By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR

[Oberost]

Testing as required...

Edit: useless post by me, seems that Erik already solved the forum issues.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: Oberost

Testing as required...

Edit: useless post by me, seems that Erik already solved the forum issues.

Thanks! Appreciate the check. All's good now. [:)]

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. US Entry.

1. Prior: GE/IT=42/30 (30% DOW Success) & JPN=38/29 (30%). US gets 2 draws.
2. 1st draw, GE/IT=4-val. GE/IT=48/30 (60%) & JPN=40/29 (40%).
3. 2nd draw, JPN=3-val. GE/IT=50/30 (70%) & JPN=45/29 (70%).
3. The US reaches the trigger point for both Germany/Italy and Japan to DOW the US.
4. If the allies move first then the US, starting with Germany/Italy, the allies will check to see if they attempt a DOW.
5. If D10 <= DOW %/10 then they will attempt. If they succeed at DOW on Germany/Italy or don't make the attempt then they will check to see if they attempt DOW on Japan.
6. Going to get interesting.

That #5 is very conservative. If the US has a 70% chance, they should take it, because their odds really can't improve very much. 60% is pretty good, too. 50% is dubious.

I agree against a human opponent at 70% as the US I would attempt the DOW. I'm trying to add some "fog of war" into this DOW decision for both sides. Realistically, human vs human the axis not knowing exactly where the US DOW %'s were at would likely have already DOW them. But possibly not ... hence my attempt with axis DOW trigger and US DOW probability trigger.

Honestly, there's some things I think I like how they were scripted (e.g., Japanese-USSR "uneasy" peace followed by non-aggression pact). And there are things I'm not so please with (Winter war and Finland).

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. WACS.

1. As can be gleamed from this turn's Weather, Action, Combat Summary (WACS), the US is brought into the war. More on that in a bit.
2. I also made a script change regarding oil.

Script Change.
I decided to revoke the limitations I place on only using saved oil for reorg and not being able to use saved oil for production. I'm going to revert back to MWiF RAC/WiF RAW wrt/oil. After a lot of thought I decided that I was trying to make an abstraction (e.g., how oil and production are modelled in MWiF have a more "historical" feel. These two abstractions have evolved over 1,000,000's hours of play and I decided I should just leave it alone and play it as coded.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Resource Lending/Grants.

1. Axis: No changes made to discretionary grants, which is (only) Germany to Italy, 5 non-oil RPs.
2. Allied: CW increases their discretionary grants by 1 non-oil to USSR. With war likely this turn the US stops their 2 oil to CW
3. Allied discretionary grants are: (1) CW to USSR,3 non-oil and (2) Free France to China, 1 non-oil.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Initiative.

1. Axis +1 and win ties.
2. Axis=4+1=5, Allied=8. Allies with the first roll.
3. Given all that's at stake even with the lousy weather forecast for Europe, the axis elect to re-roll.
4. No advantage for 2nd roll but axis still win ties.
5. Axis=4, Allied=4, and a good thing they do. Axis win the initiative and elect to move first.

A bit of elaboration on #3 above is necessary. What's at stake is that if the allies get the initiative and move first then there's a very good chance that the US will "preemptively" DOW Japan and Japan will lose the surprise advantage necessary to invade the Dutch East Indies, Philippines and elsewhere.

Now speaking of Japan declaring war on the US, well actually the Western Allies. Frankly speaking Japan is only partially prepared for their DOW on the Western Allies. However, with the US at 70% DOW success (for both Japan and Germany) it was imperative that the axis move first and get the jump on the US before they could get the jump on them. Japan has four key units (Yamamoto HQ-I, Imp Guard Mar, 1st inf div & 2nd inf div) tied up in Southern China against the Nationalist and with no short-term disengagement of these units in sight. This leaves them with the bare minimum of forces for their surprise invasion impulse to take key oil RPs, Hong Kong, Rabul, invade the Philippines and Malaya. In fact, getting forces down to Malaya will require double duty of the two divisions that are to take the Balikpapan and Tarakan Oil.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #1. IJN Post Naval (Overview).

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #1. IJN Post Naval (Detailed).

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #1. Combat Logs.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #1. South China Sea.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #1. Rabul.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #3. Post Naval. Pacific.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #3. Post Naval. The Marshalls.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #3. Combat Logs.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #8. Combat Logs.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #8. Marshalls and Surrounding Areas.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #8. South China Sea. Philippines.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #11. Combat Logs.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #11. Manila.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Asian. Combat Logs.