The question to ask about The Italians

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Another aspect of the “staff study” that suspends disbelief – perhaps the biggest – is that Hitler would even consider attacking Spain. Many have commented on this thread that they simply don’t believe Hitler would have considered this. German Military Strategy and Spain in World War II (Burdick) brings this into focus. I won’t repeat the reasons why such a move would have been so difficult for Hitler to have ordered. These have been outlined numerous times and, let’s face it, are pretty obvious.

There was one reason that I considered that Hitler might just have thrown all those arguments out of the window and just ordered the operation anyway. I have kept in mind that in making this decision, Barbarossa would be postponed (which is another massive leap but again let’s suspend disbelief and just go with that too).

Hitler was not a man who liked to be said no to, and it could be argued that he was particularly aggrieved at Franco’s stance. Why? Well, German blood helped to install Franco in the first place and Franco, in refusing, was simply being ungrateful and unreasonable.

Okay…. but what could tip Hitler over the edge? Well in addition to the above, by late September, when Hitler was actually sold on the need for taking Gibraltar, there was also the following to consider:

- Hitler had seen the summer months of 1940 wasted following the armistice with France.
- Hitler’s dream of bringing the UK to heel were dashed
- Worse, in being dashed, the Luftwaffe had been severely mauled
- The Kriegsmarine had been severely mauled in Norway
- Mussolini had declared war and Hitler expected this announcement to be followed by a surprise attack on Corsica or Malta…. but instead, Mussolini’s forces had done..... nothing, other than a recent march over the border into Egypt, whereupon they set up camp.

So, added to Franco’s ungratefulness we have Hitler who is now in a very bad mood about how things are not panning out. As we enter the New Year and move into January and February, Franco is still stalling - despite making positive noises - and to add to the above:

- The Battle of Britain has been a bit of a disaster
- The Italian attack on Greece has failed – and indeed they are in danger of losing Albania!
- Part of the Italian fleet has been crippled at Taranto
- The Italians have suffered defeat after defeat and have been pushed back out of Egypt, out of Cyrenaica and back into Tripolitania.
- Hitler has already had to send the first of two divisions to Libya to stop a complete collapse.

Finally Hitler snaps, gets real and admits that Germany can’t possibly open up a second front with the USSR with all this going on. Incensed by everything going wrong, Hitler postpones Barbarossa, and the attack on Spain happens in the Spring of 1941.

Again, this is just a suggestion to make the scenario work and not my personal opinion of what was possible.

What the book makes clear are the tortured back and forwards between Franco and Hitler. I hadn’t realised that the Germans had not only selected the forces and commanders (this I knew from various war games), but that the assault forces had actually undergone specific training (at locations that best mirrored the target). There was also extensive intelligence, reconnaissance and survey work carried out, not only targeting Gibraltar, but also the state of Spain’s infrastructure and how difficult it was going to be to get down to Gibraltar – even in the non-hostile environment envisaged.

I don't think it takes much foresight for the Germans to realize, right from the start, that they don't have realistic chances to get across the Channel. So, a staff study that has a good alternate should have had real chances to be adopted.

warspite1

Goering was supremely confident that he would destroy the RAF in weeks (4 days!!) and in that event, he felt there would be no need for a Sea Lion.

Despite what you've been told, you still cling onto the idea that no one had suggested a Med strategy to Hitler at any point? But regardless, that misses the entire point. It wasn't a "good alternate" because we know Hitler was not in the least interested in attacking Spain. We know Hitler wasn't in the least interested in putting off Barbarossa - both would have to happen in your scenario. Therefore in Hitler's eyes it wasn't a "good alternate" and has no chance of being adopted.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

You keep repeating this nonsense. Japan and Italy are not working for Germany's benefit. Rather, what constitutes their benefit is impacted by Germany's actions. Postponing Barbarossa changes Japan's best course of action. Adopting a Med Strategy changes Italy's best course of action.

warspite1

Not interested in discussing Japan until we can find a way to get past 1940.

Correct!!!!! Italy was NOT working for Germany's benefit. Sadly though, your scenario has Italy doing just that.

