Against all odds - szmike (J) vs DesertWolf101 (A)

[szmike]

Welcome everyone,

I was convinced by my esteemed opponent to start AAR of our game, despite me being just a long time lurker of forum - since original Witp release I think, before registered.

My WitP:AE PBEM experience is minimal, only 2 games on Allied side which were put on pause by my opponents when covid situation started, and I doubt they will ever resume by now. They didn't go past 1942 either. I think I have fairly good knowledge of game mechanics, but I have trouble actually applying it correctly to the game situation. I consider myself lacking in operational and strategic department, at least compared to active AAR players. I've studied my opponent previous game AAR when he was playing Japanese side and I'm very impressed. It seems I'm jumping in very deep water, but I hope for good learning experience. I will also appreciate all input by readers.

Due to real life commitments I won't have time for regular AAR - so expect weekly/monthly summaries. Doing a turn takes priority.

We are playing DaBabes scen 28 on extended map with stacking limits. It's DaBabes version of scen 1.

Settings are pretty standard: FoW, advanced weather effects, Allied dmg control, realistic R&D, Dec7th surprise, PDU are on, with slight reinforcment variation.

House rules:
- no new TFs on T1 for Allies, no air groups relocation (except for China)
- no T1 CV hunting by Japanese, no deep raids e.g. Mersing gambit
- PPs for border crossing (China, Manchuria, India) - Thai and Indian units allowed in Burma
- no 4E naval bombing under 10k
- sweeps on second best maneuver band
- night bombing of ports/airfields by no more than 50 bombers per target
- no unlocking of restricted combat units through unrestricted air HQs to save PPs - base forces and AA units are OK
- no landing of troops on non-dot/base hexes
- paratrooper units must be recombined before they are dropped on another target again, but can be split dropped when whole
- no strategic bombing in China by either side (including Hong Kong).

[RangerJoe]

Good uck. If you do update more frequently then you could also ask for suggestions.

[Nomad]

Questions when you are not sure can be a big help, so ask away and we will try and help.

[bradcue]

Good luck! Playing the Empire for first time in PBEM can be alot. Post frequently and you can get help on the forum. Particularly things like R&D and Economy, you probably want advice there if you haven't played Japan before.

[Bif1961]

Have fun and it is always a learning experience no matter how long one has played.

[PaxMondo]

[szmike]

Economy

There are several things I don't know yet.
What is decent reserve of HI/supply/fuel for end game?
To that end, how much supply could be spent expanding industry in scen1 type game and not get choked on war side? I aim at historical expansion with some lightly/not defended targets of opportunity which could cost my enemy time to retake. My gut feeling is it depends on how badly damaged are oil wells/refinieries captured in DEI. Resources are more abundant and LI is rarely target of strat bombing, especially in odd places. But then with LI RoI it's more of future insurance, while there are some benefits of not hauled/wasted resources.
As for possible industrial expansion my goal is to produce locally and avoid hauling, apart from resources/fuel needed by Home Islands + building reserve there. My opponent asked for no China strat bombing HR, so I'm going to benefit from it too here. The only question is how much could be spent.

R&D

I gathered much information from excellent players advice in other AARs, even if there were some differences in approach. Additionally I've run continuous head-to-head turns in background until begining of 1943 to check how much R&D actually progresses. I know it is RNG based, but it was still useful experience. To that end I decided to put:
- most effort in:
1. Rufe into A6M8 - while Sam would be nice to have asap, factories don't seem to repair much and I can reassign more later towards this project when chances of repairing increase. In essence it's better to have A6M8 in 1942 than Sam maybe somewhere near the end of 1943 if lucky, the difference between investing now and investing later doesn't seem to be more than a month or two progress. The disadvantage being more HI/supply spent due to double expansion/repairs. I may be totally wrong here with my maths, we will see.
2. Frank
3. George
- medium effort in:
1. Grace
2. Judy
3. Tojo
4. Sam - too tempting
- small effort in:
1. Peggy T
2. Frances
3. Myrt night fighter
4. Randy night fighter
5. Ki-83
6. Shinden
I also left starting R&D factories of Toka, Tsurugi, Tabby, Judy recon and Zero night fighter for possible group resizing.

I realize my R&D may be too fragmented, but I'm ready to pay the price for it. I want to have some flavour too.

Aircraft production

I need many Oscars asap, until Tojos arrive. I also need many Zeroes for group resizing - using Taiyo for that - KB will be busy and spare aircraft will be lacking for quite some time anyway. Jakes and Dinah are in deficit, so they are produced. Some production is run for replacements of Mavis, Sallies, Betties, and transport Tinas, Sallies.

