The question to ask about The Italians

[Curtis Lemay]

Firstly you totally, and pointedly, ignore the question of what the Luftwaffe are actually doing in Northern France. No detail, nothing. They must be doing something, right? But what?

Actually, they don't have to do anything at all. Just their presence is a threat. But, they could be "demonstrating". It's a ruse used to make an enemy thing you're going to do something you actually have no intension of doing.

But you also continue to mention a night invasion. I can’t have understood correctly what you are suggesting so I’ll await clarification before commenting further. I don’t know the relevance of this, what a night invasion is and who is contemplating this...

I had just explained it, and you quoted that explanation. I'll repeat: A night invasion is the opposite of a day invasion.

Are you being ironic? Is that a joke? What do you mean by this?

?? After they miraculously rescued the BEF from Dunkirk, they didn't insert it right back into France further West in a misguided attempt to save France. Neither would they be inserting it into Spain.

As for aircraft production, you need Goering to understand what aircraft he needs and the training required to man them. There is very little in Goering’s performance in World War II to suggest he has the intelligence to grasp what Hitler will be asking of him and what that means for his Luftwaffe.

Stukas. He has to produce Stukas. Pretty simple.

There is also the added complication of his non-relationship with the Kriegsmarine – pretty important in the real war – far, far more important in this alternate scenario.

What does the Kriegsmarine have to do with this scenario?

You are right, this is getting repetitive beyond belief. You appear confused over some of the chronology (certainly when the oil embargo started)

You're right. I had it wrong about the date of the embargo. I thought it was upon the initial coup in FIC. But it was much later when they actually occupied it. So, that's much better for my argument: Their stockpiles will easily last another year of waiting for Barbarossa.

Well, I think it’s obvious – and hopefully even you can concede – that Stalin is not going to get involved in the Far East. He only signed a treaty with Japan in April and with Germany seemingly winning everywhere on the European continent, there is no way Stalin will take any risks.

Including the monstrous risk of a preemptive war with Germany. [:D]

Of course Stalin knowing this and what the Japanese think they know can be two different things.

Exactly. They didn't feel free to attack the US till Barbarossa occurred.

The Japanese and the USSR signed a peace treaty in April 1941. The Japanese are free to move south but of course there is no guarantee it will be safe to do so.

In real life in June 1941 Germany invaded the USSR and that meant that the Japanese could be certain that the USSR would not be attacking Manchuria. Hence the move the following month in seizing the airfields in FIC.

So, without Barbarossa, there wouldn't even be the occupation of the FIC, meaning no oil embargo at all!

So what are the options?

1. Leave China. We know they won’t.

2. Don’t leave China but don’t take aggressive action against the US, British and Dutch. In deciding on this path they must accept the current difficult economic and military situation and have good grounds to believe the Americans will later up the ante too. We know they can’t accept this – they need the embargoed materials and the longer they leave it the less chance they will have of taking action because of the effects the existing embargo have had in the meantime.

3. Launch the southern attack anyway, starting with the capture of airfields in FIC (which leads to the freezing of assets and the oil embargo) and then attack either the British and/or Dutch and/or the US.

4. Wait it out for Barbarossa to occur sometime later, relying on their stockpile.

5. Just occupy the DEI, without any attack on the UK or US.

You are desperate for the US not to join the war in December 1941 so you have contrived a set of moves that simply defy logic and beggar belief.

You are desperate for the US to join the war in December 1941 so you have contrived a set of moves that simply defy logic and beggar belief.[/quote]

Barbarossa was the tipping point for the occupation of the FIC and Pearl Harbor.

Same applies to Mussolini. I am not going to repeat all that I have said about why Mussolini won’t act the way you want him to - all of which remains firmly relevant. But you appear to believe now that the plan is one big trap to lure the British into Libya…..

What a great plan. So what you are now saying is that Mussolini and his 10th Army saps are the bait in the German masterpiece. They move into Egypt and encamp – how long for? Who decides when they turn tail?…. And on what basis do they know that the British will follow them?… of course in your mind the British will follow them at just the right time (for the barely mobile Italians) won’t they? I mean they won’t attack before the Italians retreat (Compass re-visited) they won’t attack just as the Italians are retreating (so Compass re-visited but a bigger massacre of on-the-move, strung out Italians) and they won’t simply not attack?

The Western Desert Force didn't have the force in place to attack much earlier than when they did (November). The Italians will retreat long before that. And, if it works, and the British are deep into Libya when Suez falls, that really is a coup on Mussolini's part.