I've given the reasons why it could be reasonably argued why Mussolini would take a different approach to the one you suggest. These reasons include historical precedent. But still you insist, as the German player, on moving the Italian counters around as the Germans wish.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

They rested and refitted after the Fall of France because they could - no other reason. If France had lasted longer, they would have carried on as long as it took. Take Barbarossa: continuous combat from late June to the end of October, with perhaps four weeks stopped. Take the Allies in France in 1944: From early June to the end of September before any pause. There is no requirement to rest entire divisions because tanks need repair. You just pull individual tanks out of the line, service them, and send them on to catch up once they're back in condition.

warspite1

We've covered this. No one is denying that sometimes (in fact very often) units are kept in the field too long out of necessity - because circumstances dictate. That doesn't make it right and not something an army chooses to do for obvious reasons, and no one chooses to start a whole new campaign with understrength, tired units.....

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Why? There may be weeks between the start of the Spanish campaign and getting to Gibraltar. And once at Gibraltar, only a relatively small force will be necessary - not the entire invasion force. Gibraltar can be deconstructed at a leisurely pace. I'm not discounting how difficult it will be, just that there is no rush.

warspite1

No, they won't be doing anything at a leisurely pace and no, there was a rush. To suggest otherwise is to fail to understand the German situation in the whole war. This campaign isn't happening before September, they don't know how long Spain will take, and they don't know how long the second prong will take. If we are to believe Hitler has put off Barbarossa in 1941 he sure as hell isn't going to countenance a second delay. Not to mention he doesn't know Stalin isn't going to attack Germany.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Compare to Russia. And, actually, the Spanish army is so thin, it's doubtful they could do the bridge-blowing that occurs in most campaigns. Rails will be repaired and bridges rebuilt or pontooned. (And Spain seems sort of dry to me).

warspite1

Who gives a damn about not being able to blow bridges if the bridges can't take heavy loads anyway? But certainly interesting that the Spanish don't know how to blow bridges now.

[IslandInland]

I'm wearing a mask whenever I read this thread now.

It seems quite virulent and vitriolic. And exhausting.

[we need a mask emoticon].

[8D][8|]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If the enemy units stay on the hills, they would eventually be cut off from supplies, surrounded and wiped out. It also depends upon how wide the river valleys are as to whether the hills would have to be immediately cleared.

How would they be wiped out if the Germans can't enter the hills? Sounds like the Germans would have been cutting themselves off from supply!

It works both ways yes, but the Germans would be stronger since the Greeks are beating the Italians who won't fight their way out of a wet paper bag!

Yes, the German army would be ground to a halt on ROAD GRADES.

[X(]
Yup. Just because a tank can make it does not mean that a heavily loaded truck can.

Even the modern American Army would be halted by ROAD GRADES as far as moving equipment and supplies on steep grades. It is not just the ROAD GRADES, it is also what the road surface is made from as well as the road bed itself - not to mention drainage systems to remove excess water. Ever see a tank or an armoured vehicle slipping on an icy road? They can easily slide off a road, lose a track, then block the road. Mud is also slippery whether it is black dirt or wet clay. Then even lose rock on a road surface can cause trouble.

Would you have a tank assigned to pull a loaded truck up a steep grade? How about a enemy rifleman shooting up the truck? Take out the radiator and the engine overheats and locks up. How about the brakes? Are there pull offs for the trucks to cool their brakes? How about tires and a flat tire? How about that enemy rifleman shooting out a tire causing a blowout? What happens to the truck on a turn when the outside steer tire blows out? Off the road it goes. If it is on a switchback, then it can then tumble down the hill, crossing the road and possibly meeting other vehicles. What happens to the load? Fuel would be trouble, ammo or explosives could be a blast, and personnel on a truck could be flung all over - which could ruin their whole day.

And, yet, here the Germans are, sweeping through Yugoslavia and Greece over the same terrain as Turkey and much worse than Spain. Pulling their artillery behind them on loaded trucks.

Are you sure? In Spain and Turkey, the Germans would have to cross mountains and not follow river valleys.

