Deja Vu All Over Again - apbarog(J) vs OPilot(A)

[apbarog]

21 Jan 42

Bettys flew to Singapore and sank a tiny MMS and a tiny AMc. One was hit by flak. Some bombing in China, nothing major. The attack at Noumea is waiting for reinforcements on the way from Tulagi. The best news is that enemy subs didn't sink anything today. They are still patrolling Japanese ports though.

Loading at Midway continues. When complete, the covering carriers will move to the Marshalls to cover minor landings there. Then on to join the other carriers near Noumea. Then we step up the hunt for the US carriers. I want that fight to occur as soon as possible.

Aichi HA-60 engine was accelerated to 9/42. First technological advancement of the war.

[apbarog]

22 Jan 42

Japanese troops at Noumea are surprised to be bombarded by Allied cruisers.

Night Naval bombardment of Noumea at 115,160

Allied Ships
CA Canberra
CA Australia
CA Pensacola
CL Perth
CL Achilles
CL Leander
DD Le Triomphant
DD Vendetta
DD Stuart

Japanese ground losses:
77 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

These ships are a mix of ships that all start in the South Pacific. No indications of where the US carriers have been.

In the afternoon, Japanese carrier aircraft strike the Allied cruiser task force.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Isle of Pines at 115,165

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 73 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 17
B5N2 Kate x 54
D3A1 Val x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 10 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 3 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 4 damaged

Allied Ships
CA Australia, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1
CA Canberra, Torpedo hits 1
CL Leander
CA Pensacola
CL Achilles
CL Perth, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Stuart

and

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Isle of Pines at 115,165

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 16 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D3A1 Val x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A1 Val: 14 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
DD Vendetta
CA Australia
CA Canberra
CA Pensacola, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CL Leander

and

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Isle of Pines at 115,165

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 12 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D3A1 Val x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A1 Val: 8 damaged

Allied Ships
CL Leander
CA Australia
CA Pensacola, on fire
CL Achilles
CA Canberra

I found this very disappointing. This could have been so much more decisive. The only explanation for all of the missed bombs and torpedoes, and some planes not dropping at all, is weather. Severe storms. The pilots are the best of the best. No enemy CAP. Only the weather prevented the destruction of these ships.

[apbarog]

22 Jan 42

18 carrier Zeros swept Suva, finding 18 P-36As and 18 F2A-3s. It wasn't a fair fight, with 12 Mohawks and 6 Buffaloes shot down, for the loss of one Zero. No shipping was spotted in the area, so no naval bombers flew. The damaged enemy cruiser force did not move towards Suva, but it wasn't expected to.

Zamboanga is invaded but not attacked yet. Once more supply is unloaded, we'll attack. It will be the Sasebo 1st SNLF and III/81st Naval Guard against the II/43rd PS Inf Battalion.

Carriers, battleships and cruisers will retire from the Suva area and move northwest near Efate. All ships are in need of fuel. The carriers are in need of sorties. There are AKEs at Koumac, Luganville, Tulagi and Rabaul. Only Rabaul is bigger than a size 1 port. The carriers may need to go all the way back to Truk for sorties.

The Japanese carriers will leave the Midway area and head to Truk.

[apbarog]

A small Japanese unit landed at undefended Hollandia on New Guinea.

Japanese artillery attack at Bataan. Lots of casualties. Due to over-stacking? Seems like losses are increased in combat when over-stacked. I know that supply use goes up when over-stacked. It's just my observation that combat losses may also.

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 3045 troops, 244 guns, 224 vehicles, Assault Value = 653

Defending force 47877 troops, 553 guns, 194 vehicles, Assault Value = 1045

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 19 (6 destroyed, 13 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
672 casualties reported
Squads: 15 destroyed, 49 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Zamboanga will be attacked.

Japanese carriers are headed to Truk from both the Midway and Noumea areas.