But in determining what the British will do, do you actually know what Compass was designed to achieve? Have you even bothered to look up the original scope of the raid? The size of the force? You just appear to assume that the British intended all along to drive on Tripoli (where, according to you, Graziani has fallen back to).

They ended up pretty deep into Libya. And much of a year will lapse before Turkey is invaded. Time to go deeper.

I notice you make no response to the numbers of troops required to garrison Spain. How very telling. Scarily high figure isn’t it? You think Spain will be much different? And you think Hitler will leave such a strategic holding to be covered by the Italians?

Why not. That's just what they are best suited for.

According to you Germany will do nothing about French Morocco….. Really? Yeah that’s right, Hitler felt the same way about Crete. Couldn’t see the need to own an island from which Ploesti could be bombed…. And what? You think he’s happy for any strategic openings through the holding of Gibraltar to be negated by the enemy holding the southern side of the Straits? In which world does that make sense?

I assume you mean Spanish Morocco? Like I said, maybe there's a Vichy Spain.

Well given you believe Hitler would have even considered invading Spain, and that despite his monstrous betrayal, Franco is going to be welcomed back in the Axis fold and all is forgotten, I can see why such simplistic nonsense appeals. I mean you’ve totally forgotten that Spain are without oil and food and are only surviving in real life thanks to the US and Britain. Now, with your mate Franco back on the throne as Hitler’s puppet (and a fully paid up member of the Axis) there is now a humanitarian crisis on the cards… but hey, never mind a few thousand more Spanish troops dead – courtesy of their ‘friends’ the Germans - to add to the butcher’s bill from the civil war, a great many more women and children slaughtered, homeless, starving… no probs – we’ve got Gibraltar so all is good……

All this could be said about France, too. Still got a Vichy state out of it.

You’ve been playing with cardboard counters and pixels for too long – you seem to have completely forgotten about the real world, real life concerns, real life motivations and what actually matters.

No. I haven't forgot them, but they relate to all the previous examples of conquests in this period.

The harder part still was taking The Rock as the British have air bases in French Morocco to harry the attackers and support the Royal Navy.

I don't discount how tough Gibraltar will be. But, no bases in Morocco, French or Spanish.

But then the German problems really start. No one that accepts the Germans will be willingly supported as leader of Spain following this outrageous betrayal..... You thought (assuming you gave it any thought) that the manpower drain in the Balkans was heavy? Welcome to the Iberian Peninsular, where the people are hungry, starving, and really rather quite angry....

A Vichy Spain will reduce much of that. Just as it did in France.

[Curtis Lemay]

This is from the aftermath of the initial coup of FIC:

The occupation of southern French Indochina did not happen immediately. The Vichy government had agreed that some 40,000 troops could be stationed there. However, Japanese planners did not immediately move troops there, worried that such a move would be inflammatory to relations between Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Furthermore, within the Japanese high command there was a disagreement over what to do about the Soviet threat to the north of their Manchurian territories. The tipping point came just after the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union in late June 1941. With the Soviets tied down, the high command concluded that a "strike south" would solve Japan's problems with the United States, most notably the increasing American concerns about Japan's moves in China, and the possibility of a crippling oil embargo on Japan. To prepare for an invasion of the Dutch East Indies, some 140,000 Japanese troops invaded southern French Indochina on 28 July 1941.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... _Indochina

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

This is from the aftermath of the initial coup of FIC:

The occupation of southern French Indochina did not happen immediately. The Vichy government had agreed that some 40,000 troops could be stationed there. However, Japanese planners did not immediately move troops there, worried that such a move would be inflammatory to relations between Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Furthermore, within the Japanese high command there was a disagreement over what to do about the Soviet threat to the north of their Manchurian territories. The tipping point came just after the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union in late June 1941. With the Soviets tied down, the high command concluded that a "strike south" would solve Japan's problems with the United States, most notably the increasing American concerns about Japan's moves in China, and the possibility of a crippling oil embargo on Japan. To prepare for an invasion of the Dutch East Indies, some 140,000 Japanese troops invaded southern French Indochina on 28 July 1941.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... _Indochina

Without the Soviets being tied down, there is no occupation of French Indochina. There will also be no invasion of the Netherlands' (Dutch) East Indies, which is an ALLY of the United Kingdom. So no Japanese oil from there.

Did you ever see the movie Captain Newman, M.D.? If so, did you enjoy it? Or did it disturb you?

How are your cardboard counters holding out? Conquered the world yet?

With the Germans only building the Stuka, a short ranged and slow dive bomber, what about the fighter program? What about longer ranged bombers such as the FW 200? Which was used as a long ranged Naval Search aircraft and bomber?