In Yugoslavia and Greece, the Germans later fight against Partisans to such an extend that they could not control large parts of the country. Even Hitler realized that.

BTW, how is your pharmaceutical supplies holding out?

Not as well as your, evidently.

Are you sure? My supplies are fine since I get most of them for nothing! [:D]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: warspite1

A July start date? Based on historical German records and documents that’s a definite no.

Compare to Russia. And, actually, the Spanish army is so thin, it's doubtful they could do the bridge-blowing that occurs in most campaigns. Rails will be repaired and bridges rebuilt or pontooned. (And Spain seems sort of dry to me).

Bridge blowing is easy. Road craters as well. Do both at the same place. As far as the rail lines themselves, all that you have to do is to make Sherman's neckties.

Pontoon bridge are also limited as to what they can handle and how fast you can go over them. Not every river or ravine is crossable by a pontoon bridge either - especially in the mountains.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

They rested and refitted after the Fall of France because they could - no other reason. If France had lasted longer, they would have carried on as long as it took. Take Barbarossa: continuous combat from late June to the end of October, with perhaps four weeks stopped. Take the Allies in France in 1944: From early June to the end of September before any pause. There is no requirement to rest entire divisions because tanks need repair. You just pull individual tanks out of the line, service them, and send them on to catch up once they're back in condition.

warspite1

We've covered this. No one is denying that sometimes (in fact very often) units are kept in the field too long out of necessity - because circumstances dictate. That doesn't make it right and not something an army chooses to do for obvious reasons, and no one chooses to start a whole new campaign with understrength, tired units.....

That is correct Warspite1. Units such as companies, troops/squadrons, and batteries all go through the same maintenance cycle every quarter or so. Some other things are don semi-annually or yearly. But combat and even training puts more stress on the units and their equipment:

The 2nd Panzer Division was formed on 15 October 1935 . . .
.
.
.
Under the command of Heinz Guderian the division participated in the Anschluss of Austria in 1938, covering 680 kilometres (420 mi) in 48 hours but in the process losing 30 percent of its tanks to accidents and mechanical failures. . . .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2nd_Panze ... Wehrmacht)

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: IslandInland

I'm wearing a mask whenever I read this thread now.

It seems quite virulent and vitriolic. And exhausting.

[we need a mask emoticon].

[8D][8|]

I am glad that you are enjoying it. [:D]

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Compare to Russia. And, actually, the Spanish army is so thin, it's doubtful they could do the bridge-blowing that occurs in most campaigns.

Bridge blowing is easy.

warspite1

Not for the Spanish army apparently.....

BTW: A question for Curtis Lemay and Zovs. In the SPI game, was there any special rules/requirements around the rail bridge at Irun?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Compare to Russia. And, actually, the Spanish army is so thin, it's doubtful they could do the bridge-blowing that occurs in most campaigns.

Bridge blowing is easy.

warspite1

Not for the Spanish army apparently.....

Considering that the Spanish had hard rock mining, they already had the toys to play with. [:D] The Spanish also had engineering units that could have done it. The could even have asked Republicans to help.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

They could even have asked Republicans to help.

warspite1

But this is one of the key points about a German invasion. To a large extent (at least for the time being) the distinction between Republican or Falangist or Carlist or Communist or whatever, becomes of secondary importance. The left hate the invaders because they are Fascist, the right hate the invaders because they have betrayed and back-stabbed their own kind in a way not seen since Napoleonic times.

The difference between, for example, somewhere like Holland in 1940 and Spain 1940, is that the Spanish have much, much less to lose, and the spectre of starvation is real. The Germans were fully aware when planning for the operation, that all food would need to be brought in - there would be no possibility of living off the land....

Nothing will unite the Spanish like a betrayal of this magnitude. And to those who maybe unsure - well as soon as starvation starts to kick in, civilians are bombed out of their homes and the inevitable reprisals against the populace begin, they will soon get with the program.....

[Zovs]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

BTW: A question for Curtis Lemay and Zovs. In the SPI game, was there any special rules/requirements around the rail bridge at Irun?

