The question to ask about The Italians

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Air Superiority. Flights over England.

warspite1

Not sure why you can’t get the phases of such a key battle right but doesn’t bode well

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm talking about Stukas.

warspite1

Okay, you go with the stukas. Ignore torpedo carrying aircraft, they weren’t important.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm sure the US doesn't go to war without being attacked.

warspite1

Nice attempt at a side step there. The question was what does Japan do? Japan does what she did in real life. She is faced with having to withdraw from China. She won’t do that, she can’t do that. She needs oil and putting the US Fleet (so they hoped) out of action would give them time to do that.

But you are desperate for this scenario to work, so you need everyone to act how they didn’t in the real war - with no plausible reason.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Well, the Spanish operation will go off before Compass. So he will be aware of that. And therein would be the basis for falling back.

warspite1

Again, just making it all up as you go along. What is the relevance of Spain before Compass? The invasion of Egypt was before Ochi Day – so what? This is about whether Mussolini feels he’s being left out in the cold. Historically he was – and we know how he reacted to that. There is no reason, no basis for you having Mussolini acting differently now.

And what on earth are you talking about “the basis for falling back”???? Genuinely, genuinely just think about the scenario for a nano second. Real life Mussolini pushes Graziani to move on Egypt and threatens to sack him if he doesn’t. Now, in your scenario he has the added ability to kick Graziani black and blue. “The British will have their hands full holding onto Gibraltar – so get the hell over the border and invade Egypt”. In such a scenario he’s not ‘falling back’ anywhere. And Hitler – happy for Mussolini to conduct his parallel war wouldn’t ask him to – and would be met with short shrift if he did. What you suggest is absurd and totally without logic.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

If there is an ultimatum it won't be issued far enough in advance for the Spanish to make any military reaction.

warspite1

The relevance of the ultimatum is essentially that it all adds to the time before the Germans can begin their assault on Spain – and it ain’t gonna be in July. I don’t have what I would call a verified source for this, but I understand that Franco wasn’t stupid and as soon as Hitler started sniffing around, he increased the military presence on the Franco-Spanish border as a precaution. No reason to believe he wouldn’t do the same here.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The Spaniards will be caught flatfooted, just like everyone else in this period.

warspite1

No. You have a whole army group led by armoured formations heading into southwest France. For what? Occupation duty?? This is nominally neutral territory of course – but is nothing of the sort. Plenty of pro and anti-German as well as neutrals. The movement will be spotted and the Spaniards alerted. What the Spaniards will be able to do with that knowledge is of course limited, but they will have it nonetheless.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Not sure why you can’t get the phases of such a key battle right but doesn’t bode well

Eagle Day was mid-August. Regardless, they can't know the invasion if off till the weather breaks - sometime in October at the earliest.

Okay, you go with the stukas. Ignore torpedo carrying aircraft, they weren’t important.

I'm not ignoring torpedo elements. But you say they are impossible to obtain. I think that's garbage, but Stukas are good enough for all shipping other than BBs. And they can damage BBs - which take a long time to repair. And they still have some torpedo elements. They will be located near Gibraltar.

Nice attempt at a side step there. The question was what does Japan do? Japan does what she did in real life. She is faced with having to withdraw from China. She won’t do that, she can’t do that. She needs oil and putting the US Fleet (so they hoped) out of action would give them time to do that.

Circumstances have changed from historical. The Soviets are not heavily engaged and certainly not looking like they're about to collapse. And we now know that Japanese occupation of the Dutch East Indies will not trigger war with the US!

But you are desperate for this scenario to work, so you need everyone to act how they didn’t in the real war - with no plausible reason.

The scenario does work. Plenty of wargames say so. You're the one who's desperate. The Spanish are supermen! 21st Century guerrilla warfare! On and on.

What is the relevance of Spain before Compass?

It signals that the Germans are doing a Mediterranean plan. No point in a risky stab at the pyramids under those circumstances.

The relevance of the ultimatum is essentially that it all adds to the time before the Germans can begin their assault on Spain – and it ain’t gonna be in July. I don’t have what I would call a verified source for this, but I understand that Franco wasn’t stupid and as soon as Hitler started sniffing around, he increased the military presence on the Franco-Spanish border as a precaution. No reason to believe he wouldn’t do the same here.