Did you know that the 40mm Bofors could easily ruin a Stuka pilots whole day?

When you state that the Luftwaffe in Northern France would be demonstrating, would they be marching with signs? What would the signs state? Would the signs state "Deutschland über alles" or something like that?

How is your pharmaceutical supply? Need more? Or different ones?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Actually, they don't have to do anything at all. Just their presence is a threat. But, they could be "demonstrating". It's a ruse used to make an enemy thing you're going to do something you actually have no intension of doing.

warspite1

I think this says much about how you’ve approached this whole scenario. You are not trying to understand the time, the personalities, the motivations and how all the various factors came together and could be tweaked to provide different outcomes. In other words, you’ve ignored much of what makes such exercises so interesting.

Essentially you are approaching this as some sort of war game where you can just do as you please with the ‘counters’, no matter how gamey, no matter how unrealistic. After all, in your world there are no personalities to win over, no ego’s to massage, no diplomatic battles to be won.

The Luftwaffe in Northern France is a case in point. The Luftwaffe out-numbered Fighter Command massively. They were full of confidence having seen off all before them, despite their own not inconsiderable losses during Yellow. The Luftwaffe fully expected to take centre stage in the prelude to Sea Lion and were supremely confident of the outcome. They had been fed the propaganda about the RAF being on its last knees. They wanted to get at them.

Sadly for them, Sea Lion is not going to happen. Hitler has been persuaded that there is a better way to take out the British. But the war isn’t over – and the war against the British isn’t over. It’s just going to be focussed in the Mediterranean for a while. But there is a job to be done against the United Kingdom as an important part of that. The very last thing the Germans want to do is give the British time and space to recover from France. That would be madness and would allow the British to prepare for what is to come elsewhere. The best the Germans can do is to keep the pressure on, don’t let up.

But not according to you. The Germans, with the massive advantage (no hindsight allowed – they don’t know they would get beaten in a BoB) decide to do…… nothing. They will ‘demonstrate’, leaving British factories, dockyards, aircraft manufacturers, and not to forget Fighter Command, alone to build up. The FAA and branches of the RAF suffered as a result of the BoB and the desperate need for pilots. Now this won’t happen. The Germans are happy apparently to sit in Northern France and ‘demonstrate’, allowing the British to recover. Right…….

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I had just explained it, and you quoted that explanation. I'll repeat: A night invasion is the opposite of a day invasion.

warspite1

I’ll not bother mentioning the ‘night invasion’ rubbish again. I don’t know what you are talking about and you obviously can’t be bothered to explain it so perhaps you don’t either. If you believe what you’ve been writing then – let’s be kind and say you are a tad off-base - if you’ve written it for some other purpose then I’ll leave you to explain it or not – I can only ask so many times.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

?? After they miraculously rescued the BEF from Dunkirk, they didn't insert it right back into France further West in a misguided attempt to save France. Neither would they be inserting it into Spain.

warspite1

I thought you were trying to be funny or ironic or something, but it appears you genuinely haven’t heard of the second BEF.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Stukas. He has to produce Stukas. Pretty simple.

warspite1

Excellent, you are clearly as clued up as Goering, although you have the benefit of hindsight…. Great, let’s get those stuka assembly lines going.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

What does the Kriegsmarine have to do with this scenario?

warspite1

What does the Kriegsmarine have to do with a Mediterranean scenario in which the Germans still have to keep up the pressure on the UK and the Battle of the Atlantic? Nothing…. Absolutely nothing…..perhaps they will spend their time ‘demonstrating’

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

You're right. I had it wrong about the date of the embargo. I thought it was upon the initial coup in FIC. But it was much later when they actually occupied it. So, that's much better for my argument: Their stockpiles will easily last another year of waiting for Barbarossa.

Exactly. They didn't feel free to attack the US till Barbarossa occurred.

So, without Barbarossa, there wouldn't even be the occupation of the FIC, meaning no oil embargo at all!

4. Wait it out for Barbarossa to occur sometime later, relying on their stockpile.

5. Just occupy the DEI, without any attack on the UK or US.

Barbarossa was the tipping point for the occupation of the FIC and Pearl Harbor.

warspite1

Your whole treatment of Japan and the choices she faced is perhaps the most illogical, and ill-thought through of all you’ve suggested. It’s not just military matters you’ve failed to grasp. You seriously believe that Japan would play such stupid games with their economy, with their oil? There is no positive outcome on which Japan can rely here with any certainty - we know that but we need to place ourselves in Japan's shoes. If they remain in China – which they have chosen to do - then their economic, military and industrial position is going in one direction… fast. There is nothing like a war to make dwindling resources disappear even faster – and Japan is at war with China. But you suggest the Japanese Government takes one of two choices, neither of which make sense given the options:

- Waits for a Barbarossa that may or may not happen, and reduce their stockpiles of strategic assets to dangerous levels in the mean time – and who knows, maybe even exhaust them if they get the calculations wrong. Do you genuinely not understand what you are suggesting here?
- Attack just the NEI from Indo-China, an Indo-China that remember ACCORDING TO YOUR OWN ARGUMENT they have not seized the southern airfields from because of their fear of the USSR. You need to pay more attention to what you are spouting out.