Could you remind me where/what country Irun is in?

I looked at Spain, Turkey and Gibraltar areas and there is no Irun. However I remember us talking about Operation Felix and so looking at the map of Gibraltar there is only one hex to attack it from. It's a mountain hex so it's MPs is 8/4 (Mech-Armor/Infantry and 2 MP for Mountain units) to move into, it not only gets a -1 to the CRT but mountain hexes double the defensive values, it's a Major Port and it's just plain nasty to attack.

In CWIE2 (and hence WIE in general) the most you can stack in hex is 4 units. So until 1942 the strongest German stack would be 4x 10-8 Armor Divisions or 40 attack strengths from one hex (I can't recall off hand if you can Amph a mountain hex, off the cuff I say no). The CW start with a (1)-0 infantry (1 defense, can't attack and 0 MP's), the CW resources are thin in 1939-1941, but if push comes to shove any sane CW player will ship a 8-10 into that hex. That would be 18 defense factors to 40 that is 2-1 odds. In 1940 the Germans are on CRT4 (the best) and I'll post a screen shot of the 2-1 odds (essentially with a -1 they must roll a six to get a br (both retreat) the rest are either ax (attacker exchange) or ae (attacker eliminated). On this CRT you'd want to get at least a 5-1. Which if that 8-10 is sitting there is impossible.

NOTE: You can drop some 2-5 Para regiments on Gibraltar, to help the odds, that would make it 46 to 18 or 2-1 odds unless you use the optional rules that allows shifting of odds so the 2.5 to 1 might shift up to 3-1, which still sucks wads.

screenshots to follow...

[Zovs]

I have a 4k monitor, and I use imgur to post images, so I had to scale down the first image, but if you look closely enough you can see the one hex leading into Gibraltar.


Gibraltar:


CRT4:

[Zovs]

Last note on this, but if you look at the map, you'll see Algeciras (Minor port) and Tangier (Major port) two hexes to the west, and there are special rules for who controls Gibraltar. If the CW control it then the Italians can't enter the Western Med., even if the Axis captured both of those ports (note also that you can't cross from Algeciras by land to Tangier).

The rules enforce that who controls Gibraltar controls access to the Western Med and into the Atlantic from this area (i.e. the screen shot above).

[Zovs]

Turkey is not much better, at least from a purely frontal attack (nevermind the political cost to the Axis) at least in CWIE2/WIE.

Here is the Turkish setup in 1939-1945.

[Zovs]

Some other food for thought.

Okay I am pulling these out of the design notes of a board war game series that started back in the mid-to-late 1970's and continued on till the nineties. The game company in question this time is GDW (which later changed to GR/D) and the game series is the Europa series.

I'll start with the Spain and Portugal module (just hoping these will add insight or further usefulness to the conversation and I am not Mr. Astell and not advocating one point above another just sharing some info for discussion:

Spain: The effects of the Spanish Civil War influenced the development of Spain's armed forces during World War II. The Civil War greatly damaged the Spanish economy, and Spain experienced serious food shortages in the immediate post-Civil War years. The result of this was that the Spanish armed forces, while not neglected, were not substantially expanded or modernized, as rebuilding the economy was a much more important goal of the Spanish government.

Much of Spain's military equipment had to be used throughout the entire World War II period, even though most of it was obsolete or worn-out by 1939/40. The domestic industry simply couldn't supply the armed forces with sufficient modern equipment. Furthermore, Spain had few foreign sources of equipment. Germany — pro-Fascist Spain's logical supplier — needed its pro duction for its own and its fighting allies' war needs. Further- more, Spain's consistent refusal to join the Axis or to allow German troops to attack Gibraltar from Spanish soil resulted in somewhat strained relations between Germany and Spain. Thus, Germany was unwilling to supply Spain with much military equipment, allowing only token aid (some tanks and assault guns, a few aircraft, some aircraft manufacturing licenses).

Army: In the early war period, Spain officially had three mountain divisions: the 42nd, 43rd, and 52nd. However, there were sufficient mountain troops available for the equivalent of only one division. Accordingly, I showed the 43rd as a mountain division (since it had more mountain troops than the other two) and the 42nd and 52nd as infantry divisions.

