Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Initiative.
No advantage, allies win ties. Both sides wish to move first but neither will re-request a re-roll if they lose the first roll. AX=8, AL=8. Allies win tie, axis decline re-roll and allies elect to move first.
January 1, 1941. The Staff Meeting.
(1) Major O'Conner, now LTC O'Conner, received both a well earn promotion and transfer from London. He now is attached directly to General Alexander's staff. General Alexander who's currently in Malta is (had been) designated as Commander and Chief of all British ground and air forces in the Med. LTC O'Conner's ultimate objective is a combat command.
(2) LTC O'Conner is tasked by General Alexander to continue his study the allied situation on Sicily and provide General Alexander daily summaries 30-minutes prior to the General's daily staff meetings each day at 0800.
(3) General Alexander at his pleasure may, and has occasionally on a weekly/bi-weekly basis, asked LTC O'Conner to brief his report at the staff meeting with the understanding not to exceed 5-minutes unless extended by General Alexander himself.
(4) LTC O'Conner has been given the authority to call a "FLASH" situational report which automatically extends the in-person briefing invitation and with no time limit imposed. General Alexander made it very clear that such a call by LTC O'Conner better warrant it or he may see his rank reduced back to Major and reassigned back to London.
(5) Not surprisingly, LTC O'Conner has not called a "FLASH" in the almost two months to being assigned to General Alexander's staff and given this task.
(6) Not unit today, New Year's Day 1942. LTC O'Conner has called his first "FLASH". Needless to say the future his military career, but more significantly the lives or many of his countrymen and allies are on the line.
(7) LTC O'Conner with his staff of 2 officers and 9 NCOs have been working day and night for the past week and beyond their normal work duties on a plan that may secure Sicily within the next two weeks. The urgency is that if the allies don't act now then the axis may be able to keep the allies bottled up in Sicily for another 4 or even 6 months.
(8) LTC O'Conner is the first to arrive for 0800 staff meeting. He's there by 0730. As other more senior officers file in (including more 4 general officers besides Alexander) he can feel their curious eyes briefing looking him over.
(9) General Alexander walks in right before 0800 and the room stands to attention. The General motions for everyone to sit down and points to LTC O'Conner to begin.
January 1, 1941. The FLASH Report.
Summary of LTC O'Conner's "FLASH" report, recorded by aide to General Alexander.
1. O'Conner started with that today we are at fighter parity and have an advantage in bombers over Sicily. However, within two to four weeks we could very likely lose all this and be at a serious disadvantage in both fighters and bombers.
(a) We have 2 RAF and 1 carrier fighter group currently supporting Sicily: (1) Spitfire I (5 a2a), (2) Spitfire II (6 a2a), (3) CVP Gladiator (3 a2a)
(b) Axis have 2 Italian fighter groups within CAP range but outside of intercept range of Sicily: (1) Falco II (5a2a) and (2) Freccia (4 a2a).
(c) However, they have a 3rd group (Macchi C.202, 5 a2a) within 1-rebase and Germany has two strong fighter groups (Bf-109 F3 and Bf-109 F2 both 6 a2a) within 2 rebases.
(d) Additional allied fighters need valuable sea-lift which is at premium and might take 4 to 6 months to regain fighter parity at the current allocation to ground vs air base missions.
(e) RAF/RN have 4 tactical bomber groups that currently can/does support Sicily: (1) Hampden (3 TAC), Harrow ATR (2 TAC), Blenheim (3 TAC) and Vildebeest NAV (1 TAC). Prospects for additional bomber groups not good given the priority of getting more fighter groups to the beachhead.
(f) Axis have 1 TAC bomber group in range, P.108B (3 TAC) which has caused us problems in the past. However, they have several groups within 1 rebase: (1) Macchi C.202 F/B (1 TAC), Gabbiano NAV (1 TAC), Ca. 133 (1 TAC), Ge He 115 C NAV (1 TAC) and 2 F/B groups within 2 rebases (Ge Bf 109 F-3 (1 TAC) & Bf 109 F-2 (2 TAC).
2. Also, within 2 weeks O'Conner believes that the axis will move another (white print) corps/garrison into Messina (by rail) and significantly increase defense.
3. Immediately, the allies need to seize the mountain hex directly west of Messina, south-east of Palermo, or this will allow Germany's XXX corps to move into that hex and effectively bottle up the allies where they currently are.
4. Personal Note [by Alexander's Aide]: Not sure why O'Conner called a "FLASH" for this. With significant could have just as well been covered in his daily reports which are mandatory reading by all that attend the General's staff meeting. But to his credit, General Alexander 5-minutes into O'Conner's "FLASH" is still listening patiently.