And while we are talking about your arguments being totally contradictory, let’s see if I’ve got this right.

According to you the Japanese can’t possibly move into French Indo-China:

a) because Wiki says so (did you really post that?? [8|]), and
b) because they know the Soviets might attack them. These are the Soviets that are currently being surrounded in the west and also Soviets that Japan signed a treaty with just three months previously.

BUT

According to you the Japanese can attack the NEI without dealing with the British and USA because the Japanese know the British and USA won’t attack them if they do.

Convenient what these Japanese do and don’t know isn’t it????

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The Western Desert Force didn't have the force in place to attack much earlier than when they did (November!!). The Italians will retreat long before that. And, if it works, and the British are deep into Libya when Suez falls, that really is a coup on Mussolini's part.

They ended up pretty deep into Libya. And much of a year will lapse before Turkey is invaded. Time to go deeper.

Why not. That's just what they are best suited for.

Like I said, maybe there's a Vichy Spain.

All this could be said about France, too. Still got a Vichy state out of it.

A Vichy Spain will reduce much of that. Just as it did in France.

warspite1

And speaking about what is and isn’t known…..

You don’t know when the Battle of Britain was, when the 8th Army was formed, you think the stuka was the pre-eminent bomber in Germany’s arsenal going into 1941, you appear to have no understanding of Sea Lion, you’ve never heard of the Second BEF, you don’t know about your own country and the various embargoes, you don’t know when the Italians moved into Egypt, you don’t know when Operation Compass started and you have absolutely no clue what Operation Compass was designed to do and why it panned out the way it did.

And this brings us back to my opening response. You are playing a boardgame with counters. You have no clue what you are talking about, you have no concept of politics or reality. What the Italian Army was best suited for has nothing to do with what Mussolini will allow them to be used for until such time as the choice is taken from him – and that time isn’t even close. That is not my guesswork - that is fact; that is what happened.

And now you’ve raised another example. You have heard of something called Vichy France. You appear to have not concerned yourself with how and why it existed and the peculiar set of circumstances that brought about it’s creation. You just think oooohhh that sounds really neat, let’s have a Vichy Spain, headed up by no less a luminary than the man who betrayed Hitler, General Franco, gee that’d be swell. You have spent the whole time coming up with one liners, sound bites, detail-free ideas that you don’t trouble to think through.

You have told us this scenario has been proven to work. Well if the lack of detail, lack of explanation, lack of actual facts and lack of anything really, that you’ve been providing is anything to go by, then no wonder it works. The rules are simple: The Germans do everything right in every department, the Japanese and Italians work for the Germans (as does everyone that comes into contact with the Germans – especially the Spanish and Turks who love being invaded without warning) and the Allies are only allowed to make the same mistakes they made in WWII. Yes that is a war game even I could win as the Germans.

[RangerJoe]

Warspite1, don't forget that he says that game designers have more knowledge than the military experts who draw up the plans, the logistics, and so on. Plus those military experts also war game what they have drawn up. Where does he think the movie WarGames came from?

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086567/

They have a super computer there to do the war games. The military has better computer resources available to them than the general public, including the war game designers. They probably have better information as well.

[rico21]

1-It is normal that game designers are better than military planners since their intelligence quotient is close to mine (152) while everyone knows that all armies in the world recruit from 75.
2-Do not be disappointed, the most famous exception historically is Rommel who had well planned the Allied landing in Normandy but who was not listened to by the fools who commanded him.
3-In a ww2 strategic type wargame, I use the Italian army to occupy the countries conquered by the Germans. This makes more German divisions to invade the USSR and strengthens the Italian war economy.
4-We must not forget the psychological factor of ww2, the Germans consider themselves superior and do not trust their allies at all.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: rico21

1-It is normal that game designers are better than military planners since their intelligence quotient is close to mine (152) while everyone knows that all armies in the world recruit from 75.
FU FU FU

2-Do not be disappointed, the most famous exception historically is Rommel who had well planned the Allied landing in Normandy but who was not listened to by the fools who commanded him.