[apbarog]

25 Jan 42

I had moved a couple of subs to the west side of Java, hoping to find tankers pulling oil from Oosthaven and Tjilatjap. The sub near Oosthaven was spotted immediately and had to move back to deeper water, and hasn't spotted any tankers. I-162 spotted tanker Aldegonda near Tjilatjap today and hit it with 2 torpedoes. One was a dud. The tanker was not loaded but may have sank after combat.

S-23 is at Midway. Destroyer Yugiri hit it with a depth charge in the shallow water. S-23 won't sink, but this will run it back to Pearl Harbor.

Nells bombed enemy troops east of Pegu. Japanese troops cross the river and win the fight.

Ground combat at 56,53 (near Pegu)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 8405 troops, 60 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 268

Defending force 3428 troops, 6 guns, 44 vehicles, Assault Value = 132

Japanese adjusted assault: 226

Allied adjusted defense: 43

Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), morale(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
539 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 63 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1351 casualties reported
Squads: 67 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 31 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Vehicles lost 10 (6 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
143rd Infantry Regiment
4th RTA Division

Defending units:
4th Burma Rifles Battalion
46th Indian Brigade

Japanese troops moved north out of Nanyang and attacked the strong defense in the woods on the way to Sian. Doesn't look like these troops are going to break through.

Ground combat at 85,44 (near Nanyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 36083 troops, 319 guns, 97 vehicles, Assault Value = 1118

Defending force 41522 troops, 205 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1175

Japanese adjusted assault: 678

Allied adjusted defense: 1819

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3420 casualties reported
Squads: 25 destroyed, 330 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 31 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 22 disabled
Guns lost 21 (2 destroyed, 19 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
940 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 110 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 11 (1 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Assaulting units:
1st Ind.Mixed Brigade
63rd Division
26th Division
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment

Defending units:
41st Chinese Corps
77th Chinese Corps
55th Chinese Corps
92nd Chinese Corps
38th Chinese Corps
4th Construction Regiment
2nd Group Army
22nd Group Army

Another good bombardment at Bataan. This will continue until Bataan runs out of supply. Japanese bombers are hitting daily to test the flak and stop fort building.

Japanese ground losses:
31 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
479 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 27 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Hollandia and Zamboanga were captured.

[apbarog]

26 Jan 42

OPilot continues to have good luck in the sub war. S-36 hit xAK Yahiko Maru at Port Moresby, sinking the ship after combat. The ship was unloading supply. Tarpon hit AO Ondo at Luganville, sinking the ship after combat. Ondo had some fuel loaded. It had refueled carriers near Koumac and had moved to Luganville to finish unloading. Tarpon also had a dud hit. I estimate that the US dud rate has been between 50% and 67%, far lower than what is expected.

Some revenge at Koumac, and a close call. S-37 was spotted there by the Yamashiro and Mutsu task force. The sub was spotted on the surface, and a gunfight began. The battleships hit the sub several times with the big guns. I was very worried, as a surfaced sub can fire off many torpedoes in the surface battle. Fortunately, S-37 fired no torpedoes. It may have been out of them. The sub was definitely sunk, becoming the first confirmed Allied sub lost. OPilot has been winning the sub war.

Japanese battleships bombarded Noumea. 269 casualties and minor base damage. The ground attack will resume when a reinforcing unit finishes the walk south from Koumac.

A Japanese cargo task force ran into ACM Colonel Harrison west of Bataan. The ACM is fleeing from Bataan. An xAK hit ACM with a shell.

[Lowpe]

Missing the oilers at Midway was a shame. I have done it more than once.[:)]

Having oilers there means he could simply have been setting up a sub base too...figure Allies are very familiar with IJN shipping routes.[;)] Or perhaps pondering an early strike on Hokkaido.

Speaking of shipping, how is draining of Hokkaido and Sakhalin going? Are they accumulating resources and oil daily still?

[apbarog]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Missing the oilers at Midway was a shame. I have done it more than once.[:)]

Having oilers there means he could simply have been setting up a sub base too...figure Allies are very familiar with IJN shipping routes.[;)] Or perhaps pondering an early strike on Hokkaido.