No ultimatum and no delay.

No. You have a whole army group led by armoured formations heading into southwest France. For what? Occupation duty?? This is nominally neutral territory of course – but is nothing of the sort. Plenty of pro and anti-German as well as neutrals. The movement will be spotted and the Spaniards alerted. What the Spaniards will be able to do with that knowledge is of course limited, but they will have it nonetheless.

I've explained over and over how impossible to detect such movements are - especially without air superiority. And even if detected, the Spanish will have no way to determine intent. It is completely expected that the Germans will move to occupy that area.

The Spanish will be caught flat-footed, just like everyone else in this period.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Stukas are easy to kill![:D]

Escorts.

What debilitating impact? The Soviet Union is not a democracy. If there is a debilitating impact then the Germans would suffer it as well.

No mass patriotism. And a clarion call for rebellion activity.

You are referring to something from the previous year that was before the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION!

A top secret conversation with the commander of the Pacific fleet. Not a political speech!

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Again, you know nothing about armoured warfare nor PMCS.

No. When or even whether to pause for a refit is an operational decision. Sometimes it makes sense, and sometimes it doesn't.
Remember that while you are refitting, your enemy is too. I guarantee that those German leaders that made the pause in Barbarossa regretted it for the rest of their lives.

And the Spanish operation could have had the freshest divisions from France, with the more heavily used put on the Channel border.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The beautiful weather off Norway at that time of year might have had something to do with it. Remember, the RAF used FROZEN LAKES for their aircraft.

Clear weather prevented the RN from intercepting the Kriegsmarine?! How can the Kriegsmarine operate but the RN can't?!

Again, this operation could never have been accomplished without strategic surprise.

Oh, and, by the way, this operation put a German force on the Soviet Border at Murmansk. Still no reaction from Stalin.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Eagle Day was mid-August. Regardless, they can't know the invasion if off till the weather breaks - sometime in October at the earliest.

warspite1

The British can know whether an invasion (which many didn't believe anyway) is serious, by the measures being taken by the enemy, the number of aircraft employed, the number of barges in the various channel ports etc.

How do the Germans prove to the British that they are serious without taking serious steps? You've said the Germans are going for a Mediterranean strategy but in real life the Germans got severely mauled using almost their entire Luftwaffe. Using less aircraft (an air fleet will be needed for Spain) as a decoy in half arsed attempts to make the British believe an invasion is coming won't wash if the Germans employed are failing to achieve anywhere near the results historically - and historically they weren't enough. This buggers muddle is a receipe for loads more German casualties though.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm not ignoring torpedo elements. But you say they are impossible to obtain.

warspite1

Where did I say they were impossible? The Luftwaffe had torpedoes. Why would I say something that was used and was real was impossible? I think you need to pay attention.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Circumstances have changed from historical. The Soviets are not heavily engaged and certainly not looking like they're about to collapse. And we now know that Japanese occupation of the Dutch East Indies will not trigger war with the US!

warspite1

What hasn't changed from the historical? Japan won't back out of China, and Japan needs oil. Its main oil supply is about to be cut off. Japan will choose war. You like to say the Axis are all joined up and on the same page - unless it doesn't suit your narrative. So now, when it suits, the Japanese have no idea that Barbarossa is happening in 1942? But regardless of what happens with Germany, according to you Stalin won't move a muscle. BUT conveniently, if Japan moves on FIC then Stalin is going all out for a war in the Far East....... No, he's not. The Japanese proceed into FIC in due course, the US embargo oil and the US are in the war.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The scenario does work. Plenty of wargames say so. The Spanish are supermen! 21st Century guerrilla warfare! On and on.

warspite1

Back in wow territory. "The scenario does work" because a bunch of war gamers told you so. Notice the accent on the 'does'. No room for doubts, ifs or buts. You've played it out and therefore it must work. Thanks. I'm sure Barbarossa was played out.... as was BoB.... as was Midway.... as was just about every campaign that went tits up. Maybe they didn't have you to war game and that was where they went wrong.