Then he was also a fool because he allowed himself to be commanded by fools.

3-In a ww2 strategic type wargame, I use the Italian army to occupy the countries conquered by the Germans. This makes more German divisions to invade the USSR and strengthens the Italian war economy.

So f***ing what?

4-We must not forget the psychological factor of ww2, the Germans consider themselves superior and do not trust their allies at all.

So f***ing what? So did the Japanese and look what happened to both.

[Aurelian]

It's time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu2NqfISm9k

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

It's time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu2NqfISm9k

warspite1

Heil, Heil Ziggedy Heil [:)]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

It's time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu2NqfISm9k

warspite1

Heil, Heil Ziggedy Heil [:)]

Very nice!

[Aurelian]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

It's time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu2NqfISm9k

warspite1

Heil, Heil Ziggedy Heil [:)]

Figured this thread could use a little humor

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

It's time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu2NqfISm9k

warspite1

Heil, Heil Ziggedy Heil [:)]

Figured this thread could use a little humor

warspite1

There's always room for humour [:)] Such a shame that it's not available to buy anymore. "You better believe we made a hell of a mess!"

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Warspite1, don't forget that he says that game designers have more knowledge than the military experts who draw up the plans, the logistics, and so on.

warspite1

That there can be a massive difference between real life and war gaming a situation should be obvious to any one. The extent to which compromise and abstraction are made can be increased/decreased depending on the scenario; war gaming a one-off set piece battle should be less affected than a whole campaign, is less affected than a series of campaigns and so on.

But we haven't really come to that yet. What is frustrating about this is the comments around the higher level detail. I mean Spain started off with Franco being allowed back in charge with the sop that Spain gets Gibraltar. Simples.... I mean totally unbelievable from Hitler's point of view and barely less believable from Franco's, but that was the 'thinking'. Then latterly we get a possible 'Vichy Spain'. But how would a Vichy Spain work if the sop to Spain was giving then Gibraltar - but Gibraltar would have to be in the occupied zone. How could Spanish Morocco be treated like the French colonies when Hitler was so nervous about the Spanish army (unlike the French) being able and willing to defend their outposts? And of course these are just two of the obvious points, and we haven't even considered whether the Spanish would accept such a proposal having just been betrayed, and even if all that could be overcome, nor does it solve the German garrison problem. Imagine the area needed for the occupied zone. No detail, nothing thought through as usual.

[FOARP]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Warspite1, don't forget that he says that game designers have more knowledge than the military experts who draw up the plans, the logistics, and so on.

warspite1

That there can be a massive difference between real life and war gaming a situation should be obvious to any one. The extent to which compromise and abstraction are made can be increased/decreased depending on the scenario; war gaming a one-off set piece battle should be less affected than a whole campaign, is less affected than a series of campaigns and so on.

But we haven't really come to that yet. What is frustrating about this is the comments around the higher level detail. I mean Spain started off with Franco being allowed back in charge with the sop that Spain gets Gibraltar. Simples.... I mean totally unbelievable from Hitler's point of view and barely less believable from Franco's, but that was the 'thinking'. Then latterly we get a possible 'Vichy Spain'. But how would a Vichy Spain work if the sop to Spain was giving then Gibraltar - but Gibraltar would have to be in the occupied zone. How could Spanish Morocco be treated like the French colonies when Hitler was so nervous about the Spanish army (unlike the French) being able and willing to defend their outposts? And of course these are just two of the obvious points, and we haven't even considered whether the Spanish would accept such a proposal having just been betrayed, and even if all that could be overcome, nor does it solve the German garrison problem. Imagine the area needed for the occupied zone. No detail, nothing thought through as usual.

Look, Warspite, we just have to accept that us low IQ people can't understand the brilliance of this level of thinking....

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: FOARP

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Warspite1, don't forget that he says that game designers have more knowledge than the military experts who draw up the plans, the logistics, and so on.

warspite1

That there can be a massive difference between real life and war gaming a situation should be obvious to any one. The extent to which compromise and abstraction are made can be increased/decreased depending on the scenario; war gaming a one-off set piece battle should be less affected than a whole campaign, is less affected than a series of campaigns and so on.

