Pro-Axis coup in Iraq?

[mdsmall]

Will still there be a pro-Axis coup in Iraq once the Axis has units is within two hexes or El Alamein (or 5 hexes of Alexandria or Amman), if Iraq is already Axis aligned but not fully mobilized? The Strategy Guide is a bit unclear about this event. It describes various Decision Events for the UK and the Axis in response to the coup, but it does not directly spell out what triggers the coup the in the first place.

[The Land]

ORIGINAL: mdsmall

Will still there be a pro-Axis coup in Iraq once the Axis has units is within two hexes or El Alamein (or 5 hexes of Alexandria or Amman), if Iraq is already Axis aligned but not fully mobilized? The Strategy Guide is a bit unclear about this event. It describes various Decision Events for the UK and the Axis in response to the coup, but it does not directly spell out what triggers the coup the in the first place.

I don't believe so. This situation has occurred in one of my MP games and the event has not triggered in several turns - and I think it's a fairly high probability event.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing for the Axis, I'm unsure. It's pretty easy for the UK to conquer Iraq if they come into the war. It's arguably easier for the Axis to take Iraq by DoW at a time of their choosing and without British troops appearing there by event, than it is for them to hold /retake Iraq after the event fires.

[BillRunacre]

If Iraq is pro-Axis then DE 106 won't fire that triggers the UK imposing economic sanctions which can then lead to the Iraqi revolt.

So it's probably best that the Axis don't invest in diplomacy towards Iraq.

I will have a think about changing this, but for now the above is true.

[mdsmall]

Based on advice received in response to my previous thread about the value of diplomacy, I did invest in some chits against Iraq and succeeded in swinging it to the Axis, thus ending the 50MPPs in convoy income from Iraq to the U.K. My thinking is also that if the Allies does not use diplomacy to swing Iraq back into alignment with them, then the pro-Axis coup will not occur and DE106 will not fire and the UK will not receive the option of deploying a 10 strength corps in Basra.

This also raises the question if the British Army 10th Army will still deploy in Jerusalem in May 1941 if the pro-Axis coup has not occurred? If not, that would be a significant additional benefit for the Axis in using diplomacy to swing Iraq to their side.

While as The Land points out, it is relatively easy for the Allies to win back Iraq through a DOW and invading it either from Palestine or Persia (or even a long range Amphibious Assault from the UK or USA), all that takes money, units and time, all of which are in short supply for the UK in 1940. Denying the UK the chance to deploy a corps in Basra through DE106 and perhaps preventing the deployment of the 10th Army as well reduces the UK's early options for regaining control in Iraq.

[BillRunacre]

Looking at the script, the UK might still get the 10th Army as its main trigger is there being an Axis unit within 5-6 hexes of Alexandria.

[mdsmall]

Bill - you are correct. In my current game, it is early August 1941 and my Axis forces moved to positions within six hexes of Alexandria. Even though Iraq is still aligned with the Axis and there has been no pro-Axis coup, the British 10th Army just deployed in Jerusalem.