5. BOMBSHELL just dropped by O'Conner and I'm quoting directly, "If we don't act now to take Messina we may not be able to clear Sicily for 6 to possibly 12 months. My staff and I have worked out the details of plan that can be launched in the next two weeks which we estimate has best case 79% chance of success and absolute worst case of 32%. Even at 32% we believe the risk is worth taking. The plan calls for at attack by the Royal Marine Corps, London MIL corps and 2nd inf division with transport support from the RN and French navy and bombardment support from the RN. The risk beyond failure is of course loss of the attacking units, most significantly the Royal Marine corps. Best case that risk is 6% (i.e., all attacking units lost) and worse case it's 16.5%."
6. After dropping that bombshell, O'Conner passed out a summary of his attack plan, which he's calling, "Operation Dog Run".
7. General Alexander allowed O'Conner another 5 minutes to go through his plan, after which he excused O'Conner from the staff meeting and ordered him to return at 1300 hours.
8. General Alexander allowed discussion within his staff to proceed for another 15 minutes on the proposed operation. After which he ended his staff meeting and asked his deputy Army Group Commander, a major general, and the corps and division commanders in attendance to remain behind.
9. 1300 hours. General Alexander met with O'Conner to inform his that his plan was a go with the land combat assault scheduled for January 15th starting at 0500 hours, even through continued rain was in the forecast. The General then assigned his deputy commander, a major general, to take charge of the execution of Operation Dog Run and provide the necessary brass required for coordination with the RAF, RN and Free French navy.
January 1, 1941. Operation Dog Run.
The Plan.
(1) CW combine, Free French naval.
(2) Though HQ support from either Alexander (+2) or Wavell (+1.5) was desirable, and risky, it wasn't feasible because of the rain. Any plan for either HQ to move into the mountain hex directly west of Messina resulted in a flip. So, any HQ support was not possible.
(3) RN move #1. Queens in Malta move directly to Homs, Libya, embark the 5-3 London MIL and then move directly to Palermo where the MIL is automatically disembarked.
(4) RN move #2. From Malta, 6 Queen Elizabeth BBs, 2 TRS, CA & CV to 3-box of Italian Coast. 2 TRS load Alexander HQ-I and eng mot div from Malta.
(5) Free French naval move #1. French CA in Homs, Libya loads British 2nd inf div and moves to 3-box of Italian Coast.
(6) Free French naval move #2. French TRS in Trapani to 2-box, East Med and loads 43rd mot div & Bofers AA div in Tripoli.
(7) RAF ground strike (4 air groups/missions) used vs out-of-supply German XXX corps holding Messina. Though, Italian CAP over hex is possible but estimated as unlikely, Italian intercept isn't. So it's expected that this ground strike goes in unmolested. If not, RAF FTR & RN CVP FTR could/will provide escort. (SCRIPT: Though as the axis I know what the allies are planning, if I didn't I estimate that I'd be very unlikely to fly Italian CAP against a CW ground strike over Messina. Therefore, no CAP).
(8) There's a 48.16% chance that the OOS elite German corps will be flipped by the ground strike, which would reduce it's defense factors from 5 to 3, which are doubled because of mountain terrain, and give +2 to the land combat.
(9) CW Land Moves x 3. Royal Marine corps, London MIL in Palermo move and 2nd inf div disembarks to mountain hex directly west of Messina for a total of 12 land factors.
(10) 6 Queen Elizabeth BBs in 3-box will provide shore bombardment. Because of the weather each ship's bombardment is reduced by 1 which means 15 total factors reduced to 9.
(11) The Italians have the possibility of 2 ground support factors if their bomber gets through.
(12) 5 land combat scenarios were examined: (1) Baseline, 5 factors of ground support, no Italian ground support, XXX corps n0t ground struck (i.e., organized). (2) Worse Case, no allied ground support, XXX corps not flipped and +2 Italian ground support. (3) Best Case. XXX corps flipped and no Italian ground support. (4) XXX corps flipped and +2 Italian ground support. (5) XXX corps not flipped and no ground support.
(13) If the RAF manages to flip XXX corps (48.15%) then the chance of success is 66 to 79% with chance of disaster (loss of all three attackers) of 6 to 7.8%.
(14) If the RAF doesn't flip XXX corps (51.85%) then the chance of success reduces greatly to 32 to 37.8% with the chance of disaster of 14.6 to 16.5%.
(15) For higher ups (i.e., PM Churchill & Sir John Dill) all this is boiled down into two numbers: Pr{Success}=53% & Pr{disaster}=11%.
(16) Effectively, Operation Dog Run is a coin flip with about a 1 in 10 chance of total disaster. However, the gains by far out weight the risk even given the 11% chance of a total disaster.
(17) As an ultimate failsafe, all currently held allied hexes in Sicily, including the ports of Palermo & Trapani will maintain a garrison of at least one div or corps ground unit, thus preventing captured by the OOS Italian 1st inf div.
(18) Also, a successful attack followed by an organized, or reorganized, Royal marine corps in Messina will force the axis to move a unit to the hex south-east of Reggio (directly east of Messina) or see the Royal Marine corps establish a bridgehead in mainland Italy.
