacker:defender) 2.2:1.6.
Looking at the distribution of wins/draws/losses in the result of the combats (i.e.who kills more than the enemy), we get 16 Jn wins, 11 draws, 13 US wins. These are split as 5Jn, 9 US, 6 draws when Jn sweeps, and 11Jn, 4 US, 5 draws when US sweeps.
Lets look at outliers. From the SD's above you cant have absolute outliers on the low side (bounded by 0 losses), so let's take a high outlier as 7 or higher (roughly +2SD above the overall mean). This gives 4Jn to 5US. Interestingly, all bar one of these (a US one) happened to the attacking side. Is it possible that the difference between attack and defence is that the attacker can occasionally lose big? Excluding any combat where either side lost 7 or more gives overall mean losses of 3.5:3 (attacker:defender). So although not the whole answer, the 'large loss' factor is partly why attacker losses are higher.
In deference to certain people, what about the size of the large loss events for each nationality? Jn has 1x8, 3x7, whilst US has 1x10, 1x8, 3x7. Ah - bias! Alternatively, the only difference is the US had a 10 loss event, the Jn didn't:sleep: Anyone still reading?
Now, what does this all tell me? The overall losses are broadly equal (1.08 in favour of JN). This ratio could be explained by the one battle where the US lose 10 (total losses would be 142:145 without this one). Attacking seems to be more than 25% more dangerous than average (or 50% more dangerous than defending), but there is a wide spread. About 10% of the time, one side will suffer high losses, the remainder is all less than 20% of those engaged. About 15% of the time, combined losses are less than 4 a/c (or less than 6% of the total aircraft on both sides
The model has lots going on, and I suspect the sample should be larger to ensure the results are stable, however, much to my surprise, I am not too bothered by these results. If anyone finds this level of detail useful, I will do it on the F4F post (properly!)
Conclusion on the method: 1)we must do 50:50 attack/defence tests when comparing a/c.
2) 40 tests (unfortunately) is a minimum I think (ideally you should do them in batches of say 10 attack, 10 defence, checking the cumulative means and SDs until stability is achieved to say 2DP).
3) we need historical info in huge quantities (individual actions in enough detail to deem them relevant, and calculate mean losses, and extremes etc, otherwise we will get bogged in a very subjective arguement again :rolleyes:
And now back to our usual scheduled argument...