I couldn't decide what to do with my torpedo bombers production between Mabel, Kate1, Kate2 - the only differences between them are SR and engine used. I went for Kate2 because of SR1 instead of SR2 of the others, but I'm still not convinced and it's not too late/costly to change my mind yet. Kate1 has otherwise useless engine and I could spare Ha35 sooner for R&D bonus. How much of a disadvantage is SR2 on carriers?

[RangerJoe]

Not that much of a disadvantage for an SR2 on carriers for your Kates unless you plan on flying them turn after turn.

You might want to increase your LI in Fusan (Pusan) to encourage more resources to go there for shipment to the HI.

If you expand HI, if you do so in Manchuria, do it by 10 units at a time then check your supplies. I think that it would be better to make smaller increases in many places than one large increase at one place.

You might want to look up Mike Solli's AAR "Once More Into The Breach." It gets detailed about the logistics and has a nice discussion about aircraft research.

[szmike]

Vehicle production

I converted armament factory in Korea and expanded others to a total of 210.

Shipbuilding

Shinano is stopped. 1944 dated CVs are accelerated, Akitsuki type DDs are accelerated for use with KB. Yamato will be halted for a week then run when there are points to spare. I think I can afford a delay of her. Will there be clash battles to warrant her use? She's costly in fuel, as are all Japanese BBs, even if Kongos are slightly better here.
I also think of stopping all slow or short range submarines. I'm afraid they will become depth charge fodder. But some could be used as deep convoy nuisance, and lucky torpedo here and there (on enemy carrier maybe?) could be very useful.

I stopped production of most xAKs. I build tanker convertible StdA and StdB only. I may build some Aden class when necessary e.g. losses are high.
I accelarated LSDs (whole 2), AMC and CVEs slated for 1943.
Other ship production will be decided on case by case basis depending on needs.
Spare merchant shipyards are converted.

Ship conversions and designations

AKEs are needed badly, Lima class ships are designated as they have big enough holds to rearm BBs. On the other hand losing one means big supply loss, so smaller ships will also be used for forward rearming of cruisers and destroyers.
There will be several AD conversions of Akasi/Ehime class, DDs are rather fragile and ADs not only provide torpedoes, they also assist with repairs. They will be deployed forward and I expect some losses.
No AS, AG conversions are planned at this time, until the need arises. AGPs/AGs will be used later for PT support. Existing AGs will be used in small ports for escort rearm.
With many float plane groups available I think of converting couple more AVs for forward search when didbanded in dot bases. I have to think more about it and decide soon as conversions take 180 days.
AR conversions are not available until April/May 1942, so we have to wait. Meanwhile Kyushu/Husimi cargo ships will be used for safer, quick routes transport.
All possible cargo ship conversions to PB, AMc are undergoing.
Several ports have mines and no ACMs, so basically all To'su xAKL/AMc will be converted. I plan on using all mines available in key locations (choke points) on offense and defense. I also expect my opponent to use this tool freely, so minesweeper fleet is required. Slow Kiso class, which are not much use otherwise, will serve here, also as forward spotters of incoming surprises.

I have not decided on floatplane cruisers. There is enough time yet.

Convoy routes

I would like to use "magic" road Singapore to Fusan, if only for the sake of experiment. I have read much about it and I have mixed feelings when it comes to actual possibility, even if some people swear it works under circumstances. I tried against AI couple years ago and failed to notice significant moves, therefore good if it works, don't mind if not. Nevertheless Fusan is expanded as it has the shortest and the most safe route.
Other routes include: Hokkaido-Honshu, so Hakodate/Muroran ports are expanded; Sakhalin-Hokkaido; Taiwan, Okinawa, Amami Oshima to Kyushu.

Supply and fuel are needed for operations in Pacific, so convoys are prepared too. Forces in other areas will get what they need locally and from initial supply landings.

[szmike]

Thank you all for comments and encouragement.

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Not that much of a disadvantage for an SR2 on carriers for your Kates unless you plan on flying them turn after turn.

rather unlikely, but they may be better suited for some ASW while on route

You might want to increase your LI in Fusan (Pusan) to encourage more resources to go there for shipment to the HI.

it is one of locations for LI expansions

If you expand HI, if you do so in Manchuria, do it by 10 units at a time then check your supplies. I think that it would be better to make smaller increases in many places than one large increase at one place.

good, I didn't think about it

You might want to look up Mike Solli's AAR "Once More Into The Breach." It gets detailed about the logistics and has a nice discussion about aircraft research.