The three regiments of the Spanish Foreign Legion were actually organic elements of divisions in Spanish Morocco (the 1st was in the 101st Division, the 2nd in the 93rd, and the 3rd in the 92nd). However, there were three independent Army infantry regiments (the 74th, 75th, and 76th) stationed in Morocco. Since I wanted to show the Legion directly, I arbitrarily swapped the Legion regiments with the Army regiments. By the way, the Spanish Foreign Legion, unlike its French counterpart, had very few foreigners in it (around 10%, with the rest being Spanish).

In the mid-to late-war period, the Spanish Army went through several reorganizations. A reorganization not shown in the module was the renumbering of almost all the regiments in the Army. Since the renumbering did not reflect any change in actual organization or capabilities, I saw no need to include the extra counters required to show this reorganization.

Air Force: The German foreign-aid air units are included for flexibility in Europa. While Germany actually did supply a few aircraft of the models shown, there weren't enough delivered to rate a counter. Almost enough Me 109Gs were supplied to deserve a counter, except that Germany neglected to include engines with them. Spain also obtained a license to manufacture Me 109G airframes but was unable to get engines from Germany. After much work, a Spanish aircraft engine was fitted to the airframe, with the result being the HA-1109.

Portugal: The light infantry regiments are composite units of independent battalions, and their unit IDs are the military region numbers where they are located. The cavalry brigades are sup ported because I factored independent artillery assets into the brigades.

Battle for Spain Scenario: The scenario is based on a hypothetical situation: what if Germany's strategy for 1941 was the defeat of Britain, rather than the invasion of the USSR. Although threatening to invade Britain itself would be part of the strategy, the likelihood of success against a stronger (than in 1940) RAF, Royal Navy, and British Army seems rather remote, - leaving the "Mediterranean Option" as Germany's most probable route to success. In essence, Germany would try to eliminate British presence in the Mediterranean (Gibraltar, Malta, and Cyprus), North Africa (Egypt and Libya), the Balkans (Greece), and the Near East (Palestine, Transjordan, and Iraq). Also, a large eastern garrison would be needed to guard against any Soviet moves, as a German incursion into the Near East would certainly increase tension between Germany and the Soviet Union. In this sequence, I assumed that an attack on Turkey would be necessary. A German attack on the Near East is hardly credible without passage of German troops and supplies through Turkey, and Turkey probably wouldn't permit this.

Similarly, Spain wouldn't allow Germany passage through Spanish territory for an attack on Gibraltar. Unlike speculation on Turkey's actions in such a situation, the actual historical record on Spain's intention is clear. Throughout late 1940 and early 1941, Germany repeatedly tried to get Spain to enter the war or to allow German troops to attack Gibraltar. In response, Spain stated its sympathy for the Axis cause but always refused the German requests. Fortunately for Spain, Germany's interest on these topics lessened as the planning for the invasion of the USSR grew. However, in the hypothetical situation outlined above, Spanish refusal would prompt German invasion. The Battle for Spain scenario examines this situation.

Scenario Rules: The Spanish preparedness rule shows the unlikeliness that Spain would be caught by strategic surprise. With months of German diplomatic pressure and German troops concentrating on the French-Spanish border, Spain would react.

At least, Spain would see the German preparations as a bluff to force Spain to Germany's will and would order partial mobilization as a counter bluff. By the way, although I assume Germany doesn't achieve strategic surprise, I do posit that the Germans achieve operational surprise. This is why the Germans receive the surprise turn on turn 1.

The rules on Portugal try to balance Portugal's traditional pro-British policy with Portugal's desire not to go too far and thus incur a German invasion. While I think that Portugal in actuality would have maintained strict neutrality in the event of a German invasion of Spain, Germany wouldn't be sure of this. Thus, the Portugal rules inject some uncertainty here, so that the German player won't be sure of Portugal's intentions.