Speaking of shipping, how is draining of Hokkaido and Sakhalin going? Are they accumulating resources and oil daily still?

The oilers at Midway turned out to be YOs, not AOs, and some were sunk when my carriers approached. He definitely had tried to set up a sub base at Midway. I sank an AS there very early on.

I have a very efficient operation going on at Hokkaido and Sakhalin. OPilot had luck here too, early on, with subs, sinking some xAKs carrying resources. I'm now taking a very unexpected routing back to Ominato and other ports, while having a patrol boat ASW task force on the expected route south of Sakhalin. OPilot hasn't found my new routing so far.

My first air ASW units are moving to needed bases now.

[apbarog]

27 Jan 42

5 Japanese cruisers bombarded Noumea, doing light damage. Catalinas are spotting my task forces north of Koumac. The Cats could be at Noumea or at some other base in the Efate area.

OPilot has gone after an AV in Kuantan's port before, getting a bomb hit that did very minor damage. He went back again today, getting 2 bomb hits, and now AV Sagara Maru may burn up. Recon float planes were bases at Kuantan. My fighters are in great demand and I didn't prioritize Kuantan.

OPilot went after another target of opportunity, Koumac. LB-30s flew from somewhere in Australia to bomb the port. A bomb hit destroyer Shiokaze, causing heavy damage. No fighter cover here yet, with no airfield, and the carriers have retired towards Truk. OPilot was probably going after the AKEs that he knows are there.

S-36 sank AMc Kyokei Maru at Port Moresby. There's getting to be a graveyard of ships there from the S-boat scourge. O20 hit medium tanker Meizan Maru at Miri. The tanker was heavily damaged and had FIRE 99. With fuel still loaded, there's no chance of survival at Miri, a size 2 port. The tanker is scuttled. Meizan Maru had just returned from taking fuel from Miri to Babeldaob, around the north of Luzon for safety.

In a month and a half of war, the displayed ships have been sunk by Allied subs. Note the number of ships sunk by subs with "defective" torpedoes. A good number of those ships sunk were carrying troops too. It's felt brutal. I don't know if he's over-achieving or if I am just being too sensitive to the losses. I feel, as the Japanese, that my early game needs to be flawless, and every loss hurts. I expect to lose everything later in the war, but not now.

[EDIT: Forgot to mention that damaged xAP Kashima Maru made it to Rabaul and was unloading troops when it sank there. It had made it to safety, and would have survived if it could have disbanded into port, but it needed to unload troops first. The ship had been torpedoed at or near Port Moresby.]

[adarbrauner]

Was the tanker escorted?
Are you running your supply shipping in escorted convoys?

[apbarog]

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

Was the tanker escorted?
Are you running your supply shipping in escorted convoys?

Yes, the tanker had an escort. All of my supply ships are running with escorts. I do recall losing an xAK somewhere at a size 1 port, where the ship had to separate from the task force to be able to dock. It was then torpedoed, not having an escort at the time. But generally, yes, I use escorts as a rule.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

27 Jan 42


In a month and a half of war, the displayed ships have been sunk by Allied subs. Note the number of ships sunk by subs with "defective" torpedoes. A good number of those ships sunk were carrying troops too. It's felt brutal. I don't know if he's over-achieving or if I am just being too sensitive to the losses. I feel, as the Japanese, that my early game needs to be flawless, and every loss hurts. I expect to lose everything later in the war, but not now.

[EDIT: Forgot to mention that damaged xAP Kashima Maru made it to Rabaul and was unloading troops when it sank there. It had made it to safety, and would have survived if it could have disbanded into port, but it needed to unload troops first. The ship had been torpedoed at or near Port Moresby.]

That is probably a bit above normal losses...any ship that has supplies when hit is likely to go down to one torpedo eventually.

Fighting Allied subs is an ever present struggle and you have to do it holistically, with night and day naval and asw patrols, ASW task forces, decoy task forces, I even use short range subs. It is one great DL struggle early on till you get decent pilots across the board.