And I have not said the Spanish were supermen as well you know. I do not agree with the faintly absurd notion that the Spanish were going to cause the German army too much trouble. But yes, I do believe to the extent that partisans are a hornets nest, this Spanish nest is going to be mighty cheesed off. But you've dismissed it because it doesn't fit with your narrative, which is strange when you look at Hitler's own views on the subject.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

It signals that the Germans are doing a Mediterranean plan. No point in a risky stab at the pyramids under those circumstances.

warspite1

So everyone is working towards Hitler's victory. No dissent, no divergence of purpose. The Italians and Japanese are all working as one, like clock-work, to do Hitler's bidding. The tripartite pact in total unity working for the good of Germany as though it were a two player game of World In Flames. You know like really happened...... News flash: The Dominions of the Commonwealth acted for themselves, the Allied countries acted for themselves, the countries of the Axis acted for themselves. It's what nation states do. Oh sure, there will be times when toeing the line is necessary, but July 1940 wasn't that time for the Axis.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No ultimatum and no delay.

warspite1

Correct. Apart from the ultimatum, which would follow Franco's initial refusal to join in on a voluntary basis, and of course the previous delay caused by the fact that the Germans weren't even considering beating France by the end of June, let alone have any thought of attacking - or being in a position to attack - Gibraltar at almost any point during Red. For one thing they didn't know the French were going for an armistice rather than a fighting retreat to the coasts and from thence to Algeria.

You just love to use hindsight. But it's wrong.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I've explained over and over how impossible to detect such movements are - especially without air superiority. And even if detected, the Spanish will have no way to determine intent. It is completely expected that the Germans will move to occupy that area.

The Spanish will be caught flat-footed, just like everyone else in this period.

warspite1

The Spanish will know they are coming. As said, what they can do about it is less certain. But that is a reflection of their armed forces, the generally state of the country and the almost complete lack of oil. It is not a reflection of the fact they weren't tipped off.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Okay, you go with the stukas. Ignore torpedo carrying aircraft, they weren’t important.

I'm not ignoring torpedo elements. But you say they are impossible to obtain. I think that's garbage, but Stukas are good enough for all shipping other than BBs. And they can damage BBs - which take a long time to repair. And they still have some torpedo elements. They will be located near Gibraltar.

Stukas are easy to kill, that is why they were withdrawn from the Battle of Britain. Are you incapable of comprehending that?

Nice attempt at a side step there. The question was what does Japan do? Japan does what she did in real life. She is faced with having to withdraw from China. She won’t do that, she can’t do that. She needs oil and putting the US Fleet (so they hoped) out of action would give them time to do that.

Circumstances have changed from historical. The Soviets are not heavily engaged and certainly not looking like they're about to collapse. And we now know that Japanese occupation of the Dutch East Indies will not trigger war with the US!

Not true, we don't know that. The Pacific Fleet was moved to Hawaii for a reason. The DEI was not like Vichy Indochina.

But you are desperate for this scenario to work, so you need everyone to act how they didn’t in the real war - with no plausible reason.

The scenario does work. Plenty of wargames say so. You're the one who's desperate. The Spanish are supermen! 21st Century guerrilla warfare! On and on.

Wargames that we play are not real life. They can't make such a game true to life, it would be too complex and it would never sell.

What is the relevance of Spain before Compass?

It signals that the Germans are doing a Mediterranean plan. No point in a risky stab at the pyramids under those circumstances.

Little Bennie would still have done so. He did not want to be second fiddle nor irrevelant.

The relevance of the ultimatum is essentially that it all adds to the time before the Germans can begin their assault on Spain – and it ain’t gonna be in July. I don’t have what I would call a verified source for this, but I understand that Franco wasn’t stupid and as soon as Hitler started sniffing around, he increased the military presence on the Franco-Spanish border as a precaution. No reason to believe he wouldn’t do the same here.

No ultimatum and no delay.

But you previously stated ultimatum. There were only elements of a Panzer division on the border, you want them to attack? Why can't you get things straight? Oh, that's right, those good pharmaceuticals. [:'(]

No. You have a whole army group led by armoured formations heading into southwest France. For what? Occupation duty?? This is nominally neutral territory of course – but is nothing of the sort. Plenty of pro and anti-German as well as neutrals. The movement will be spotted and the Spaniards alerted. What the Spaniards will be able to do with that knowledge is of course limited, but they will have it nonetheless.

I've explained over and over how impossible to detect such movements are - especially without air superiority. And even if detected, the Spanish will have no way to determine intent. It is completely expected that the Germans will move to occupy that area.