But we haven't really come to that yet. What is frustrating about this is the comments around the higher level detail. I mean Spain started off with Franco being allowed back in charge with the sop that Spain gets Gibraltar. Simples.... I mean totally unbelievable from Hitler's point of view and barely less believable from Franco's, but that was the 'thinking'. Then latterly we get a possible 'Vichy Spain'. But how would a Vichy Spain work if the sop to Spain was giving then Gibraltar - but Gibraltar would have to be in the occupied zone. How could Spanish Morocco be treated like the French colonies when Hitler was so nervous about the Spanish army (unlike the French) being able and willing to defend their outposts? And of course these are just two of the obvious points, and we haven't even considered whether the Spanish would accept such a proposal having just been betrayed, and even if all that could be overcome, nor does it solve the German garrison problem. Imagine the area needed for the occupied zone. No detail, nothing thought through as usual.

Look, Warspite, we just have to accept that us low IQ people can't understand the brilliance of this level of thinking....

warspite1

[:)]

IQ? I don't know what mine is but I suspect I don't exactly trouble the scorers [:(]. But this isn't about IQ, this is about coming up with scenario that he believes would win the Germans the war and then actually being bothered to put a bit of effort into explaining it and defending it. Yes, getting basic facts e.g. start dates of operations affected by the scenario that he is espousing does help breed confidence that he knows what he is talking about.

[RangerJoe]

There are different types of IQ and your IQ can change during your lifetime.

But the most important thing that is not tested is a misnamed thing. It is called "common sense" which is not very common.

After Germany but more Italy helps to get Franco in charge of Spain, they then attack Spain? When Franco is an ideologue? Then put him back in? That would not happen. They might find someone to be King or Queen, but you know how that works out for them when they are conceived of as a puppet. The only choice to find someone to rule Spain would thus be the Communists, Socialists, and/or Anarchists whom Germany and Italy helped to defeat. Refugees from those groups fled to France, many still in camps in deplorable conditions, some had relatives in France that they went to live with. Many of those individuals joined the Maquis and the Free French later. Those people with relatives on both sides of the border would communicate and let those in Spain know about the troop movements who are way too many troops to occupy the sparser populated area than other places in France with a lot more people.

[MrRoadrunner]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: rico21

1-It is normal that game designers are better than military planners since their intelligence quotient is close to mine (152) while everyone knows that all armies in the world recruit from 75.
FU FU FU

2-Do not be disappointed, the most famous exception historically is Rommel who had well planned the Allied landing in Normandy but who was not listened to by the fools who commanded him.

Then he was also a fool because he allowed himself to be commanded by fools.

3-In a ww2 strategic type wargame, I use the Italian army to occupy the countries conquered by the Germans. This makes more German divisions to invade the USSR and strengthens the Italian war economy.

So f***ing what?

4-We must not forget the psychological factor of ww2, the Germans consider themselves superior and do not trust their allies at all.

So f***ing what? So did the Japanese and look what happened to both.

+1,000 Joe!

Well said. Most dopes believe that the military is full of dopes. Just not them? [;)]

RR

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

This is from the aftermath of the initial coup of FIC:

The occupation of southern French Indochina did not happen immediately. The Vichy government had agreed that some 40,000 troops could be stationed there. However, Japanese planners did not immediately move troops there, worried that such a move would be inflammatory to relations between Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Furthermore, within the Japanese high command there was a disagreement over what to do about the Soviet threat to the north of their Manchurian territories. The tipping point came just after the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union in late June 1941. With the Soviets tied down, the high command concluded that a "strike south" would solve Japan's problems with the United States, most notably the increasing American concerns about Japan's moves in China, and the possibility of a crippling oil embargo on Japan. To prepare for an invasion of the Dutch East Indies, some 140,000 Japanese troops invaded southern French Indochina on 28 July 1941.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... _Indochina

Without the Soviets being tied down, there is no occupation of French Indochina.

Exactly! And, therefore, no embargo of oil by the US!

With the Germans only building the Stuka, a short ranged and slow dive bomber, what about the fighter program? What about longer ranged bombers such as the FW 200? Which was used as a long ranged Naval Search aircraft and bomber?

Did you know that the 40mm Bofors could easily ruin a Stuka pilots whole day?

Dive bombers are actually more survivable than torpedo bombers. And the ocean bottom is populated by BBs and CVs put there by them.

When you state that the Luftwaffe in Northern France would be demonstrating, would they be marching with signs? What would the signs state? Would the signs state "Deutschland über alles" or something like that?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demonstration_(military)

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I think this says much about how you’ve approached this whole scenario. You are not trying to understand the time, the personalities, the motivations and how all the various factors came together and could be tweaked to provide different outcomes. In other words, you’ve ignored much of what makes such exercises so interesting.

Essentially you are approaching this as some sort of war game where you can just do as you please with the ‘counters’, no matter how gamey, no matter how unrealistic. After all, in your world there are no personalities to win over, no ego’s to massage, no diplomatic battles to be won.