Early on, I often create one really good ASW squadron with hand picked pilots in Lilly, or Helen or Sally. Then fly it to hotspots. Eventually one good squadron becomes two and then three etc. If you get a large squadron of Jakes flying night naval search to support the bombers you can really tamp down on Allied subs.

Of course it is hard to protect those amphibious invasions early on...

[Bif1961]

The S-Boats MK-10 torps were also defective but to a lesser degree as the problem was they were running too deeply, not as deep as the MK-14. If your vessels were heavy laden they would be lower in the water and more prone to being hit by the MK-10. You did mention the damaged ones not on the sunk list, by the MK-14s but a true dud rate would include them as well. The MK-14 dud rate can only be counted against those that hit their targets and did not explode, a major problem was that they ran too deep and the magnetic trigger, meant to explode when the torpedo was under the vessel didn't work either. When the torpedo actually hits a vessel and doesn't explode is only one of the 3 causes why the MK-14 failed. So many of the misses are also do to the MK-14 torpedo's many and varies short comings.

[apbarog]

28 Jan 42

Yamashiro and Mutsu bombarded Noumea, damaging a couple of Catalinas and doing very minor base damage.

Another fiasco over Singapore. I sweep and sweep and sweep here, and the enemy keeps their fighters on the ground. I try to bomb them and the bombing is incredibly ineffectual, having to fly very high to avoid very heavy flak, and have weather interfere often. I switched to putting CAP over my forces over Johore Baru, as the troops are about to cross into Singapore, and my Sallys get massacred over Singapore as the enemy finally puts CAP up. Very frustrating. I've never seen Buffalos perform so well as OPilot has used them. 22 Buffalos and 8 Hurricanes were on CAP. 46 Sallys with 30 Oscars arrived at 20000 feet. Many bombers lost and an Oscar lost. No enemy planes downed. Barely scratched the runway. Then 18 more Sallys arrived unescorted, with predictable results. Overall, 26 Sallys and an Oscar were lost. To Buffalos. I have 45 Zeros at Johore Baru, but almost every time I swept with them, the enemy sat on the ground. Hats off to OPilot for frustrating the heck out of me.

He's played the same game at Bataan, sitting the fighters almost every day. But at Bataan, my bombers get a little more damage on the airbase, and the flak isn't as heavy as Singapore.

LB-30s from Darwin, most probably, flew to Sorong to bomb the port. Nothing there. The LB-30s had hit Koumac before this. They are moving around looking for long-range targets of opportunity.

The crossing into Singapore will occur next. This is a very average approach to Singapore, getting there at the end of January. Landing at Kuantan didn't speed up the process like a landing at Mersing would have.

[apbarog]

29 Jan 42

Japanese cruiser force bombarded Tanna, but none of the enemy ships seen there yesterday were there. The port was damaged, but nothing else. No ships in port, no planes. No troops hit. Nothing appeared to be there. On the way back to Koumac, S-40 hit light cruiser Sendai with a torpedo, causing heavy damage. Then S-40 attacked again, hitting heavy cruiser Kumano with a torpedo. In the same hex, S-27 attacked, hit Sendai with 2 more torpedoes, sinking the ship. The S-boats have been incredibly effective for OPilot.

Then the worst. Enemy carriers appeared south of Noumea. They hit Japanese ships at Koumac. Koumac doesn't have an airfield yet, so no CAP.

BB Kongo, Bomb hits 7, on fire
CA Kumano, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CA Suzuya
BB Haruna, Bomb hits 2
CL Jintsu, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Mikuma, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Nowaki, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage

and

CA Mikuma, Bomb hits 1, on fire

and

CA Kumano, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
CA Suzuya, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
CA Mikuma, on fire

In the afternoon, they came again.