The Spanish will be caught flat-footed, just like everyone else in this period.

Not everyone was caught flat footed.

I explained to you that the movements would be detected. The Spanish Maquis would have told the Spanish government about them, no airplanes needed. Basques live on both sides of the border, they would communicate with each other. You don't need to know intent if you see an army moving towards you. Unless they are also taking the good pharmaceuticals that you seem to be consuming.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The British can know whether an invasion (which many didn't believe anyway) is serious, by the measures being taken by the enemy, the number of aircraft employed, the number of barges in the various channel ports etc.

How do the Germans prove to the British that they are serious without taking serious steps? You've said the Germans are going for a Mediterranean strategy but in real life the Germans got severely mauled using almost their entire Luftwaffe. Using less aircraft (an air fleet will be needed for Spain) as a decoy in half arsed attempts to make the British believe an invasion is coming won't wash if the Germans employed are failing to achieve anywhere near the results historically - and historically they weren't enough. This buggers muddle is a receipe for loads more German casualties though.

Rubbish! They don't know what the invasion plan might involve. They might be planning a night invasion - the RAF wouldn't even be involved. "Darkest Hour" postulated fast motorboats as the invasion vector. They will never be able to abandon their coast till the weather breaks.

Where did I say they were impossible? The Luftwaffe had torpedoes. Why would I say something that was used and was real was impossible? I think you need to pay attention.

You threw a fit about them. But, if torpedo planes are now OK, great!

What hasn't changed from the historical?

The Soviets are not heavily engaged and certainly not looking like they're about to collapse.

Japan won't back out of China, and Japan needs oil. Its main oil supply is about to be cut off.

It's been cut off for quite a while (since their takeover of French Indochina. But they estimated then that they had two years of stocks. So, that's still left (and they were only getting 80% of their oil from the US, so 20% was still arriving).

Japan will choose war.

Not with the US while the Soviets are free and clear. As I said, they could try to take just the East Indies.

"The scenario does work" because a bunch of war gamers told you so.

Not wargamers. Famous wargame designers. Guys earning a living doing so. And note that SPI had the Spaniards right.

But yes, I do believe to the extent that partisans are a hornets nest, this Spanish nest is going to be mighty cheesed off.

I don't think guerrilla warfare was any more than an irritant in WWII. Everyone is thinking of how it has manifested itself in the Modern World.

And, let's talk about the Turks for a second: They had been being rolled by everyone under the sun for at least 50 years and had lost their entire empire. Yes, they had one shining moment at Gallipoli. But, after WWII, they sent a division to the Korean war. That division was....a piece of crap. At least one American General was sacked because he treated them as if they were an actual military unit - with disasterous results. By this time in world history, the Turks were probably about as militarily effective as the Arabs.

So everyone is working towards Hitler's victory.

No. I'm saying that when circumstances change, divergence from the historical narrative takes place.

Correct. Apart from the ultimatum, which would follow Franco's initial refusal to join in on a voluntary basis, and of course the previous delay caused by the fact that the Germans weren't even considering beating France by the end of June, let alone have any thought of attacking - or being in a position to attack - Gibraltar at almost any point during Red. For one thing they didn't know the French were going for an armistice rather than a fighting retreat to the coasts and from thence to Algeria.

You just love to use hindsight. But it's wrong.

Correct, they didn't know they would be so successful against the French. Yet they were fighting the BoB by August. (July if you believe some people).

The Spanish will know they are coming. As said, what they can do about it is less certain. But that is a reflection of their armed forces, the generally state of the country and the almost complete lack of oil. It is not a reflection of the fact they weren't tipped off.

Rubbish!

Did the RN bushwhack the amphibious invasion of Narvik? No.

Did the Dutch see an invasion coming? No.

Were the Allies taken completely by surprise by the German thrust through the Ardennes? Yes - twice in one war!!

Were the Soviets taken completely by surprise by Barbarossa? Yes - despite an enormous army on their border - in a conquered country.

Did Monty drop the 1st Airborne on top of the II SS Panzer Corps? Yes - despite total air superiority and the Dutch underground.

Is it perfectly reasonable for the Spaniards to expect Germans to be arriving in the coastal areas of France? Of course! They have to be occupied!

There is no way they're detecting anything.