I was reading this AAR, may need to refresh points on logistics.

[821Bobo]

Vehicle production

I converted armament factory in Korea and expanded others to a total of 210.

Thats probably overkill. 100-120 are enough to fill up new builds. Of course more are needed to replenish losses but 210 seems to be just waste of supplies.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: 821Bobo

Vehicle production

I converted armament factory in Korea and expanded others to a total of 210.

Thats probably overkill. 100-120 are enough to fill up new builds. Of course more are needed to replenish losses but 210 seems to be just waste of supplies.

+1

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: szmike



Convoy routes

I would like to use "magic" road Singapore to Fusan, if only for the sake of experiment. I have read much about it and I have mixed feelings when it comes to actual possibility, even if some people swear it works under circumstances. I tried against AI couple years ago and failed to notice significant moves, therefore good if it works, don't mind if not. Nevertheless Fusan is expanded as it has the shortest and the most safe route.
Other routes include: Hokkaido-Honshu, so Hakodate/Muroran ports are expanded; Sakhalin-Hokkaido; Taiwan, Okinawa, Amami Oshima to Kyushu.

Magic Highway can work, search for previous responses of mine on the how to. Fusan is the best, but also the most difficult to effect. PA/Shanghai are fairly easy. Key to any success is that you must start on turn 1 and persevere. You should see it starting to work by Feb, and by Mar (assuming you have cleared Changsha area) you should be drawing all the way from Saigon or even Singers if clear.

To do this requires practice and if you have not been successful against the AI, you may not want to attempt in a PBEM. The purpose is that it can save you a lot of ships and allow you to setup ASW traps - kill zones. Meaning, you are going to change your ship build. If you don't succeed, then you need to be sure your ship build is adjusted to that reality.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: szmike

R&D

I gathered much information from excellent players advice in other AARs, even if there were some differences in approach. Additionally I've run continuous head-to-head turns in background until begining of 1943 to check how much R&D actually progresses. I know it is RNG based, but it was still useful experience. To that end I decided to put:
- most effort in:
1. Rufe into A6M8 - while Sam would be nice to have asap, factories don't seem to repair much and I can reassign more later towards this project when chances of repairing increase. In essence it's better to have A6M8 in 1942 than Sam maybe somewhere near the end of 1943 if lucky, the difference between investing now and investing later doesn't seem to be more than a month or two progress. The disadvantage being more HI/supply spent due to double expansion/repairs. I may be totally wrong here with my maths, we will see.
2. Frank
3. George
- medium effort in:
1. Grace
2. Judy
3. Tojo
4. Sam - too tempting
- small effort in:
1. Peggy T
2. Frances
3. Myrt night fighter
4. Randy night fighter
5. Ki-83
6. Shinden
I also left starting R&D factories of Toka, Tsurugi, Tabby, Judy recon and Zero night fighter for possible group resizing.

I realize my R&D may be too fragmented, but I'm ready to pay the price for it. I want to have some flavour too.

If you have been reading recent AAR's, then you know that A7M is your most important plane, getting it early is a game changer. To get it early requires dedicating at least 12 and up to 18 RnD factories. By early, we mean early-mid '44. While there are no guarantees, with sufficient RnD committment AND the engine bonus, it is possible achieve arrival dates of 3/44 or even earlier. 18x30 RnD means that when you get it, you can fill out a KB airgroup with A7M in 3 days, in 3 weeks completely convert the KB. The A7M in combination with the N1K is a very strong position for the IJN through end game.

The same can be said for getting Frank in mid-43. A game changer. Ki-83 later in the game is nice, but it isn't the game changer like Frank is. George is about the same impact as Frank, but you only need one of them to have the game impact. Hence, most players go for Frank for the IJA and then A7M for the IJN. You can only really focus on 2 AC RnD, so choose the 2 that give you the most bang for your buck.

Just my thoughts ...

[PaxMondo]

Your discussion about A6M and A7M, most players would disagree. A6M is outdated when the F6F arrives, period. The F6F was designed to kill the A6M and it does that very effectively. The A7M is designed to kill the F6F, and that is what it does. So, the KB is very vulnerable, and worse, at a serious strike disadvantage once the USN deploys the F6F until the KB gets the A7M. There are scores of AAR's that clearly establish this; failed KB attacks and then disastrous inability of the KB to defend.