The victory conditions reflect the fact that Germany must try to win the campaign quickly. With the war constantly expanding in 1941 (with operations in North Africa, the Balkans, the Near East, possibly against Great Britain, and possibly against a Soviet attack), a long-term campaign in Spain is against Germany's interests and would divert resources needed elsewhere.
—John M. Astell

[Zovs]

Here are some of the design note from "There Finest Hour" by GDW and the Europa Series:

The German units need little in the way of commentary. Historically, the 1st and 3rd Panzer Divisions, SS Division Totenkopf, and 31st, 32nd, and 87th Infantry Divisions were removed from the force assigned to reinforce the landings in Britain, as the Germans concluded they had insufficient transport to bring and supply the entire force across the Channel. I have included these units in the order of battle, allowing the German player to make his own decisions in this area. For those interested in incidental details, only four of the eight antitank battalions are com posed of towed antitank guns. The remaining four (the 643rd, 521st, 169th, and 616th) are self-propelled, with a 4.7 cm antitank gun mounted on a turretless version of the Panzerkampfwagen I. Since they can not function as assault guns and are incapable of armor effects, they are given the same symbol as the towed guns.

The British Army is represented in the game at brigade level. This was done not only to emphasize the importance of British brigades, but to solve the problem of how to represent the lack of equipment of the British units. The Army had sent almost all of its available artillery and vehicles to equip the British Expeditionary Force in France, and the BEF abandoned almost all of its equipment when it was evacuated from France. The best way to portray this was at brigade level: an unsupported brigade is lacking in artillery and transport, while a supported brigade is fully equipped. Most British brigades start the game unsupported, and the British player may slowly rebuild the strength of the Army by equipping the brigades and assembling them into divisions.

The British redesignated a number of formations during the period covered by the game. Rather than include a number of counters to show such purely nominal changes, I used the latter designations of these units throughout. The units are the 56th (ex-1st London) and 47th (ex-2nd London) Infantry Divisions, the Essex (ex-West Sussex) County Division, and the 167th (ex-1st London), 168th (ex-2nd London), 71st (ex-3rd London), 140th (ex-4th London), and 150th (ex-5th London) Infantry Brigades.

The organization of the county divisions was slightly idealized (for purposes of simplicity) by allowing the British player to assemble them using a three-brigade structure. Dorset County Division actually contained only two brigades; Hampden County Division was composed of a single brigade. Players objecting to this simplified arrangement may feel free to stack the proper number of brigades together and call the stack a division.

The Royal Air Force started to receive American produced aircraft in the summer of 1940. In the initial period, most of these aircraft had been produced for other countries, and the British took delivery of them when the initial purchasing countries were conquered by the Germans. To avoid confusion, consistent model names are used for all American-export aircraft, regardless of which nation finally took delivery of them. The British designations (which are not used on the counters) for these air units are; p.400 - Airacobra I (U.S. P-39D), F2-A - Buffalo I, DB-7 — Havoc I (a Boston I bomber reworked in Britain into a night fighter), DB-7A — Havoc II (a Boston II con version, per the previous note), DB-7B — Boston III, A-22 - Maryland I, H75A-2 - Mohawk III (U.S. P-36C), P-40A — Tomahawk I, P-40B — Tomahawk HA, P-40C — Tomahawk IIB.
—John M. Astell

bold is mine...

[RangerJoe]

Irun is in Spain. It is right on the border. There is a bridge on the border, there is another bridge behind it. It is a very dry locale with only 1,649mm of rain per year or 64.9 inches of rain per year. Since it is mountainous, the rivers should cut deep without a broad river valley. The currents should also be fairly high as well - which makes it very easy to either swim across or paddle small boats across while under enemy fire.

https://www.viamichelin.com/web/Maps/Ma ... zcoa-Spain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irun

Also, with a low average relative humidity of 74 percent, that would not sap the energy of troops in combat or marching with all of their gear. There would also be an extremely low chance of fog or a low cloud ceiling.

Also, with such dry conditions with such small amounts of rain, there would be few if any small streams and rivers cutting across the roadways with steep sides and deep channels. Nope, there would be hardly any of those . . .