[RangerJoe]

Where do we start![:@]

The Battle of Britain started in July, according to the British and the Germans. They should know, they were the ones fighting it.

Famous wargame designers? How many of them are/were military trained combat and staff officers? They would know a lot more.

A country would use infantry not armour to garrison an area. Lower quality infantry with less heavy equipment, much less than front line infantry units facing enemy combat units.

The Netherlands Dutch East Indies also cut of oil and fuel shipments to Japan. The Soviet Union was sending oil to Germany. So where was Japan buying oil from? The Arabs? They did not have much production at the time.

As far as the RN fighting the Kriegsmarine off Norway, read about Glowworm. The Captain of the Hipper recommended that the Captain of the Glowworm receive the Victoria Cross. It was awarded. Read about Warspite when he himself went into the Narvik area and helped wipe out half of the German destroyer force.

The Belgians and Dutch knew that the invasion was coming, but they did not want to believe it. Some units were caught unprepared plus the military did not have the best avail equipment.

The Soviets were told of the invasion by their won spies among others, Stalin chose not to believe them.

Monty had a big ego and did not want to be told that he was wrong. So soldiers paid with their lives and the war dragged on.-

Of course the Spaniards would expect a limited number of occupation troops to be in the border area but not an entire Army Group. There was no way that the would be surprised.

Did you Green button me?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Rubbish! They don't know what the invasion plan might involve. They might be planning a night invasion - the RAF wouldn't even be involved. "Darkest Hour" postulated fast motorboats as the invasion vector. They will never be able to abandon their coast till the weather breaks.

warspite1

No, it's not rubbish. The Germans are trying to put on a deception operation to make the British think an invasion is going to take place. For that to happen they need to obtain air superiority over the south coast. The Germans tried attacking convoys and came off worse (although Dowding was concerned at his own losses and sensibly decided he was wasn’t going to play that game anymore). If the Germans were going to knock the RAF out of the southeast of England (or pretend to do so) they were going to have to fight over England’s soil (with all the advantages that conferred to the defender).

We know the results – but you are going to have the Germans do this without about a third of their aircraft than they had historically. This smaller force either tries to eliminate the RAF (with all that means) or they don’t. If they don't, the British realise there is no invasion being planned - at least not in 1940. It's just one big stand-off and the British can start to think (within reason) about what to do with their forces as they build up.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

You threw a fit about them. But, if torpedo planes are now OK, great!

warspite1

No one threw a fit about anything. Once again you’ve simply failed to understand the point. You are launching whole manner of operations that will involve the Luftwaffe in anti-shipping operations. They have their real life day job in the North Sea and the Bay of Biscay, they are to be thrown into an attack in Spain, they will need to subdue Malta, they will need to get involved in Greece/Crete, they will be involved in the Eastern Mediterranean. I know you believe the Germans are superhuman, but anti-shipping operations are specialised, the men need training, they will take losses, those losses need replacing, they will need rest and refit as aircraft are taken out and replaced with better aircraft. All the normal requirements of war that you simply dismiss.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The Soviets are not heavily engaged and certainly not looking like they're about to collapse.

warspite1

….and the Japanese are heading to FIC on their way south and to Pearl.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

It's been cut off for quite a while (since their takeover of French Indochina. But they estimated then that they had two years of stocks. So, that's still left (and they were only getting 80% of their oil from the US, so 20% was still arriving).

warspite1

Once again you are all over the place chronologically. But regardless, and as said, the Japanese leaders of WWII were dumb as fence-posts, but they were not conducting national policy on the basis that the US would roll their eyes, give a cheeky grin and announce the end of the embargo as they didn’t really mean it.

Regardless of the nonsensical manner in which you have people behaving, as per real life, the moment Roosevelt announces the embargo, the British and Dutch are there too. You think 20% of Japan’s oil will be getting through? Behave yourself. Maybe 10-12% if they are lucky. When conversations come up about Italy - you can always rely on the 'oil' comment. People don't tend to say the same about Japan - which is strange. Ever considered why the Japanese use of their battlewagons wasn't as extensive as it should have been? You seriously expect Japan to be taking ages to decide on her next move while waging war in China, keeping a watching brief in Manchuria and planning how to obtain resources in the south, and all the while the Japanese hope that the US will change their mind? No. Of course not, and in the same way - and as per historically, Japan had to attack the US because they couldn't guarantee the US wouldn't come in if Japan attacked Britain/NEI.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Not with the US while the Soviets are free and clear. As I said, they could try to take just the East Indies.