The Luftwaffe in Northern France is a case in point. The Luftwaffe out-numbered Fighter Command massively. They were full of confidence having seen off all before them, despite their own not inconsiderable losses during Yellow. The Luftwaffe fully expected to take centre stage in the prelude to Sea Lion and were supremely confident of the outcome. They had been fed the propaganda about the RAF being on its last knees. They wanted to get at them.

Sadly for them, Sea Lion is not going to happen. Hitler has been persuaded that there is a better way to take out the British. But the war isn’t over – and the war against the British isn’t over. It’s just going to be focussed in the Mediterranean for a while. But there is a job to be done against the United Kingdom as an important part of that. The very last thing the Germans want to do is give the British time and space to recover from France. That would be madness and would allow the British to prepare for what is to come elsewhere. The best the Germans can do is to keep the pressure on, don’t let up.

But not according to you. The Germans, with the massive advantage (no hindsight allowed – they don’t know they would get beaten in a BoB) decide to do…… nothing. They will ‘demonstrate’, leaving British factories, dockyards, aircraft manufacturers, and not to forget Fighter Command, alone to build up. The FAA and branches of the RAF suffered as a result of the BoB and the desperate need for pilots. Now this won’t happen. The Germans are happy apparently to sit in Northern France and ‘demonstrate’, allowing the British to recover. Right…….

So, your whole argument boils down to "Hitler wouldn't do this." That's not what this exercise is about. It's about whether it will work. Once that's established - and it pretty much has been - we can work on Hitler.

I’ll not bother mentioning the ‘night invasion’ rubbish again. I don’t know what you are talking about and you obviously can’t be bothered to explain it so perhaps you don’t either. If you believe what you’ve been writing then – let’s be kind and say you are a tad off-base - if you’ve written it for some other purpose then I’ll leave you to explain it or not – I can only ask so many times.

I don't know how it could be any simpler. Everything happens at night instead of in the day. At night the RAF isn't a factor, while the RN is. By day the RAF is the factor and the RN isn't.

But the important point is that the British can't discount the threat the Germans pose just because some action they presume to be essential isn't happening. They don't know the nature of the German plan, and those plans can have wide variance.

Excellent, you are clearly as clued up as Goering, although you have the benefit of hindsight…. Great, let’s get those stuka assembly lines going.

Already going. Just have to be ramped up a bit.

Your whole treatment of Japan and the choices she faced is perhaps the most illogical, and ill-thought through of all you’ve suggested. It’s not just military matters you’ve failed to grasp. You seriously believe that Japan would play such stupid games with their economy, with their oil? There is no positive outcome on which Japan can rely here with any certainty - we know that but we need to place ourselves in Japan's shoes. If they remain in China – which they have chosen to do - then their economic, military and industrial position is going in one direction… fast. There is nothing like a war to make dwindling resources disappear even faster – and Japan is at war with China. But you suggest the Japanese Government takes one of two choices, neither of which make sense given the options:

- Waits for a Barbarossa that may or may not happen, and reduce their stockpiles of strategic assets to dangerous levels in the mean time – and who knows, maybe even exhaust them if they get the calculations wrong. Do you genuinely not understand what you are suggesting here?
- Attack just the NEI from Indo-China, an Indo-China that remember ACCORDING TO YOUR OWN ARGUMENT they have not seized the southern airfields from because of their fear of the USSR. You need to pay more attention to what you are spouting out.

And while we are talking about your arguments being totally contradictory, let’s see if I’ve got this right.

According to you the Japanese can’t possibly move into French Indo-China:

a) because Wiki says so (did you really post that?? [8|]), and
b) because they know the Soviets might attack them. These are the Soviets that are currently being surrounded in the west and also Soviets that Japan signed a treaty with just three months previously.

BUT

According to you the Japanese can attack the NEI without dealing with the British and USA because the Japanese know the British and USA won’t attack them if they do.

Convenient what these Japanese do and don’t know isn’t it????

Sorry the ugly wiki article is ruining your beautiful theory!

It clearly shows that, without Barbarossa, there isn't even an invasion of French Indochina. That means the embargo doesn't happen. That means your entire line of reasoning is a collapsed house of cards.

Barbarossa was a prerequisite for the Rising Sun offensive. That's clear from the wiki article.

And speaking about what is and isn’t known…..

