New Scenario for Testing "Right of Passage"

[.Sirius]

ORIGINAL: Lukew

A further point to add to the above. In addition to the second Chinese carrier group the Chinese, given that they are apparently preparing for an attack should have considerable additional air force assets available. Also adding some additional DF-21 batteries n mainland China would be a good idea since China plans a major attack against the Queen Elizabeth Carrier Group In the pre war phase China should be engaged on extensive reconnaissance and harassments of the Queen Elizabeth Carrier Group. There might be a chance that this will lead to the premature outbreak of hostilities. There are a number of possible flashpoints for this.

The outbreak of fighting between China and various Asia states was noticeable but needs some explanation when it happens. You might do this by means of a "Press Release" message (eg from Reuters (or other news agency of your choice) reporting that fighting between China and various Pacific States (Philippines, Malaysia etc)in the South China Sea. This will trigger a message from London to the Queen Elizabeth Carrier Group updating ROE and orders. Will the commander be instructed to increase defensive posture but avoid getting into hostilities unless attacked or does London want to take a more aggressive stance? If so what actions does London authorize at this stage bearing in mind this may precipitate war with China. How is Washington going to react (this is where the additional US Carrier Group I suggested might come in(or alternatively it could be a smaller Assault ship. This may or may not come under player control. This force might be engaged in military exercises somewhere and will be deployed as reinforcements if or when Washington decides to do so. Japan might make a similar deployment decision to reinforce the SCS area.

Remember also the importance of the SCS international shipping routes which will be busy with large cargo ships, oil tankers etc. This might result in an escalatory incident of its' own, possibly triggering deployments above and certainly messages concerning diplomatic protests and new military instructions. Also the presence of civilian flight routes should further confuse things with the possibility of a plane being shot down (or possibly a plane crash wrongly thought to be due to military action on someone's part due to the high military tensions in the region.

Probably a few satellites might also be added.

Since this scenario is probably intended to result in a military clash matters will always move in that direction but raising the tension will be important.

Hi all noted and will amend scenario [:)]

[magi]

First I would like to say that I like the idea of the scenario a lot .... One feature I find very pleasing as what I call layers of events.... merchant shipping Biologics multiple nations with their own interests in missions ..... very cool I would add even more commercial shipping ....
However there are a few things I am not fond of ..... I do not see why Allied ships would be on separate sides .... it would be natural for them to coordinate their activities especially in changing events .....
I do not understand why the NEO group and group 14721 are both in the same area with two separate missions ....
Group 14721 seems unreasonably under escorted… The Japanese destroyer with them I do not even know if it’s in service any longer ....
I manually launch the NEO mission and had it received by 14721 .... I took the NEO Victoria group put it in the middle of the South China Sea and had it rendezvous with the Queen Elizabeth group ....

Possibly it is me but I found points in the briefing to be ambiguous.... especially in the actions I can take when being harassed or the counter aggressive behavior .... I finally decided any Chinese vessels aggressively approaching my assets were to be prosecuted ......
I don’t know what action I am able to take into defense of neutral states ....
When I do prosecute Chinese assets it is not trigger general outbreak of conflict… I did not know if that is by design ....

As I said in my original post I deleted most of the missions except some basic ones ..... I do not believe you need defined FONOP areas..... in the briefing you can give the missions objectives and general operating areas ...... and allow the player can manipulate his assets as he so chooses to accomplish the mission .....

It would be simpler if all the tankers are centerline boom enabled or they were more of each type .....

I would like to say that I really think this is very clever what you were doing here and it could end up being one of my favorite scenarios ever ...
I see that you posted a new version of this and I will download it after I am finished here so some of my comments may not be relevant .....

[.Sirius]

Hi good points there I'm inthe middle of updating the scenario .

[.Sirius]

Hi guys latest version will be pushed out in the next few days proberly Mon-Tue,I will strengthen NEO TG and put them under OPCON of UK and Coalition Forces, have added Reagan CVBG position north of Singapore, also added Japanse Task Group based around their latest "Helicopter Destroyer Carrier" with USMC F-35 embarked both these units will be under their own countries OPCON, will be adding mainland based DF-21 and addition PLAAF Regiments on the mainland. COMAIR added and shipping lane traffic

[magi]

ORIGINAL: .Sirius

Hi guys latest version will be pushed out in the next few days proberly Mon-Tue,I will strengthen NEO TG and put them under OPCON of UK and Coalition Forces, have added Reagan CVBG position north of Singapore, also added Japanse Task Group based around their latest "Helicopter Destroyer Carrier" with USMC F-35 embarked both these units will be under their own countries OPCON, will be adding mainland based DF-21 and addition PLAAF Regiments on the mainland. COMAIR added and shipping lane traffic

wow.... cool.... but this will be big.... i think you should do it as a big and small version.....