That doesn't mean the A6M is a bad plane, but you need to look at it with the tactical perspective of how you want and need to use it.

Just some more thoughts, use as you see fit ...

[szmike]

Initial plan and opening moves

China

China is the reason this war even started. Ingame goal however is to knock it out as soon as possible, and while it won't make Allies peace out (not enough for autovictory), it would free considerable forces to fight Allied war machine elswhere. I'm of an opinion that it is easier said than done without big investment, especially against competent player. In my 2 Allied games I managed to dishearten my opponents to de facto cease fire here. I consider my current opponent to be very good at land warfare, so I will not be surprised if China stalemates eventually, especially with no strategic bombing HR.
To this end supply flow from India must be stopped and Chinese industry captured, while I will have to waste more of their supplies than is produced to starve them. Oil there is also useful.

Burma

Probing attacks by elements of 55th Division are planned in Burma initially with capturing of Moulmein as goal and thus getting base for aircraft to deny any shipping going to Rangoon. Flying Tigers are consideration, but at the time there are no assets available to use against them until other enemy bases have their air cover depleted in DEI.

Singapore

DEI with its resources has to be conquered quickly. Singapore is the major blocking point to that end, so capturing it is priority and gets the most focus. 7 divisions with associated major armour and artillery units are tasked with the goal. Initial convoys are rearranged and the forces will land in Kota Bharu - 18th Division, Signora and Pattani - 5th Division. Imperial Guards Division is going in via rail. 2nd Division is unloaded and will be repacked into more efficient convoy arrangement at Home Islands. Other divisions are waiting for assigned transports/escorts.

Port in Singapore will be bombed by IJN airforce, while major airfields on Malaya Peninsula are to be closed by IJA airforce, specifically Kuanatan, Kota Bharu, Alor Star.

I consider all-in Mersing too risky without carrier support.

Hong Kong

It is major base and thorn in the side, threatening nearby convoys and bases. To capture it quickly initial group will be reinforced by elements of 104th Division from Canton. Patrols of DD and CL/DD divisions are dispatched to deal with RN destroyers and PT boats around, but far enough to avoid running into minefields by reactions.

Borneo

While UK bases there are not threatening by themselves, they could house enemy float planes or patrol boats, and fuel enemy warhips. I expect my opponent to naval attack my forces with any float planes/patrol boats available as it became prevalent and quite efficient tactics. I would rather prevent it where possible.

Luzon

48th and 16th Divisions are to land there, capture Clark Field and split enemy forces. With stacking limits it is not feasible for Allies to keep all available forces in one place, and abandoning Bataan is rather unlikely either as it would remove major obstacle for Japan, so I expect enemy to spread his units a bit. With Clark Field Japanese could bomb remaining forces to starvation, so the goal is to capture it and contain enemy. Bombing campaign will keep Clark Field closed until captured. B17s are major threat and have to be destroyed/damaged on airfields and contained to smaller bases to limit their impact.

Mindanao

Major landing is planned in Cagayan. Goals are: capture lvl 4 airfield for Nells/Betties denying it to enemy and destroy any B17s caught there. Rjuyo airforce is to bomb it and damage any bombers it possibly can.

Other DEI consideration is the need for ports, lvl 3 at least, for any close emergency repairs when warships are critically damaged and too far from Babeldaob/Cam Rahn Bay.

Pacific

I was considering giving my opponent his own medicine and attack Australian ports with its shipping, but decided against it. It could be done at any other time as well e.g. in a month or so, and I'd rather have KB cover landings and deny free reign to Allied carriers, while my convoys are at sea between Japan and Pacific bases. Striking PH is not to be underestimated either, although results vary between pathetic and major damage. Killing any Catalinas is good bonus.
Thinking of Catalinas and having TF of destroyes set to bombard Midway by default got me thinking why not capture it outright? Widen the gap of no eyes in Central Pacific, while getting eyes at the same time.
Thus capturing Midway T1 is the goal as well as Guam, while 144th Regiment could be free to use elsewhere. Wake will have to wait for KB cover.