BB Kongo, Bomb hits 2
BB Mutsu, Bomb hits 4
xAK China Maru, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Mikuma, Bomb hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Takao
BB Yamashiro, Bomb hits 4
xAK Anzan Maru, Bomb hits 4, on fire
xAK Mitu Maru, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Maikaze
BB Haruna

and

DD Akikaze
xAK Syokyu Maru, Bomb hits 6, and is sunk
TK Nihon Maru, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Ryoka Maru, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires

Days ago I made the call to send the Japanese carriers back to Truk for fuel and more importantly, torpedoes and mission sorties. I knew there was risk keeping ships at Koumac, but after my carriers damaged enemy cruisers south of Noumea about a week ago, I didn't think OPilot would risk running into them again. I was wrong. My early plan in the South Pacific was to push hard early and force a fight with the carriers. I got what I wanted and wasn't ready for it. 2 light cruisers, a heavy cruiser, a destroyer, a tanker and 3 xAKs were sunk. The surviving ships have a chance to escape. Most are heading northwest, and will move 6 hexes away from Koumac. The AKEs are going with them. Will OPilot press his advantage or not? All 6 big Japanese carriers are arriving at Truk today: 3 from the Midway operation, 3 from Noumea. They will rearm and refuel and head back south. I will hunt down the US carriers. I may go to Auckland to do so.

Japanese troops cross into Singapore. It was bloody.

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 66779 troops, 710 guns, 465 vehicles, Assault Value = 2056

Defending force 50616 troops, 586 guns, 341 vehicles, Assault Value = 876

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 1819

Allied adjusted defense: 1563

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
8257 casualties reported
Squads: 19 destroyed, 304 disabled
Non Combat: 17 destroyed, 89 disabled
Engineers: 38 destroyed, 86 disabled
Guns lost 64 (1 destroyed, 63 disabled)
Vehicles lost 81 (13 destroyed, 68 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3065 casualties reported
Squads: 40 destroyed, 177 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 131 disabled
Engineers: 17 destroyed, 28 disabled
Guns lost 114 (40 destroyed, 74 disabled)
Vehicles lost 22 (6 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Assaulting units:
18th Division
15th Ind Engineer Regiment
23rd Ind Engineer Regiment
5th Division
1st Tank Regiment
14th Tank Regiment
4th Ind Engineer Regiment
Imperial Guards Division
41st Infantry Regiment
2nd Division
3rd Mortar Battalion
5th Mortar Battalion
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
20th AA Regiment
1st RF Gun Battalion
25th Army
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
31st Field AA Battalion

Defending units:
8th Indian Brigade
2nd Gordons Battalion
1st Mysore Battalion
5/14th Punjab Battalion
3rd Cavalry Regiment
22nd Australian Brigade
2/17 Dogra Battalion
1st Manchester Battalion
11th Indian Division
2nd Loyal Battalion
22nd Indian Brigade
27th Australian Brigade
2nd Malay Battalion
3rd SSVF Battalion
SSVF Brigade
1st Malay Battalion
12th Indian Brigade
109th RN Base Force
Singapore Base Force
1st HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
113th RAF Adv Base Force
AHQ Far East
3rd Heavy AA Regiment
Malayan Air Wing
Singapore Fortress
24th NZ Pioneer Coy
2nd ISF Base Force
111th RAF Adv Base Force
1st Indian Heavy AA Regiment
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
III Indian Corps
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
109th RAF Adv Base Force
112th RAF Adv Base Force
110th RAF Adv Base Force
Malaya Army
5th Field Regiment

Troops will rest a few days and then continue the attack.

OPilot reported having the synch bug with this turn. His replay showed far less damage to Japanese ships at Koumac and far fewer Japanese troops lost at Singapore. Needless to say, he was happy to see the actual results.

No one knows for sure what causes the synch bug. We've noticed it a few times in a few years. When we've had it, it was always with a "big" turn. During the replay, I never hit the escape key, but I frequently hit the Done button to speed up the replay. OPilot said that his replay matched the combat report until the first naval air strike. I know that I hit the Done button when I saw the massacre that was about to take place. My new hypothesis is that the synch bug can occur in this situation. I've hit the Done button all the time for bombardments and air strikes on land targets. No synch bugs spotted with that. Could it be that the Done button on a naval air strike is a cause? Maybe.