[.Sirius]

ORIGINAL: magi

ORIGINAL: .Sirius

Hi guys latest version will be pushed out in the next few days proberly Mon-Tue,I will strengthen NEO TG and put them under OPCON of UK and Coalition Forces, have added Reagan CVBG position north of Singapore, also added Japanse Task Group based around their latest "Helicopter Destroyer Carrier" with USMC F-35 embarked both these units will be under their own countries OPCON, will be adding mainland based DF-21 and addition PLAAF Regiments on the mainland. COMAIR added and shipping lane traffic

wow.... cool.... but this will be big.... i think you should do it as a big and small version.....

It's getting more like a "LIVE DLC" every update[:)] got some of my (I'm ex RN) Military friends on HMS Queen Elizabeth who play CMO, I'll get them to test it also

[Lionheart]

Enjoyed this. Really intriguing narrative.

Seeing as most of the countries in the UK & Coalition side are FPDA/Commonwealth I thought that the potent Republic of Singapore Air Force might have been brought into play instead of a US CVBG airwing.

The 'unfriendly' Chinese Coastguard ship CCG 2901 that sunk MV Exodus and attacked HMS Kent didn't change posture to hostile.

I thought the Singaporeans and Malaysians have too much autonomy when I saw their Hawks attempt to attack the Chinese SAG, maybe grant player control.

Looking forward to the next version.

[.Sirius]

Hi Guys

Scenario updated and uploaded.
1. NEO Task Group now part of UK and Coaltion Forces so under your OPCON.
2. Added COMAIR and Shipping Lane VLCC's.
3. Added Singaporean F-16's to Labuan Air Base.
4. Added additional Chinese CVBG and SSK's.
5. Additional DF-21 Sites added
6. United States side added with Reagan CVBG and LA SSN.
7. Japanese Task Group added with latest DDH carrYing USMC F-35.
8. Added New Report pop up

this is still work in progress and will be amending as I go along

[magi]

ORIGINAL: .Sirius

ORIGINAL: magi

ORIGINAL: .Sirius

Hi guys latest version will be pushed out in the next few days proberly Mon-Tue,I will strengthen NEO TG and put them under OPCON of UK and Coalition Forces, have added Reagan CVBG position north of Singapore, also added Japanse Task Group based around their latest "Helicopter Destroyer Carrier" with USMC F-35 embarked both these units will be under their own countries OPCON, will be adding mainland based DF-21 and addition PLAAF Regiments on the mainland. COMAIR added and shipping lane traffic

wow.... cool.... but this will be big.... i think you should do it as a big and small version.....

It's getting more like a "LIVE DLC" every update[:)] got some of my (I'm ex RN) Military friends on HMS Queen Elizabeth who play CMO, I'll get them to test it also

darn.... thats great.....

[magi]

i will check this out......

[Lukew]

I hope to have some time to test this over the weekend. Having looked at this in the editor mode I think China should have at least a few more aircraft regiments for when this turns into a hot war plus several more SAGs and submarines harassing and eventually attacking Western forces. Adding a side for Vietnam with the potential for a Sino - Vietnamese clash over the Spratley Islands and Paracel Islands creating an escalation in the conflict might very well be worthy of consideration. More commercial shipping on the trade routes would be good (I suggest several large oil tankers and a variety of other commercial shipping using the trade routes.

I would eventually like to see this developing into a multi day scenario (say 2 - 3 days Simulating the opening phase of a major Pacific Rim conflict. At some point for example China might deliberately escalate through attacking the merchant shipping routes particularly using air and submarine assets.

For now continue to develop this from the UK perspective but, at a later stage, this one might be made playable to other sides eg US, China etc. You may want to bear this in mind over the longer term. Something like this might be a great DLC or equivalent [8D]

[.Sirius]

Hi thanks for the review, I have already added Vietnam in the build I have at the moment,increased PLAAF Regiments and PLAN Task Groups and Submarine, next build will be released this Monday and Tuesday.

[Lukew]

Sounds great Paul. Incremental development allows for incremental testing. As touched on earlier it would be good to have multi side options with this allowing the player to game the scenario from differing perspectives. For example the initial mission for the Japanese 1st Escort Group might be twofold. Firstly they are officially on maritime exercises but (less officially) they are tracking the Chinese carrier group and other PLAN units that may be in the area passing on intel as required. As hostilities open Tokyo will make a decision regarding Japanese reactions. The Reagan CVBG group might have a very different initial mission. Perhaps they are officially simply passing through the SCS region, monitoring PLAN activities passing intel to certain parties but not to others. As the situation develops into hostilities they may move to limited involvement in support of the UK, Vietnam or the Asian states but not necessarily to everyone and not necessarily simultaneously. We could here be simulating political vacillation by a new Biden administration leery of involvement in an escalating Pacific Rim Crisis/war.