warspite1

Yes they could. But they won’t or why didn’t they do so historically? They felt they needed to take out the USN for a reason, and that reason remains valid. We’ve already granted Hitler wiggle room to act anti-historically, but now you want the Japanese to do the same? No.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Not wargamers. Famous wargame designers. Guys earning a living doing so. And note that SPI had the Spaniards right.

warspite1

As has been shown, designing a wargame isn’t war planning. I could go into detail but Alfred has already made the point adequately.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I don't think guerrilla warfare was any more than an irritant in WWII. Everyone is thinking of how it has manifested itself in the Modern World.

warspite1

I think you are missing the woods for the trees. Spain will not take this utter betrayal, this Napoleonesque stab in the back lightly and they will fight – and continue to fight once the regular army are beaten. As said, the reason why this is a real problem for Hitler – and Hitler knew this – was that this will mean German troops having to garrison Spain and Spanish Morocco – possibly Portugal too. Hitler doesn’t need this dispersal of forces with one eye on Barbarossa. Factor in too the loss of the Atlantic islands. The Germans can try and occupy these - that would be fun to watch.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No. I'm saying that when circumstances change, divergence from the historical narrative takes place.

warspite1

No you are not, because circumstances haven’t changed at this stage. It’s July and the Germans are rest and refitting for a likely move into Spain if they can’t get Franco to play ball. As per real life, Mussolini is keen to ensure his forces get the glory befitting his New Roman Empire; they will march on Egypt as soon as Graziani gets his butt in gear. Apart from the fact Hitler is encroaching in the south which Il Duce is a little miffed about (Mussolini will probably demand some Italian contribution in Spain (as he did for Battle of Britain)) Mussolini will also conduct his parallel war. Hitler has no reason to dissuade him from doing so and won't attempt to. To re-dress the German move into Spain, Mussolini starts to mull over plans for Greece or maybe even Yugoslavia too.....

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Correct, they didn't know they would be so successful against the French.

warspite1

I am glad we are agreed. August it is.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

There is no way they're detecting anything.

warspite1

I am not going to spend any more time debating about the non-point that is “did the Spanish know the Germans were going to attack?” You say no, I say yes (whether through the French, their own spies, Canaris or the British it doesn’t matter). The reason I am not spending any more time is that I’ve already said I am not setting great store by this one way or the other. The Germans will defeat the Spanish, it won’t be as easy as you think – but neither are the Spanish going to hold off the Germans in the mountains of the north for too long, surprise or not.

[GaryChildress]

ORIGINAL: Zap

Having the similar quality equipment as the Germans and tanks equal to Panzer IVs would the War outcome been significantly different?

My, answer is Yes! the war may have actually been won by the axis side. In the least, it would have carried on for some years more.

I'm not the expert by far on this stuff but from what little I know, it seems to me that the only thing that could have potentially given the Axis victory (or perhaps a stalemate) in WW2 was if Germany hadn't attacked the USSR. With all those men and all that material focused on the Western Front, I would think they would have given the Western Allies quite a run for our money. I suppose, with the aid of the US, the UK may have eventually won but even then, it seems to me like it would have been a little bit iffy, I would think. Or at least maybe it would have protracted the war another few years or so or even ended with the Western Allies negotiating peace or something.

But like I say I'm no expert by far and more knowledgeable people like Warspite1 are welcome to correct me if I'm wrong.

[GaryChildress]

Of course, there's also the issue of the Atomic Bomb. It doesn't seem like Germany or Japan got very far in their quests for it, however, once the US had it, then I would think it would have been a game-changer, leading either to an Allied victory or else bringing the Axis to the negotiating table (although, unconditional surrender maybe wouldn't have been a realistic option for the Western Allies to pursue at that point.)

So even then, maybe there really was no way that the Axis could have won. But, of course, I think most of us here today are considerably happier in the fact that they didn't.

[RangerJoe]

Japan may have been a lot closer to The Bomb than most people think. One program was wiped out by American bombing but the other one moved to North Korea - and might have been able to detonate one in an underground test on an island. I do believe that all of the equipment was captured by the Soviets and I am not sure where the people involved went.