[szmike]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: szmike

R&D

I gathered much information from excellent players advice in other AARs, even if there were some differences in approach. Additionally I've run continuous head-to-head turns in background until begining of 1943 to check how much R&D actually progresses. I know it is RNG based, but it was still useful experience. To that end I decided to put:
- most effort in:
1. Rufe into A6M8 - while Sam would be nice to have asap, factories don't seem to repair much and I can reassign more later towards this project when chances of repairing increase. In essence it's better to have A6M8 in 1942 than Sam maybe somewhere near the end of 1943 if lucky, the difference between investing now and investing later doesn't seem to be more than a month or two progress. The disadvantage being more HI/supply spent due to double expansion/repairs. I may be totally wrong here with my maths, we will see.
2. Frank
3. George
- medium effort in:
1. Grace
2. Judy
3. Tojo
4. Sam - too tempting
- small effort in:
1. Peggy T
2. Frances
3. Myrt night fighter
4. Randy night fighter
5. Ki-83
6. Shinden
I also left starting R&D factories of Toka, Tsurugi, Tabby, Judy recon and Zero night fighter for possible group resizing.

I realize my R&D may be too fragmented, but I'm ready to pay the price for it. I want to have some flavour too.

If you have been reading recent AAR's, then you know that A7M is your most important plane, getting it early is a game changer. To get it early requires dedicating at least 12 and up to 18 RnD factories. By early, we mean early-mid '44. While there are no guarantees, with sufficient RnD committment AND the engine bonus, it is possible achieve arrival dates of 3/44 or even earlier. 18x30 RnD means that when you get it, you can fill out a KB airgroup with A7M in 3 days, in 3 weeks completely convert the KB. The A7M in combination with the N1K is a very strong position for the IJN through end game.

The same can be said for getting Frank in mid-43. A game changer. Ki-83 later in the game is nice, but it isn't the game changer like Frank is. George is about the same impact as Frank, but you only need one of them to have the game impact. Hence, most players go for Frank for the IJA and then A7M for the IJN. You can only really focus on 2 AC RnD, so choose the 2 that give you the most bang for your buck.

Just my thoughts ...

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Your discussion about A6M and A7M, most players would disagree. A6M is outdated when the F6F arrives, period. The F6F was designed to kill the A6M and it does that very effectively. The A7M is designed to kill the F6F, and that is what it does. So, the KB is very vulnerable, and worse, at a serious strike disadvantage once the USN deploys the F6F until the KB gets the A7M. There are scores of AAR's that clearly establish this; failed KB attacks and then disastrous inability of the KB to defend.

That doesn't mean the A6M is a bad plane, but you need to look at it with the tactical perspective of how you want and need to use it.

Just some more thoughts, use as you see fit ...

Thank you for your input.

Based on it I have to notice though, that whatever course of action I apply R&D wise, KB is of no use in 1943/early 1944, unless with really good odds and good LBA support, and certainly not against Deathstar. Which means it could be good to force beneficial carrier battle in 1942 to at least remove some Allied carriers off the board which is neither easy nor a sure affair, so I'd have to count on enemy mistake. Either way it doesn't look encouraging.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: szmike

Based on it I have to notice though, that whatever course of action I apply R&D wise, KB is of no use in 1943/early 1944, unless with really good odds and good LBA support, and certainly not against Deathstar. Which means it could be good to force beneficial carrier battle in 1942 to at least remove some Allied carriers off the board which is neither easy nor a sure affair, so I'd have to count on enemy mistake. Either way it doesn't look encouraging.

Very true. Alas, most allied players will not oblige any carrier action until they have upgraded their CV's AND have F6F on board, which is about 5/43 or so. The key is that if you are able to get the A7M in early '44, the KB is almost as big as the DS at that time. The difference usually is that the F6F is so superior that the allies will take CV combat figuring at worst an even trade of CV's which is a crushing loss for the IJ. However, with the A7M, you can distort that outcome; 2:1 or even higher is definitely in the cards. That is really a stalemate, which for the IJ is a win as you delay further allied action in the pacific for 6 - 8 months ... meaning pushing them into '45.

[PaxMondo]

BTW, all of my comments relate to Scen 1. I've never played S28, but my understanding of it is that the above should all be even more true than in S1.

[Q-Ball]

Seems like you are on the right path, a couple additional comments:
--I would produce the B5N1 (early Kate) just to use up those old engines. The SR2 does not hurt CV operations much at all. But there are alot of demands on the Ha-35 engine, better to save those for Oscar/Zero etc.
--YAMATO I think can be easily delayed if you are strained for NSY. Work on it as you can. I kind of prefer to run it with MUSASHI, so delays into fall '42 not a big deal.
--Very minor point, but build a small factory for the Topsy I, just to use up the engine pool on that. You don't really need to expand Ha-31 line, this will help you keep it small. Topsy I is nearly identical to Topsy II otherwise.