Additional non player sides might be added such as Brunei and Indonesia may be added. These might have an interest in the developing conflict and may (or may not) become involved depending on developments. Indonesia has a dispute with China over the Natuna Islands. Brunei has a claim to Louisa Reef China should perhaps have more capability around the Spratly Islands and perhaps a plan to seize all or part of them - I am taking some inspiration from 'Humphrey Hawksley's Dragon Strike which you may have read

https://www.humphreyhawksley.com/book/dragon-strike/


One might also consider variance in available units and dispositions for uncertainty and replay value

[Lukew]

A quick addendum to my previous message. You might consider adding a US Marine force tasked with their own humanitarian mission to assist with the Hong Kong evacuation but there is also a medical emergency in Vietnam (a virulent and lethal new Covid strain causing hospitals to overflow. This will require the US and perhaps the international force assisting with Hong Kong to divert resources to assist with this new humanitarian crisis. These could later be caught up in combat between China and Vietnam causing escalation in the international military crisis developing in the SCS. Note in the briefing about the medical crisis in Vietnam followed by a Reuters News Flash message triggering appropriate messages to those needing to know/ Points deducted for failure to supply timely medical aid as the Covid crisis in Vietnam escalates.....

[Lukew]

Couple of points to note

1 The Song Class sub placed near the QE CVBG fired torpedoes at the battlegroup shortly after the warning message from Northwood/ Since that was definitely an Act of War I regarded that as very sound justification for marking it as hostile - the Chinese initiated hostilities by firing torpedoes at my carrier group Britain is now at war with China. For this situation there may need to be a response from London and from allies including the US. Similarly they should react in some way, militarily or politically, to the outbreak of hostilities. Such responses might vary considering the new Democrat Administration which may very well be leery of getting involved with hostilities and the resulting wariness of regional allies to become involved in hostilities. A variety of messages and actions might reflect this with some governments waiting for a US lead which will be slower in coming. Until something happens to drag the US into war....

2 I noticed that you have introduced satellites into the scenario but somehow you have managed to get a phalanx of no less than eight (Chinese Yaogan satellites operating together! Which I don't think was your intention!

[img]

[.Sirius]

Hi all noted, the Song going Hot early was an error on my part the ASW Missions for UK had weapons free, all the other points are noted [:)]

[Lukew]

Note that it was the Chinese Song that fired first. I had detected it near the carrier group earlier and had a couple of helicopters prosecuting the contact as a threat to the carrier group. In the real world one could rationalize this by arguing that the Son Captain felt extremely threatened, panicked, jumped he gun and opened fire.

Actually the possibility of an over zealous commander (in this case the captain of the Song) jumping the gun is not such a bad idea. Wars can start by mistake in a very tense political and military crisis with major forces maneuvering in close proximity. I call it "The Camlann Effect" after the final battle of Arthurian legend. However, it might be advisable to limit the effect by making this possible rogue sub a side of its' own or making this so with selected Chinese subs. This way we still get the idea of a major escalation without necessarily precipitating all out war. A subsequent series of messages and instructions might reflect a confused political response to this incident. The Chinese then use this as a justification for readying their DF-21 attack and other actions indicating military preparations for war. The Allied side now have greater political justification for the pre-emptive strike on Woody Island. However, the question for historians might be did WW3 start over a deliberate Chinese provocation (the plan to attack the QE CVBG was always intended) or did someone miscalculate precipitating a war by mistake? The scenario does not have to provide an answer to this question but it should encourage thought about such issues.

[magi]

well.... ive been switching sides modifying their missions..... i started engaging any Chinese units assets that posed an immediate potential threat.... but now ive gone musashi and attacking anything of theirs....
i did lose an f35 being stupid.... very annoying..... the chinese response to my actions have been under whelming...... but im having fun.....

[Lukew]

Launched an airstrike on the Chinese Carrier Group. 3 F-35s shot down. Considerable air losses have been inflicted on the Chinese Carrier Group air wing but damage on the escort ships is unknown at this time. The British may be able to claim some minor success on these criteria There seems to be a Chinese sub in the Banares Straits which fired two volleys of vampires at the carrier group, sinking HMS Northumberland and doing minor damage to Queen Elizabeth. The submarine and the missiles were not identified. The Queen Elizabeth group is pulling back while HMS Audacious moves into position. This first major action might therefore be regarded as more of a draw. The plan now is to try to draw the Chinese Carrier onto HMS Audacious

There have been no Chinese air attacks from the mainland as yet but this may change later. Chinese actions still seem quite limited for now though but I suspect escalation is probable at this stage.

[.Sirius]

ORIGINAL: Lukew

Launched an airstrike on the Chinese Carrier Group. 3 F-35s shot down. Considerable air losses have been inflicted on the Chinese Carrier Group air wing but damage on the escort ships is unknown at this time. The British may be able to claim some minor success on these criteria There seems to be a Chinese sub in the Banares Straits which fired two volleys of vampires at the carrier group, sinking HMS Northumberland and doing minor damage to Queen Elizabeth. The submarine and the missiles were not identified. The Queen Elizabeth group is pulling back while HMS Audacious moves into position. This first major action might therefore be regarded as more of a draw. The plan now is to try to draw the Chinese Carrier onto HMS Audacious

There have been no Chinese air attacks from the mainland as yet but this may change later. Chinese actions still seem quite limited for now though but I suspect escalation is probable at this stage.

In the middle of updating and yes it does begin to warm up , PLAAF response is via Event timings with H-6 and carrier strike AC