I do believe Heisenberg helped to deflect the German program.

[GaryChildress]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Japan may have been a lot closer to The Bomb than most people think. One program was wiped out by American bombing but the other one moved to North Korea - and might have been able to detonate one in an underground test on an island. I do believe that all of the equipment was captured by the Soviets and I am not sure where the people involved went.

I do believe Heisenberg helped to deflect the German program.

Most of the greatest minds in physics at that point were aligned with the Western Allies and even then producing a bomb didn't come too easily. They were only able to build two devices at first. Did Japan have the same intellectual capital at their disposal?

[Bo Rearguard]

ORIGINAL: GaryChildress
Most of the greatest minds in physics at that point were aligned with the Western Allies and even then producing a bomb didn't come too easily. They were only able to build two devices at first. Did Japan have the same intellectual capital at their disposal?

Japan had some capable physicists, including Yukawa Hideki, who predicted the existence of the meson and would be awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1949. Physicists Arakatsu Bunsaku and Hagiwara Tokutaro were performing cyclotron experiments as early as 1939.

However, obtaining uranium was the biggest stumbling block Japan faced. The most promising mine was near Seoul, but it was found that even at maximum production the mine could only produce a mere 10 kg of refined uranium oxide per month. Some 4,500 tons of tin mining tailings from Malaya were shipped to Japan but proved to contain little uranium. Another 100 pounds of uranium was obtained from Japanese ceramics shops, while 200 pounds were allegedly obtained on the Shanghai black market.

Finally, the Japanese Ambassador to Germany arranged for two tons of pitchblende and 1,200 pounds of uranium oxide to be sent to Japan by submarine, but the first submarine was sunk en route and the second submarine(a German U-boat) surrendered to the U.S. Navy upon the German capitulation. The Japanese officers on board committed suicide, the Germans just surrendered.

So, no uranium...and ultimately no bomb.

[GaryChildress]

ORIGINAL: wodin

ORIGINAL: Zap

Having the similar quality equipment as the Germans and tanks equal to Panzer IVs would the War outcome been significantly different?

My, answer is Yes! the war may have actually been won by the axis side. In the least, it would have carried on for some years more.

Well if Germany had treated it's Allies, aswell as the people who fell under German controlled territory esp in places like the Ukraine as an equal, and then kitted them out with the same equipment as they used, then yes, I think it's more than likely Germany would have won the War.

That's a good point too. Although, I wonder if it would have really made that much of an impact as to give Germany victory? Germany lost by a pretty large margin to the combined efforts of the USSR and the Western Allies. I've heard arguments that even if Moscow had fallen the Soviets wouldn't have capitulated. And the US was pretty much untouchable for the most part.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: GaryChildress

ORIGINAL: Zap

Having the similar quality equipment as the Germans and tanks equal to Panzer IVs would the War outcome been significantly different?

My, answer is Yes! the war may have actually been won by the axis side. In the least, it would have carried on for some years more.

I'm not the expert by far on this stuff but from what little I know, it seems to me that the only thing that could have potentially given the Axis victory (or perhaps a stalemate) in WW2 was if Germany hadn't attacked the USSR. With all those men and all that material focused on the Western Front, I would think they would have given the Western Allies quite a run for our money. I suppose, with the aid of the US, the UK may have eventually won but even then, it seems to me like it would have been a little bit iffy, I would think. Or at least maybe it would have protracted the war another few years or so or even ended with the Western Allies negotiating peace or something.

warspite1

The war in Europe was decided on the Eastern Front, so one can reasonably ask what would have happened if Hitler hadn't attacked the Soviet Union. But it's the wrong question.

Lebensraum was Hitler's raison d'etre. Germany was to be self sufficient like the US and never again to be put into a position where she could be blockaded.

For this to be achieved Hitler didn't need territories in Western Europe - attacking the west was simply a means to an end - he wanted the bread basket of the Ukraine, the coal of the Don, the oil of the Caucasus and all the other myriad resources found in the east.

So for Hitler, NOT attacking the Soviet Union was not really an option.

[GaryChildress]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: GaryChildress

ORIGINAL: Zap

Having the similar quality equipment as the Germans and tanks equal to Panzer IVs would the War outcome been significantly different?

My, answer is Yes! the war may have actually been won by the axis side. In the least, it would have carried on for some years more.