You don’t know when the Battle of Britain was,

I know when Eagle Day was - which is what counts.

when the 8th Army was formed,

No. That was a boneheaded misunderstanding on your part.

you think the stuka was the pre-eminent bomber in Germany’s arsenal going into 1941,

Pre-eminent DIVE bomber.

you appear to have no understanding of Sea Lion,

Even if so, so what? It isn't happening.

you don’t know when the Italians moved into Egypt, you don’t know when Operation Compass started and you have absolutely no clue what Operation Compass was designed to do and why it panned out the way it did.

I actually feel I may have designed a pretty good scenario about that.

And this brings us back to my opening response. You are playing a boardgame with counters.

No. I'm just pointing out that plenty of military simulations support my position.

You have no clue what you are talking about, you have no concept of politics or reality. What the Italian Army was best suited for has nothing to do with what Mussolini will allow them to be used for until such time as the choice is taken from him – and that time isn’t even close. That is not my guesswork - that is fact; that is what happened.

Once clued in, Mussolini will see the opportunity and act accordingly. But, even if he doesn't, things will still get very bad for the British in North Africa, once overwhelming force comes down from Turkey to Suez.

And now you’ve raised another example. You have heard of something called Vichy France. You appear to have not concerned yourself with how and why it existed and the peculiar set of circumstances that brought about it’s creation. You just think oooohhh that sounds really neat, let’s have a Vichy Spain, headed up by no less a luminary than the man who betrayed Hitler, General Franco, gee that’d be swell. You have spent the whole time coming up with one liners, sound bites, detail-free ideas that you don’t trouble to think through.

Seems it would be easier in Spain than in France. Think what implacable enemies the French had been. Contrast that to Franco.

You have told us this scenario has been proven to work. Well if the lack of detail, lack of explanation, lack of actual facts and lack of anything really, that you’ve been providing is anything to go by, then no wonder it works. The rules are simple: The Germans do everything right in every department, the Japanese and Italians work for the Germans (as does everyone that comes into contact with the Germans – especially the Spanish and Turks who love being invaded without warning) and the Allies are only allowed to make the same mistakes they made in WWII. Yes that is a war game even I could win as the Germans.

If I really know so little, you should have no trouble easily producing evidence to establish what you're saying. Yet all you seem to be able to do is declare yourself to be right and how dare I think otherwise.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

So, your whole argument boils down to "Hitler wouldn't do this." That's not what this exercise is about. It's about whether it will work. Once that's established - and it pretty much has been - we can work on Hitler.

warspite1

Well that’s disappointing on the basis the one thing I’ve made clear throughout is that this scenario gets underway because we’ve said Hitler agrees to amend his plans for Barbarossa (a massive change). It’s not much of a “what-if” if other people can’t take different action. However, to stop it becoming a flight of fantasy, any changes need to be worked through to evidence that a change of mind/plan is reasonable. That's not difficult to grasp surely?

And as for what you've established? Well so far we've got the Luftwaffe 'demonstrating'.... So what has that 'established'. what does that even mean? Where is the justification for a Luftwaffe, that out-numbers fighter command, to sit idle while the UK build back up again?

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Already going. Just have to be ramped up a bit.

warspite1

Excellent well done. Great news for the British.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Sorry the ugly wiki article is ruining your beautiful theory!

It clearly shows that, without Barbarossa, there isn't even an invasion of French Indochina. That means the embargo doesn't happen. That means your entire line of reasoning is a collapsed house of cards.

Barbarossa was a prerequisite for the Rising Sun offensive. That's clear from the wiki article.

warspite1

No it’s not at all. What is so breath taking is that you’ve taken that article as some kind of gospel and yet even though you believe it, you haven’t been able to join the dots on what it means for the invasion of the NEI. Incredible on both counts – and quite shocking too.

And you still appear hopelessly confused and all at sea about the FIC and when the Japanese took action there.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I know when Eagle Day was - which is what counts.

warspite1

No you didn’t – you thought it was September.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No. That was a boneheaded misunderstanding on your part.

warspite1

Not at all, you were talking about the 8th Army at the same time as Exporter. Yes it was a boneheaded comment, and yes, it was by you.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Pre-eminent DIVE bomber.

warspite1

Fine – as said, just fire up those production lines.

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No. I'm just pointing out that plenty of military simulations support my position.

Once clued in, Mussolini will see the opportunity and act accordingly. But, even if he doesn't, things will still get very bad for the British in North Africa, once overwhelming force comes down from Turkey to Suez.

Seems it would be easier in Spain than in France. Think what implacable enemies the French had been. Contrast that to Franco.

warspite1

No on all counts and....

....If I really know so little, you should have no trouble easily producing evidence to establish what you're saying. Yet all you seem to be able to do is declare yourself to be right and how dare I think otherwise.