It's also possible that we have the synch bug more often on less significant turns, and it just isn't noticed.

But that's my current theory. I will not be hitting the Done button during naval air strikes for the rest of the game. We'll see if and when the bug occurs again.

Rough turn. Discouraging. Things have just been working out for OPilot. He had decent weather for his strikes today. My earlier carrier strike did not. His subs are doing incredible work. He's on a hot streak. He's had good luck, and he's been bold at the right times. I need to change the tempo and put the hurt on the US carriers while I have superiority. I plan to do so very soon.

[apbarog]

Thinking about things, I think I may have misjudged my opponent. In the past 2 years, if I had to describe OPilot's play as the Japanese, I'd say it was solid but tentative. I figured that his play as the Allies, early in the war, would be at least as tentative as his play as the Japanese. I think that was wrong. OPilot had much more experience as an Allied player than as a Japanese player. I think his play has been, and will be, much more aggressive as the Allies, based on what I've seen so far. Bringing his 2 or 3 or 4 carriers to Noumea this early in the war isn't tentative. Not when the Japanese carriers had just been there. Even if he was willing to trade carriers, which I think is a valid Allied approach, that is not a tentative move.

I will try to make this work for me when I have all 6 Japanese carriers together. My whole South Pacific plan was not to conquer specific bases, but to draw in the Allied carriers for an early carrier battle. I think that will still happen.

[Bif1961]

To increase your odds some you can add the Ryujo to your mix bringing it up to 7 carriers, since it has 48 planes and speed at least equal to the Kaga. So you don't slow down and you gain 2/3rds of a Japanese fleet carrier. The more torpedo planes you can bring to the fight the better and also more fighters and sorties. I also think including the four fast Japanese BBs would be wise to be a bomb magnet and additional AAA and fast surface threat. A hunting you want to go so add arrows to your quiver.

[apbarog]

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

To increase your odds some you can add the Ryujo to your mix bringing it up to 7 carriers, since it has 48 planes and speed at least equal to the Kaga. So you don't slow down and you gain 2/3rds of a Japanese fleet carrier. The more torpedo planes you can bring to the fight the better and also more fighters and sorties. I also think including the four fast Japanese BBs would be wise to be a bomb magnet and additional AAA and fast surface threat. A hunting you want to go so add arrows to your quiver.

I will use Ryujo in this manner, but not quite yet. I sent its trained fighter pilots to the reserves at the beginning of the war, and I'm training new fighter pilots on it now at Saipan. Once they have acceptable air-to-air skill, Ryujo will join the fast carriers. The new pilots will gain experience flying daily CAP.

30 Jan 42

S-boats near Koumac don't hit anything today. That is notable. The valuable ships went northwest, while some patrol boats went northeast towards Luganville. The S-boats were northeast.

Playing the Allies now instead of the Japanese, it's my turn to be on the other side of the heavy bomber stick.

Morning Air attack on Koumac , at 113,156

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 8 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Allied aircraft
LB-30 Liberator x 3

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
DD Shiokaze, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
AG Mamiya, Bomb hits 1
ACM Fumi Maru #2, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
TK Toa Maru, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
TK Gen'yo Maru, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires

Japanese ground losses:
20 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Port hits 3

Just 3 old bombers pretty much cleared out the port. Shiokaze had to be scuttled. One tanker will limp away to the northwest. The other tanker is joining up with a few surviving ships, including 2 ACMs, and will make decent speed to the northwest. Seeing an ACM sunk isn't terrible. I had 3 of them there, and they could only be there for one reason: to tend a minefield there. OPilot knows that when he sees them, there are mines. In this game, however, I converted more small ships to ACMs than I really need, and I'm using them as dummys. No mines at Koumac, but OPilot hasn't tried to bombard there yet, so maybe the ruse is working.