I'm not the expert by far on this stuff but from what little I know, it seems to me that the only thing that could have potentially given the Axis victory (or perhaps a stalemate) in WW2 was if Germany hadn't attacked the USSR. With all those men and all that material focused on the Western Front, I would think they would have given the Western Allies quite a run for our money. I suppose, with the aid of the US, the UK may have eventually won but even then, it seems to me like it would have been a little bit iffy, I would think. Or at least maybe it would have protracted the war another few years or so or even ended with the Western Allies negotiating peace or something.

warspite1

The war in Europe was decided on the Eastern Front, so one can reasonably ask what would have happened if Hitler hadn't attacked the Soviet Union. But it's the wrong question.

Lebensraum was Hitler's raison d'etre. Germany was to be self sufficient like the US and never again to be put into a position where she could be blockaded.

For this to be achieved Hitler didn't need territories in Western Europe - attacking the west was simply a means to an end - he wanted the bread basket of the Ukraine, the coal of the Don, the oil of the Caucasus and all the other myriad resources found in the east.

So for Hitler, NOT attacking the Soviet Union was not really an option.

Good points. Although, I would think pretty much anything is an option to a head of state with absolute power. Had Hitler not been as aggressive and played his cards more prudently could he have won? Could he have maintained neutral relations with the Soviets and perhaps obtained some of the resources he needed through trade to continue the war? I sort of wonder how long Germany would have been able to hold out against the Western Allies alone just on the resources available to it in Europe? If Germany hadn't attacked the USSR, could it have gotten what it needed though trade with the Soviets? Sort of like the resources they obtained through Sweden. And with that kind of trade, could they have held their own against the Western Allies? Or at least ground things down to a stalemate? Or could Germany have focused more resources on and won in Africa and pushed further into the oil and resources of the Middle East?

Although, I suppose Germany probably lacked sufficiently in the merchant marine department so capturing the Middle East maybe wouldn't do a lot of good as far as being able to move the resources?

[Bo Rearguard]

ORIGINAL: GaryChildress


Good points. Although, I would think pretty much anything is an option to a head of state with absolute power. Had Hitler not been as aggressive and played his cards more prudently could he have won? Could he have maintained neutral relations with the Soviets and perhaps obtained some of the resources he needed through trade to continue the war? I sort of wonder how long Germany would have been able to hold out against the Western Allies alone just on the resources available to it in Europe? If Germany hadn't attacked the USSR, could it have gotten what it needed though trade with the Soviets? Sort of like the resources they obtained through Sweden. And with that kind of trade, could they have held their own against the Western Allies? Or at least ground things down to a stalemate? Or could Germany have focused more resources on and won in Africa and pushed further into the oil and resources of the Middle East?

All these alternate strategies require Hitler not to be Hitler. Hitler told one of his generals in June 1940 that the victories in western Europe "finally freed his hands for his important real task: the showdown with Bolshevism" It was the goal he had been working towards his entire political life.

You would pretty much have to kidnap the real Hitler and replace him with a real convincing body double to ever get Germany off this course.

[GaryChildress]

ORIGINAL: Bo Rearguard

ORIGINAL: GaryChildress


Good points. Although, I would think pretty much anything is an option to a head of state with absolute power. Had Hitler not been as aggressive and played his cards more prudently could he have won? Could he have maintained neutral relations with the Soviets and perhaps obtained some of the resources he needed through trade to continue the war? I sort of wonder how long Germany would have been able to hold out against the Western Allies alone just on the resources available to it in Europe? If Germany hadn't attacked the USSR, could it have gotten what it needed though trade with the Soviets? Sort of like the resources they obtained through Sweden. And with that kind of trade, could they have held their own against the Western Allies? Or at least ground things down to a stalemate? Or could Germany have focused more resources on and won in Africa and pushed further into the oil and resources of the Middle East?

All these alternate strategies require Hitler not to be Hitler. Hitler told one of his generals in June 1940 that the victories in western Europe "finally freed his hands for his important real task: the showdown with Bolshevism" It was the goal he had been working towards his entire political life.

You would pretty much have kidnap the real Hitler and replace him with a real convincing body double to ever get Germany off this course.

Yeah. I suppose it would be delving pretty far into the nether realms of alternative history.