There is a heavily guarded enemy transport force at Noumea now. No increase of the number of enemy units or troops yet. If anything, there's a decrease. It would be a nasty trick to pick up a unit and land it at La Foa, cutting off my units from Koumac. I have a naval guard unit headed to Noumea and it just got to La Foa. I will leave it there until it can be replaced by another, smaller unit. Cutting off my troops at Noumea would be a brilliant move. Can't have that. No sign of the enemy carriers today, and no enemy bombardment of Noumea. Could the enemy be evacuating troops instead of reinforcing?

Japanese artillery bombardments continue at Bataan and Singapore. They'll continue at Bataan until the enemy runs out of supply. They'll continue at Singapore until troop fatigue and disruption come down, which should be a few more days.

6 Japanese carriers have rearmed and refueled at Truk. They head south.

[apbarog]

31 Jan 42

Pickerel had a dud hit on tanker San Luis Maru near Rabaul.

Japanese bombers hit Kweilin but found 3 H81s there. Must have been a LRCAP going on nearby. 4 Lilys, 2 Sonias and 2 Idas shot down. An H-81 destroyed on the ground and some moderate airbase damage done.

3 LB-30s again hit Koumac's port, but found nothing there today. Tanker Genyo Maru was the most damaged ship to leave, and it added 36 FLOT damage today. It'll probably sink in the next turn or two.

Japanese attacked at Kaifeng in China, getting 1 to 1 odds. 498 Japanese lost and 1531 Chinese lost. This hex will be won soon. There is no retreat available.

Japanese forces crossed the river into Pegu and it was rough. I don't remember what starts in Burma but OPilot may have reinforced Burma from Ceylon or India. This was tougher than expected.

Ground combat at Pegu (55,53)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 20958 troops, 210 guns, 14 vehicles, Assault Value = 610

Defending force 22596 troops, 166 guns, 141 vehicles, Assault Value = 784

Japanese adjusted assault: 261

Allied adjusted defense: 321

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2551 casualties reported
Squads: 115 destroyed, 78 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 21 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 24 (12 destroyed, 12 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
668 casualties reported
Squads: 21 destroyed, 85 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 8 disabled

Assaulting units:
112th Infantry Regiment
33rd Division
7th RTA Division
15th Army
55th Mountain Gun Regiment
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
45th Indian Brigade
46th Indian Brigade
44th Indian Brigade
1st Burma Division
17th Indian Division

A fresh regiment has left Bangkok and will reinforce Pegu eventually. The Japanese troops are sure to get pounded in the clear terrain, and may get bombarded by sea. Lots of enemy fighters spotted at Rangoon now. Going to be a bit ugly at Pegu I'm afraid, until Singapore is conquered.

[apbarog]

1 Feb 42

Cuttlefish missed DD Sazanami near Yokohama. Finally have some air ASW at Yokohama. Multiple enemy subs south.

Sturgeon missed DMS W-8 at Tulagi. DD Yugao hit Sturgeon with a couple of depth charges in the shallow water.

Sallys bombed Sian's heavy industry and got a few hits. No CAP. Keeping the enemy honest and having to defend more locations.

Bataan is bombed every day. Minor base damage. Burning enemy supply. Same for Malaybalay on Mindanao. The enemy has moved all of its surviving units to the mountain hex of Malaybalay. I think they are already out of supply. As I don't want to commit major units to Mindanao, I will surround Malaybalay and close all of the hex sides and just pin the enemy there. It will become a bomber training target. OPilot will use the mountain hexes as I did against him last game. I have reason to believe that he's already preparing Bandoeng on Java, and I'm nowhere close to going there yet. That will be another surround and isolate operation for me.

About a dozen Blens tried to bomb Japanese troops at Singapore for the first time. I had just put some Oscars on LRCAP over Singapore from Johore Baru. 12 Blens were shot down. Japanese ground forces will attack today, and hope for a better result than the river crossing.

Continuing to win the fight near Kaifeng. 3 to 1 odds and twice the enemy casualties.